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Characters aging before the next story arc.

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Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by Henry Brown   » Sat Feb 18, 2017 9:48 pm

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Ok, if I understand the plan for Safehold, we are going to skip something like 15 or 20 years before the start of the next story arc. This will be great for characters like Hektor and Irys. They are very young as of AtSotT. So they will be in their prime after that kind of time lapse. Cayleb and Sharleyan are also fairly youthful, so they should also be alright after a time lapse.

But what about the older characters in Safehold? It is entirely possible that given that kind of time lapse some of them might die of natural causes. But furthermore: if they are still alive, it is entirely possible that they might be less energetic and less capable due to aging. In particular, I wonder about Duchairn, Howsmyn, and Thirsk. None of them are spring chickens. Will they still be active and in control of their respective areas after that much time?

What do ya'll think? Any characters you think might pass away before the next story arc or who might be diminished by aging in the next story arc?
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by Weird Harold   » Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:55 pm

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Henry Brown wrote:In particular, I wonder about Duchairn, Howsmyn, and Thirsk. None of them are spring chickens. Will they still be active and in control of their respective areas after that much time?


Howsmyn's passing will be sad, but not necessarily catastrophic. He seems to be the type that would have a detailed will and well-trained successor.

Thirsk should be retired from public life, since his time on the regency council will have expired when the prince comes of age. His passing should be relatively uneventful as well. Possibly an opportunity for an informal summit meeting at his funeral, but no more earth-shaking than that.

Duchairn, OTOH, is very likely to leave a power vacuum with his demise. His death is going to generate a power struggle in the Church and Temple Loyalist ranks. If (When) the fundamentalist faction gains control a new Luddite Jihad is going to be declared and we'll be off on the second series.
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

(Now if I could just find the right questions.)
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by Dauntless   » Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:44 am

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if we were given an exact age for him i missed it but what about the archbishop of charis himself. i believe he was of a similar to age to Caleb's father who was about 50? i think.

now admittedly the nanotech will reduce the odds of death via flu or some other disease, but still he is no spring chicken like caleb

He has been so crucial to a lot of the Church of Charis acceptance, while i'm sure that his replacement will be a good man he won't be staynair.
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by PeterZ   » Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:34 pm

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IIRC, nanos can allow its host to live to around 90. Assuming that's an average with some dispersion around that average, I suspect that folks begin to die between 85-100 years old. That's 85-100 Earth years.

As I recall Howsmyn was 35 Earth years old when introduced in OAR. He is 42 now. His mentor Ryan Mikel was 70ish and so will be 92 to 97 when the next arc begins. Odds are Howsmyn will live and his mentor will not.

Archbishop Mikel was 60ish and so will be 85-90 Earth years. Odds suggest he will be around at the start but might not live to see the Proscriptions eliminated. Thirsk was of an age with Mikel and won't have nanos. He won't be around. Duchairn likewise will be gone.

Within the EoC, I'll bet all the staunch allies of the Crown get nanos with or without being brought into the inner circle. The longer those allies live, the longer hey have to shape the mindsets of potential opponents of Charisian social changes. Outliving your enemies is the best way to completely defeat them. That suggests the current Regency Council in Corisande will still be around. Most of the current ministers/councilors will also remain. No doubt Irys will be Nynian's understudy and work with Wavethunder in Intel ops. Hektor will follow suit for the Navy....or Naval Air Corps.
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by shayvaan   » Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:26 pm

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I would imagine that the next series may just well start with Duchairn's death (probably with Maigwair already dead or retired).

This would be a good way to set up a suitably corrupt replacement.

OTOH it may well just start with Duchairn/Maigwair still in charge and Merlin and the Inner Circle really starting to sweat the Return (or perhaps figuring out exactly what it is).

Cahnyr in Glacierheart will almost definitely be gone, probably Seamount and Green Mountain as well.

Many people were never given an age that I am aware of such as Eastshare, Green Valley and Stonahr, so their fate is unknowable.

But it is going to be a very hard time for Merlin and Nimue, as they start losing more and more friends to old age.

Now that I think about it, one or possibly both of them may "retire" and send "replacements" by then :twisted:
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by 6L6   » Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:09 pm

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How far will the inner circle widen by that time?
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by Henry Brown   » Sun Feb 26, 2017 8:28 am

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6L6 wrote:How far will the inner circle widen by that time?


I think the driving force behind the expansion of the inner circle to date has been the war. In order to fight and win the war, Charis HAD to get key members of the military and government into the inner circle and they had to do it quickly. Now that the war is over, I expect the rate of expansion for the inner circle to slow. There still might be some new members, but I bet they will be more cautious about who they approach and they will spend more time vetting potential candidates before the induction.
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by WeberFan   » Fri Mar 03, 2017 4:19 am

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SNIP
shayvaan wrote:I would imagine that the next series may just well start with Duchairn's death (probably with Maigwair already dead or retired).
....
Cahnyr in Glacierheart will almost definitely be gone, probably Seamount and Green Mountain as well.


The next arc could start with the passing of any one of a number of people from "old age" - Duchairn, Howsym, Maikel, or others. But it could also start with the death of someone much younger by some violent means - a "triggering event" if you will. Caleb's slash lizard hunting trip as his first introduction to Merlin immediately comes to mind. One thing I appreciate about David's writing is that he always seems to "grab you by the throat" right from the start with some sort of major event (or the outcome of such an event). :roll:
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by Erls   » Sun Jun 04, 2017 10:00 pm

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Consider this:

20 years of Duchairn has been just enough to stop a Northern Harchong rebellion among the serfs/slaves. Under this assumption, Waters went to S. Harchong with the Mighty Host (and possibly left Harchong to form a new nation-state). Duchairn dies of old age/sickness, allowing hard-core conservatives in N. Harchong to rise to power, igniting a slave rebellion. This rebellion quickly spreads to other lands that have not embraced more liberal economies, such as (for example) Desnair and perhaps Dohlar, and even the Temple Lands themselves.

That is the first part of book 1, with the 2nd being the "1,000 year archangel" waking up. An "archangel" that is, in fact, a PICA of Chihiro/Langhorne/Schueler/etc... This leads to a brutal suppression of slave rebellions as well as a newfound strength of the COGA, culminating in attacks of the Archangel PICA in Siddarmark, Charis, Chisholm, and other lands.

Charis, on the other hand, is spending its time trying to quell the slave rebellions in a peaceful manner while defeating the Archangel PICA. Additionally, Charis is using Armageddon Reef as a "test bed" for new technology. Basically, they are building electrical power stations, transmission lines, and other 'proscribed' technology in AR and allowing it to run for months to test the bounds of the OBS. Once a new technology lasts for half a year without being attacked it is viewed as safe, and then slowly introduced into Charis itself. The thinking is clear: If the OBS isn't triggered by something on AR itself it won't be triggered by it introduced elsewhere.

Book 1 ends with Merlin starting to get a grip on the Archangel PICA. Book 2 ends with Merlin and Nimue finding and defeating the Archangel PICA. Book 3 ends with a surprise assault/launch on the OBS from AR that knocks the OBS out of orbit, and causes another kinetic bombardment of the Reed itself: leading to large scale problems for many coastal cities and the planet itself.
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Re: Characters aging before the next story arc.
Post by Michae   » Mon Jun 05, 2017 5:54 am

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I think any new Luddite Jihad would be bordering on suicidal given the forces that would oppose them. The EOC and their allies would probably be able to deal with it in very short order,before it got very far along,given there experiences with the last Jihad.
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