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spoiler(s) Wars to come

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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by lyonheart   » Wed Jan 23, 2019 3:03 pm

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Hi Dennis,

"Very interesting" if not somewhat simplistic, albeit given the space constraints still interesting. ;)

Bear in mind that Wilson's nationalization of the railroads came after a series of boneheaded government decisions that wasted hundreds of millions of dollars back then (many billion now), but don't get me started on the USSB buffoonery, that by overspending came very close to ruining the whole economy; including in the fall of 1917 stacking almost every RR car in the country up to 2-300 miles back from the east coast ports (well past Pittsburgh in the case of Philadelphia) because they couldn't handle all the cargo the government was trying to jam through, partly because there weren't enough ships or cranes etc, even so the RR train engines out in the boonies had to keep running for the refrigerator cars to try to keep all the vast amounts of meat from rotting, assuming the engines could get the fuel (ie coal) to keep running, and largely failing of course.

Meanwhile the national economy began to shut down because there were hardly any RR trains left to move or deliver anything else in the rest of the country, especially the west, while the RR trains were stuck and unable to unload, so the country was almost paralyzed but because of government censorship and willing support from the major newspapers like the NYT etc, nobody knew about it or what had caused it.

This is when the patriotic RR unions chose to strike, and rather than negotiate rationally or intelligently, the government caved and gave the unions everything they wanted, even though that eventually hurt them because they didn't care about the new technologies already changing the industry or the long term effects of the strike ruining the RR industry through the '20's and 30's with all the featherbedding that kept new investors from bothering etc, and not becoming profitable again until the late 1970's (ie after OPEC's 73 quadrupling the price of oil), NTM having that question still on the IRS form; "Do you have a railroad pension?"

For some reason none of the centennial reviews or histories of WWI covered this and other examples of incredibly stupid [US] government management incompetence, nor was it much covered after the war, or the country might have objected to the stupidities of the new deal rather more strongly.

Lincoln was a far better war president than Wilson with his PhD etc, and his 2nd inaugural speech far more appropriate than Wilson's 14 point attempts to deny human nature etc, let alone that of nations, a typical progressive socialist attitude.

As for the great depression following WWI, it was more than ten years later, and had a host of causes quite unrelated to it.

Regardless of what the French Revolution publicly espoused, it was really about payback, not just of aristocrats but by lots of of the middle class against their neighbors, incidentally because the middle class was not an invention of the British or industrial revolution, predating it by thousands of years.

Rather the industrial revolution enabled the middle class to expand enormously, while reducing the royal/aristocratic control of the economy, compelling them to deal with the new power of so many richer citizens.

Thus almost all modern political movements in the last 3 centuries have started from the middle class, in part because they have more time for it and are more aware of the gap between their power and what they believe it should be, and perhaps more importantly with a better chance of success; though all the medieval peasant rebellions, and those around the world indicate how old aristocratic incompetence is and the lack of a successful revolution without the middle class's involvement.

You imply the dictators had wars simply because they had this excess war materiel lying around unused, which was hardly the case, though they were quite happy to get their desires by mere bluster if that was all it took to get France and Britain to cave.

Mussolini didn't build that much war materiel during the 20's and 30's, regardless of what he said, and what he did create was rather obsolete by June of 1940.

Hitler started later, but he had a far more industrialized country, and initially built a lot of WWI weapons, like the 40 year old G98 Mauser, still the army's primary weapon throughout WWII, along with far too much horse drawn artillery [75% still horse drawn in 1944] and supply wagons, using more horses in WWII than in WWI despite all the hype about the panzers and 'motorized' divisions.

Yes, WWI ruined the European established or state churches, because they had invested themselves in the war far too much, just as it ruined all the royal houses except Britain's.

Fascism, another form of socialism, actually had quite an inspiring ideology according to its proponents, indeed after WWII anyone in Germany appealing to people's better nature was often accused of being a Nazi, permitting all sorts of less than moral activity.

The Nazi party base was the lower middle class, whose party positions, modeled on the communist party's [like the neighborhood watch etc] enabled them to get their own back at their previously better off neighbors, just like the French revolution.

