Safehold post-Jihad

PeterZ wrote:Agreed, Wingfield. Not sure how many people might be freed this way. One suspects that quite a few women and children, especially girls might be freed. Women contribute less to a muscle powered economy than men, eh? Of course, they also expedite population growth. So, beyond the MH, emigrants will be women and children. Older men who are still productive will likely not be allowed emigrate. Their wives will also not leave. Widows and younger women will be allowed.

Women contribute less...no. Men dig ditches. Women weave cloth for sale and do as much or more.

Keith_w wrote:The church didn't recruit the mighty host, the Harchongese did. They were serfs, effectively slaves. Why would the Harchongese or the Jihadist church care where they came from. The Harchongese knew they wouldn't want them back because they were trained soldiers.

North Harchong is, IIRC, described as dominated by a bureaucracy much like Imperial China. If true, the Bureaucrats will know where each and every soldier in the MH came from, and what dependents/family they might have. If nothing else, the Landlord should be due some tax break proportional to the lost labor of the soldiers contributed to the MH.

I'm not at all sure that that's true. Although we routinely compare Harchong to Imperial China, I suspect that it's largely out of ignorance - of both China and Harchong, actually.

The bureaucracy would only care about accurate population records if the tax system is based on a poll tax the way Rome was. If they're taxing either land or revenue - and revenue is more likely, given their responsibility for collecting tithes as well - the number of bodies in a household isn't of much concern. And at least in serf households, _who_ they are is of even less concern. Landlords, or estate managers, at any rate, probably do concern themselves with household composition to the extent that they would want to ensure that whatever work is assigned will be completed - but probably only to the extent of "no working-age males? OK, Jin Yng, Woo Han and Jun Wing get your fields." "What? Food? Talk to them about what you're going to eat!" [it wouldn't be nearly that simple, I imagine, depending on just how the various elements of the economy are organised on the estates, but that's the ballpark]

Incidentally, the stability of Harchong makes me think that whatever their tax system is, it must be remarkably hard to fiddle. Neither serfdom nor large bureaucratic empires are particularly stable entities. No Chinese dynasty maintained effective central control for more than about 350 years - many didn't manage 200 - and except for the Yuan probably the biggest single stumbling block for all of them was the tax system becoming wildly inequitable [the Yuan, a.k.a. the Mongols, stumbled over not being Chinese and not pretending they were]. At which point the peasants would come over the walls, lynch the last of the current dynasty and put someone else on the Throne. Often enough, one of their own - China showed a surprising amount of upward mobility in that regard. Whatever the role of the Church in Safehold society and politics, if that was happening in Harchong the place would be blowing up on a regular basis.

Weird Harold wrote:

Keith_w wrote:The church didn't recruit the mighty host, the Harchongese did. They were serfs, effectively slaves. Why would the Harchongese or the Jihadist church care where they came from. The Harchongese knew they wouldn't want them back because they were trained soldiers.

North Harchong is, IIRC, described as dominated by a bureaucracy much like Imperial China. If true, the Bureaucrats will know where each and every soldier in the MH came from, and what dependents/family they might have. If nothing else, the Landlord should be due some tax break proportional to the lost labor of the soldiers contributed to the MH.

Keith_w wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Harchong can threaten another schism. If the Grand Vicar allows the return of the MH, Harchong keeps its tithes and established the CoGA-Harchong. That church will reinvigorate the Inauisition to Clyntahn levels. So Duchairn faces the choice of goading Harchong into a rebellion when his church is so disordered or postponing the inevitable until he has his house in better order. Anyone with a brain knows Harchong is in for a nasty rebellion. The only questions are when and who will be able to help the people of Harchong pick up the pieces?

The Harchongese CoGA has already schismed by refusing to obey the Grand Vicar with regard to the Inquisition. It does not have to reinvigorate the Inquisition to Clyntahn levels, it is still there.

But they haven't yet. They are resisting the defanging of the Inquisition, but have already sworn loyalty to the Grand Vicar. The CoGA in Harchong haven't disobeyed the grand Vicar yet. They still could either comply or openly reject the reforms Duchairn has implemented.

