Haven Victorious

So, have you all considered the fact that Haven won the Second Manticore-Haven War?

Not in military terms, of course-- but in political ones, absolutely. The Republic's stated victory condition was simply to force Manticore to the negotiating table, and to get an honest peace treaty out of them. And by those standards it succeeded brilliantly.

Not only did they succeed in obtaining a peace treaty in a far shorter time frame than the first go-round, but it was undeniably a far better treaty than they would have gotten from High Ridge. Hell, it was a far better one than they would have gotten from Cromarty!

And I would argue that outcome would not have been possible without the war, and moreover, without the war exactly as Theisman conducted it. Most obviously, the extreme contrast between the way the reborn RHN acted and the actions of the PN set the stage for the people of the SEM (not to mention Elizabeth) eventually being able to accept that the leopard had changed his spots back at last.

But it's also possible that a conventional opening campaign would not have led to the treaty and the GA at all. A slow opening, to an officially-announced war, with fewer losses for the SEM, might not have brought down the High Ridge government. Elizabeth would have hated them just as much, but if they could have ridden out the first shock, who's to say how much longer they would have held on? At the very least, their goals and hers would have coincided as far as the SEM's survival was concerned, and they did have the Salamander at their disposal. And that would have led to truly dire things for the SEM, had High Ridge been at the helm for Monica and the conflict with Mesa and the League.

Not only would Pritchart have been out of her mind to trust him as far as she could throw a SD(P), it's highly unlikely that High Ridge--who didn't even trust his own allies-- would have supported any attempts Elizabeth made to come to an arrangement with Haven that didn't let him maintain his power somehow. A treaty of mutual defense, with technology-sharing, etc? Forget it.

And last of all, by very nearly defeating Manticore militarily as well, Haven proved it's worth *as* an ally. Without the second war, even the most cautious, like White Haven and Honor, are left still viewing the RHN as they did the Peep navy previously: inferior tech that's now even more outdated, inferior personnel, little ability to innovate-- "like pushing baby chicks into a pond" as Hamish put it. Thunderbolt put paid to all that.

I won't argue that anyone in-universe views things this way-- even if they might have, I suspect the truth of Giancola's manipulations overshadows everyone's thoughts on the "rightness" of the war itself, and it's personal costs (especially to Theisman and Pritchart) probably prevent them from viewing it with anything but regret.

But at the end of the day, the Republic of Haven fought as honorably as they could on the best information they could, and regardless of how the Battle of Manticore ended, the Republic achieved exactly what they set out to achieve: a peace treaty that let them maintain the gains they had made in restoring the Republic's soul, with a path forward to regaining the trust of the galaxy, and a little leg up on those tech problems.

At worst, given that the SEM's victory condition was basically "just don't lose", you can say it was a draw.

Aww, there is a God. Someone else actually don't mind peering under the deepest layers of skin. Thank you.

Now you've got me wondering what actually was Manticore's idea of victory? Manticore never cared about conquering Haven, they just wanted to stop the madness. Haven had no morals, scruples and values in their conduct of war. None that Elizabeth could see. Honor had a more personal account that certain Havenite officers were indeed worthy of consideration. But Beth had no such knowledge. Eloise had an opportunity to finally show a different color of stripes long before she actually did, but the real life obligations to her beloved Republic and to politik conspired to throw a monkey wrench in any possible earlier plans to show her true colors. Which were just as altruistic as Elizabeth's. Though admittedly, I didn't come to that conclusion until Eloise's treatment of a certain POW. The way she treated Henke was so touching.

'Tell Elizabeth about the forged correspondence Eloise!' I screamed that so loudly and so often during the books, that dammit! She had to have heard it!

But! Eloise's hands were tied. She didn't operate in a vacuum. Which brings me to your appalling notion that the outcome would not have been possible without the war. Appalling because it is sad. Sad because it is highly likely to be true. Y-y-yes, you're probably correct in that, however difficult it is for me to admit it, because as a reader, I hated the Peeps! Anyway, adding just a minor correction to your notion. . . war(s). There had been so much killing and loss on both sides. So many loved ones had been sacrificed that even Beth's stuffed hatred for all things Havenite had reached its peak. There was a chance at peace. Real peace, though I thought that chance hung on the head and heart of Eloise spilling the beans of the forged diplomatic correspondence. Wars because the fear of a protracted war with the SLN in the long run on one front and a continued war with the Havenites on the other had to have been truly nauseous for even the mettle of the Soul of Steel. I can't imagine the many sleepless nights each turn of the screw had on the vise tightening around Beth's heart.