Yes, the German industrialists tried to protect themselves, but many if not most failed.

L


[quote="DMcCunney"][quote="PeterZ"]Recall that Woodrow Wilson nationalized the Railroads in the US and the regulated wages for the industry once the RRs were re-privatized. Was this policy an experiment in classic socialism or an impulse towards fascism? Both policies centralized political and economic control over elements of national wealth. How each policy executed control is different, but not the aggregation of control.[/quote]Wars tend to produce centralized control of economies, simply to orient them to war production, and that can happen on both sides of the fence. The question is what happens to the controls once the war is over and that sort of centralized planning isn't required.

An interesting volume to look at is Peter F. Drucker's "The End of Economic Man". It's actually his first book, and the original draft was written in 1933 when he still lived in Austria. He was trying to understand how totalitarian fascism could arise and succeed in Germany and Italy.

While he didn't use those terms, his answer was essentially "The old gods had failed."

Europe was a fundamentally Christian place, and Christianity had ideals of how the world should be and how people should behave. (See Max Weber's "The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism" and R. H. Tawney's "Religion and the Rise of Capitalism" for excellent discussions of the influence religion had on economic development.)

The French Revolution promoted the ideals of liberty and equality.

The Industrial Revolution in Britain provided the ideal of capitalism providing vastly increased production that would make everybody better off, and lessen the distinction between the extremely rich and the very poor by creating a middle class that was the next stage in economic development.

World War I put paid to the idea of liberty and equality as absolute monarchy reasserted itself.

The Great Depression following World War I put paid to the idea of capitalism providing partial economic equality.

For both Germany and Italy, though they expressed in an somewhat different forms, the purpose of Fascism was [i]full employment[/i]. They would get full employment by centralized government control of the economy, and putting the economy on a war footing, and producing war materiel. The problem with that, of course, is that at some point you have to [i]fight[/i] a war to justify doing it.

With the failure of the old ideals, the question was what new paradigms would replace them? Fascism explicitly [i]didn't[/i] provide a new ideal, and that lack proved ultimately fatal.

(And speaking of Fascism, See also Seymour Martin Lipset's "Political Man." Lipset was a sociologist analyzing politics. His contention was that Oligarchy was a system imposed from above, by a ruling class preserving its rule. Dictatorship was imposed from below, by a successful revolution of the poor against the rich, and designed to preserve and extend their power. Fascism was fundamentally a [i]middle class[/i] movement, supported by a group that saw itself squeezed between the existing rich industrial class and a rising and increasingly assertive proletariat seeks a larger piece of the pie. The true supporters of Fascism in Germany and Italy were middle class. The notion that the rich industrialists supported Hitler, for example, proves to be not really the case. They did what they thought was needed to preserve what they had and cooperated with the government, but many would have been far happier not having to.)
______
[b]Dennis[/b][/quote]
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by phillies   » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:29 pm

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There was a sharp but short deep recession under the Harding Administration. Harding did a number of great things. He declared peace on Europe. He freed Wilson's many political prisoners.
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:34 pm

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phillies wrote:There was a sharp but short deep recession under the Harding Administration. Harding did a number of great things. He declared peace on Europe. He freed Wilson's many political prisoners.

And allowed corruption comparable to Hygyns in Siddermark. Tea Pot Dome anyone?
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by phillies   » Wed Jan 23, 2019 5:48 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
phillies wrote:There was a sharp but short deep recession under the Harding Administration. Harding did a number of great things. He declared peace on Europe. He freed Wilson's many political prisoners.

And allowed corruption comparable to Hygyns in Siddermark. Tea Pot Dome anyone?


In fact, when Harding found out about Tea Pot Dome, he reasoned with one of the malefactors, "I took him by the collar and shook him by the rat he was." Within a few months a number of the principals were already prison bound, or had committed suicide.

On a slightly different note, while Italian manufacture was weak, Italian engineering was not always bad. The Italians were the only axis power to deploy a four engine heavy bomber, an aircraft sort of similar to the B17. They had the same issues with angine design that we did. The Italian 90mm antiaircraft antitank gun was technically superior to the German 88mm gun in its key aspects.
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:59 am

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Hi Phillies,

Glad to see you around.

