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Safehold post-Jihad

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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by Keith_w   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:37 am

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PeterZ wrote:Why do the Mighty Host want to destroy the Charisian? The Grand Vicar has agreed that Charis was right all along in their resistance to the G4 excesses. Excess that the Grand Vicar was involved with from the beginning. He agreed that Zhaspar Clyntahn drove the CoGA and the jihadi forces to commit many, many atrocities that the MH participated in. THEY are more guilty of transgressing against God than the Charisians according to the Grand Vicar.

Why would they continue to wish further harm for people they have already unjustly harmed in the name of following orders of a corrupt Church leader? Many devout jihadis would want to expiate the harm they did. That includes the Might Host.


Because they are, for the most part, true believers who are deeply committed to the Writ, and probably deeply resent their defeat? Possibly their children or grandchildren might get over it, but their fathers and mothers will not.
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A common mistake people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:30 am

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Many in Harchong are True Believers and would see both Charis and the Grand Vicar as corrupting the True Church. Many more fought to defend the CoGA in a jihad the CoGA called. The former will continue to see Charis as an enemy. The latter will face a moral quandary. They fought as the Church asked of them, but the Church leaders were in error. How much were they culpable for supporting the CoGA' leadership's error?

If they are loyal to the Church, they will ponder this question. If they are loyal to the doctrine that drove Clyntahn, the will believe the new CoGA is corrupted. Given the atrocities the MH saw in the concentration camps, there will be far fewer of the MH who are loyal to Clyntahn's doctrines. Add to that propensity the MH leadership who are as socially liberal as Harchong aristos can be and the result is a group of Temple Loyalists with a vested interest in not being Harchongese social reactionaries.

Where will socially liberal Harchongese serfs settle? Not in Harchong if the Harchong reactionaries have their way. South Harchong might tolerate them, but why would the Northern aristos allow further pollution of the South? Cayleb might want to inflict disruption upon North Harchong, but those aristos would kill every single member of the MH before they allow the MH to return. Using the MH as a force against Desnair is acceptable, but only if the Grand Vicar doesn't raise objections. Green Tree Island might work, but would require an even greater logistical effort. Siddermark? I doubt Stonahr would allow such a military force to threaten his people. I doubt the Border Kingdoms would he happy having a foreign force all but occupy them. They could settle in the Temple Lands, but that would also be destabilizing.

Silverlode offers the least disruptive and most productive alternative. The incentives/benefits to accept the MH is far higher than the cost of having them immigrate. The increased productivity those bodies translate to in Charis is far greater than in any other nation. As Silverlode is terra formed, the additional labor freed up from the agricultural sector elsewhere in the EoC will be huge. The EoC's population will grow much more quickly. That means the EoC's economy will grow that much faster.

What better way to advertise that the Empire of Charis a refuge for anyone who is persecuted than to accept former enemies threatened by their own nation? Here Cayleb and Sharley stand, they can do no other!
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by isaac_newton   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 12:31 pm

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PeterZ wrote:SNIP
Where will socially liberal Harchongese serfs settle? Not in Harchong if the Harchong reactionaries have their way. South Harchong might tolerate them, but why would the Northern aristos allow further pollution of the South? Cayleb might want to inflict disruption upon North Harchong, but those aristos would kill every single member of the MH before they allow the MH to return. Using the MH as a force against Desnair is acceptable, but only if the Grand Vicar doesn't raise objections. Green Tree Island might work, but would require an even greater logistical effort. Siddermark? I doubt Stonahr would allow such a military force to threaten his people. I doubt the Border Kingdoms would he happy having a foreign force all but occupy them. They could settle in the Temple Lands, but that would also be destabilizing.
SNIP!


1) I dont see how the North Harchong Aristos can have much influence upon South Harchong given that there is no direct land connection and Charis Navy is between. If the leading lights in the South wanted the remains of the MH I dont see that the northern elites could stop them.

2)Maybe if the MH returned in dribs and drabs to NH, then they would be in for a sticky time, BUT if they returned en-mass [armed of course] then who could stop them in NH. Battled hardened, skilled and a large large number - after all, how much of the army is left in NH, and what skill level does it have?
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 1:22 pm

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isaac_newton wrote:
1) I dont see how the North Harchong Aristos can have much influence upon South Harchong given that there is no direct land connection and Charis Navy is between. If the leading lights in the South wanted the remains of the MH I dont see that the northern elites could stop them.

