Topic Actions

Topic Search

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Trials

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by Julia Minor   » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:46 pm

Julia Minor
Lieutenant Commander

Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:58 pm

FriarBob wrote:
Finally, while a bit unrelated I recently remembered something and need to bring it up. There is yet one bit of proof that we know the IC does in fact have available that we all seem to have forgotten about: the video evidence that Merlin and Nimue used to break Clyntahn. They have an actual recording of Shan-Wei arguing with Bedard and Langhorn and the supposed "good Archangels" using names of places that never existed... if, that is, the Writ is actually true. Which of course it isn't.

Is that info contained in Shueler's Testimony? Probably actually NOT, since it's a book and written testimony instead of video evidence. But there IS outright proof available to the IC. That may well be the only proof they have, though I highly doubt that. But they DO have absolute and inarguable proof, proof so good it even convinced Clyntahn.


As I recall, Clyntahn knew the video was genuine because he'd seen similar video footage in the Inquisition's secret archives. Presumably Rayno would have had a similar reaction if he'd been captured alive and shown the footage; he should have had the security clearance to get into those archives himself.

The rest of the Temple hierarchy? Of course they would recognize the faces of the Archangels from the artwork in every single church on the planet. But after the Inquisition shot their very own Jihad in the foot by keeping secrets from the rest of the CoGA, I can't picture them sharing those secret and sacred videos of the Archangels with non-Schulerite vicars. Without that prior familiarity, it would be too easy for a repeat showing to be dismissed as simple (and heretical) theater instead of reality.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by Dilandu   » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:29 pm

Dilandu
Admiral

Posts: 2004
Joined: Sat May 07, 2011 12:44 pm
Location: Russia

wingfield wrote:1. Whether or not the possible energy source under (or around/elsewhere) Schueler's church is dormant for centuries, it has to wake up to do its assessment of what has happened while it slept and what is going on in the present. Then it needs to be in fully operational mode to perform its tricks in March 916. On both occasions it would be detectable, unless it too had a stealth capacity.

2. Merlin's scanners would be of EXACTLY the same calibre and quality of those owned by the Temple, both being Federation technology. Given the range that the SNARCs have had to cover, they would need to be of that same high quality, as well as being able to be stealthed.

3. As to it being under the Temple, that is a fascinating suggestion! I don't think that we have had any hints of that yet. It would be strange for the Temple to be playing host to something left in place to subvert its authority.

I'm confident of my argument, EXCEPT in the scenario of stealth technology masking any of the necessary signatures. However, one would have expected the energy emissions originally detected by Merlin to have been similarly muffled.

If Schueler did indeed leave something under or within the Temple, that provides a platform for what Dennis has suggested about the apparition in March 916.


1. How many energy you need to pull something that simple? Merlin got away with using tractor beam in Zion, despite not knowing how exactly capable are Temple systems. Schueller knew it better, of course.

2. ...You seems to mix up the technical level of scanners with their capabilities. To put it simple: the AN/APG-63 radar of F-15 fighter and AN/SPY-1 radar of "Ticonderoga"-class cruisers are roughly on the same technical level. But AN/SPY-1 is WAY more powerful and capable - simply because it have much bigger antenna, power sources, and computing capabilities of naval ship.

So, while Merlin's scanners are, presumably, on same tech level as Temple's, they are MUCH smaller and less powerful. The Temple could easily have build-in antennas dozens of meters in diameter, or large, distributed arrays of interferometers. Merlin, obviously, could not just build dozen-meter aerial near the Zion. And Temple sensors aren't bothered with hiding from anyone, while Merlin's are forced to hide FROM Temple's.

In short - Temple scanning capacity are much better.