Harding was hardly perfect, but better than most of the press he gets.

Regarding the Italian Piaggio 108B, only 3-4 dozen were built, and served in only a single squadron [the rest were prototypes, one carrying a 4" gun, the largest aboard a plane until the 105mm in the AC-130], which pales by comparison with the Heinkel 177 Griffin, of which 1169 were built, that had 2 coupled engines in each engine nacelle, so it could dive bomb, because that was at least 4 times as accurate as level bombing (the IJN dive bombers would have said 10-15 times), but Hap Arnold and his bomber mafia staff never got the memo.

The Italian 90mm/53 was an excellent gun all right, newer than the German 88mm Flak 18 and outperforming it but heavier, but they barely made more than 500 throughout the war, far fewer than they needed.

L


phillies wrote:
PeterZ wrote:quote="phillies"There was a sharp but short deep recession under the Harding Administration. Harding did a number of great things. He declared peace on Europe. He freed Wilson's many political prisoners./quote
And allowed corruption comparable to Hygyns in Siddermark. Tea Pot Dome anyone?


In fact, when Harding found out about Tea Pot Dome, he reasoned with one of the malefactors, "I took him by the collar and shook him by the rat he was." Within a few months a number of the principals were already prison bound, or had committed suicide.

On a slightly different note, while Italian manufacture was weak, Italian engineering was not always bad. The Italians were the only axis power to deploy a four engine heavy bomber, an aircraft sort of similar to the B17. They had the same issues with angine design that we did. The Italian 90mm antiaircraft antitank gun was technically superior to the German 88mm gun in its key aspects.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by SilverbladeTE   » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:07 am

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Posts: 308
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The Industrial Revolution in Britain was to an extent, based on appalling evil.

Workhouses were the first concentration camps
After the Nobility had seized the last of the Common Land the ordinary folks relied on, they were huge numbers starving and reduced to penury, so to deal with these "vagrants" the Workhouses were built
And they used the law to make slaves of free people, slamming them into the workhouses, which were a hell on Earth
Terrified of getting the same fate, folk took terrible jobs at pathetic wages and without safety or respect from their employers
Thus the "Satanic mills" etc

Don't anyone DARE spout off how "great" that period was as my folks went through it
While a necessary and improving step for Human, it was carried out with appalling greed stupidity and down right bloody evil.

My small region had over 90 blast furnaces by 1860s
Steel works were built right next to towns
Massive amounts of heavy metals, phenols etc went into not just the land and water but people en masse due to clouds of toxins
Health, height, life span plummeted
My area still has a life expectancy less than North Korea

My great grandfather became a bitter communist after what he, his family suffered and also what he and his mates suffered in World war 1, where British companies knowingly supplied Germany through backdoor routes in Belgium for profit fyi
As well as the sexual perversions and predation by the nobility in their "big houses"
Hence I damn well wouldn't watch "Downtown Abbey"
While some of the upper crust were decent, many were appalling Human Beings who SHOULD have went to the guillotine.


Edward Howsymnn is fictional and alas far far too few were like him in RL :(
Andrew Carnegie only became a philanthropist after he got old and his crimes so terrible he knew his immortal soul was doomed to Hell.

It wasn't "communism" that made revolutions so bloody, they were indeed "payback" for centuries of sadistic abuse
Lenin etc were zealots and such blinkered thinking always leads to serious problems and the chaos allows monsters like Stalin to have opportunities

But Marx and Lenin's monomania were born from horrendous abuse, anyone with a heart who saw how evil Victorian London and cities actually were would be shocked terribly
Alas, genuine Democracy and improvements were NOT available and were stymied to the point of bloodshed and assassination by the "Establishment"
Only the carnage of two world wars let some change occur by butchering the ranks of the powerful that left openings and folk sickened of war fought to change things...but then the Elite grabbed it back as time went on.

Charis paints a benign, enlightened system, alas, such are rare.
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Jan 24, 2019 12:40 pm

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Posts: 6432
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm
Location: Colorado

SilverbladeTE wrote:The Industrial Revolution in Britain was to an extent, based on appalling evil.

