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TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)

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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by Joat42   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:59 am

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Randomiser wrote:Problem with a lot of the speculation, with all respect to posters, is that Siddarmark cannot have peace, prosperity or a strong defence in the post-jihad world without industrialising for all it's worth, whoever is is in government, and that fact is glaringly obvious, not just to the politicians, but more importantly to the bankers and investment houses. The more suspicious they are of Charis, or anyone else, the more they need armaments, their own steam shipping, modern agricultural machinery, steam trains etc. - all built in Siddermark. The inner circle could not care less who's money is driving industrialisation in Siddermark. The fact they are concerned means whatever is happening is hindering industrialisation.

Maybe we have a comparable situation in Siddarmark to what happened in Honorverse with the High Ridge Government's stupid shenanigans.

---
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by Kael Posavatz   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:25 am

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Joat42 wrote:
Randomiser wrote:Problem with a lot of the speculation, with all respect to posters, is that Siddarmark cannot have peace, prosperity or a strong defence in the post-jihad world without industrialising for all it's worth, whoever is is in government, and that fact is glaringly obvious, not just to the politicians, but more importantly to the bankers and investment houses. The more suspicious they are of Charis, or anyone else, the more they need armaments, their own steam shipping, modern agricultural machinery, steam trains etc. - all built in Siddermark. The inner circle could not care less who's money is driving industrialisation in Siddermark. The fact they are concerned means whatever is happening is hindering industrialisation.

Maybe we have a comparable situation in Siddarmark to what happened in Honorverse with the High Ridge Government's stupid shenanigans.


I don't really see that. With High Ridge there was plenty of lead-up to show us that the Conservative/Liberal leadership were, uh, who they were; and that hasn't been the case in Siddermark. For that matter, outside of Siddermark's national executive we haven't really seen anything about how their government is structured.

Considering that Siddermark went through what was effectively a civil war and a religious war and everyone else has done only one of these (can't really count the couple of coups Charis has put down), I think a better example is reconstruction-era USA.

Among other things:
-Early disconnect between executive and congress about speedy reintegration/curtailing power of former confederate states and integrating freedmen into society.
-Emergence of multiple narratives of the civil war
-eventual fracturing of party interest in reconstruction (among Republicans)
-Gradual decline of public interest (mostly in the North)
-Emergence of the 'Redeemer' political coalition (mostly in the South)

Granted, there wasn't a strong external power offering to 'help' things along. But the amount of chaos injected into their societal mix is bound to slow things down.

Additionally, there are probably local forces that are deeply opposed to the tech on economic grounds. For one example Siddarmark, unlike the out islands, is a mainland realm with the developed canal system that comes with it. All of those canal pilots/lock operators/toll collectors would object to the loss of their livelihoods the same way the various guilds have in previous books.

And there is also the question of who to partner with. House Qwentyn, as I recall, essentially beggared itself. Since it was one of the largest investment/banking operations in Siddarmark that would be a powerful example of why not to get involved with Charis companies.
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by isaac_newton   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:40 am

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Kael Posavatz wrote:SNIP
And there is also the question of who to partner with. House Qwentyn, as I recall, essentially beggared itself. Since it was one of the largest investment/banking operations in Siddarmark that would be a powerful example of why not to get involved with Charis companies.


I seem to recall that Howsman [in an earlier book] was poised to make a big investment in House Qwentyn to prevent axactly that situation...
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by Kael Posavatz   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:15 pm

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isaac_newton wrote:
Kael Posavatz wrote:SNIP
And there is also the question of who to partner with. House Qwentyn, as I recall, essentially beggared itself. Since it was one of the largest investment/banking operations in Siddarmark that would be a powerful example of why not to get involved with Charis companies.


I seem to recall that Howsman [in an earlier book] was poised to make a big investment in House Qwentyn to prevent axactly that situation...


Granted. But would that have changed public perception for the better? It probably wouldn't have taken much for one of Qwentyn's competitors to reframe it as 'House Qwentyn, one of our oldest and most respected establishments, has become a front for Howsmyn.'
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by Joat42   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 12:59 pm

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Kael Posavatz wrote:
Joat42 wrote:Maybe we have a comparable situation in Siddarmark to what happened in Honorverse with the High Ridge Government's stupid shenanigans.