3. The Temple is a machine. Even if it is controlled by AI, it is hardly the best of AI development available. More likely, it is something like Owl (because Archangels clearly didn't want self-aware AI to run unchecked for centuries basically in charge of all remaining humanity). And simple AI's, as we knew from Owl experience, aren't exactly prone to doubt their orders, even if they make little sense from large picture of things. So, if Schueller left some secret command to be activated 1000+ years after, and supported this program with his personal recognition codes, then AI would not think twice about it. It would just fulfill the orders.
------------------------------

- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by FriarBob   » Tue Apr 02, 2019 10:36 pm

FriarBob
Rear Admiral

Posts: 1045
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2011 7:29 pm

Julia Minor wrote:
FriarBob wrote:
Finally, while a bit unrelated I recently remembered something and need to bring it up. There is yet one bit of proof that we know the IC does in fact have available that we all seem to have forgotten about: the video evidence that Merlin and Nimue used to break Clyntahn. They have an actual recording of Shan-Wei arguing with Bedard and Langhorn and the supposed "good Archangels" using names of places that never existed... if, that is, the Writ is actually true. Which of course it isn't.

Is that info contained in Shueler's Testimony? Probably actually NOT, since it's a book and written testimony instead of video evidence. But there IS outright proof available to the IC. That may well be the only proof they have, though I highly doubt that. But they DO have absolute and inarguable proof, proof so good it even convinced Clyntahn.


As I recall, Clyntahn knew the video was genuine because he'd seen similar video footage in the Inquisition's secret archives. Presumably Rayno would have had a similar reaction if he'd been captured alive and shown the footage; he should have had the security clearance to get into those archives himself.

The rest of the Temple hierarchy? Of course they would recognize the faces of the Archangels from the artwork in every single church on the planet. But after the Inquisition shot their very own Jihad in the foot by keeping secrets from the rest of the CoGA, I can't picture them sharing those secret and sacred videos of the Archangels with non-Schulerite vicars. Without that prior familiarity, it would be too easy for a repeat showing to be dismissed as simple (and heretical) theater instead of reality.


Clyntahn knew it was real because he recognized Langhorne's voice. So yes probably Rayno would have as well.

But we do not have any textev at all for what happened to their old 'secret files'. They might have been destroyed. Probably not, but they might have been. They might have been hidden, lost, or ignored. Or they might well have been shared with large chunks of or perhaps even the entire vicarate. And if the latter... that could get... interesting...
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by Loren Pechtel   » Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:55 pm

Loren Pechtel
Captain of the List

Posts: 701
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2015 7:24 pm

wingfield wrote:
Loren Pechtel wrote:Disagree. Merlin is severely limited in the size of the sensors he can use. The temple isn't. (Although David hasn't seemed to consider the physical limitations of sensors. We see that occasionally in the Honorverse novels--sensors and weapons more accurate than theoretically possible given their size.)


Merlin has FULL Federation level technology. This has been emphasised in all of the books. What he is prevented from doing because of the necessity of avoiding a bombardment does not mean that he has inferior technology at his disposal.

If he wanted to (and he doesn't, obviously), he could masquerade as an Archangel, with all of the trimmings. He does have all of those little things like assault shuttles, SNARCS and copious amounts of Terra Fed weaponry tucked away on the Cave.


Full tech doesn't mean he can ignore size restrictions. The guy with the 10' dish will get more than the guy with the 2" dish even with equal tech.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by wingfield   » Sat Apr 06, 2019 5:55 am

wingfield
Lieutenant Commander

Posts: 109
Joined: Sat Apr 25, 2015 11:15 pm
Location: Melbourne, Australia

Randomiser wrote:OK One more try. Yes, Merlin has 'FULL federation level technology', but he doesn't have all of it. He doesn't have a top level military AI for instance, otherwise he would be able to decrypt the Key of Scheuler. OWL just can't cut it for that job. Merlin has what Kau Yung could manage to divert and secrete in the cave without being spotted. That does not mean he has everything the TF ever thought of by way of tech gear. Quite the opposite. My laptop, well your laptop, maybe, is FULL modern level technology, that doesn't mean it is as powerful as one of Google's server farms, does it? Neither do all military radars have the range, power and sensitivity of a ballistic missile early warning station. i.e NOT all sensors used by today's military have 'EXACTLY the same calibre and quality' Why should all the TF's?

