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Safehold: Story line Speculation

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Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:03 pm

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We have been given a hint that the next development will be about 20-25 years after the Temple and the Proscriptions fell.

I an re-reading the last three books and began to wonder what the"wallpaper" of the next book might look like.

My first thought is that many of the Inner Circle will have "died" so that they could be given longevity treatments and moved to space activities.

I see Sir Dunkyn Yairley as ambassador to the temple and leader of the team that has access to the basement rooms via the tunnel that leads to the estate with the vineyard. This team of humans receive the training they need to crack the computer and gain control of all the systems (including temple surveillance) that were left there.

There is a need to establish space industry without generating a lot of loose emissions that the The Gbaba (Giant Bad Ass Biker Aliens)can pick up from a distance.
I would borrow a page from John Ringo's Troy Rising and use mirrors to focus the solar energy to melt asteroids and blow them up like balloons that could then be occupied and armed... very large carriers placed in the Lagrange points, especially L2 or left loosely in orbit around Safehold. Ship yards and R&D would be conducted in the interior dozens or hundreds of these bases.
Any messages would either be sent by low speed drones or whisker laser, again to keep emissions down to Steam Punk levels. This way, any non human scout would have to get very close to the planet and it could be surrounded by hundreds or thousands of fighters/destroyers before any acts of aggressiveness or communication out of the system could be taken.

Because only 20-25 years will have passed, it is not necessarily true coms would be in wide use though there might be a space station for civilian including fright (I would put it in Raven Lands) and a Navy base (Claw Island) to conduct periodic transfer to and from the planet but... the inner circle will understand the need to keep the low profile till they are ready to stand up to the Gbaba.

So obviously this comes from someone with too much free time on his hands but, I though I'd share it
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:44 pm

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Just a couple of comments here. The danger from the Gbaba is not that they show up at Safehold, but that as humanity once again enters space that humanity would once again stumble across their territory unaware of the danger and re-ignite the war that led to the extinction of the Terran Federation. That was Pei Shanwei's arguement against snuffing out all knowledge of both technology and history. Langhorne, on the other hand, believed that the best way to avoid the danger was to restrict humanity to a level of tech that would make it impossible for humanity to re-enter space at all.

There is actually no danger of the use of electricity and radio used in and around Safehold alerting the Gbaba to a human presence. The humans of Operation Ark traveled 10 years at hyper speeds to arrive at Safehold. A radio signal would lose its energy and be completely below the level of detectability at that distance. What could alert the Gbaba would be a hypercom signal aimed in the direction of the Gbaba if the signal was powerful enough to communicate over lightyears rather than just miles.

I think that AtSoT, humanity is still decades, if not centuries, away from space. It will go faster than it has in real life, but Safehold at this point is not prepared for even the idea of space let alone going there. This next book will be the steam era. Then after the authority of the proscrptions is overthrown, I would suspect that you will see the introduction of electricity, ices, both gas and diesel, and powered heavier than air flight and so on. How many books it will take to get us to our current level of tech in real life and beyond, I don't know. Owl is there to help things along, but it will take widespread industrializtion to make things go.

As a closing remark, we are on the cusp of entering space now in real life. What prevents us from actually developing the tech to at least explore our solar system is that we are not motivated to devoting the resourses it would take to do so.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by ywing14   » Sun Apr 22, 2018 8:49 pm

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I agree with n7axw. The issue isn't loose emissions it's exploration. In the first book we it's said that the Gbaba were only about 50 years ahead of humans technologically and part of the reason to use the PICA was that it basically combined all the tech humans used to that point so it would be a great way to bootstrap back to that level. Then they would research there way past the level of the Gbaba and only then build ships and fleets to take the fight to them. Shanwei concern was besides the ethical issues in what Langhorn did, humans were essentially an innovative race. No matter what Langhorn and his cronies did eventually innovation would return and people would move to space. If this occurred without the knowledge of the Gbaba it was likely that would stumble into the Gbaba while still technologically inferior to them.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Fireflair   » Sun Apr 22, 2018 11:48 pm

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Something to keep in mind is that we already have manufacturing modules that can build virtually anything that the Teran Federation had before the events of Safehold. Even PICAs, once they get the supplies together.

The industrial modules can build space ships, or more modules, or whatever. They could pull a Von Nueman and start building more modules to build more modules, etc. Give the database that Owl has and the things in Merlin's Cave, they could be in space right away, if they wanted.