I don't really see that. With High Ridge there was plenty of lead-up to show us that the Conservative/Liberal leadership were, uh, who they were; and that hasn't been the case in Siddermark. For that matter, outside of Siddermark's national executive we haven't really seen anything about how their government is structured.

Considering the snippets it seems there has been a lot going on off-stage since the last book, and the lead-up may well be coming from a someones internal monologue about what happened. It's not the first time RFC has used that ploy. :)

---
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:07 pm

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Randomiser wrote:Problem with a lot of the speculation, with all respect to posters, is that Siddarmark cannot have peace, prosperity or a strong defence in the post-jihad world without industrialising for all it's worth, whoever is is in government, and that fact is glaringly obvious, not just to the politicians, but more importantly to the bankers and investment houses. The more suspicious they are of Charis, or anyone else, the more they need armaments, their own steam shipping, modern agricultural machinery, steam trains etc. - all built in Siddermark. The inner circle could not care less who's money is driving industrialisation in Siddermark. The fact they are concerned means whatever is happening is hindering industrialisation.

Agreed. However, Siddermark was going through a political upheaval once their ad was won. Most of the key families were Temple Loyalists. Those that remained were reformists. Protector Stonar had to reform his political house along those lines and just how the populace viewed Charis would differ sharply from how the elites in those Core Families would see Charis. Charis is very likely seen as much the same as their oligarchs just more willing to take risks. However, a better breed of oligarchs are still oligarchs who look to their own betterment.

That's the most direct reason I see, anyway.
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by shayvaan   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:27 pm

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Kael Posavatz wrote:
<SNIP>

Considering that Siddermark went through what was effectively a civil war and a religious war and everyone else has done only one of these (can't really count the couple of coups Charis has put down), I think a better example is reconstruction-era USA.

Among other things:
-Early disconnect between executive and congress about speedy reintegration/curtailing power of former confederate states and integrating freedmen into society.
-Emergence of multiple narratives of the civil war
-eventual fracturing of party interest in reconstruction (among Republicans)
-Gradual decline of public interest (mostly in the North)
-Emergence of the 'Redeemer' political coalition (mostly in the South)

Granted, there wasn't a strong external power offering to 'help' things along. But the amount of chaos injected into their societal mix is bound to slow things down.

Additionally, there are probably local forces that are deeply opposed to the tech on economic grounds. For one example Siddarmark, unlike the out islands, is a mainland realm with the developed canal system that comes with it. All of those canal pilots/lock operators/toll collectors would object to the loss of their livelihoods the same way the various guilds have in previous books.

And there is also the question of who to partner with. House Qwentyn, as I recall, essentially beggared itself. Since it was one of the largest investment/banking operations in Siddarmark that would be a powerful example of why not to get involved with Charis companies.


Another big factor in the chaos in reconstruction America was the assasination of president Lincoln.
Lincoln wanted to put the country back together with the least amount of disruption in the South (I imagine that would have been AT LEAST as hard as fighting the war to begin with). After he was killed, that kinda went out the window.


I hope this doesn't mean that Stonhar was killed.

Irregardles, Siddarmark is in a bad place. The east has a lot of western province refugees who will want to go home, but the people already in those provinces have already tried to kill their neighbors once (and have probably ALREADY killed at least some of their families and friends).

At the very least you would have all kinds of civil unrest, much much worse than the post civil war South.

At worst you might end up with a complete disintigration of civil authority, at least in the western provinces. And if the western provinces has gone into terrorist mode, like Clyntahn's Rakurai it might possibly cause a complete balkanization of the nation.
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by Kael Posavatz   » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:40 pm

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shayvaan wrote:
Another big factor in the chaos in reconstruction America was the assasination of president Lincoln.
Lincoln wanted to put the country back together with the least amount of disruption in the South (I imagine that would have been AT LEAST as hard as fighting the war to begin with). After he was killed, that kinda went out the window.


I hope this doesn't mean that Stonhar was killed.

Irregardles, Siddarmark is in a bad place. The east has a lot of western province refugees who will want to go home, but the people already in those provinces have already tried to kill their neighbors once (and have probably ALREADY killed at least some of their families and friends).

At the very least you would have all kinds of civil unrest, much much worse than the post civil war South.

