Honorverse Top Ten Tacticians, Strategists

ThinksMarkedly wrote:

cthia wrote:That wasn't her only option. She could have sat on them instead of wasting them firing on a target which is out of range. But since she was not out of effective range, then I can at least understand the logic to render some damage to Fifth Fleet plus give Chin something else to occupy her mind, giving the battered Third Fleet a reprieve.

But, Beatrice was formulated out of desperation and predicated on the bet that Apollo was in short supply.

Firing limited weapons when you are out of range --- further compounding her mistake --- would have been irresponsible. Her launch does not imply limited superweapons, upon the knowledge of an impending chess match. Given the parameters of their intel on Apollo's range.

If it's irresponsible but works and saves your system and wins the war, was it really irresponsible?

In my mind, irresponsible and downright negligent would be to do nothing when she could do something. Third Fleet is getting hammered at this point. If she fires 82k missiles and this point and Chin blinks, she's won. Chin could think she was in range because she fired.

Even if she was out of range but fired one third of her load out, she still has time to roll enough pods before getting into range, by which time Chin has to leave anyway. I'll agree with your earlier post that once Honor showed up, she won the war. Considering Apollo production is picking up, sparing ammunition is not a concern to her.

Honor could have done the responsible thing and made a beeline for the target already caught in the system's web, deep inside the limit.

She was nearly 40 minutes away from the previously-established range. Third Fleet and a lot of spacers would have died by then.

This battle is for all the marbles. It isn't a raid to destroy infrastructure. The RHN must seize the system to stop the inevitable. And Honor has to rid the system of these vermin. If Chin turns to trashing infrastructure, she has already admitted defeat.

No, she doesn't need to exterminate the RHN. She only has to make them go away for long enough. Everyone involved knows that the Apollo production is picking up, so the Alliance wins if both of these conditions are true: enough time passes and they have sufficient platforms to fire from. If only the time condition comes true, then the Alliance can't lose because Manticore, Grayson and New Berlin can't be taken out, but won't immediately win either.

Shannon Foraker might have something to say about matching the technology, given enough time.

And besides, it is a spoiling raid a secondary objective. If the RHN could take out the Apollo production facilities and the Python Lump, they buy themselves a lot of time.

Hold the system. Destroy as many vermin as possible.

Hold the system is the primary objective. Destroying the enemy is tertiary. Saving her people is the secondary, and Third Fleet is included as "hers," as are the LAC crews that are going to attack Second Fleet, plus the spacers aboard the hulks of Home Fleet that SAR can't get to until the shooting stops. Equally is protecting the infrastructure.

Destroying the enemy is tertiary because the expertise to build more Apollos and to man ships is retained. Remember the Python Lump is coming and all those brand-new Invictus ships will need crews, preferably to hit the ground running.

Chin could not be a sore loser and destroy infrastructure. That would be inviting tit for tat when the Salamander eventually arrives in the Haven system. And it wasn't the plan. Seize the system and stop Apollo from showing up at Nouveau Paris is imperative.

Destroying military infrastructure is fair in war, whether it's tit-for-tat or not. Honor did it to Sol because the Mandarins had ordered it on innocent, neutral and non-belligerent systems, to the point of causing Eridani Edict violations. She had to teach them a lesson. If the RHN had managed to destroy some of Manticore's war-producing capability, but the Alliance still won, Honor wouldn't need to destroy Haven's. There's no need to teach a lesson.

On the other hand, if the Alliance determined that Haven was too much of a threat to retain its shipbuilding industry, they'd take it and scuttle those orbital industries whether Chin attacked anything in Manticore or not.

The point is: so long as Chin is not committing atrocities, she can't think too much (or at all) about what her escalation can mean.

Honor would not have wasted time on Chin. Her immediate concern was the fly who crossed the hyper limit, trapped in her web. It would have been the hard call.

Completely disagree, with a capital C. Second Fleet was not in a threatening position right now, but Fifth was. Moreover, Third Fleet's surviving ships were in position to intercept Second, so if Tourville's threat could be answered by relieving Third.

Because she was drinking gin. It really didn't matter if it was a bluff. Although she should have quickly came to the conclusion that it was not.

But it didn't matter because the strategic considerations of Beatrice at that point had been flushed down the toilet. There is an uncaged animal on the loose and she outranges you, still, with her superweapons.

I agree. Chin should have come to the correct conclusion sooner. And even if she wasn't sure it was a bluff, the worst thing she could do is wait and THEN hyper out. We can list many reasons why she might have done that, but that doesn't make it any less bad.

Exactly! And perhaps you can see now why I said that Honor showing that she had superweapons to burn factors into it.

Indeed, and Terekhov did the same at Spindle, when he detonated 12,000 Apollo missiles short of the SLN fleet.

Thanks for pointing out the errata that always seems to find its way into publishing. I have already edited the original post. I agree that arrogance played a part. But I think it was also pride in her beloved gorilla.

Isn't misplaced or unofunded pride arrogance?

Which is my entire argument. Once Eighth Fleet and that damn pesky Salamander showed up uncaged and untrapped with Tourville caught too far in-system, the war is lost.

Everyone agrees. So did Chin, actually.

In any case, it doesn't look like it was deliberation. She didn't put two and two together quickly enough: as we said earlier in this thread, there was no other formation of the size that showed up other than Eighth Fleet. Whether Honor was leading it or she was out-of-place somewhere else is immaterial.