NortonIDaughter, you may well be right that the war, both wars, were instrumental in making the peace possible. But I personally think the timing of Manticore being caught between a rock and a hard place was what truly allowed peace. AND the goodness in the heart of Eloise. To be honest, I wanted Esther McQueen to be victorious for the Peeps. She seemed to be the only one with balls in my eyes. Or rather, the first and only one to expose herself and stand up and be counted in the war against the insanity of the Committee of Public Safety. I'm certain everyone's argument against McQueen being the correct one to lead the Republic is probably right. We'll never know. But Eloise certainly proved herself to be a very nice (forgive me) consolation prize. The gesture of throwing caution to the wind and sailing herself as a "lone Queen" into enemy territory to chat face to face was sheer brilliance of Eloise, and because of it, I could have spent a night or two in bed with her. To comfort her, people! Simply to comfort her. Regardless of what else may have happened. At any rate, Eloise orchestrating a soft coup against her government and arranging for the two diplomatic geniuses to look eye to eye and stand cheek to cheek was priceless and instrumental for peace. Those two really needed to look into each other's heart through nature's natural window of the eyes, with an empathic Salamander in the midst gauging truth.

Ultimately though, I think Manticore's victory condition was "Eliminate the Havenite axis of threat at all costs. We got the possibility of a much bigger Category 5 storm brewing."

NortonIDaughter wrote:So, have you all considered the fact that Haven won the Second Manticore-Haven War?

Not in military terms, of course-- but in political ones, absolutely. The Republic's stated victory condition was simply to force Manticore to the negotiating table, and to get an honest peace treaty out of them. And by those standards it succeeded brilliantly.

Not only did they succeed in obtaining a peace treaty in a far shorter time frame than the first go-round, but it was undeniably a far better treaty than they would have gotten from High Ridge. Hell, it was a far better one than they would have gotten from Cromarty!

And I would argue that outcome would not have been possible without the war, and moreover, without the war exactly as Theisman conducted it. Most obviously, the extreme contrast between the way the reborn RHN acted and the actions of the PN set the stage for the people of the SEM (not to mention Elizabeth) eventually being able to accept that the leopard had changed his spots back at last.

But it's also possible that a conventional opening campaign would not have led to the treaty and the GA at all. A slow opening, to an officially-announced war, with fewer losses for the SEM, might not have brought down the High Ridge government. Elizabeth would have hated them just as much, but if they could have ridden out the first shock, who's to say how much longer they would have held on? At the very least, their goals and hers would have coincided as far as the SEM's survival was concerned, and they did have the Salamander at their disposal. And that would have led to truly dire things for the SEM, had High Ridge been at the helm for Monica and the conflict with Mesa and the League.

Not only would Pritchart have been out of her mind to trust him as far as she could throw a SD(P), it's highly unlikely that High Ridge--who didn't even trust his own allies-- would have supported any attempts Elizabeth made to come to an arrangement with Haven that didn't let him maintain his power somehow. A treaty of mutual defense, with technology-sharing, etc? Forget it.

And last of all, by very nearly defeating Manticore militarily as well, Haven proved it's worth *as* an ally. Without the second war, even the most cautious, like White Haven and Honor, are left still viewing the RHN as they did the Peep navy previously: inferior tech that's now even more outdated, inferior personnel, little ability to innovate-- "like pushing baby chicks into a pond" as Hamish put it. Thunderbolt put paid to all that.

I won't argue that anyone in-universe views things this way-- even if they might have, I suspect the truth of Giancola's manipulations overshadows everyone's thoughts on the "rightness" of the war itself, and it's personal costs (especially to Theisman and Pritchart) probably prevent them from viewing it with anything but regret.

But at the end of the day, the Republic of Haven fought as honorably as they could on the best information they could, and regardless of how the Battle of Manticore ended, the Republic achieved exactly what they set out to achieve: a peace treaty that let them maintain the gains they had made in restoring the Republic's soul, with a path forward to regaining the trust of the galaxy, and a little leg up on those tech problems.

At worst, given that the SEM's victory condition was basically "just don't lose", you can say it was a draw.

ALRIGHT SETTLE IN LADIES AND GENTS BECAUSE BOY DO I HAVE SOME FEELINGS ABOUT THIS.

....I can't put them into words yet, but rest assured I will do so in the next few days. I just wanted to make it clear that a) yes, I'm here, b) yes, I saw this post, and c) yes, it gave me Emotions.

ALRIGHT SETTLE IN LADIES AND GENTS BECAUSE BOY DO I HAVE SOME FEELINGS ABOUT THIS.