Things holding them back are obviously the politics and cultural issues, not to mention the killer satellite floating up there. I doubt we're looking at a 100-200 year before they're in space though. One, the aforementioned modules can get them there almost immediately. Two, Merlin wants to be ready to face the returning Angels and that means people who won't be wow-ed by Terran tech being used by 'angels'. Three, the next arc is rumored to settle the Gbaba.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Mon Apr 23, 2018 12:36 am

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Fireflair wrote:Something to keep in mind is that we already have manufacturing modules that can build virtually anything that the Teran Federation had before the events of Safehold. Even PICAs, once they get the supplies together.

The industrial modules can build space ships, or more modules, or whatever. They could pull a Von Nueman and start building more modules to build more modules, etc. Give the database that Owl has and the things in Merlin's Cave, they could be in space right away, if they wanted.

Things holding them back are obviously the politics and cultural issues, not to mention the killer satellite floating up there. I doubt we're looking at a 100-200 year before they're in space though. One, the aforementioned modules can get them there almost immediately. Two, Merlin wants to be ready to face the returning Angels and that means people who won't be wow-ed by Terran tech being used by 'angels'. Three, the next arc is rumored to settle the Gbaba.



There is a bit more to it than that. While it is true that Owl can supply an enormous amount of technological help as humanity advances, it is still going to take lots of time. At this point, only a tiny number of people are starting to think scientificly, or for that matter, for whom science is not a dirty word, part of Sheiwei's evil. Even on Charis, the scientific revolution is just getting started. For science and technology to advance, there needs to be a strong and widespread educational and industrial base that is prepared for what Owl has to offer. Otherwise it becomes a case of offering pretty trinkets to the natives who have no idea what they are for. A few industrial modules can be a beginning, but compared with what is actually needed, it is a drop in the bucket.

Don

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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Fireflair   » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:24 pm

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Yes, there needs to be cultural change, I don't think anyone denies that and I did bring it up. My point was that there's nothing technology wise or production capability wise which limits Merlin and company from being in space post haste, if they choose.

They're smart enough to understand that they need to get people on Safehold thinking scientifically and to develop a mindset that encourages not just relying on 'magic' devices but thinking past them.

So the notion of a 100-200 year wait is probably pretty excessive. Once people get into the questioning mindset I think they can be pushed along fairly quickly. Remember that when the big reveal happens, even if Safehold has stepped into the 21st century, culturally and so forth, it's still going to be one hell of a shock.

And I stand by my last comment about the next arc dealing with the Gbaba. If they're to be dealt with in a reasonable arc of story time then the MWW won't be taking a couple hundred years to get them off the planet and into space.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:10 am

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Fireflair wrote:Yes, there needs to be cultural change, I don't think anyone denies that and I did bring it up. My point was that there's nothing technology wise or production capability wise which limits Merlin and company from being in space post haste, if they choose.

They're smart enough to understand that they need to get people on Safehold thinking scientifically and to develop a mindset that encourages not just relying on 'magic' devices but thinking past them.

So the notion of a 100-200 year wait is probably pretty excessive. Once people get into the questioning mindset I think they can be pushed along fairly quickly. Remember that when the big reveal happens, even if Safehold has stepped into the 21st century, culturally and so forth, it's still going to be one hell of a shock.

And I stand by my last comment about the next arc dealing with the Gbaba. If they're to be dealt with in a reasonable arc of story time then the MWW won't be taking a couple hundred years to get them off the planet and into space.


There is truth in what you are saying. As far as available tech and production, they could be there tommorrow, using Owls facilities. There is this matter of the OBS and the proscriptions, of course.

My point is that there is going to be lots of groundwork that has to be laid if the rest of the planet or at least a significant portion thereof is to be in on it. Cultural, religious and political factors can be factors as limiting as tech.

There is this segment in BHD where Cayleb has his first encounter with the skimmer where Cayleb asks Merlin if they will be building skimmers during his lifetime.IIRC, Merlin is not sure but he doesn't think so...

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:43 am

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Don,
I see a six pack or a fifth of single malt in this discussion...

Last point first: What is preventing us from actually developing the tech? I can only speak to the USA and my first hand observations... National Policy is set by the President. Not since John F Kennedy has the space program had a high priority and the worse of all outcomes (Nixon hated everything Kennedy and Nixon was in office when the Apollo landings happened) There was no follow up on momentum that Apollo had built up. When the excitement of the US citizen/tax payers was at the height, other programs were funded. The US Space program died on the vine.