Back to banking on the Salamander making a mistake with a surplus of superweapons and still with the range advantage?

No.

My point is that if Chin could have considered it a bluff or wondered if Eighth Fleet had been restocked enough with Apollos to outfight her and Tourvile, or any of a number of other things that could eventually lead to the RHN winning, she should have stuck around to see it through. Changing her mind in the middle would make sense if she got new information to reevaluate the decision (like, for example, being told that those oncoming missiles were indeed behaving like Apollos).

But that's not what happened. The delay was not deliberation.

I read that, and it is what I was banking on. But to be fair to you, was that calculation done with Apollo's actual range? If so, Tourville may have a chance.

I remember calculating what would have happened if she had chased him straight across the system and the calculation was that she would reach 75 million km well before the far side's hyperlimit, even from a standing start.

However, those calculations did have an assumption that the far hyperlimit was the best option. It's possible that wasn't the case, because Tourville could be in a position where his closest hyperlimit was not on an approach to Honor, either moving at right angles or more than 90°. Then there's also the issue that it may not be responsible to chase after him and leave the planets uncovered.

Shannon_Foraker wrote:Where is the thread with the calculation?

cthia wrote:ThinksMarkedly, my last post was all alternate reality. You seem to be mixing both scenarios. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Let me condense my argument. Honor rolled a third of her Apollo pods. She could not afford to waste a third of her total pod loadout on a bluff.

It would have been a bluff if those pods are going to be no more effective than MDMs. As someone said, Chin could have easily shook that salvo off. That would have been a win for Chin by coaxing Honor into wasting a third of her total superweapons as MDMs.

What would have happened if Chin was right and she shook that salvo off?

Now what is Honor going to do? Waste another third as MDMs? That would make Honor as stupid as that idiot facing Meghan Petersen. Which would have been a good strategy, you see. Get Eighth Fleet to waste Apollo birds by using them as MDMs. Heck, Honor can waste her entire pod loadout that way, just on Chin.

Continuing on. Chin knew as well as Honor what the tactical situation was. Honor isn't going to waste Apollo birds as MDMs with an impending chess match with both 2nd and 5th Fleets following.

Again, Honor could not afford to burn limited Apollo pods by using them as MDMs. Is that what Chin thought? That she would? Chin definitely knew the number of missiles racing after her. CIC always provides those numbers. Even if the unanticipated 31 extra ships skewed the guestimate, Honor would not have wasted a third of her total loadout on Chin. Even to save Third Fleet. She couldn't afford to, knowing she would have to face both fleets in a chess match with only around 65 mkm to play with.

Chin may not have figured out that it was a third of her loadout, but it should have been obvious that it was a huge percentage of.

I agree that it would have been great if it had caused Chin to flinch and saved Third Fleet. I am saying that Honor could not afford to burn limited superweapons that way if they only had the range of Haven's intel, upon receipt of an inevitable chess match against both fleets, which will surely ensue.

cthia wrote:Because Chin, and the entire Havenite Fleet were operating under the assumption that Apollo was limited. You keep mixing the two scenarios.

Under the assumptions she was operating under, Chin should have immediately micro jumped towards Honor.

Rearming wouldn't have played a part in it. The battle was to be settled on the spot. Why on earth would the Havenites be worrying about the RMN rearming? They have limited missiles. And the battle joined is the one for all the marbles. Not some rearmed, resumed battle later.

If the missiles aren't limited, then that means that that Alpha launch are all Apollo missiles. And they will be akillin.

Apparently Chin thought so too, before she died. That is proof positive that she should have hypered out and hightailed it back to Haven. Or at least towards Honor.

cthia wrote:<snip>

Another question. When an enemy launches at you with a long ballistic phase, any ballistic phase actually, why can't the target continue maneuvering where the missiles should not be able to acquire a target that has moved so far. I suppose this comes right back to the argument that missiles cannot turn on a dime.

cthia wrote:Question. Could Chin have had her fleet go ahead and spin up their hypergenerators and all, in preparation to hyper out, and cancelled it if Honor's salvo was a bluff? Say, when the salvo's drives came back online, they could hyper out then. Would her fleet have had time? What are any downsides? Being prepared to hyper out doesn't hinder missile defense in any way does it?

Another question. When an enemy launches at you with a long ballistic phase, any ballistic phase actually, why can't the target continue maneuvering where the missiles should not be able to acquire a target that has moved so far. I suppose this comes right back to the argument that missiles cannot turn on a dime.

Theemile wrote:Ship do maneuver, and have moved outside the detection window of the missiles. Even single drive missiles had this vulnerability (not using their onboard search sensors until very short range), and could easily lose lock on a particular ship which had maneuvered outside the programmed location.

But... after a ballistic segment, The missiles don't re-engage sensors right on top of their targets, they fire their systems back up millions of KMs back (within limits of the sensors - Havenite sector missile sensors have gotten better and better throughout the wars) . What we've seen repeatedly in the books, is some missiles loose lock entirely, some lose lock on their original target and pick another target further back in the formation, or choose those targets with the worst ECM.

A good tac officer will know the "window" of his missile's sensors and make sure the movement basket of an opposing formation doesn't leave his missile's sensor window.