Theory for the next arc

I've been re-reading (listening) to the series (I have 15 hours left to finish AtSoT). I have a couple of theories regarding the next series.

The lost Book of Schuller: Most of the theories I've seen about this relate to it either being a virtual book or something created out of whole cloth by the inner circle. What if we've already seen the methodology for introducing it? When Merlin asked OWL how many other people were discrepancies between Shan Wei's list of colonists and the official record, there were 253. We know that those were spread all over the world. We know that Siddarmark is the only country in the world with a republican tradition. We also know that certain "splinter factions" exist within the church hierarchy; the Sisters of Seijin Khody are the most prominent example. What if the lost Book of Schuller is just that, a collection of writings by Schuller that have been "lost" for centuries. They are protected in a small, out of the way convent or monastery by a small faction, quite possibly one of the branches of the Wylsyn family.

State of the World: Charis will have stopped growing. It will largely be an empire of islands. The only significant area I can see being added to Charis before the next book is Raven's Land. Dohlar will have stabilized and come to a peaceful but tentative settlement with Charis. The old king abdicated when his son reached the age of majority. Siddarmark will be stable in population, and possibly looking to expand it's borders back to fill in what they lost in The Sword, and maybe swallow up Silkiah. Southern Harchong will have declared independence and established a new government that is more oligarchy than republic or monarchy. Desnair is finally settling out of a civil war that has actually turned it into several smaller duchies, or a new leader will have risen up to recombine the competing families under the banner of new empire of Desnair. Norther Harchong is still deep in the grips of the years of chaos following the violent uprising of the serfs and slaves who are being supported by Southern Harchong and the Charisians. Nothing has changed in the Temple Lands.

Charisian style "innovation" is spreading like wildfire, and the church is struggling internally to come to grips with how to contain it while not investing too much power back into the inquisition. The new grand inquisitor is either a Wylsyn cousin or a counter-reformist that is building a power base.

The Return: the second arc is going to need a primary antagonist. We can assume that Grand Vicar Duchairn will institute policies to keep power from concentrating in the hands of a very few (ala the Go4), without stringent checks and balances. Besides, that bad guy has been done once, the new arc needs a new bad guy.

Enter the return of Chohiro and the Dawn Star.

Our heroes have to get access to the temple to wake up Schuller's "final defense".

The newly formed Earldom of Dragon Island and it's first Earl, Rainos Ahlverez is rather suggestive to me. Why make dragon Island and earldom? Why give that new and likely poor earldom to the political heir apparent to Thirsk? Wouldn't Ahlverez have more clout if given lands more commensurate with his authority?

My guess is that Dragon Island will be where the new Dohlaran fleet will be based. I further suspect that Charis will have bases in the Dohlar Bank at Chelmsport on Trove Island and on Lizard Island. Not sure if these ports will be leased like Guantanamo and Hong Kong or be ceded to Charis as part of the peace settlement. Either way, the ICN will keep bases in the Harchong Narrows, likely on Jack's Land and at Claw Island along with their Chelmsport and Lizard Island bases.

Dohlar will build up dragon Island as a fleet base. Harchong will buildup Whale Island or Hilda Island in addition to Yu-Shai in Shwei Bay. Siddermark will build their navy out of Dairnyth and Sidar, but Dairnyth will be their only port in the Gulf of Dohlar. The expanded Salthar Canal will allow passage of their Eastern and Western fleets. The same applies for the ICN.

I have to tip my hat to Lyonheart. He called Greentree Island as home for escape slaves from the beginning. I suspect that since it is a Sisters of St. Khody stronghold, Charis will extend their protection if not an offer of inclusion into the Empire to the island. Setting Greentree Island as the spearhead of the Safehold Abolitionist movement seems very likely. The SSK have been focused on reforming the CoGA for so long that they need another grand task to replace the one they have just succeeded in. I doubt they will come out in the open just yet, but will need to fill their days with purpose.

It makes sense to turn Greentree Island into either an independent ally or part of the Empire of Charis. If Charis builds up the Greentree economy sufficiently and establishes a strict rule of law and anti-corruption ethos, Greentree might avoid pitfalls that have swallowed places like Haiti. With Greentree as a shiny lure to the Harchongese serfs yearning for freedom and Desnairian slaves the SSK, Helm Cleaver and Charisian interests succeed in freeing; that island will be a powerful economic entity by the time the next arc begins.

Slavery seems like the perfect pretext to fuel military strife leading into the Return.

I'd like to see the story line pick up several centuries (or maybe a 1000 years) later as Safehold starts to expand and prepare for the Gabba.
But I'll happily read anything DW writes.

jeremyr wrote:I'd like to see the story line pick up several centuries (or maybe a 1000 years) later as Safehold starts to expand and prepare for the Gabba.
But I'll happily read anything DW writes.

Part of me agrees, but part of me thinks that unless they're discovered by accident earlier than they plan. Then by the time they go hunting the Gbaba it will be like clubbing baby seals...

Morden wrote:

jeremyr wrote:I'd like to see the story line pick up several centuries (or maybe a 1000 years) later as Safehold starts to expand and prepare for the Gabba.
But I'll happily read anything DW writes.

Part of me agrees, but part of me thinks that unless they're discovered by accident earlier than they plan. Then by the time they go hunting the Gbaba it will be like clubbing baby seals...

Note - This is for the third "series", not the upcoming one...

I'm willing to bet that it occurs something like the following...