If their line in the sand is the return of those martially trained serfs, will Duchairn choose to allow those troops to return or find another home for them? I believe Duchairn will choose to find another home. That home will likely be in South Harchong or some out-island like Silverlode. The concern that North Harchong might have with those troops in South Harchong is the possibility that the South will rebel. If the assert their independence, how will North Harchong stop them? Those troops will give South Harchong the decisive advantage in any confrontation with the North.

phillies wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Agreed, Wingfield. Not sure how many people might be freed this way. One suspects that quite a few women and children, especially girls might be freed. Women contribute less to a muscle powered economy than men, eh? Of course, they also expedite population growth. So, beyond the MH, emigrants will be women and children. Older men who are still productive will likely not be allowed emigrate. Their wives will also not leave. Widows and younger women will be allowed.

Women contribute less...no. Men dig ditches. Women weave cloth for sale and do as much or more.

Indeed. Yet, planting the fiber crop and harvesting that crop will be more efficiently done with male muscle labor. Muscle labor will be the bottleneck for any non-powered industry. Given any number of men in a muscle powered economy, the number of women needed will be a fraction of the number of men. It takes more men to plant, harvest and transport cotton than women to spin, dye and weave it into fabric. The same applies to finishing any textiles.

PeterZ wrote:

phillies wrote:
Women contribute less...no. Men dig ditches. Women weave cloth for sale and do as much or more.

Indeed. Yet, planting the fiber crop and harvesting that crop will be more efficiently done with male muscle labor. Muscle labor will be the bottleneck for any non-powered industry. Given any number of men in a muscle powered economy, the number of women needed will be a fraction of the number of men. It takes more men to plant, harvest and transport cotton than women to spin, dye and weave it into fabric. The same applies to finishing any textiles.

Silk is not like that. Also, if China is the example, cotton is not like that. Steelthistle is all the hand labor of removing the seeds, at least until the gin comes along.

PeterZ wrote:
But they haven't yet. They are resisting the defanging of the Inquisition, but have already sworn loyalty to the Grand Vicar. The CoGA in Harchong haven't disobeyed the grand Vicar yet. They still could either comply or openly reject the reforms Duchairn has implemented.

If their line in the sand is the return of those martially trained serfs, will Duchairn choose to allow those troops to return or find another home for them? I believe Duchairn will choose to find another home. That home will likely be in South Harchong or some out-island like Silverlode. The concern that North Harchong might have with those troops in South Harchong is the possibility that the South will rebel. If the assert their independence, how will North Harchong stop them? Those troops will give South Harchong the decisive advantage in any confrontation with the North.

South Harchong probably, but that assumes North Harchong might not see the threat of handing over an well-trained army of 2-3 million serfs to the decidedly "un-Harchongian" provinces of the Empire. For that very reason, I would think that someone in the Temple might not like the idea of shipping off 2-3 million well-trained serfs to Charis, with or without their families. Someone like Allayn Magwair might just have a thing or two to say against such a move, especially if he is looking to rebuild the Army of God in post-Jihad Safehold. Can anyone really see Magwair agree to handing over more troops to Charis, even as an expedient? And again, this all assumes the troops in question with agree to leave their homes, and possibly their families as well, to the previously slandered and maligned heretical Empire of Charis.

And that's another thing. RFC has stated on numerous occasions that the Group of Four had no official or legal authority to dictate policy for the Church. It was in every respect an ad hoc arrangement that hid behind the official authority of the Grand Vicar, with Zhamsyn Trynair controlling him (at least at first). It was Trynair who established the Go4 as defense against Clyntahn's rising power as Grand Inquisitor. He had hoped to limit it to a Group of Three, but Magwair at the time had turned out to be too weak on his own - and so he added Duchairn. But who and what would support Duchairn's Grand Vicarship? Magwair obviously, whose opinion on military matters (and on maintaining the Church's army just as a matter of long-term survival) would carry a lot of weight. But that and Duchairn's moral authority alone wouldn't be enough. And they'd also need to finance themselves when the Church is not only broke, but heavily in debt. And I can easily see Siddarmark demanding, as a condition for peace, not only the repayment of the debts the Church repudiated after the Sword of Schueler, but also compensation for the damages caused by the Sword of Schueler (purely as a "goodwill gesture", to prove the Church's desire for reconciliation). But who else is left to support Duchairn within the Church?