2)Maybe if the MH returned in dribs and drabs to NH, then they would be in for a sticky time, BUT if they returned en-mass [armed of course] then who could stop them in NH. Battled hardened, skilled and a large large number - after all, how much of the army is left in NH, and what skill level does it have?


1) My read suggests that the aristocrats of the North still set policy for the South. If the South decides to rebel, of course they can succeed. Will they secede from the Empire over the disposition of the Mighty Host? Not sure if they are ready to do that.

2) How can the MH return en masse when they are dependent on the canals and the Temple Lands to let them return at all? Will the Temple Lands soo offend their Western neighbors by letting the MH return in ways that would spark a massive rebellion? I doubt it.

The question of the Mighty Host's return depends on how much change the Grand Vicar wants to force down North Harchong's throat. Any amount will cause issues between Harchong and the Temple. Too many changes will invite a beginning of the Church of Harchong much more quickly than the Grand Vicar might anticipate. More changes yet will cause an open rebellion in Harchong. I doubt Duchairn will want to tread that closely to disaster or another schism.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by John Prigent   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:09 pm

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Exactly how could the Temple Lands stop the Mighty Host? You've said that if the MH is armed the North Harchongese can't stop them - surely the same applies to crossing the Temple Lands. I can't imagine that the TLers have numbers or weapons to match the MH.
Cheers, John

PeterZ wrote:
isaac_newton wrote:
1) I dont see how the North Harchong Aristos can have much influence upon South Harchong given that there is no direct land connection and Charis Navy is between. If the leading lights in the South wanted the remains of the MH I dont see that the northern elites could stop them.

2)Maybe if the MH returned in dribs and drabs to NH, then they would be in for a sticky time, BUT if they returned en-mass [armed of course] then who could stop them in NH. Battled hardened, skilled and a large large number - after all, how much of the army is left in NH, and what skill level does it have?


1) My read suggests that the aristocrats of the North still set policy for the South. If the South decides to rebel, of course they can succeed. Will they secede from the Empire over the disposition of the Mighty Host? Not sure if they are ready to do that.

2) How can the MH return en masse when they are dependent on the canals and the Temple Lands to let them return at all? Will the Temple Lands soo offend their Western neighbors by letting the MH return in ways that would spark a massive rebellion? I doubt it.

The question of the Mighty Host's return depends on how much change the Grand Vicar wants to force down North Harchong's throat. Any amount will cause issues between Harchong and the Temple. Too many changes will invite a beginning of the Church of Harchong much more quickly than the Grand Vicar might anticipate. More changes yet will cause an open rebellion in Harchong. I doubt Duchairn will want to tread that closely to disaster or another schism.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by thanatos   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:39 pm

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The idea of settling the MH within the EOC itself, sounds too much like wishful thinking. First of all, we're talking about 3 million men who would need to be shipped out and that means thousands of troops transports, weeks (if not months) of travel, food for all of them and housing at the end of the trip. And that assumes those 3 million want to leave the mainland (and their homes and families) for a new life in an empire that the CoGA has been telling them is heretical for the last 5-8 years (and sacrificed children to Shan-wei no less). Add the "demonic" steam-powered ships and I seriously doubt they'd agree to board. And that assumes the EOC would want to help the CoGA and the Harchong Empire by taking these forces off of their hands. And it assumes Grand Vicar Rhobair and Vicar Allayn wouldn't think it was a bad idea.

Besides, most of the drafted serfs don't quite realize the threat they now pose to the Harchongian aristocracy and and bureaucracy - They just want to go home, having fulfilled their duty to mother church. It would take months, if not years for the usual sentiments of entitlement to surface. As for free thinking, that would certainly take longer among serfs who've been taught for years to know their place in the social hierarchy. So no, the MH is going to remain a mainland problem and South Harchong might be happy to absorb them, especially if it allows them to throw off the yoke of Shang-mi. Merlin did envision a civil war in the future, after all.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by wingfield   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:32 pm

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Leaving aside the logistics (and the politics) of resettling the MEN of the MH anywhere, there remains the near certainty that their families will not be allowed to join them.

These women and children remain untainted by any perceived heretical stain. Who among them would receive letters from their illiterate menfolk or an other form of news? Their value as serfs in a totally unreformed North Harchong polity would dictate strongly that they be kept in situ.