Fixed installations often have advantages over mobile ones; e.g. they can have more sensors attached, larger sensor arrays, more power available to feed their sensors; more computer power directly attached to the sensor network for realtime analysis, just for starters. OWL has been overtaxed and unable to do everything required by way of surveillance in good time at some points, we have no textev that the computers under the Temple are the same or lesser capacity than OWL they might well be better.

If you have an actual argument that the scanners Merlin has are 'exactly' as good as the Temple's, let's have it. Continually asserting that it must be so because they are the same generation of technology isn't an argument - it's mere assertion. Where's your evidence?

This is the same as asking the child who called out that the Emperor had no clothes to provide evidence. The truth is obvious to all who could see, as long as they would only look.

That Merlin and the Inner Circle have access to Federation technology is stated so often in the books that listing them would undoubtedly blow any character limit for a post. The only limitation is on when and how they can use it, especially in terms of doing something that MIGHT trigger the OBS, which is somehow not communicating properly with something under the Temple anyway.

Now the prevailing orthodoxy in this thread seems to be that the IC would not dare take on the Temple because there is such superior technology there; that they dare not challenge the Church of God Awaiting because they have 80 years to work out a way around all the possible religious objections to attacking the Writ; and so on.

Way back on page 7 of this thread, Bruno Behrends set out a cogent argument about HOW it could be the Inner Circle behind the apparition of Schueler and WHY the IC would take such a step, in the light of the current situation, as well as why the use of the technology involved would not be a problem given the location of the apparition. Bruno referenced many things included in TFT that pointed the way of the IC's involvement.

Perhaps it is time to start a new thread and point everything out again.

If the Inner Circle operated under the constraints argued in this thread, Merlin and Nimue might as well go back to sleep for another few hundred years and start again.

The hole in your arguments is that we know NOTHING about what is ACTUALLY under the Temple. When you say that nothing Merlin has is able to challenge the level of what is there or could not be of the same quality, we have no data with which to compare what is in Nimue's Cave or can be used or is used by Merlin.

Saying that it MUST be there or MUST be more powerful than anything that Merlin has does not convince me at all until I see what it is.

As you say, Owl as an AI might be inferior to an AI under the Temple but we don't have any details of any such AI.

You say that Owl is overtaxed. However, the Circle has expanded enormously and we have seen plenty of evidence of the Circle sharing the load beyond just Nahrmahn and the two PICAs.

You also admit that "we have no data with which to compare what is in Nimue's Cave or can be used or is used by Merlin". That doesn't help you either.

In other words, YOU show me YOUR evidence if you want me to go quiet.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by Brigade XO   » Sat Apr 06, 2019 3:43 pm

Brigade XO
Admiral

Posts: 2287
Joined: Sat Nov 14, 2009 11:31 am
Location: KY

So Scheuler presents a vision to the people in his Church and provides them with a Book which will provide evidence (background, whatever) to prove, beyond all doubt, that a great lie and deception has been perpetrated on the people and Faithfull of Safehold.

Do we suspect a Profit of Biblical stature who looked 900+ years into the future, crafted a message and a Book to address what was going to happen over the intervening centuries and "internal" Church problems?
Is it a really good Federation AI which has been monitoring all the goings on- in manners such that Merlin and Owl can't detect- and has used background provided by Scheuler to prepare the message?
Perhaps it is Scheuler who had himself copied into a massivly more sophisticated version of a PICA and he has been reanimated only a couple of years less that Merlin and has been taking all that time observing (undetected by Merlin and Owl) and assessing the situation.
So now he sees that there has been a resolution (or breathing space) from the corruption the Church got itself into and is going to correct the damage done by the whole "War of the Fallen" coup. Of course we don't have any idea just how far he intends to go. Is it "just" the war and who was on which side and why they were wrong so that Safehold can return to Langthorn's original program? Of is he going to end up going back after the whole Church creation and start the wakening of of the Church and the population to the real reason Safehold was founded. In all of this, there is going to have to be some taking into account the scientific and technical releases onto Safehold.

If there isn't, then this could be as simple (and truly dangerous) preprogramed delivery of 900+ years ago that is going to seriously clash with everything: The Church as it now stands, the Church through the corruption and Jihad, a call/demand that the people return to the ORIGNAL compiance to the Writ and ALL so-called advancements or diviations around the prohibitions of the Writ be expunged?

