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Safehold post-Jihad

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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by Keith_w   » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:54 am

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thanatos wrote:
Peter2 wrote:<Snipped for Brevity>
Moreover, if confronted with a unified military force of 3 million battle-hardened veterans against the toughest opponents on Safehold and under the competent leadership of Rainbow Waters, those same Harchongese bureaucrats might eventually decide to cut a deal with the Church despite their current attitude, especially if the alternative is those soldiers turning to brigandage along the border with the Temple Lands (which are likely to be the most orthodox areas).


Most of the MH are not battle hardened. They are highly trained, and inured to hardship but most of them did not face the Empire troops who were cleverly thrown at a limited section of the lines of entrenched MH and the temple army.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by Louis R   » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:06 pm

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I fear you're missing the point, even if you weren't in fact quite, quite wrong.

To the second part first: archeological evidence suggests that spinning and weaving have been primarily women's activities since the first fibres were twisted together. IIRC, the first solid evidence for textile manufacture [which actually comes from a point when it's pretty advanced] is the spindle whorls found in _female_ burials. More to the point, there is correspondence recovered from the Assyrian entrepots in the Hittite empire. It is clear that in a typical trading family the women were at home in Assur and Nineveh manufacturing the cloth - and buying the wool, and running all the other aspects of a manufacturing business - that the men were off selling in Hattusas and Kanesh. Although the women don't generally seem to have been economic players on quite that level elsewhere, that pattern is evident in physical and documentary evidence extending a couple of millenia and many thousand kilometers either side of the Middle Assyrian kingdoms.

To return to George's actual point, 'women's work' has been crucial to the household economy - or its very survival, as far as that goes - in pretty much any culture before the modern period. And well into the modern period, for many. The evidence from medieval Western Europe, for example, is that while the men put a lot of the food on the table and wood in the fireplace, most or all the cash income of households outside of towns came from products made by women [often, as it happens, yarn and cloth], something that was true reaching a good long way up into the aristocracy. In towns, of course, the proportion would be lower, but if I'm remembering my sources correctly [don't have access ATM] for a lot of households - perhaps a third or more - as much as half of cash income would derive from thing the women made.

The conceit that women don't contribute much is an artifact of the late 19th and 20th century upper-middle classes. The rest of the world has always known better.

Peter2 wrote:
phillies wrote:

Women contribute less...no. Men dig ditches. Women weave cloth for sale and do as much or more.


That is a very modern point of view. I have seen documentation from ca. 1800 giving a list of men's names, together with their trades or professions. One man was described as a "spinster", i.e. a man who spun wool into thread. In the days before the spinning mule, spinning wasn't necessarily a woman's job.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by Peter2   » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:57 pm

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What I wrote was "In the days before the spinning mule, spinning wasn't necessarily a woman's job." Can I emphasise the "necessarily"? I didn't say, or mean, exclusively, or even predominantly. What I was saying is that there is evidence that both women and men were involved in this trade. I have seen and held the evidence for that – I grew up in a town whose dominant industry for over 150 years had been the manufacture of woollen textiles, I worked in the mills for a time, and I knew a lot of the men and women involved in all aspects of the trade.

Louis R wrote:I fear you're missing the point, even if you weren't in fact quite, quite wrong.

To the second part first: archeological evidence suggests that spinning and weaving have been primarily women's activities since the first fibres were twisted together. IIRC, the first solid evidence for textile manufacture [which actually comes from a point when it's pretty advanced] is the spindle whorls found in _female_ burials. More to the point, there is correspondence recovered from the Assyrian entrepots in the Hittite empire. It is clear that in a typical trading family the women were at home in Assur and Nineveh manufacturing the cloth - and buying the wool, and running all the other aspects of a manufacturing business - that the men were off selling in Hattusas and Kanesh. Although the women don't generally seem to have been economic players on quite that level elsewhere, that pattern is evident in physical and documentary evidence extending a couple of millenia and many thousand kilometers either side of the Middle Assyrian kingdoms.