Workhouses were the first concentration camps
After the Nobility had seized the last of the Common Land the ordinary folks relied on, they were huge numbers starving and reduced to penury, so to deal with these "vagrants" the Workhouses were built
And they used the law to make slaves of free people, slamming them into the workhouses, which were a hell on Earth
Terrified of getting the same fate, folk took terrible jobs at pathetic wages and without safety or respect from their employers
Thus the "Satanic mills" etc

Don't anyone DARE spout off how "great" that period was as my folks went through it
While a necessary and improving step for Human, it was carried out with appalling greed stupidity and down right bloody evil.

My small region had over 90 blast furnaces by 1860s
Steel works were built right next to towns
Massive amounts of heavy metals, phenols etc went into not just the land and water but people en masse due to clouds of toxins
Health, height, life span plummeted
My area still has a life expectancy less than North Korea

My great grandfather became a bitter communist after what he, his family suffered and also what he and his mates suffered in World war 1, where British companies knowingly supplied Germany through backdoor routes in Belgium for profit fyi
As well as the sexual perversions and predation by the nobility in their "big houses"
Hence I damn well wouldn't watch "Downtown Abbey"
While some of the upper crust were decent, many were appalling Human Beings who SHOULD have went to the guillotine.


Edward Howsymnn is fictional and alas far far too few were like him in RL :(
Andrew Carnegie only became a philanthropist after he got old and his crimes so terrible he knew his immortal soul was doomed to Hell.

It wasn't "communism" that made revolutions so bloody, they were indeed "payback" for centuries of sadistic abuse
Lenin etc were zealots and such blinkered thinking always leads to serious problems and the chaos allows monsters like Stalin to have opportunities

But Marx and Lenin's monomania were born from horrendous abuse, anyone with a heart who saw how evil Victorian London and cities actually were would be shocked terribly
Alas, genuine Democracy and improvements were NOT available and were stymied to the point of bloodshed and assassination by the "Establishment"
Only the carnage of two world wars let some change occur by butchering the ranks of the powerful that left openings and folk sickened of war fought to change things...but then the Elite grabbed it back as time went on.

Charis paints a benign, enlightened system, alas, such are rare.

The propensity for humanity to abuse concentrated political and economic power is the biggest argument for divided government and a broad level of representation in that divided government. Not a perfect solution, but the best one we have.
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Jan 24, 2019 1:58 pm

lyonheart
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Posts: 4853
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 11:27 pm

Hello PeterZ!

Quite right, as the founding fathers wisely sought to stifle the accumulation of power by making it compete with itself in all sorts of ways.

As Franklin put it when asked by a lady what kind of government had they wrought, " A republic madam, if you can keep it."

No group before or since has done so well.

Churchill said 'democracy was the worst system of government on earth, except for all the others', and on another occasion it was lousy but 8 times better than anything else mankind had tried...

Anyone doubt we also live in interesting times?


L


PeterZ wrote:
SilverbladeTE wrote:The Industrial Revolution in Britain was to an extent, based on appalling evil.

Workhouses were the first concentration camps
After the Nobility had seized the last of the Common Land the ordinary folks relied on, they were huge numbers starving and reduced to penury, so to deal with these "vagrants" the Workhouses were built
And they used the law to make slaves of free people, slamming them into the workhouses, which were a hell on Earth
Terrified of getting the same fate, folk took terrible jobs at pathetic wages and without safety or respect from their employers
Thus the "Satanic mills" etc

Don't anyone DARE spout off how "great" that period was as my folks went through it
While a necessary and improving step for Human, it was carried out with appalling greed stupidity and down right bloody evil.

My small region had over 90 blast furnaces by 1860s
Steel works were built right next to towns
Massive amounts of heavy metals, phenols etc went into not just the land and water but people en masse due to clouds of toxins
Health, height, life span plummeted
My area still has a life expectancy less than North Korea

My great grandfather became a bitter communist after what he, his family suffered and also what he and his mates suffered in World war 1, where British companies knowingly supplied Germany through backdoor routes in Belgium for profit fyi
As well as the sexual perversions and predation by the nobility in their "big houses"
Hence I damn well wouldn't watch "Downtown Abbey"
While some of the upper crust were decent, many were appalling Human Beings who SHOULD have went to the guillotine.


