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TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert

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TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Nov 11, 2018 3:46 pm

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I would like to use this thread to post speculation and discussion regarding the TFT snippets. As it stands the only way to post is after each snippet. I would like to present an option to have ongoing discussions independent of snippets.

To get things started, I'll post this.

Who went/will go to visit Rainbow Waters to get him on board with the United Provinces? One would like it to be Dyalid Mab, but concedes it was likely Merlin. I hope we find out soon.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by cnrd22   » Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:00 am

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PeterZ wrote:I would like to use this thread to post speculation and discussion regarding the TFT snippets. As it stands the only way to post is after each snippet. I would like to present an option to have ongoing discussions independent of snippets.

To get things started, I'll post this.

Who went/will go to visit Rainbow Waters to get him on board with the United Provinces? One would like it to be Dyalid Mab, but concedes it was likely Merlin. I hope we find out soon.


I am not sure that Rainbow Waters and the United Provinces need to be more than friendly one to each other as there is a lot of distance between them - it seems clear that North Harchong will splinter into 3, United Provinces sponsored by Charis, Rainbow waters provinces sponsored by the Temple and whichever warlord emerges leader in the South (Tiegelkamp) in the name of the Emperor of South Harchong

Strategically there is a clear rapprochement between the Temple and Charis (which may or may not last of course) so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Grand Vicar visiting in Tellesberg or Archbishop Maikel in Zion (or both) and the reversal of alliances seems to be clearly on the books (Dohlar ally, Siddamark enemy) as we've been seeing this step by step in the snippets (the first ones are clearly outlining how Siddamark will turn into an enemy by removing all main Charisian allies - first Qwentyn - economy plus the Ahrmahk plan for the United provinces, then Archbishop Zhasyn moral and I am fairly sure protector Stohnar's war and aftermath extreme stress will catch up with him sooner rather than later and now in the tiny recent snippet, we see the Dohlar part starting to emerge) - as noted, once the snippets made clear there is no "Alignment" like secret organization to be sprung on us as enemy for WW2 and considering that the Archangels are still way too powerful for Merlin and Charis at this stage to be realistic enemies (that would be Gbaba against federation round 2 if you want, valiant but suicidal for Charis and Merlin), the only credible enemy that remains is Siddamark as the Temple while influential still, of course, has been broken as secular power by World War 1 on Safehold and Desnair and South harchong while definite enemies are nowhere powerful enough to be more than a nuissance.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:32 am

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I don't see Siddermark turning against Charis. Eastern Suddermark is VERY reformist. Their experience with the Temple is one of betrayal and abuse. The next two generations will still have big problems with the Temple. Just as the Temple holds a place of hatred and loathing, Charis holds one of gratitude. None of this will change soon absent an equally seismic geopolitical event. An event where Charis betrays Siddermark profoundly and thoroughly. That's not gonna happen, unless RFC give Sharley and Cayleb a terminal case of the stupids.

As for Desnair and South Harchong, I recommend recalling Japan during WWII. That economy was never more that 20% of the US, but they produced a war machine that was very effective. That war machine was built in less than 50 years from a standing start by a non-technical agrarian nation. Consider that SH ans Desnair are beginning their industrialization from the same level as every other nation on Howard and Haven. Further consider that the chief counselor to the Desnari Emperor wants to industrialize in a bad way. He just doesn't want his society polluted with egalitarian crap. The same mindset exists in the Emperor of Harchong. Both Empires are motivated by the same goals fueled by hatred of the same enemy: Charis.

A totalitarian axis on Howard between SH and Desnair that has swallowed up Sodar represents a large population. Let them industrialize to the point of Tojo's Japan or Stalin's WWII USSR and that axis won't be weak. It will be a powerful totalitarian empire with internal access to resources, internal lines of communications and railroads to let it protect its heavy industry in their interior, far away from reach of the ICN.

The big question is will Delfahrahk and the S Howard nations join willingly, gets conquered or organizes their own Indistrialized economies to remain independent? I hope that last option but grant the first is most likely.

The Temple Lands will become an enemy to Charis again. The goal of defeating the Proscriptiobs guarantee that. They are industrializing. If Rainbow Waters keeps eastern Harchong from adopting Reformism but does adopt the social and political reforms needed to stabilize his provinces, he adds a big chunk to the pro Temple ledger. What will be interesting to read about is whether the remaining NH provinces break equally for and against the Temple even as their adopt political reform and industrialization.

