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Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Dilandu   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:14 am

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The E wrote:
Is it time to panic? No. But it definitely is time to stop being an idiot and do what you can to limit the spread of this bug, and it's just not enough to issue recommendations and ask people to please do what's necessary. The quarantine and isolation need to be enforced under threat of penalty; if this can be done early enough and complete enough, the immediate crisis can be over sooner rather than later.


Interesting to point, that face recognition software of street cameras became very helpful in controlling the quarantine violation both in China and Russia. So, it seems that in near future that kind of tracking would became mundane even in democratic countries.
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Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by jchilds   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:20 am

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C. Everett Koop. C. Everett Koop. C. Everett Koop!

Well, that didn't work. :P
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:33 am

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jchilds wrote:C. Everett Koop. C. Everett Koop. C. Everett Koop!

Well, that didn't work. :P


He was a bit of a character, wasn't he? One of the Reagan administratiion's more pleasant surprises...

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:48 am

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Dilandu wrote:
The E wrote:
Is it time to panic? No. But it definitely is time to stop being an idiot and do what you can to limit the spread of this bug, and it's just not enough to issue recommendations and ask people to please do what's necessary. The quarantine and isolation need to be enforced under threat of penalty; if this can be done early enough and complete enough, the immediate crisis can be over sooner rather than later.


Interesting to point, that face recognition software of street cameras became very helpful in controlling the quarantine violation both in China and Russia. So, it seems that in near future that kind of tracking would became mundane even in democratic countries.


Some of that going on in Sioux Falls, about 40 miles north of here. They are using cameras to identify traffic violators on some of the busier streets. Hope it doesn't become widespread. That would be real red meat for the right wing noise machine...

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Arol   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:26 am

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Even as a layman it’s fairly easy to arrive at the conclusion that there are two main prevailing modes of thoughts regarding the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
The one that most people accept is that it is the greatest threat to all our physical wellbeing; not to mention our financial stability, in our time.
The minority opinion has it that it is a media fed kneejerk panic, over what is simply a rather vicious version of the “common cold”!
The minority view did have some very powerful proponents, including Trump in the US and Johnson in GB, but now that reality; as well as a rising body-count has made itself felt, even these two egomaniacs seemed to have changed their stance.
For those interested there is a sort of litmus test that can be used to test these two viewpoints, simply look at Denmark vs. Sweden.
In the one; here in Denmark, the country went into a virtual lock-down with all that entails; School, financial and government establishments closures etc., as well as border closures, all within less than a week the moment that the number of infected rose by around a hundred a day.
In the other; Sweden, the tone is different, this in spite of a rising number of infected and death count. No closures, no serious attempts to limit people congregating, just the same palliative counseling to observe hand hygiene and to be aware of physical symptoms. Hell and dammit, last night on our news channel there was TV-clip from an after-ski party over there with over a couple of hundred people attending.
As someone who is spending around 23 hours a day in lock-down, it will be interesting to see who comes out of this crisis in best shape.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:32 pm

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It is hard to say how it will all work out. It seems obvious that lockdown isn't a sustainable idea for very long. Shut down the economy and you are shutting down peoples' ability to sustain themselves. We're already looking at a fairly sharp recession here. Add in a mix of possible famine and starvation, things get dicey in a hurry.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Imaginos1892   » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:11 pm

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The E wrote:Covid-19 has a hospitalization rate of between 10 and 20% of all cases.

Were that the case, all of the world's hospitals would have been packed to the rafters two months ago.

Hospitals are not, in fact, packed to the rafters, therefore your claim of '10 and 20%' is, at best, a gross exaggeration.

This ‘pandemic’ has been ‘raging’ worldwide, unnoticed, for at least four months while the Chinese denied its existence. Had there ever been a time to panic, that time is long since past. They're locking down the barn after the doors stood wide open for months.

Every word coming out of China is a lie. Start with that, and carry on.
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There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:04 am

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Imaginos1892 wrote:
The E wrote:Covid-19 has a hospitalization rate of between 10 and 20% of all cases.

Were that the case, all of the world's hospitals would have been packed to the rafters two months ago.

Hospitals are not, in fact, packed to the rafters, therefore your claim of '10 and 20%' is, at best, a gross exaggeration.

This ‘pandemic’ has been ‘raging’ worldwide, unnoticed, for at least four months while the Chinese denied its existence. Had there ever been a time to panic, that time is long since past. They're locking down the barn after the doors stood wide open for months.

Every word coming out of China is a lie. Start with that, and carry on.


Wow, I think we've found someone who has decided even Fox News is a radical leftist outfit and is relying entirely on OANN for their information... because that read like it was written by someone who has spent the last month in a very deep cave cut off from all contact with reality.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by The E   » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:07 am

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Imaginos1892 wrote:
The E wrote:Covid-19 has a hospitalization rate of between 10 and 20% of all cases.

Were that the case, all of the world's hospitals would have been packed to the rafters two months ago.

Hospitals are not, in fact, packed to the rafters, therefore your claim of '10 and 20%' is, at best, a gross exaggeration.


Those are the official numbers issued by the Robert Koch Institute. They do note, however, that they are preliminary and not fully reliable since, for obvious reasons, asymptomatic cases aren't tested as thoroughly as patients who do exhibit symptoms. They also note that some chinese studies show hospitalization rates of around 2%; how reliable that is I cannot honestly judge.

Regardless of what the actual number of hospitalizations will end up being in the end though, we do know that shutting down public life hard and fast can stop this bug in its tracks. Is it not preferable to endure a few weeks of hardship when the alternative is a widespread outbreak?

This ‘pandemic’ has been ‘raging’ worldwide, unnoticed, for at least four months while the Chinese denied its existence. Had there ever been a time to panic, that time is long since past. They're locking down the barn after the doors stood wide open for months.


For months, eh?
The first recorded case that everyone firmly agrees on was diagnosed at the beginning of December (chinese authorities suspect that there may have been at least one case somewhere in November). It became serious enough in Wuhan to report on on New Year's; right as people in China started to travel en masse. If there is a case to be made for chinese authorities to not have done enough, it is in this small time period in December, when the number of known cases was in the low hundreds right before a large, annual migration as people travel to and from their homes to celebrate new year's with their families.

However, by that point, it was likely already too late to really stop the virus from spreading. The first case diagnosed in the US was in mid-January; it is highly likely that the virus had already spread largely invisibly for a few weeks before that (Wuhan is a large travel hub).
By January 22nd, the Trump administration was already downplaying things hard. In February, the first entry restrictions on people who had been in Wuhan and Hubei province in the preceding two weeks went up; while Trump claimed that "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China" on February 2nd, that turned out to be blatantly false.

Point being, claiming that chinese authorities knew about COVID-19 "for months" and did nothing is you either lying or not caring about the real sequence of events.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:30 am

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The E wrote:
Regardless of what the actual number of hospitalizations will end up being in the end though, we do know that shutting down public life hard and fast can stop this bug in its tracks. Is it not preferable to endure a few weeks of hardship when the alternative is a widespread outbreak?


The question is, will it be "a few weeks"? What would prevent it from flaring up the instant we start to relax?

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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