....I can't put them into words yet, but rest assured I will do so in the next few days. I just wanted to make it clear that a) yes, I'm here, b) yes, I saw this post, and c) yes, it gave me Emotions. [/quote]

Oh Boy! THIS is going to be GOOD!!!!!

NortonIDaughter wrote:At worst, given that the SEM's victory condition was basically "just don't lose", you can say it was a draw.

-------------

As a summary --
A successful mutual treaty does not have "winners" and "losers" but rather mutual winners.

Just as there could not be a "negotiated" settlement of WWII in this universe (for a LONG host of reasons), there could not have been a successful negotiated settlement of the First Haven-Manticore war without a regiem change. As it happened, that change was done with St.Just's pulsar in Theisman's hand.
On the Manticore side, a government change was also needed since High Ridge & Co saw too many domestic advantages to keeping the war officially on.

The treaty between Haven and the Manticore Alliance proved beneficial and advantageous to both, hence Both are "winners".

just my 2 cents (or 2 centi-credits)

-- Stewart

I'll agree it was a strategic win for the Peeps, considering what was coming had Haven One not went on a road trip when it did. An Apollo dart straight to the heart of Haven.

Goodbye Citizens of Haven.

I say that the war was necessary to bring Elizabeth et al to the understanding that Haven had changed partially because, in-universe, there *was* abundant evidence that they had already done so-- evidence that Elizabeth was explicitly ignoring because of her own emotional trauma.

By the time WoH opens, Haven has already regained it's constitution, allowed member planets to leave if they so desired, and started making reparations to the internal groups who had been specifically targeted by the Legislaturalists and Committee of Public Safety (as we see in that story about Abigail's middy cruise). They've held open, fair, and free elections. And those are just the most obvious things we see on the page. Erewhon, which had also lost and suffered at the Peep's hands, looked at the Republic's actions and came to the (correct) conclusion that Haven had changed. It's clear from their eventual leak of "Operation Raging Justice" that such biased observers as Beowulf were able to see the truth as well.

Furthermore, Honor has firsthand, personal knowledge of Thomas Theisman-- and most importantly, so does Nimitz, who at this point is completely fluent in sign and able to pass on the information he obtained from Tom's mindglow-- and while there wasn't time for much sampling at Barnett, he had plenty of time to delve back in Grayson. And Warner Caslet, at the very least, can attest to his character being largely unchanged since the early days of the war. So too do Tom's actions speak for him.

But that "distant" evidence was easy for Elizabeth to discount (especially with Mesa's encouragement), until the war, and both Honor's smackdown and her reports from the negotiations, rubbed Elizabeth's face in the truth.

NortonIDaughter wrote:I say that the war was necessary to bring Elizabeth et al to the understanding that Haven had changed partially because, in-universe, there *was* abundant evidence that they had already done so-- evidence that Elizabeth was explicitly ignoring because of her own emotional trauma.

By the time WoH opens, Haven has already regained it's constitution, allowed member planets to leave if they so desired, and started making reparations to the internal groups who had been specifically targeted by the Legislaturalists and Committee of Public Safety (as we see in that story about Abigail's middy cruise). They've held open, fair, and free elections. And those are just the most obvious things we see on the page. Erewhon, which had also lost and suffered at the Peep's hands, looked at the Republic's actions and came to the (correct) conclusion that Haven had changed. It's clear from their eventual leak of "Operation Raging Justice" that such biased observers as Beowulf were able to see the truth as well.

Furthermore, Honor has firsthand, personal knowledge of Thomas Theisman-- and most importantly, so does Nimitz, who at this point is completely fluent in sign and able to pass on the information he obtained from Tom's mindglow-- and while there wasn't time for much sampling at Barnett, he had plenty of time to delve back in Grayson. And Warner Caslet, at the very least, can attest to his character being largely unchanged since the early days of the war. So too do Tom's actions speak for him.

But that "distant" evidence was easy for Elizabeth to discount (especially with Mesa's encouragement), until the war, and both Honor's smackdown and her reports from the negotiations, rubbed Elizabeth's face in the truth.

The only point with which I would quibble is that Elizabeth did not need the truth "rubbed in her face." Had High Ridge not been in the PM's slot (i.e., had it been Willie Alexander in his place) and Honor on active duty (not half-pay because of her enemies at the Admiralty), Elizabeth would have been perfectly willing to negotiate a final settlement with Pritchard. She would have seen herself as enforcing a victor's peace terms, but she would also have negotiated to get them, not simply dictated. And --- as you say --- once Pritchard and Theisman both came in reach of a treecat, the 'cat would be out of the bag about their character and their veracity, courtesy of the furry critter that rides around with her all the time (and whose judgment of people she absolutely trusts).