Edward Howsymnn is fictional and alas far far too few were like him in RL :(
Andrew Carnegie only became a philanthropist after he got old and his crimes so terrible he knew his immortal soul was doomed to Hell.

It wasn't "communism" that made revolutions so bloody, they were indeed "payback" for centuries of sadistic abuse
Lenin etc were zealots and such blinkered thinking always leads to serious problems and the chaos allows monsters like Stalin to have opportunities

But Marx and Lenin's monomania were born from horrendous abuse, anyone with a heart who saw how evil Victorian London and cities actually were would be shocked terribly
Alas, genuine Democracy and improvements were NOT available and were stymied to the point of bloodshed and assassination by the "Establishment"
Only the carnage of two world wars let some change occur by butchering the ranks of the powerful that left openings and folk sickened of war fought to change things...but then the Elite grabbed it back as time went on.

Charis paints a benign, enlightened system, alas, such are rare.

The propensity for humanity to abuse concentrated political and economic power is the biggest argument for divided government and a broad level of representation in that divided government. Not a perfect solution, but the best one we have.
Any snippet or post from RFC is good if not great!
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Jan 24, 2019 2:47 pm

PeterZ
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Posts: 6432
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:11 pm
Location: Colorado

lyonheart wrote:Hello PeterZ!

Quite right, as the founding fathers wisely sought to stifle the accumulation of power by making it compete with itself in all sorts of ways.

As Franklin put it when asked by a lady what kind of government had they wrought, " A republic madam, if you can keep it."

No group before or since has done so well.

Churchill said 'democracy was the worst system of government on earth, except for all the others', and on another occasion it was lousy but 8 times better than anything else mankind had tried...

Anyone doubt we also live in interesting times?


L

The US is one one RL example. There are others. The Polish system is admirably divided.

Returning to the story and this thread. This period in Safehold, especially after the Visitation, is one of decentralization. The fall of the supreme authority of the CoGA will create a huge power vacuum in almost every nation. Each nation will now have to make decisions that the CoGA used to make. Shall the nation continue to practice serfdom or slavery? Shall the nation extend the franchise beyond the current elites/aristos? International policy becomes more important as the CoGA cannot gurantee the sovereignty of nations. Each nation has to defend their own sovereignty. How do they do that?

All this spells political competition and likely war. No one wants to fight Charis until their armed forces are more equitable to the ICA/ICN. Every other nation not joined to the hip with charis is fair game.

South Harchong is dead set in a northern Reconquista.

Desnair just appears to want a powerful enough military so they can be the biggest a$$hats possible with impunity. That doesn't include conquest at the moment, but may in the future. Delferahk grows ever more tempting as Desnair continues to industrialize and Delferahk doesn't.

Siddermark has just empowered the Mob and now needs to direct that violent passion away from the current oligarchs leading that nation. Dohlar is a Charisian stooge. Both nations are on the Mob's sh!t list. Charis will likely not send troops to defend Dohlar against a Siddermark invasion. The militaries of Dohlar and Siddermark are comparable. Yeah, the conquest of Dohlar can satisfy the Mob.

The Temple is about to face serious disruption that may well lead rebellion in the Temple Lands.

The Border Kingdoms may well face similar disruptions in tandem with the Temple Lands.

All this chaos will be driven by secular as well as religious motivations to the power vacuum left by the loss in the jihad and Schueler's visitation.
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Re: spoiler(s) Wars to come
Post by SilverbladeTE   » Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:00 pm

SilverbladeTE
Captain (Junior Grade)

Posts: 308
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:14 am

Funny thing is, while I consider myself largely a "socialist"....I agree that wee need a vastly broader and diverse government and that "Big government" is indeed *bad*
But then, my concept of "socialism" is completely different to the zealots and political parties who are puirblind control freaks and power hungry rats!
Lincoln was probably on that road as well (humane careful socialism) as back then Republican, Democrat *and* Libertarian meant completely.different things than today.