Now I wonder just what pressures are going to build in the management of the MH, wherever it may be from day to day and in the longer term, while its rank and file increasingly want to rejoin their loved ones.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:33 pm

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John Prigent wrote:Exactly how could the Temple Lands stop the Mighty Host? You've said that if the MH is armed the North Harchongese can't stop them - surely the same applies to crossing the Temple Lands. I can't imagine that the TLers have numbers or weapons to match the MH.
Cheers, John


Will the MH threaten the Temple Lands to give them passage with their arms back to North Harchong? That's darn near 3 million men moving several thousand miles to the Harchong border. From there more thousands of miles to the capital and the rest of Harchong in a campaign to subdue the nation. Does the Host have the necessary wagons and draft animals to make the trek? If they don't, who will provide what they don't have?

I can see the Mighty Host conquering the immediate area with their own resources, but not move that entire force across half the continent. How will they compel the Temple Lands and the CoGA to provide that assistance without being just as rebellious as Charis was to begin the jihad.

So, if Harchong demands that the CoGA NOT allow the MH to return and the Grand Vicar acquiesces, how will RW and the MH force their return? I don't believe they can.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by John Prigent   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 5:43 pm

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Yes, exactly. That the same 3 million armed men who came in the opposite direction (not necessarily by the same route, though), still with the same draft animals, wagons etc that they used on the first trip. Or are you assuming that those have all gone away and the MH was going to man-carry everything if it went into action as Clytahn had planned?

Cheers, John

PeterZ wrote:
John Prigent wrote:Exactly how could the Temple Lands stop the Mighty Host? You've said that if the MH is armed the North Harchongese can't stop them - surely the same applies to crossing the Temple Lands. I can't imagine that the TLers have numbers or weapons to match the MH.
Cheers, John


Will the MH threaten the Temple Lands to give them passage with their arms back to North Harchong? That's darn near 3 million men moving several thousand miles to the Harchong border. From there more thousands of miles to the capital and the rest of Harchong in a campaign to subdue the nation. Does the Host have the necessary wagons and draft animals to make the trek? If they don't, who will provide what they don't have?

I can see the Mighty Host conquering the immediate area with their own resources, but not move that entire force across half the continent. How will they compel the Temple Lands and the CoGA to provide that assistance without being just as rebellious as Charis was to begin the jihad.

So, if Harchong demands that the CoGA NOT allow the MH to return and the Grand Vicar acquiesces, how will RW and the MH force their return? I don't believe they can.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:45 pm

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wingfield wrote:Leaving aside the logistics (and the politics) of resettling the MEN of the MH anywhere, there remains the near certainty that their families will not be allowed to join them.

These women and children remain untainted by any perceived heretical stain. Who among them would receive letters from their illiterate menfolk or an other form of news? Their value as serfs in a totally unreformed North Harchong polity would dictate strongly that they be kept in situ.

Now I wonder just what pressures are going to build in the management of the MH, wherever it may be from day to day and in the longer term, while its rank and file increasingly want to rejoin their loved ones.


I see two things working in the direction of moving to the EoC.
1- Promising that the families will join them will be a good inducement for the MH to relocate.

2- If a suitable bribe were offered to the bureaucrats, they would find a way to let those dependents join the MH in Silverlode.

Why should the EoC effectively buy 5-7 million people? As an investment in the economic growth of their nation, those people will generate an incremental annual return in increased GDP. Morally, these people will be given MUCH better living conditions as Charisian citizens. Geopolitically, Charis bolsters its image following the spirit of the Writ and provides a subtle economic poison to Harchong.

Poison, you ask? Yes, poison. By reducing the working labor force and increasing the money in circulation, Charis will increase the inflationary forces upon Harchong. That will expedite the stresses which will lead to unrest in Harchong. If Cayleb continues to encourage Charisians to bribe Harchong bureaucrats to free Harchongese serfs, the stresses get worse and the incentives for the bureaucrats get higher to continue. I am sure that family members already in Charis will pool money to bring more people over. Since inflation will rise quickly in Harchong, the aristos and bureaucrats will likely buy from Charisian suppliers. South Harchong will see inflation hit them a bit too, so Charisian goods will likely remain significantly cheaper than even they can produce.

I am not seeing too many downsides to this.
Last edited by PeterZ on Fri Jan 13, 2017 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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