There is Text-Ev that the Gbaba found and destroyed another civilization that had not left their own system before humans bumped into them and there is evidence that the planners of Ark expected an exhaustive search for any remnant of humanity they may have missed so the prospect of being found before the humans at Safehold are ready to defend themselves is really rather high.
Say 50% that the Gbaba or some other space faring race stumbles across them and higher than that if humans make the mistake of leaking high tech signals. At the very least, they must design new radio to produce signals that are hidden in the background noise of the star and my second beer says that they ought to make it such that a Gbaba (or any other alien scout) has to get up close and personal to be sure that the humans have the capability.

I read the plan that Shanwei devised as making sure that humans would be ready to kick ass if/when they bumped into the Gbaba again so the plan should provide for a powerful system defense and stealthy scouts to resume human exploration.

The inner circle have the tools to make the tools to make the tools to build star-ships, they don't have the raw materials to build even one more PICA and they have the orbital the Arch Angles clock to be concerned about so... the need for hidden space industry has to be at the top of the list.

True, they don't have to reinvent everything, but there is a lot of infrastructure that must be built up before they are ready to face the Gbaba again.


n7axw wrote:Just a couple of comments here. The danger from the Gbaba is not that they show up at Safehold, but that as humanity once again enters space that humanity would once again stumble across their territory unaware of the danger and re-ignite the war that led to the extinction of the Terran Federation. That was Pei Shanwei's arguement against snuffing out all knowledge of both technology and history. Langhorne, on the other hand, believed that the best way to avoid the danger was to restrict humanity to a level of tech that would make it impossible for humanity to re-enter space at all.

There is actually no danger of the use of electricity and radio used in and around Safehold alerting the Gbaba to a human presence. The humans of Operation Ark traveled 10 years at hyper speeds to arrive at Safehold. A radio signal would lose its energy and be completely below the level of detectability at that distance. What could alert the Gbaba would be a hypercom signal aimed in the direction of the Gbaba if the signal was powerful enough to communicate over lightyears rather than just miles.

I think that AtSoT, humanity is still decades, if not centuries, away from space. It will go faster than it has in real life, but Safehold at this point is not prepared for even the idea of space let alone going there. This next book will be the steam era. Then after the authority of the proscrptions is overthrown, I would suspect that you will see the introduction of electricity, ices, both gas and diesel, and powered heavier than air flight and so on. How many books it will take to get us to our current level of tech in real life and beyond, I don't know. Owl is there to help things along, but it will take widespread industrializtion to make things go.

As a closing remark, we are on the cusp of entering space now in real life. What prevents us from actually developing the tech to at least explore our solar system is that we are not motivated to devoting the resourses it would take to do so.

Don

-
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Joat42   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:06 pm

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C. O. Thompson wrote:..snip..
The inner circle have the tools to make the tools to make the tools to build star-ships, they don't have the raw materials to build even one more PICA and they have the orbital and the Arch Angles clock to be concerned about so... the need for hidden space industry has to be at the top of the list.

True, they don't have to reinvent everything, but there is a lot of infrastructure that must be built up before they are ready to face the Gbaba again.

I think the rebuilding is going to go quite fast, having for example Owl running it means that the rebuild will be more of a geometric progression.

But as you say, the OBS and the return needs to be addressed before that can happen.

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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Apr 25, 2018 12:23 pm

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Joat42 wrote:
C. O. Thompson wrote:..snip..
The inner circle have the tools to make the tools to make the tools to build star-ships, they don't have the raw materials to build even one more PICA and they have the orbital and the Arch Angles clock to be concerned about so... the need for hidden space industry has to be at the top of the list.

True, they don't have to reinvent everything, but there is a lot of infrastructure that must be built up before they are ready to face the Gbaba again.

I think the rebuilding is going to go quite fast, having for example Owl running it means that the rebuild will be more of a geometric progression.

But as you say, the OBS and the return needs to be addressed before that can happen.

The cultural rebuilding will take 2 generations. It will take that long for the NEATs have their impact. As soon as the archangels are discredited, NEAT interfaces can be implanted in children. By the time those children hit 40, 2 generations of NEAT educated adults hit the core working ages. Even if the elder Safeholdians get prolong treatment, they cannot really contribute without the education the NEATs provide. Those folks will begin being set aside in favor of NEAT educated individuals.

Many non-NEAT educated folks will still be able to learn how to do technology well. The majority will not.

As a side effect, I doubt more democratic institutions will arise soon after The Reveal. The disparity between those with NEAT educations and those without will cause all sorts of issues. Especially when the numbers will favor non-NEAT education for decades.
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