To return to George's actual point, 'women's work' has been crucial to the household economy - or its very survival, as far as that goes - in pretty much any culture before the modern period. And well into the modern period, for many. The evidence from medieval Western Europe, for example, is that while the men put a lot of the food on the table and wood in the fireplace, most or all the cash income of households outside of towns came from products made by women [often, as it happens, yarn and cloth], something that was true reaching a good long way up into the aristocracy. In towns, of course, the proportion would be lower, but if I'm remembering my sources correctly [don't have access ATM] for a lot of households - perhaps a third or more - as much as half of cash income would derive from thing the women made.

The conceit that women don't contribute much is an artifact of the late 19th and 20th century upper-middle classes. The rest of the world has always known better.

Peter2 wrote:
phillies wrote

Women contribute less...no. Men dig ditches. Women weave cloth for sale and do as much or more.


That is a very modern point of view. I have seen documentation from ca. 1800 giving a list of men's names, together with their trades or professions. One man was described as a "spinster", i.e. a man who spun wool into thread. In the days before the spinning mule, spinning wasn't necessarily a woman's job.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by Louis R   » Thu Feb 02, 2017 5:12 pm

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(note: citation path mis-snipped. corrected.)

I assume you're using most in the sense of 'majority'. If so, you're probably not correct. It's not clear how much of the MH was in the positions that were directly attacked [recall that the Southern Host was also engaged by the end] but once they'd been bounced out of those lines Rainbow Waters was pushing a lot of his reserve forward into the various blocking positions he tried to hold between the Forest and the border. It looks to me as if by the time the fighting ended a _lot_ of them will at least have come under fire; the majority will probably have been cycled through the front lines.

Although, now that I think about it, that's probably only correct for the original Host. I'm not at all sure how many of the second wave made it to the front. If none at all, then you might well be right, in the end.

Keith_w wrote:
thanatos wrote:<Snipped for Brevity>
Moreover, if confronted with a unified military force of 3 million battle-hardened veterans against the toughest opponents on Safehold and under the competent leadership of Rainbow Waters, those same Harchongese bureaucrats might eventually decide to cut a deal with the Church despite their current attitude, especially if the alternative is those soldiers turning to brigandage along the border with the Temple Lands (which are likely to be the most orthodox areas).


Most of the MH are not battle hardened. They are highly trained, and inured to hardship but most of them did not face the Empire troops who were cleverly thrown at a limited section of the lines of entrenched MH and the temple army.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:16 pm

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Peter2 wrote:Most of the discussion in this thread reminds me of the old question "Where does an 800 lb gorilla sleep?" – the answer being, of course, "Wherever he d*** well pleases."

So far as I can see, if the MH decides to go somewhere and do something, the only force capable of making any significant objection is the combined Charisian/Siddarmarkan armies. And as long as the MH doesn't head eastwards, I don't think the C/S army will put up any argument.

The best outcome for the unreconstructed North Harchong aristocracy could be for the MH to spontaneously fragment. If it can't feed itself, it might do just that, which would be a disaster for the Temple Lands and surrounding areas. Civil unrest, banditry, and guerilla war, anyone?
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I believe that North Harchong can feed itself, but not much more. Certainly the Northern Empire can't equip and maintain a modern army. The Empire's industry resides in the South. Raw materials may well reside up North in the various mountain ranges up there; iron, other metals and coal anyway. The remainder of the industry up north is likely agriculture related.

The interesting question is where Charis will decide to stage their naval squadrons in the Gulf of Dohlar. I will bet dollars to donuts the ICN keeps Claw Island, Jack's land, trove Island and Lizard Island. Of course, it goes without saying that Silkiah will offer base facilities in Port Salthar. From those lactations the ICN can shut down any meaningful shipping between North and South Harchong any time they wish to.

That fact means that Siddermark would find the Temple Lands the most threatening place for the Mighty Host to end up outside of the Boarder Kingdoms. The Emperor of Harchong (or his administrators) would find repatriating the MH akin to suicide. Duchairn would see forcing Harchong to take back the MH as forcing another schism and retaining the MH East of Zion as a declaration of a desire to resume open hostilities with Siddermark even if Charis acquiesces. Charis won't.

Where does the MH end up? Staying any place East of Zion is basically continuing to fight their decidedly one sided war. Forcing their way West means they will end up in Harchong with little or no support and starved for food and supplies and forced to loot the very people they need support from. Without a logistics net in place, they must loot or starve as they move West of Zion. That would destroy any area they occupy as the resources would not be able to support that many soldiers without the ability to draw from a larger base of support which the lack of logistics would preclude.