I believe Safehold will break down into something like that with Siddermark losing the advantages of having worked longer with Charis to industrialize. They will have the same capabilities as everyone else on Safehold but Charis. The next war will be driven by the Reveal. TFT is setting up the sides for that war along religious grounds.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by cnrd22   » Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:05 pm

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PeterZ wrote:I don't see Siddermark turning against Charis. Eastern Suddermark is VERY reformist. Their experience with the Temple is one of betrayal and abuse. The next two generations will still have big problems with the Temple. Just as the Temple holds a place of hatred and loathing, Charis holds one of gratitude. None of this will change soon absent an equally seismic geopolitical event. An event where Charis betrays Siddermark profoundly and thoroughly. That's not gonna happen, unless RFC give Sharley and Cayleb a terminal case of the stupids.


Will see but I think it's not going to be about religion, but about economics and national pride; I also think all this talk how WW2 on safehold will be about the reveal is a little bit misleading as I think the war will be a secular one for domination of Safehold, and religion will be just a pretext, so the Temple will be divided and not a main antagonist; as it was repeated all the times in the first 10 volumes, the Group of 4 just frittered the supreme moral authority of the Church, and while Zion still has some authority - and regardless whether Grand Vicar Rhobair's policies take hold or not - until/unless the Archangels return, the secular power is now and will be dominant everywhere else on Safehold and the talk (from all the snippets) is not anymore about Charis as heretics against God, but (so to speak) "heretics" against supreme monarchy, guilds, unfettered aristocratic rule etc


as for the points about Desnair/S Harchong vs Japan, hard to say, but Japan transformed its aristocratic culture pretty much overnight in historical terms to become the powerhouse that fought WW2 and i just do not see Desnair (or S Harchong) doing that to become a really serious adversary
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Nov 12, 2018 11:42 pm

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cnrd22 wrote:
PeterZ wrote:I don't see Siddermark turning against Charis. Eastern Suddermark is VERY reformist. Their experience with the Temple is one of betrayal and abuse. The next two generations will still have big problems with the Temple. Just as the Temple holds a place of hatred and loathing, Charis holds one of gratitude. None of this will change soon absent an equally seismic geopolitical event. An event where Charis betrays Siddermark profoundly and thoroughly. That's not gonna happen, unless RFC give Sharley and Cayleb a terminal case of the stupids.


Will see but I think it's not going to be about religion, but about economics and national pride; I also think all this talk how WW2 on safehold will be about the reveal is a little bit misleading as I think the war will be a secular one for domination of Safehold, and religion will be just a pretext, so the Temple will be divided and not a main antagonist; as it was repeated all the times in the first 10 volumes, the Group of 4 just frittered the supreme moral authority of the Church, and while Zion still has some authority - and regardless whether Grand Vicar Rhobair's policies take hold or not - until/unless the Archangels return, the secular power is now and will be dominant everywhere else on Safehold and the talk (from all the snippets) is not anymore about Charis as heretics against God, but (so to speak) "heretics" against supreme monarchy, guilds, unfettered aristocratic rule etc


as for the points about Desnair/S Harchong vs Japan, hard to say, but Japan transformed its aristocratic culture pretty much overnight in historical terms to become the powerhouse that fought WW2 and i just do not see Desnair (or S Harchong) doing that to become a really serious adversary

Whether the nations of Safehold wish to make decisions based on secular motives or not matters less than Charis' need to destroy the CoGA. This won't go away. Because it must be addressed at some point, which nations retain their loyalty to the CoGA will matter. Charis doesn't need a war to spread technology and social change. They will need a war to destroy the CoGA because what Charis wants is the epitome of evil to the CoGA. The epitome of evil for almost any Safeholdian.

The next war can't help but be about religion.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by cnrd22   » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:03 am

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PeterZ wrote:Whether the nations of Safehold wish to make decisions based on secular motives or not matters less than Charis' need to destroy the CoGA. This won't go away. Because it must be addressed at some point, which nations retain their loyalty to the CoGA will matter. Charis doesn't need a war to spread technology and social change. They will need a war to destroy the CoGA because what Charis wants is the epitome of evil to the CoGA. The epitome of evil for almost any Safeholdian.

The next war can't help but be about religion.


Merlin actually needs to neutralize Rakurai so high tech can be developed on Safehold and the stars are attained (and obviously he succeeds based on the prologue in snippet 1 of course)- sure in the process CoGA will be discredited (though the same arguments that Archbishop Maikel and others have been making about how CoGa false and all, has still been inspired by true religion, can be made by CoGa supporters, once the truth about the Federation is known, so I am not sure if CoGa will be completely destroyed or just transformed in the end)

However, the first war has already discredited CoGA badly and the reforms of Grand Vicar Rhobair basically took out pretty much all the sting from defying it with the neutering of the Inquisition (and it's enough for them to hold for a few decades to be impossible to return to pre-war Inquisition unless the Archangels show up early and use Rakurai to destroy Charis etc) and while not obvious immediately, this will clearly show across years with the new generation of people for whom the Church is not the supreme moral authority anymore, the rulers who now for the first time have no more Church check on their ambitions...