At worst you might end up with a complete disintigration of civil authority, at least in the western provinces. And if the western provinces has gone into terrorist mode, like Clyntahn's Rakurai it might possibly cause a complete balkanization of the nation.


Johnson wanted much the same thing as Lincoln. Congress, or at least the Radical Republicans...didn't, and that plus the election of '66 greatly contributed to his impeachment.

Stonhar, I think, would grasp the advantages of industrializing. Since it isn't happening, at least to the degree expected (I can't quite see Nynian, or whatever identity she's using this book, not doing anything), I'm thinking a combination of factors is in play.

1) Entrenched 'corporate' self-interest from...pretty much anyone who'd stand to loose on industrialization (canal workers, various guilds, etc.)

2) Political operators worried about disruption of the existing election machine when industrialization brings wealth (and in turn a new voting block that forms out of those able to afford the franchize' property requirements)

3) Clean-up: dealing with displaced whoevers, competing property rights, justice vs vengence, etc.

4) Religious unrest. Less so than before, but the loyalists aren't exactly welcome, and while Siddarmark had a sizeable number of reformists they weren't exactly embracing the Church of Charis either. Call it a three-way split with a 'native' church between the Temple and Charis

5) Economic turmoil. All that new farm land broken in the East, and now farmers wanting to get back to it in the south and west have glutted the market, depressed crop values, etc.

Toss in rehabilitation vs retribution on the part of the 'loyalist' provinces/population, and Stonhar, or whoever is in his seat, probably has a lot more than mere 'industrialization' on his plate.
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by fallsfromtrees   » Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:58 pm

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Kael Posavatz wrote:
shayvaan wrote:
Another big factor in the chaos in reconstruction America was the assasination of president Lincoln.
Lincoln wanted to put the country back together with the least amount of disruption in the South (I imagine that would have been AT LEAST as hard as fighting the war to begin with). After he was killed, that kinda went out the window.


I hope this doesn't mean that Stonhar was killed.

Irregardles, Siddarmark is in a bad place. The east has a lot of western province refugees who will want to go home, but the people already in those provinces have already tried to kill their neighbors once (and have probably ALREADY killed at least some of their families and friends).

At the very least you would have all kinds of civil unrest, much much worse than the post civil war South.

At worst you might end up with a complete disintigration of civil authority, at least in the western provinces. And if the western provinces has gone into terrorist mode, like Clyntahn's Rakurai it might possibly cause a complete balkanization of the nation.


Johnson wanted much the same thing as Lincoln. Congress, or at least the Radical Republicans...didn't, and that plus the election of '66 greatly contributed to his impeachment.

Stonhar, I think, would grasp the advantages of industrializing. Since it isn't happening, at least to the degree expected (I can't quite see Nynian, or whatever identity she's using this book, not doing anything), I'm thinking a combination of factors is in play.

1) Entrenched 'corporate' self-interest from...pretty much anyone who'd stand to loose on industrialization (canal workers, various guilds, etc.)

2) Political operators worried about disruption of the existing election machine when industrialization brings wealth (and in turn a new voting block that forms out of those able to afford the franchize' property requirements)

3) Clean-up: dealing with displaced whoevers, competing property rights, justice vs vengence, etc.

4) Religious unrest. Less so than before, but the loyalists aren't exactly welcome, and while Siddarmark had a sizeable number of reformists they weren't exactly embracing the Church of Charis either. Call it a three-way split with a 'native' church between the Temple and Charis

5) Economic turmoil. All that new farm land broken in the East, and now farmers wanting to get back to it in the south and west have glutted the market, depressed crop values, etc.

Toss in rehabilitation vs retribution on the part of the 'loyalist' provinces/population, and Stonhar, or whoever is in his seat, probably has a lot more than mere 'industrialization' on his plate.

Another point with respect to item 3 - there will no doubt be some "carpetbaggers" moving it to stir up trouble in order to take advantage of the unrest - there is more that enough evidence that this could happen.
The only problem with quotes on the internet is that you can't authenticate them -- Abraham Lincoln
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Re: TFT Snippet #9 (fixed to satisfy smart alecs)
Post by AClone   » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:55 pm

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It's kinda interesting the way that most of you seem to be ignoring the simple fact of the influence that Merlin's main squeeze has to have in Siddarmark.
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