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Safehold: Story line Speculation

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:27 pm

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quote="Joat42"]
C. O. Thompson wrote:..snip..
The inner circle have the tools to make the tools to make the tools to build star-ships, they don't have the raw materials to build even one more PICA and they have the orbital and the Arch Angles clock to be concerned about so... the need for hidden space industry has to be at the top of the list.

True, they don't have to reinvent everything, but there is a lot of infrastructure that must be built up before they are ready to face the Gbaba again.


I think the rebuilding is going to go quite fast, having for example Owl running it means that the rebuild will be more of a geometric progression.

But as you say, the OBS and the return needs to be addressed before that can happen.[/quote]
The cultural rebuilding will take 2 generations. It will take that long for the NEATs have their impact. As soon as the archangels are discredited, NEAT interfaces can be implanted in children. By the time those children hit 40, 2 generations of NEAT educated adults hit the core working ages. Even if the elder Safeholdians get prolong treatment, they cannot really contribute without the education the NEATs provide. Those folks will begin being set aside in favor of NEAT educated individuals.

Many non-NEAT educated folks will still be able to learn how to do technology well. The majority will not.

As a side effect, I doubt more democratic institutions will arise soon after The Reveal. The disparity between those with NEAT educations and those without will cause all sorts of issues. Especially when the numbers will favor non-NEAT education for decades.[/quote]

It may take two generations till the general population is aware of what the inner circle is up to but... in that time, with automation and, if some of the older members of the inner circle 'retire/die' to relocate to the space industrial platforms, there may even be a fleet to work with.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by ywing14   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 7:52 pm

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C. O. Thompson wrote:Don,
I see a six pack or a fifth of single malt in this discussion...

Last point first: What is preventing us from actually developing the tech? I can only speak to the USA and my first hand observations... National Policy is set by the President. Not since John F Kennedy has the space program had a high priority and the worse of all outcomes (Nixon hated everything Kennedy and Nixon was in office when the Apollo landings happened) There was no follow up on momentum that Apollo had built up. When the excitement of the US citizen/tax payers was at the height, other programs were funded. The US Space program died on the vine.

There is Text-Ev that the Gbaba found and destroyed another civilization that had not left their own system before humans bumped into them and there is evidence that the planners of Ark expected an exhaustive search for any remnant of humanity they may have missed so the prospect of being found before the humans at Safehold are ready to defend themselves is really rather high.
Say 50% that the Gbaba or some other space faring race stumbles across them and higher than that if humans make the mistake of leaking high tech signals. At the very least, they must design new radio to produce signals that are hidden in the background noise of the star and my second beer says that they ought to make it such that a Gbaba (or any other alien scout) has to get up close and personal to be sure that the humans have the capability.

I read the plan that Shanwei devised as making sure that humans would be ready to kick ass if/when they bumped into the Gbaba again so the plan should provide for a powerful system defense and stealthy scouts to resume human exploration.

The inner circle have the tools to make the tools to make the tools to build star-ships, they don't have the raw materials to build even one more PICA and they have the orbital the Arch Angles clock to be concerned about so... the need for hidden space industry has to be at the top of the list.

True, they don't have to reinvent everything, but there is a lot of infrastructure that must be built up before they are ready to face the Gbaba again.


n7axw wrote:Just a couple of comments here. The danger from the Gbaba is not that they show up at Safehold, but that as humanity once again enters space that humanity would once again stumble across their territory unaware of the danger and re-ignite the war that led to the extinction of the Terran Federation. That was Pei Shanwei's arguement against snuffing out all knowledge of both technology and history. Langhorne, on the other hand, believed that the best way to avoid the danger was to restrict humanity to a level of tech that would make it impossible for humanity to re-enter space at all.

There is actually no danger of the use of electricity and radio used in and around Safehold alerting the Gbaba to a human presence. The humans of Operation Ark traveled 10 years at hyper speeds to arrive at Safehold. A radio signal would lose its energy and be completely below the level of detectability at that distance. What could alert the Gbaba would be a hypercom signal aimed in the direction of the Gbaba if the signal was powerful enough to communicate over lightyears rather than just miles.

I think that AtSoT, humanity is still decades, if not centuries, away from space. It will go faster than it has in real life, but Safehold at this point is not prepared for even the idea of space let alone going there. This next book will be the steam era. Then after the authority of the proscrptions is overthrown, I would suspect that you will see the introduction of electricity, ices, both gas and diesel, and powered heavier than air flight and so on. How many books it will take to get us to our current level of tech in real life and beyond, I don't know. Owl is there to help things along, but it will take widespread industrializtion to make things go.

As a closing remark, we are on the cusp of entering space now in real life. What prevents us from actually developing the tech to at least explore our solar system is that we are not motivated to devoting the resourses it would take to do so.

