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EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!

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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:44 pm

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gcomeau wrote:
It's not just the left on this one... let alone just the "lunatic left". It's spreading. But that will happen when impeachment is actually, you know, warranted.


If it's warranted, I'll support it. Trouble is that impeachment is a political action and can't be seen as anything other than a political action. Calls for impeachment are always appropriate because it is always purely political. If a political ploy works and breaks no laws, it is appropriate.

The flip side is that too many people are yelling from inside an echo chamber. These folks hear each other getting louder and believe the increased decibels are more people joining them. That's not happening. All that increased volume comes from reverb. Those outside the echo chamber aren't persuaded to enter. No, they are persuaded to stay outside and move away from the door.

That's what happened during the election. No one paid attention to those outside that liberal echo chamber. Not the media or the pollsters or the pundits or anyone who wasn't already part of the liberal in crowd. The liberals lost and are still shocked. Does the loss alter how they view things? Not in the least.

So, carry on. Chase your appropriate political stratagem and chase it loudly. Make sure everyone hears and sees all that congratulatory virtue signaling. I just don't think the message being sent impacts people the way they think it does, Inigo.
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by gcomeau   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:54 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
So, carry on. Chase your appropriate political stratagem and chase it loudly. Make sure everyone hears and sees all that congratulatory virtue signaling. I just don't think the message being sent impacts people the way they think it does, Inigo.


I repeat...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallu ... roval.aspx
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:57 pm

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gcomeau wrote:
PeterZ wrote:
So, carry on. Chase your appropriate political stratagem and chase it loudly. Make sure everyone hears and sees all that congratulatory virtue signaling. I just don't think the message being sent impacts people the way they think it does, Inigo.


I repeat...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallu ... roval.aspx


Ok, what makes these polls more accurate than the polls leading to the election?
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by gcomeau   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:11 pm

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PeterZ wrote:


Ok, what makes these polls more accurate than the polls leading to the election?


You do understand that for the most part those polls weren't actually that far off right? National polling this election was just fine. Clinton won by 3 million votes, which is pretty damn close to where polling had her. It was a fluke of vote distribution that Trump barely eeked out margins in a few key states where some localized polling was off by a few points to take the EC.

Right up until election night 538 was predicting, based on polling, that Trump had a better than 1 in 4 chance of winning, those are not exactly long odds. And then he *barely* won. That is not the gross miss certain parties like to paint it as.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 8302302208


So what makes it "more accurate" now? Nothing. Nothing needs to!
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:50 pm

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gcomeau wrote:
PeterZ wrote:
Ok, what makes these polls more accurate than the polls leading to the election?


You do understand that for the most part those polls weren't actually that far off right? National polling this election was just fine. Clinton won by 3 million votes, which is pretty damn close to where polling had her. It was a fluke of vote distribution that Trump barely eeked out margins in a few key states where some localized polling was off by a few points to take the EC.

Right up until election night 538 was predicting, based on polling, that Trump had a better than 1 in 4 chance of winning, those are not exactly long odds. And then he *barely* won. That is not the gross miss certain parties like to paint it as.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 8302302208


So what makes it "more accurate" now? Nothing. Nothing needs to!


Problem is that national polls aggregate geographically. Elections are not. These polls don't capture how that support is distributed. The liberal echo chamber of big cities over represent against Trump when compared to the number of national elected officials those cities represent in Washington. The dynamic isn't changing.

So, yes, the echo chamber is getting louder and big city protestors persuade their already persuaded representatives how incensed they are. Most of the rest of us in flyover country and those rare purple states like Colorado just shake our heads at the antics. That or begin popping popcorn.
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by gcomeau   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 1:54 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
gcomeau wrote:You do understand that for the most part those polls weren't actually that far off right? National polling this election was just fine. Clinton won by 3 million votes, which is pretty damn close to where polling had her. It was a fluke of vote distribution that Trump barely eeked out margins in a few key states where some localized polling was off by a few points to take the EC.

Right up until election night 538 was predicting, based on polling, that Trump had a better than 1 in 4 chance of winning, those are not exactly long odds. And then he *barely* won. That is not the gross miss certain parties like to paint it as.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 8302302208


So what makes it "more accurate" now? Nothing. Nothing needs to!


Problem is that national polls aggregate geographically. Elections are not. These polls don't capture how that support is distributed.


Sure...

None of which has anything to do with national approval rating polling accuracy.
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:07 pm

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gcomeau wrote:Sure...

None of which has anything to do with national approval rating polling accuracy.


Accuracy in how polls influence events? Sure it does. We aren't a direct democracy, nicht wahr?

So, by all means have the already massively anti-Trump cities become even more anti-Trump. Have those cities' already liberal majority behave like total idiots and destroy public and private property. They persuade no one outside of those cities. They persuade no representative that's not already persuaded because the polls indicate only the increased polarization within those already heavily anti-Trump cities.

So, trust the polls and have at it.
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by gcomeau   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:14 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
gcomeau wrote:Sure...

None of which has anything to do with national approval rating polling accuracy.


Accuracy in how polls influence events? Sure it does. We aren't a direct democracy, nicht wahr?

So, by all means have the already massively anti-Trump cities become even more anti-Trump. Have those cities' already liberal majority behave like total idiots and destroy public and private property. They persuade no one outside of those cities. They persuade no representative that's not already persuaded because the polls indicate only the increased polarization within those already heavily anti-Trump cities.

So, trust the polls and have at it.


If you seriously believe being underwater in his approval rating by double digits in the *first month* of his presidency only reflects opinion in the liberal cities, one of us is definitely letting their local bubble influence their view of reality.

You can't get numbers that bad unless you're losing independent and moderate support.
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:54 pm

PeterZ
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Posts: 6344
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Location: Colorado

gcomeau wrote:
PeterZ wrote:
Accuracy in how polls influence events? Sure it does. We aren't a direct democracy, nicht wahr?

So, by all means have the already massively anti-Trump cities become even more anti-Trump. Have those cities' already liberal majority behave like total idiots and destroy public and private property. They persuade no one outside of those cities. They persuade no representative that's not already persuaded because the polls indicate only the increased polarization within those already heavily anti-Trump cities.

So, trust the polls and have at it.


If you seriously believe being underwater in his approval rating by double digits in the *first month* of his presidency only reflects opinion in the liberal cities, one of us is definitely letting their local bubble influence their view of reality.

You can't get numbers that bad unless you're losing independent and moderate support.


Depending on where the respondents come from and the distribution of non-participants, sure you can. In any case, please carry on.
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Re: EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!
Post by The E   » Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:24 pm

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Now featuring in this thread: PeterZ and his amazing attempts at not looking like a complete fool for backing Trump.
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