Safehold post-Jihad

John Prigent wrote:Yes, exactly. That the same 3 million armed men who came in the opposite direction (not necessarily by the same route, though), still with the same draft animals, wagons etc that they used on the first trip. Or are you assuming that those have all gone away and the MH was going to man-carry everything if it went into action as Clytahn had planned?

Cheers, John

PeterZ wrote:
I see two things working in the direction of moving to the EoC.
1- Promising that the families will join them will be a good inducement for the MH to relocate.

2- If a suitable bribe were offered to the bureaucrats, they would find a way to let those dependents join the MH in Silverlode.

Why should the EoC effectively buy 5-7 million people? As an investment in the economic growth of their nation, those people will generate an incremental annual return in increased GDP. Morally, these people will be given MUCH better living conditions as Charisian citizens. Geopolitically, Charis bolsters its image following the spirit of the Writ and provides a subtle economic poison to Harchong.

Poison, you ask? Yes, poison. By reducing the working labor force and increasing the money in circulation, Charis will increase the inflationary forces upon Harchong. That will expedite the stresses which will lead to unrest in Harchong. If Cayleb continues to encourage Charisians to bribe Harchong bureaucrats to free Harchongese serfs, the stresses get worse and the incentives for the bureaucrats get higher to continue. I am sure that family members already in Charis will pool money to bring more people over. Since inflation will rise quickly in Harchong, the aristos and bureaucrats will likely buy from Charisian suppliers. South Harchong will see inflation hit them a bit too, so Charisian goods will likely remain significantly cheaper than even they can produce.

I am not seeing too many downsides to this.

PeterZ wrote:Many in Harchong are True Believers and would see both Charis and the Grand Vicar as corrupting the True Church. Many more fought to defend the CoGA in a jihad the CoGA called. The former will continue to see Charis as an enemy. The latter will face a moral quandary. They fought as the Church asked of them, but the Church leaders were in error. How much were they culpable for supporting the CoGA' leadership's error?

If they are loyal to the Church, they will ponder this question. If they are loyal to the doctrine that drove Clyntahn, the will believe the new CoGA is corrupted. Given the atrocities the MH saw in the concentration camps, there will be far fewer of the MH who are loyal to Clyntahn's doctrines. Add to that propensity the MH leadership who are as socially liberal as Harchong aristos can be and the result is a group of Temple Loyalists with a vested interest in not being Harchongese social reactionaries.

Where will socially liberal Harchongese serfs settle? Not in Harchong if the Harchong reactionaries have their way. South Harchong might tolerate them, but why would the Northern aristos allow further pollution of the South? Cayleb might want to inflict disruption upon North Harchong, but those aristos would kill every single member of the MH before they allow the MH to return. Using the MH as a force against Desnair is acceptable, but only if the Grand Vicar doesn't raise objections. Green Tree Island might work, but would require an even greater logistical effort. Siddermark? I doubt Stonahr would allow such a military force to threaten his people. I doubt the Border Kingdoms would he happy having a foreign force all but occupy them. They could settle in the Temple Lands, but that would also be destabilizing.

Silverlode offers the least disruptive and most productive alternative. The incentives/benefits to accept the MH is far higher than the cost of having them immigrate. The increased productivity those bodies translate to in Charis is far greater than in any other nation. As Silverlode is terra formed, the additional labor freed up from the agricultural sector elsewhere in the EoC will be huge. The EoC's population will grow much more quickly. That means the EoC's economy will grow that much faster.

What better way to advertise that the Empire of Charis a refuge for anyone who is persecuted than to accept former enemies threatened by their own nation? Here Cayleb and Sharley stand, they can do no other!

wingfield wrote:Leaving aside the logistics (and the politics) of resettling the MEN of the MH anywhere, there remains the near certainty that their families will not be allowed to join them.

These women and children remain untainted by any perceived heretical stain. Who among them would receive letters from their illiterate menfolk or an other form of news? Their value as serfs in a totally unreformed North Harchong polity would dictate strongly that they be kept in situ.

Now I wonder just what pressures are going to build in the management of the MH, wherever it may be from day to day and in the longer term, while its rank and file increasingly want to rejoin their loved ones.

Keith_w wrote:From what I read, all in North Harchong are true believers, and the church hierarchy are maintaining the same structure as before the failure of the Jihad and reformation of the CoGA, so they already believe that the new church is corrupt or are, at least, unwilling to give up the privileges of power.

What socially liberal serfs? What text evidence do you have that any of the North Harchongese serfs are far enough advanced to be sufficiently socially aware enough to be liberal about anything except the wish to throw off their chains? For the most part they seem to be a loyal to the church as the non-serf part of North Harchongese society. The best place for them to go is back to North Harchong and overturn the existing social order, they have nothing to lose but their chains!

PeterZ wrote:Socially liberal serfs or those serfs willing to rebel and overturn the current social order. That include in all likelihood a large majority of the Mighty Host. The North Harchong leadership know this. Why would they let those rebels in waiting return? Why won't they use all in their power to persuade/compel the Grand Vicar to bless their decision not to let the MH to return anywhere within the Empire? What makes anyone think they will fail in their effort?

That leaves the MH without a home. They can force their way back, but have to fight he entire way back. Once they return they fight some more as North Harchong tries to kill them all to prevent a rebellion. Given a choice between fighting Mother Church just to return to fight a rebellion and consecrating land of a nation that WANTS them as citizens and has shown a loyalty to their citizens who were once enemies, the choice is easy. Charis!

PeterZ wrote:Harchong can threaten another schism. If the Grand Vicar allows the return of the MH, Harchong keeps its tithes and established the CoGA-Harchong. That church will reinvigorate the Inauisition to Clyntahn levels. So Duchairn faces the choice of goading Harchong into a rebellion when his church is so disordered or postponing the inevitable until he has his house in better order. Anyone with a brain knows Harchong is in for a nasty rebellion. The only questions are when and who will be able to help the people of Harchong pick up the pieces?

If the rebellion kicks off now, the CoGA and Duchairn don't have the resources to pull Harchong out of the muck. Charis does. They will be in position to re-form Harchong not Duchairn. Since, Staynair has asserted the CoC does not meddle in international politics but limits itself to shepherding souls, Cayleb and Sharleyan, secular rulers, will re-form Harchong society. If Duchairn can delay the rebellion, his CoGA will reform Harchong. Duchairn still believes that his church is the institution The Writ speaks of and it is now his responsibility to shepherd Safehold in accordance to God's will. Would he abrogate this responsibility to secular rulers, no matter their reputation for justice? I think not.

Worse yet, if Harchong erupts into civil war, how will the Episcopates of the Temple Lands react? If they push to support different factions, how will the CoGA re-establish itself post jihad? Allowing the MH back into Harchong is frought with danger for the CoGA and Duchairn.

With regards to MH dependents, the church keeps records. The members of the MH gives names and parishes where their loved ones live and let the church identify them. I am sure the bureaucrats will help. Letting the dependents go will mollify the Grand Vicar and provide more reasons for those troops to turn their backs and forget Harchong for good. Besides if Cayleb of Charis will pay to send those dependents to the MH, why not pad the list a bit and send more people. The aristos won't care so long as they see their demesnes as being secured.