She was totally determined to defeat the Peeps, in no small part in punishment for what happened to her father and then to her uncle and cousin, but she was never the irrational lunatic some people seem to think she was. She understood exactly what Honor was saying about the SL in part because she'd already realized the same thing about Haven. Unless she was prepared to utterly destroy the Republic of Haven as a a political entity (which she knew darned well she couldn't do), the Republic would still be there, still be bigger than Manticore, and still a potential opponent with whom she had to deal one way or another. Because of that, she had to have a peace settlement which avoided (or at least minimized) Havenite revanchism. It was that simple, and she knew it.

Would a treaty negotiated by an Alexander government have been as beneficial for both sides, even with treecat intervention, as what finally emerged as the Grand Alliance? Almost certainly not. But the delay in negotiations had nothing at all to do with Elizabeth. It was solely the fault of High Ridge and his allies, and she would cheerfully have shot the lot of them herself if she could have gotten away with it!

Oh, absolutely the delay was not Elizabeth's fault! But as you say, even with Cromarty or Willie Alexander as her PM, she would have been seeking a treaty that was based on punishing the new Republic for the sins of the previous regime (and the previous previous regime!). And even though the punishment she chose to exact would not have been beyond what Haven could bear, it would have been nowhere near the GA. She did need her face rubbed in the difference between the PRH and the restored Republic to want *that*.

And while her pain is perfectly understandable, and while the vast majority of people both in-universe and out- consider it perfectly reasonable that she would wish to punish *any* Havenite government, she certainly also later holds a grudge against Erewhon for NOT distinguishing between High Ridge and the SKM as a whole. Either she is just as culpable as her PM, or she owes Pierre and Theisman both thank-you notes. It takes a lot for her to be able and willing to judge Pritchart, Theisman, and the restored Republic separately from the other versions of Haven instead of lumping them all together.

As you pointed out, she would have negotiated if she could have, because even without the victory she truly wanted, she'd have certainly chosen a stable peace over another war. It's just that what she would have offered to, and what she even *wanted from* Haven, would not have been as good a deal for the Republic. Which is why I made my argument that as written, even with the never-to-be-sufficently-damned Giancola's machinations tainting the actual decision to resume hostilities, the second war was ultimately to the Republic's benefit.

NortonIDaughter wrote:Oh, absolutely the delay was not Elizabeth's fault! But as you say, even with Cromarty or Willie Alexander as her PM, she would have been seeking a treaty that was based on punishing the new Republic for the sins of the previous regime (and the previous previous regime!). And even though the punishment she chose to exact would not have been beyond what Haven could bear, it would have been nowhere near the GA. She did need her face rubbed in the difference between the PRH and the restored Republic to want *that*.

And while her pain is perfectly understandable, and while the vast majority of people both in-universe and out- consider it perfectly reasonable that she would wish to punish *any* Havenite government, she certainly also later holds a grudge against Erewhon for NOT distinguishing between High Ridge and the SKM as a whole. Either she is just as culpable as her PM, or she owes Pierre and Theisman both thank-you notes. It takes a lot for her to be able and willing to judge Pritchart, Theisman, and the restored Republic separately from the other versions of Haven instead of lumping them all together.

As you pointed out, she would have negotiated if she could have, because even without the victory she truly wanted, she'd have certainly chosen a stable peace over another war. It's just that what she would have offered to, and what she even *wanted from* Haven, would not have been as good a deal for the Republic. Which is why I made my argument that as written, even with the never-to-be-sufficently-damned Giancola's machinations tainting the actual decision to resume hostilities, the second war was ultimately to the Republic's benefit.

I think the whole "rubbed in her face" is dumb. There were a lot of reasons, she thought, for war. However, she twice went to set up negotiations BEFORE she learned of what MAlign was doing. Once was answering the Haven request for a meeting at Torch and then sending Honor.

She may hold grudges; she is not insane. Note that when she sent Honor she already had the upper hand with Apollo, etc.

And as soon as she learned the truth from Simoes, she quickly was ready to work with Prichart. And, of course, when she got
the generous offer it took almost no time to become friends.

Even the Dets have recognized she is far more flexible than THEY thought.

Oh, and keep in mind that Manticore also won the whole thing. Elizabeth will be on the throne for a long time and Prichart will be gone. The top admiral around is Harrington and even Henke outranked Tourville...not that it had all that meaning at the current point.

Manticore still has all the advantages of the Junction. And while the Sollies will not be happy about what happened, they can blame MAlign and the Mandarins for a lot of it. Note that the Harrington legend will simply grow.