Don

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I disagree that the likelihood Safehold will be found is high. Yes, the planners expected the Gbaba to conduct an exhaustive search, but that's why ark was conducted the way it was. They were originally only supposed to wait 250 years before they started rebuilding. Instead it's been almost 100 years. If they weren't found by now it's most likely the Gbaba stopped looking. I believe as long as the Safeholdians refrain from shooting radio signals out into space or other ways of giving their presence away they'll be just fine. I think 100-200 years is pretty generous. We don't know what's going to happen with the return of the Archangels. But their return could set back Charis's ultimate goals by a long time if they return and provide a narrative contrary to the Church of Charis.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:47 pm

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ywing14 wrote:
I disagree that the likelihood Safehold will be found is high. Yes, the planners expected the Gbaba to conduct an exhaustive search, but that's why ark was conducted the way it was. They were originally only supposed to wait 250 years before they started rebuilding. Instead it's been almost 100 years. If they weren't found by now it's most likely the Gbaba stopped looking. I believe as long as the Safeholdians refrain from shooting radio signals out into space or other ways of giving their presence away they'll be just fine. I think 100-200 years is pretty generous. We don't know what's going to happen with the return of the Archangels. But their return could set back Charis's ultimate goals by a long time if they return and provide a narrative contrary to the Church of Charis.


I think we are mostly agreeing here. There was a comment in an earlier post about what happened after the moon race. I couldn't more wholeheartedly agree with the comment. That was exactly what happened. The problem wasn't that the tech was an insurmountable obstacle. The problem was and remains political will.

You need not worry about radio signals or using electricity. Long before those signals would reach the Gbaba, their energy would have dissipated and fallen below the galactic noise floor. The danger would lie in the use of a hypercom aimed in the direction of the Gbaba.

Just thinking about tackling the Gbaba, remember that the TF lost when they were a federation of earth and a number of colony worlds. I don't remember how many. But the point is that in order to win, Safehold will need to both establish and industrialize at least as many worlds as the TF had. In addition to that they will need to advance the tech to the point where it would be demonstrably superior not only to the TF, but to the Gbaba as well. Even if they were in a position to go after the job full bore at the end of AtSoT which they most decidedly are not, it's going to take a monstrous amount of time to do all of that.

It is no doubt true that Merlin and Owl could begin working at building some spaceships and even find some crew to man them. But that would only be a very small beginning and at this point probably wouldn't be wise since there would be no supportive infrastructure.

First the current political, cultural, and religious fever must be broken. People have to begin regarding innovation and change as good things and get used to the notion of progress. And above all, people must learn to think for themselves. Charis has a good start on this, but to develop the needed industrial base, it has to spread to the rest of the planet or at least to enough of the planet to sustain the development...

Did I mention that this is going to take time... I would be surprised if it could be done in less than two to three centuries before it was reasonably safe to go after the Gbaba...

Don

-
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Fireflair   » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:08 am

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My feel for it is that 2-3 generations is probably about right. Time to adjust culture and politics, to introduce tech and really get started on the space race.

One thing that could jump start matters is the Angels return. When they arrive in their heavenly fiery chariot there will be all sorts of religious and cultural issues but it could also be a great opportunity shock the entire world of Safehold into motion in the right direction.

As Thompson mentioned, they can get a jump start on developing materials and such right now. Have the assembly modules start building the tools and stock piles of materials needed. Get everything you can prepped underground so that when it comes time you're not waiting for production but can move right on out after your goals.

Over the next 2-3 generations they could also begin skimming off the cream of the crop. People come into the inner circle, get educated, trained and prolong nanites. When they start to stretch credibility with their longevity move them out of sight. They could always have some reconstructive surgery done and come back to work in the open or they could begin to fill out the core of the space corps.

If nothing else you could get a lot of prep work done to ease the transition into space. If some of this prep work is done before the Angels get back than Merlin will have more people to rely on to help him deal with the Angels.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Apr 26, 2018 12:30 am

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Reopen Alexandria as the repository for those that receive prolong and the fabbers. Keep most of the complex under ground and have the residents live under ground and keep their emissions shielded from the OBS. If they dig deep enough, they might be safe from any KEW strike.

I am sure OWL can manufacture the remotes to get construction started. Eventually they can get an entire manufacturing center up, running and preparing the way fback to space.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:43 am

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I disagree that the likelihood Safehold will be found is high. Yes, the planners expected the Gbaba to conduct an exhaustive search, but that's why ark was conducted the way it was. They were originally only supposed to wait 250 years before they started rebuilding. Instead it's been almost 100 years. If they weren't found by now it's most likely the Gbaba stopped looking. I believe as long as the Safeholdians refrain from shooting radio signals out into space or other ways of giving their presence away they'll be just fine. I think 100-200 years is pretty generous. We don't know what's going to happen with the return of the Archangels. But their return could set back Charis's ultimate goals by a long time if they return and provide a narrative contrary to the Church of Charis.


Perhaps, but keep in mind the discussion that Nemue, Admiral Pei and captain Thiessen have in the beginning of OAR... he Gbaba have not/ seemed capable of not changing... "We came so close to kicking their asses... another 50 - 75 years" This discussion indicated that the Gbaba had not changed in 8- 9 thousand years, even the tech of the new ships was the same as the old ones but... the humans gave them a scare.
Their MO appeared to be "Find someone else.. kill them"... In chapter 1 of OAR the first evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence was the finding of a completely destroyed system where the inhabitants had fully developed and exploited the resources of their home star and ...