Celtic and then Saxon views and crucially, laws, were vastly different than the Norman scum who warped our countries, sigh. Concern for the welfare of the community and its resources, not egotistical greed or loony control freakery
Read up.on the ENCLOSURE ACTS in UK history to see how things went to hell.
Socialism to me should be about caring about the community, not arrogance of "the Big Party" hammering its cyclopean will on everyone...and making a ghastly mess in the process.

Worst scum in the UK were the Dukes of Hamilton, not only did they sell our Parliament out (official history we were taught is a lie, those vermin did it for tax evasion etc), but they made Debt Bondage slavery the rule of law for miners, salters and metal workers from around 1600 to 1700AD in direct contravention of the prior rule and absolutely the spirit of our law, grrr!
So if you tried to leave your job you had to pay back an impossible sum, thus folk were brought back in chains, whipped of even executed

See also the Hamilton's association with the Nazis.(prewar support and Hess' flight to Scotland) and Satanists (Hellfire Club, recorded historical fact, doesn't tell you what locals knew about them however, Hellfire Club had lot of jaded hedonists and protestors against the hypocritical straight jacket morals of the church so most of em were not "evil"...Hamilton's though were just bloody evil and that is NOT from mere gossip, sigh)

Hamilton's built the biggest non-royal palace in Europe from the suffering and death of my ancestors...but their greed made them force their miners to dig out every coal and iron band seam...and undermined their palace and it collapsed, buhaha!
Iirc they owned over 2000.slaves in Barbados?? Alone, never mind their other plantations, we know this from the moneey they demanded from freeing their slaves when slavery was banned

Horrendous family, hence in alt history story I'm slowly writing, they get wiped out :p they were also toadies for Edward Longshanks...who, fyi was a monster, he had over 20,000 civilians butchered when he took Berwick, cause they "dissed" him and he wanted to financially ruin Scotland, of course he didn't understand commerce and that it also wrecked England's trade systems...as well.as his abuse, robbery and banishment of the Jews from England
Another of history were weren't taught about....
Pity the Jewish folk.of Europe didn't settle.here, Declaration of Arbroath gave them equal.rights (in Medieval sense) and we never had antiSemitism here as a social evil

Scottish Norman nobility were our worst problem, never the "english" (who also suffered under.similar scumbags)

Britain avoided the huge slaughters of the Continent thanks to being an island and it helped concepts of Human Rights, Rule of Law, Science and Democracy grow...but we sure had our problems, ick!
Industrialists and nobility secretely funded Sectarianism in late 1800s, both sides, catholic/irish against protestant/scots, so neither side would work together for fair pay and treatment

Rather than heroic war stories, I can give you ghastly ones of how men and children died in the steel works etc.
Relative of mine had a mental break down after.his best mate.was torn apart above him by the winding cables of an overhead crane, for example...no safety systems, bosses didn't care...also they didnt invest, so men were slaughtered and maimed and the owners businesses became more and more uneconomic and failed
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Anyway...
First Past the Post voting systems ensured UK and USA became Two Party Systems and that is not Democracy and is eventually, as we see....CATASTROPHIC! :(
It's not about "left" or "right" it's all about crony corruption :( we have "kleptocracies"

The System has all become about lobbyists, manipulating political office to gain corrupt positions and wealth after they leave office with corporations or lobbying groups
I can give plenty of examples from both sides and how dangerous it's actually got....the morons PRIVATIZED the maintenance and safety of the Coulport munitions base...where the UK stores two hundred hydrogen bombs....30 miles from Glasgow....
The military and many others had kittens over that lunacy
They also privatized Aldermaston that makes and up keeps the bombs...which then had a disastrous fire....
Etc etc


Yeah Democracy is the best of a bad bunch but we don't even have Democracy at all! :(

~~~~~~~~
Back to Safehold
Charis will have to support Dholar
why let an ally get wrecked by a nation gone to hell?
Siddermark will.have to learn painful lessons alas
And the Harchong Emperor and Mahris need butt kicked too...losing a war will spark revolutions ;)
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