Book 1- Safehold is in space, is at (or slightly past) Terran tech levels, and there are multiple colony worlds (as well as 2-3 pre-hidden "Boltholes" that have been sent out to re-create Safehold minus the religion). However, they don't yet have the quantity to defeat the Gbaba despite an edge in quality. They run into the Gbaba, and lose a couple of colonies in the early fighting.

Book 2- All on warfare where as Safehold stretches and reaches for every last possible manufacturing and technology capability in order to build the quantity needed. At the same time, the Safeholdian fleet is slowly (but steadily) losing colonies to the Gbaba but inflicting terrible losses. Last battle of the book is the first time that Safehold outright stops a Gbaba attack and begins to look at going on the offensive.

Book 3- Safehold tech continues to improve, at the same time that the Safeholdian navy is driving the Gbaba back across the galaxy and reclaiming former colony worlds. At some point they actually drive the Gbaba back past Earth, which is a monumental point in the book with history and what not. Eventually, the book ends with Safehold learning why the Gbaba attacked in the first place and ending the threat to humanity.

Let's not forget the inevitable schismatic religious wars that Merlin and Nahrmahn have predicted. Those will be uglier than the the last war, since they'll feature multiple schisms of the CoGA battling each other, with each thinking that God is on their side so whatever they do to the other side (who are heretics of course) is fine with God.

Imagine Clyntahn x 10 without the centralized reign of terror. The Sword of Schueler multiple times over. People who used to spend Wednesday mass together at each other's throats.

It's gonna be ugly. REALLY ugly.

The Border States may welcome the arrival of Siddarmakan troops just to see an end to the violence.

Silkiah is likely to remain independent unless Siddarmark and Charis have a falling out over it, and that isn't a war Siddarmark would be likely to win. Machine guns and RPGs vs. the single shot M96. Diesel engines vs. coal. Tanks vs. cavalry.

Not much of a war.

They also need to shut down the Rakurai so science can move past the Proscriptions and humanity can make it back into space and prepare to meet the Gbaba.

Merlin & Co. need to find out what's underneath the temple, either by infiltration or by negotiating access. Any system set to call for help from an AI Archangel or anything of the sort, or that activates the Rakurai needs to be shut down for good!

The 800 lb. gorilla is the return of the Archangels, whatever form that takes. I think it's the Hamilcar coming back, so capturing it and its manufacturing facilities, which could cut decades if not centuries from the time needed to face the Gbaba is of paramount importance. (And a good chance for Merlin and Nimue to engage in some derring-do!)

I foresee one of the books ending with Safehold's launching a home-built object into orbit for the first time. Whether they'll go the NASA route and pretend to develop the tech bit by bit or openly skip ahead to Terran Federation technology depends on whether the Great Reveal is widely accepted. Even if it isn't, if the EoC commits heresy and violates the proscriptions and the Rakurai does nothing because they shut it down, the rest of the planet is going to find itself in the position of mimicking the heretics or being left so far behind that they may as well be sheepherders in Sodar.

Two likely possibilities come to mind for the continuation.
A new arc dealing with the truth about the religious teachings of The Church of God Awaiting. Now I haven't seen a discussion of that name. WHAT is it awaiting? Probably whatever is under the Temple. Possible background stories about Khody and the war, or other stories about the Books.

But I think David has left bread crumbs on what's under the Temple. In MTaT, there is a VR discussion between Nahrman and Nimue about how the Federation handled VR and AI personalities. What if there's a VR research group that the Federation set to work on time travel? There had been some sort of suggestive research that showed time travel might be possible, but even the basic research was going to take a long time that the Federation didn't have. So they send off the Safehold expedition to follow up and bring the project to fruition. Then build fleets and man them with enough firepower to simultaneously destroy all Gbaba worlds. The last fleet shows up just after the Safehold expedition breaks off. That's where the 'second' fleet comes from at the start of the series. Merlin is there and is "reunited" with Nimue.
The second option is that the command crew left a PICA to try and oversee Langhorn's plan.

Actually, Mac, Clyntahn's last night suggests how the Reveal will resolve itself.

The returning "archangels" will be confronted with their inconsistent statements in some way. How can they describe the pre-fall Shan-wei's discussion with Langhorne as anything other than an admission that Mankind preceded Safehold? If I recall that discussion was about technological development, so this is primary evidence of the "archangels" thoughts fueling their disagreement leading to the Shan-wei's "fall".

Safehold will have 20 years of doctrinal discussions regarding the Proscriptions. The archangels return will bring all those discussions to a head. Simply having an "archangel" showing up and asserting doctrine without suitibly addressing the inconsistencies surrounding the topic won't automatically calm folks down.

These are folks that have developed and progressed for centuries without their hands being held by "divine beings". They will not have the ingrained habits of automatic obediance. They will have had 20 years to question everything. No way an "arhcangel" will be able to start where they left off centuries ago. Toss in the Sister's of Saint Kohdy, the Bothers of Saint Zherneau's and Sisters of Saint Ehvelyn's historical accounts/evidence and the returners will have a much tougher time of simply saying "because I said so" as an answer to any question.

No, the Return will either kill off Nimue's millennia long task or address the entire question of Langhorne's and Bedard's creation/lie thoroughly.

Just a note... Silkiah's independence is now guaranteed jointly by the Republic of Siddarmark and the Empire of Charis. I don't see that changing soon...

Don

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