There is not a comfortable place for the MH to end up. Where would be the least uncomfortable place for the most Safehold nations? We've had similar discussions before, but there appears to be little consensus amongst the participants.

Let's broaden this and see if we can come to a consensus.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by thanatos   » Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:28 pm

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I think a civil war in Harchong is inevitable at this point. Between the Charis' complete military and economic dominance, the innovations, industrialization and social changes that allowed Charis to win the Jihad and the Church's current commitment to reform, Harchong is effectively a 12th century nation in a 20th century world. RFC wrote in MTaT (I believe) that it was Harchong that introduced gunpowder because its bureaucrats recognized that their quantitative superiority was diminishing in the face of other nations' qualitative advantages. The Jihad has only finalized this process. As such, Harchong will be torn apart by the forces of the status quo fighting the forces of change, with their social stratification serving as the fertile soil for revolutionaries. We can bet that Charis will support the forces of change, politically and materially, even perhaps with Merlin and Nimue in some guise or another serving as liaisons and agents of moderation (counseling the angry serfs not to lynch the nobles they get their hands on). The Church will therefore have to choose between supporting the nobility and bureaucrats in supporting the status quo or the hapless serfs (who already enjoy international sympathy and support).
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by PeterZ   » Thu Feb 09, 2017 2:28 pm

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Well Desnair won't be far behind. The stress of competing with a South Harchong suddenly grown MUCH more productive has to be an enormous strain both the entrepreneurs and the nobility. The nobility will become far less wealthy and the entrepreneurs will have the resources and wealth, but very little power. Depending on the .....avarice of the nobles, the well off have every incentive to offshore as much of their wealth as possible. Capital will flow to where its treated best, eh?

How long before that erupts into a civil war with the aristos in several camps depending on the nature of their fiefdoms. Those that are agrarian will be most conservative, those that rely on trade and manufacturing will be least. There will be many more factions between them. Toss in the regional stresses of any Empire (conglomerate of multiple ethnicities) and Desnair would most likely be fighting when the Return happens.

If Desnair and Harchong erupt simultaneously, what a nightmare that will be for Zion. Duchairn's successor will have his hands full trying to straighten out that mess. Add in the Return and Lord only knows how that story line will weave itself. Depending on how obvious the impending breakup will telegraph itself, Dohlar, South Harchong, Siddermark, The Temple Lands and Charis will be massively gearing up their militaries to deal with that chaos.

The Returnee might find him/herself with Safehold armed to the teeth with weapons far more modern that he might be equipped to deal with. What sorts of expedients or measures must he use to get every nation back in line? Can he even win the argument to convince them to do so? Will his attempts to force compliance elicit strenuous resistance independent of any action Merlin may take?
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by DMcCunney   » Sat Feb 11, 2017 1:22 pm

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PeterZ wrote:If Desnair and Harchong erupt simultaneously, what a nightmare that will be for Zion. Duchairn's successor will have his hands full trying to straighten out that mess. Add in the Return and Lord only knows how that story line will weave itself. Depending on how obvious the impending breakup will telegraph itself, Dohlar, South Harchong, Siddermark, The Temple Lands and Charis will be massively gearing up their militaries to deal with that chaos.
I'm not sure I see a civil war in North Harchong. Who would be the combatants? Those currently there want to maintain the status quo.

The civil war I see as possible will occur if the Mighty Host attempts to repatriate to North Harchong. The last thing those there want to see is is the best part of a couple of million serfs and peasants who have been given modern arms and taught to use them.

North Harchong attempts to keep them out will be doomed to colossal failure, as they'll be arguably more outclassed than the traditional Safeholdian armies armed with pikes, bows, arbalests, matchlocks and non-portable muzzle loading artillery were when they encountered rifle equipped Charisian forces. Earl Rainbow Waters winding up as the new Emperor when the dust settles would be a distinct possibility.

A more likely place for the Mighty Host to land is South Harchong, who might just welcome a trained, well equipped field army, thumb it's nose at North Harchong, and say "We secede." What could North Harchong do about it? (Whether South Harchong could resist the temptation to add the Kingdom of Sodar as a province is a good question. It's unlikely Sodar could resist if they tried.)