Tricky. If it IS Scheuler -or a truly high-ed AI (vs PICA) which has encorporated all his memory, logic, reasoning and is /has been thinking for itself as Scheuler the IC has some explaining to do. But, then the Scheuler that has now made his appearece has to have also at least partialy made up his/it's mind about where to go from here and either force Safehold back into that whole hiding scenario or move forward - it's been almost 1,000yr- and start bulding to go after the Gbaba.

We shall see.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by FriarBob   » Sat Apr 06, 2019 11:17 pm

FriarBob
Rear Admiral

Posts: 1045
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2011 7:29 pm

wingfield wrote:
Randomiser wrote:If you have an actual argument that the scanners Merlin has are 'exactly' as good as the Temple's, let's have it. Continually asserting that it must be so because they are the same generation of technology isn't an argument - it's mere assertion. Where's your evidence?

This is the same as asking the child who called out that the Emperor had no clothes to provide evidence. The truth is obvious to all who could see, as long as they would only look.


Well... yes, it is actually quite obvious. It's blindingly obvious that you are both part right.

It is absolutely blindingly obvious that the tech level is (at least essentially) on par. It's a complete duh.

It's also blindingly obvious that size does actually matter. Even when Weber breaks these obvious rules from time to time (most likely because he forgets, but perhaps occasionally to write his way out of a corner) he also obeys these rules quite often. And he kindly provided some textev thereof in the very latest book.

Through Firey Trials, October YOG 905 wrote:The temptation to simply send the stealthiest possible passive array along with Staynair had been almost overwhelming. In fact, that was exactly what Cayleb, Sharleyan, Nahrmahn Baytz, and Owl had all argued they should do.[...]

And it was probably a good thing he had, because no remote small enough [my emphasis] for them to infiltrate under someone’s clothing or disguise as a piece of jewelry without anyone’s noticing could have pulled in everything the much more sensitive ones hidden inside him had already gathered. And were still gathering, for that matter. And that smaller, less capable sensor [my emphasis] wouldn’t have had the flexibility to look in all the directions he was looking as he followed individual power runs and placed them—and the devices they served—on the map he was creating. It would be partial and woefully incomplete when he finished it, that map, but it would be incomparably better than anything they’d had before.


The sensors inside him are bigger. That means they are more sensitive. This is truly basic physics and is absolutely inarguable unless you want to throw Newton out with the bathwater. (Or unless you want to go to quantum mechanics of some sort. Granted, some sci-fi series do one of those or even both. Weber, however, does not. Or at least not on Safehold.)

The key point here is not that he has equivalent technology. Duh. Of course he does. The key point is that in order to evade risk of detection the sensors he is able to use (not owns or has access to) have to be passive. This means either A) small and hidden and totally inert until safely back outside the temple, or B) inside him (and still in passive mode).

wingfield wrote:Now the prevailing orthodoxy in this thread seems to be that the IC would not dare take on the Temple because there is such superior technology there; that they dare not challenge the Church of God Awaiting because they have 80 years to work out a way around all the possible religious objections to attacking the Writ; and so on.


Obviously I'm not in that camp. Not in any way shape or form. They must take on the temple and the lies in the Writ. I'm just not a fan ATM of the way they appear to have done so.

wingfield wrote:The hole in your arguments is that we know NOTHING about what is ACTUALLY under the Temple. When you say that nothing Merlin has is able to challenge the level of what is there or could not be of the same quality, we have no data with which to compare what is in Nimue's Cave or can be used or is used by Merlin.


Aside from the minor detail of size, this is quite true. We don't have a clue what's under there. We do know there is more space for it and therefore odds are very high there is more of it. But beyond that we know nothing.

What we do know is what is over there. And over the rest of the world. The OBS is still out there and OWL has already stated that Merlin has no weapons capable of destroying it. Not because he doesn't have an equivalent tech level, BTW, but because he doesn't have enough weapon range. Which is not a qualitative difference either, it's a size difference (again).