Safehold humans know the threat exists, and they are in the vulnerable situation if they are found too soon.

I propose make a virtue of necessity and continue to hide as much capability as possible.
Give the older ones the antigerome treatments and move them into space.
Get that 50 - 75 years of technological development before turning on the "Open" sign.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Thu Apr 26, 2018 11:56 am

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Don,
Judging by the tone in your latest remarks... I think you have a half empty single malt and a full glass within reach ;)
Yes, I think of how much further along we could have been if political decisions had to be made based on what is truly best for the most people.
We would not be having gas pipe lines going through sacred lands or mining sludge killing fisheries... we would be harvesting NI asteroids, refining them in space and building all sorts of things that we could be using here... Remember when an auto had steel parts? What if solar power could recharge your car for 1,000 mile trip.

Back to my earlier point, the infrastructure must be built for the humans in the Safehold but, Merlin and the inner circle have the tools to lift out of the gravity well and the industrial base to begin building the tools that will permit the development of the infrastructure they rally needs...
If I were there, I would strongly advise keeping it as hidden as possible, for as long as possible.



n7axw wrote:
ywing14 wrote:
I disagree that the likelihood Safehold will be found is high. Yes, the planners expected the Gbaba to conduct an exhaustive search, but that's why ark was conducted the way it was. They were originally only supposed to wait 250 years before they started rebuilding. Instead it's been almost 100 years. If they weren't found by now it's most likely the Gbaba stopped looking. I believe as long as the Safeholdians refrain from shooting radio signals out into space or other ways of giving their presence away they'll be just fine. I think 100-200 years is pretty generous. We don't know what's going to happen with the return of the Archangels. But their return could set back Charis's ultimate goals by a long time if they return and provide a narrative contrary to the Church of Charis.


I think we are mostly agreeing here. There was a comment in an earlier post about what happened after the moon race. I couldn't more wholeheartedly agree with the comment. That was exactly what happened. The problem wasn't that the tech was an insurmountable obstacle. The problem was and remains political will.

You need not worry about radio signals or using electricity. Long before those signals would reach the Gbaba, their energy would have dissipated and fallen below the galactic noise floor. The danger would lie in the use of a hypercom aimed in the direction of the Gbaba.

Just thinking about tackling the Gbaba, remember that the TF lost when they were a federation of earth and a number of colony worlds. I don't remember how many. But the point is that in order to win, Safehold will need to both establish and industrialize at least as many worlds as the TF had. In addition to that they will need to advance the tech to the point where it would be demonstrably superior not only to the TF, but to the Gbaba as well. Even if they were in a position to go after the job full bore at the end of AtSoT which they most decidedly are not, it's going to take a monstrous amount of time to do all of that.

It is no doubt true that Merlin and Owl could begin working at building some spaceships and even find some crew to man them. But that would only be a very small beginning and at this point probably wouldn't be wise since there would be no supportive infrastructure.

First the current political, cultural, and religious fever must be broken. People have to begin regarding innovation and change as good things and get used to the notion of progress. And above all, people must learn to think for themselves. Charis has a good start on this, but to develop the needed industrial base, it has to spread to the rest of the planet or at least to enough of the planet to sustain the development...

Did I mention that this is going to take time... I would be surprised if it could be done in less than two to three centuries before it was reasonably safe to go after the Gbaba...

Don

-
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Thu Apr 26, 2018 1:47 pm

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Hi C.O.

I think we are going to disagree on this... So we will have to wait and see how it all works out.

Don

-
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by ywing14   » Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:35 pm

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Sure they could go on building things and trying to stockpile but where are they going to get all the resources to do this from? They only had enough to create one additional PICA. Clearly their recourses are limited in certain areas. They need to focus on breaking the church and figuring out what's going to happen on the 1000 year anniversary. The church has been bowed but not broken. It still has a firm hold in some areas. Once people are ready they can increase their industrial base quite rapidly.

If they want to focus on technology have Owl and Nahrmahn go at it for a few centuries since time in the cyber space is relative I'm sure they could push Owl's knowledge forward. It's how they came up with the way to make the second PICA.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:37 pm

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ywing14 wrote:Sure they could go on building things and trying to stockpile but where are they going to get all the resources to do this from? They only had enough to create one additional PICA. Clearly their recourses are limited in certain areas. They need to focus on breaking the church and figuring out what's going to happen on the 1000 year anniversary. The church has been bowed but not broken. It still has a firm hold in some areas. Once people are ready they can increase their industrial base quite rapidly.

If they want to focus on technology have Owl and Nahrmahn go at it for a few centuries since time in the cyber space is relative I'm sure they could push Owl's knowledge forward. It's how they came up with the way to make the second PICA.


The original plan was to power down a star ship or three and leave them in the asteroid belt...
If I were on the planing committee, I would head first to the L2, L4 and L5 areas where there should be enough to get started... http://www.philipmetzger.com/blog/type- ... ne-part-3/
There are tons of material resources waiting to be processed... Here and there.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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