So if enough time passes between the wars (and afaik there will be at least 2 decades if not more), yes the religious element will be there but the war will be secular - after all Merlin et co won't go and proclaim that Langhorne was a murderer and CoGA a lie, but have a lot of sneaky ways of introducing the argument after 915 once they have confidence the archangels won't show up for decades (they can conjure any number of fake miracles and visitations away from Zion, hide any number of fake testaments of Schuler and the like or testimonies like St Zherneau's in places to be discovered by devout members of the Temple etc), so they can just stir the pot and prepare the Reveal with these new ideas coming actually from CoGA hierarchy and not from them and hope for the best - unfortunately here they will be mistaken in the sense that while CoGA may split after such, various states who have a beef with Charis will go to war not for CoGA per se, but to attain supremacy in the name of "true faith", which will be whatever their rulers decide - the huge step was "The Church is wrong, was obviously defeated in war despite claiming to have God's ear, and the Inquisition was neutered", from there to "The Archangels were wrong, the writ is a fake", the step will be smaller especially for younger people and with the right preparation
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by Julia Minor   » Tue Nov 13, 2018 11:33 am

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cnrd22 wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Whether the nations of Safehold wish to make decisions based on secular motives or not matters less than Charis' need to destroy the CoGA. This won't go away. Because it must be addressed at some point, which nations retain their loyalty to the CoGA will matter. Charis doesn't need a war to spread technology and social change. They will need a war to destroy the CoGA because what Charis wants is the epitome of evil to the CoGA. The epitome of evil for almost any Safeholdian.

The next war can't help but be about religion.


Merlin actually needs to neutralize Rakurai so high tech can be developed on Safehold and the stars are attained (and obviously he succeeds based on the prologue in snippet 1 of course)- sure in the process CoGA will be discredited (though the same arguments that Archbishop Maikel and others have been making about how CoGa false and all, has still been inspired by true religion, can be made by CoGa supporters, once the truth about the Federation is known, so I am not sure if CoGa will be completely destroyed or just transformed in the end)


My guess is "transformed". The prologue section of snippet 1 tells us Duchairn will go down in history as "Saint Rhobair" and "The Good Shepherd". That doesn't seem to match up with CoGA being destroyed or totally discredited.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:26 pm

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Oh, Alahnah Nimue Arhmahk will be 20 at the end of TFT. One wonders if RFC will show her off in the last few ears of the story? One suspects there is plot time or her.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Nov 20, 2018 12:55 pm

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I moved the post from Snippet #13 torpedo thread here to continue the discussion.

Underlying this entire sub thread of torpedoes is one question.

What would foster technological innovation better?

I suspect that Dohlar will see steam turbines driving air compressors which will power tools used in an assembly line and adopt it quick as a wink. Once they use steam turbines commercially, Dohlaran R&D will find uses for turbines. I truly don't see any other scenario developing. The big question is whether Charis lets Dohlar use the design. I suspect that they will enforce the patent and Duke Delthak will charge some acceptable fee. I further suspect that the turbine patent will not be very well worded. Dohlar will be able to use the concept if they make enough changes. Designing a steam turbine small enough to fit into a torpedo would qualify as a new patentable design.

Once the limits and value of patents are well understood, every nation on earth will have patent experts perusing the Charisian Patent Office's records. There is the one area of the CoGA that will be flourishing- Intendents. Yup, everyone will want their intendents scouring the Proscriptions looking for ways to apply the current patents in novel ways. They will also look for ways not to offend against the Proscriptions, but that will be a necessary side effect.

I wonder now whether the Church of Charis will send out their own evangelists. Those evangelists will be Scheulerite Intendants working with local Intendants to both defend Charisian recognized patents and proselytize the reason why the patent does not offend the proscriptions. Those evangelists will visit shops and manufactories and offer suggestions for improvement and invite local owners to their seminars on how to apply the existing patents to their shops, apply for new patents and how to seek Charisian Patent Office (CPO) help in defending the patents they own.
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Re: TFT Speculation and Discussion Thread-Spoilers Alert
Post by SYED   » Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:55 pm

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What if the republic decides to fix their economic issues by conquering the border states? A brief victorious wars has often been used to prop ailing states. The military aid they received from charis has givern then a military far in advance of the border states, and their military has been gutted by the jihad.
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