Could they create something to do so? Obviously yes. In fact I'm mildly surprised they haven't yet; there dozens of ways they could have. If nothing else there have to be other moons somewhere in the solar system. Kicking things off might be tricky, but once started they could build the next best thing to a whole planet worth of advanced manufacturing capacity out there (eventually). Might take 50 years or so, but they think they have that now so why not get on it already? And once they had that, it's not that much harder to build a warship or even a fleet of warships. Odds are good all they'd need would be one.

And once there was no more OBS their constraints would ease greatly. But until that day happens, it's not that they fear the tech level of the temple. It's that they fear the response of the temple ... IF there is still any system there capable of triggering the OBS into flattening Charis. Which unfortunately they also don't know... and can't know until they cross the Rubicon.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:31 am

PeterZ
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 6253
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:11 pm
Location: Colorado

Whether or not the IC is responsible for The Visitation, they Do need to prepare to defeat the possibility of a Return. That means setting up a dispersed Terran Tech manufacturing capability while increasing the number of nations industrializing heavily. Those requirements almost beg for colonizing the Barren Lands.

As I see it, those lands are perfect to build deep, underground manufacturing centers. They can build there with little worry that a possible Rakurai strike will kill millions. Heck, a Rakurai strike there may not ven be noticed. Odds are, however, the OBS won't do anything if the IC are reasonably stealthy. Once built, that manufacturing center can supply a sufficiently powerful arsenal to defeat who or whatever awakes under the Temple or Returns from an extended orbit.

Setting up operations in the area may well be a politically astute move. With the Harchong Empire on Howard regressing into a brutal autocracy, Green Tree Island will see many more escaped serfs. Eventually, the Emperor will move against the abbey that is protecting them. Stationing the ICN on Green Tree in sufficient force to deter the Harchongese is almost a given. Establishing a colony on the Barren Lands after the UC builds their underground industrial center is a good way to hide a good chunk of activity. This is especially true of the colony is heavily involved in research. If the IC does the same thing on Silverlode well away from the gold mines, that's two centers working to arm up for The Return. Set up a third center in the Desolation Mountains and hide behind a heavy mining operation backed by Duke Delthak.

The end result is a distributed terran tech industry and increased industrialization of Safehold. Given just how dependent The United Provinces is on Charis, Charis could very well help build ship yards capable of building ironclad steamers. The UP isn't going to leave the Charisian sphere. Giving them modern shipyards provides a good example of what going all in on Charisian industrialization and trade can mean. Dohlar is for all intents and purposes marrying into the EoC. They'll get yards soon. They'll also get neat new toys when Siddermark grows aggressive. Steam tanks, smokeless powder, high explosives, dirigibles and long range artillery are but a tithe of Alanah's dowry.

Anyway, that's what the IC should be doing to defeat The Return or something along these lines. Doing something like the Schueler Visitation doesn't fit.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by Julia Minor   » Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:04 am

Julia Minor
Lieutenant Commander

Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:58 pm

I don't think a tech colony on Silverlode would be a good idea. Yes, it's a very large island with a very small population, but the one thing the OBS is not is subtle. If a hypothetical Silverlode tech colony trips the OBS, people are going to see Langhorne's Rakurai smashing down within the borders of Charis, and that's going to cause all sorts of problems.
Top
Re: ***Major Spoiler*** The ending scene of Through Fiery Tr
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Apr 07, 2019 8:16 am

PeterZ
Fleet Admiral

Posts: 6253
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:11 pm
Location: Colorado

Julia Minor wrote:I don't think a tech colony on Silverlode would be a good idea. Yes, it's a very large island with a very small population, but the one thing the OBS is not is subtle. If a hypothetical Silverlode tech colony trips the OBS, people are going to see Langhorne's Rakurai smashing down within the borders of Charis, and that's going to cause all sorts of problems.


I can see that. The other idea is to couple hidden tech manufacturing centers in ICN refueling/maintenance bases. Build the underground facilities in Samson's Land or better yet in Armegeddon Reef but use the colony supporting a Samson's Land base as cover.

Spreading 3-4 tech colonies around Safehold should be enough.
Top

Return to Safehold