thanatos wrote:South Harchong probably, but that assumes North Harchong might not see the threat of handing over an well-trained army of 2-3 million serfs to the decidedly "un-Harchongian" provinces of the Empire. For that very reason, I would think that someone in the Temple might not like the idea of shipping off 2-3 million well-trained serfs to Charis, with or without their families. Someone like Allayn Magwair might just have a thing or two to say against such a move, especially if he is looking to rebuild the Army of God in post-Jihad Safehold. Can anyone really see Magwair agree to handing over more troops to Charis, even as an expedient? And again, this all assumes the troops in question with agree to leave their homes, and possibly their families as well, to the previously slandered and maligned heretical Empire of Charis.

I can see that. I wonder if the MH will end up in the Temple Lands? Can the Temple Lands assimilate that many people? Will Siddermark feel comfortable with those troops so close to their border? There are pros and cons for any decision made regarding those troops. I wonder which way RFC will take this dilemma?

thanatos wrote:<snip>
And that's another thing. RFC has stated on numerous occasions that the Group of Four had no official or legal authority to dictate policy for the Church. It was in every respect an ad hoc arrangement that hid behind the official authority of the Grand Vicar, with Zhamsyn Trynair controlling him (at least at first). It was Trynair who established the Go4 as defense against Clyntahn's rising power as Grand Inquisitor. He had hoped to limit it to a Group of Three, but Magwair at the time had turned out to be too weak on his own - and so he added Duchairn. But who and what would support Duchairn's Grand Vicarship? Magwair obviously, whose opinion on military matters (and on maintaining the Church's army just as a matter of long-term survival) would carry a lot of weight. But that and Duchairn's moral authority alone wouldn't be enough. And they'd also need to finance themselves when the Church is not only broke, but heavily in debt. And I can easily see Siddarmark demanding, as a condition for peace, not only the repayment of the debts the Church repudiated after the Sword of Schueler, but also compensation for the damages caused by the Sword of Schueler (purely as a "goodwill gesture", to prove the Church's desire for reconciliation). But who else is left to support Duchairn within the Church?

Within the church, Duchairn is supported by Magwair and the AOG, and after what they have been through with Clyntahn over the last few years, some of the vicarate will probably welcome any reasonable voice in charge. As for the rest, they will have to move cautiously, for fear of not only the AOG (who are now probably present in strength), but the common people of Zion (i.e. the mob), you know the ones that killed the street inquisitors?

More importantly who is left to oppose Duchairn? Clyntahn would tolerate only four types of vicars.
1. Vociferous supporters
2. Those controlled through blackmail
3. Those he believed either cowed and
4. Those who were completely indispensable.

Groups 1 and 2 are probably the ones awaiting trial
Group 4 was probably only Duchairn and Magwair
Most of group 3 would probably be the ones supporting Duchairn, with the rest looking over their shoulders at the AOG and the mob.

Finances will probably recover relatively quickly since the church no longer has to support armies in the field.
Reparations to Siddarmark COULD be a thorny issue, but I would imagine that Cayleb/Sharleyan would at least try to get Stohnar to limit how much they took from the church, or at least give them a reasonable payment schedule, no sense in undoing the whole reason they supported Duchairn in the first place, by having the ecomomy of the Temple Lands go down the drain because of them.

shayvaan wrote:Finances will probably recover relatively quickly since the church no longer has to support armies in the field.

Until the MH is safely stashed somewhere that they can be demobilized, Duchairn had better be supporting them. Leaving several million armed men with no option but to forage from "friendly" territory is a severely bad idea.