Another possibility is that some might just stay in Siddarmark. The devestation and depopulation of western Siddarmark leaves a fair bit of land that needs a lot of work. Most of the Mighty Host infantry were farmers before conscription. Offered an opportunity to become Siddarmarkan citizens and either employees of existing large agricultural efforts or freeholders working their own lands by the Lord Protector, a fair number might jump at it. Going back home and resuming their status as serfs and peasants won't be a popular notion.

And I'd really like to know what was in the last message Rainbow Waters got from Magwair in Zion in response to his dispatch laying out his situation and his plans. I suspect it reduced to "Duchairn and I are going to try to take out the Inquisition. If we succeed we'll ask Charis for terms, because the Jihad has been lost for a while and we all know it. Sit tight, don't fight, and prepare to start going back home."

Civil war in Desnair is possible, though I don't see it occurring immediately. They will discover the hard way that gold doesn't do a lot of good if there's nothing you can buy with it because the people who actually make what you need to buy won't sell to you. As their standard of living drops into the toilet, interesting things will occur, but it won't happen right away.

And from the point of view of everyone else, the biggest need if it occurs will be to keep the civil wars confined to North Harchong and/or Desnair, and not slop over to cause trouble elsewhere. There will be humanitarian concerns about reducing the loss of life and destruction likely, but in the opening stages the likely response from everyone else if "This is what you get for being terminally stupid. When things get so bad you just can't take it any longer, we'll consider helping you, but we expect the calls to come from your successors after you die well deserved deaths."
The Returnee might find him/herself with Safehold armed to the teeth with weapons far more modern that he might be equipped to deal with. What sorts of expedients or measures must he use to get every nation back in line? Can he even win the argument to convince them to do so? Will his attempts to force compliance elicit strenuous resistance independent of any action Merlin may take?
We don't know what form the return will take (though I have guesses.) If Safehold does get a return visit from the Archangels, they'll be counting on "We are the Archangels, and we say so!" as the main argument, with rude shock occurring when a fair number of Safeholdians say "No. Ain't gonna!" to what the Archangels might demand.

The biggest threat I can see is the Archangels taking control of the orbital bombardment system and performing Rakurai strikes to enforce their decrees, and the biggest thing I'd want to do as a member of the Inner Circle is figure out a way to disable the OBS before that can happen.

And imagine the reaction of the Archangels if Merlin shows up to confront them and says "My name is Merlin Athrawes, but the body you see is a PICA, and I used to be Lt. Commander Nimue Alban of the Terran Federation Navy. I know exactly who and what you really are, and I'm not the only one who does." The phrase "excreting rectangular building blocks" comes to mind. :P
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Dennis
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by Dauntless   » Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:51 pm

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DMcCunney wrote:And imagine the reaction of the Archangels if Merlin shows up to confront them and says "My name is Merlin Athrawes, but the body you see is a PICA, and I used to be Lt. Commander Nimue Alban of the Terran Federation Navy. I know exactly who and what you really are, and I'm not the only one who does." The phrase "excreting rectangular building blocks" comes to mind. :P
______
Dennis


oh i so want to see that!

just the fact that peri brothers and shan wei manged to create a fail safe would have them scared.

With the Fail Safe being something close to their daughter/son and who KNOWS them from the original planning will (if they have 2 brain cells to rub together) running for dead Terra as fast as they can.
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Re: Safehold post-Jihad
Post by phillies   » Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:05 pm

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One might also propose that the OBS would recognize Nimue Alban, agree that she is the highest ranking TFN officer and ask her what her orders are.

Dauntless wrote:
DMcCunney wrote:And imagine the reaction of the Archangels if Merlin shows up to confront them and says "My name is Merlin Athrawes, but the body you see is a PICA, and I used to be Lt. Commander Nimue Alban of the Terran Federation Navy. I know exactly who and what you really are, and I'm not the only one who does." The phrase "excreting rectangular building blocks" comes to mind. :P
______
Dennis


oh i so want to see that!

just the fact that peri brothers and shan wei manged to create a fail safe would have them scared.

With the Fail Safe being something close to their daughter/son and who KNOWS them from the original planning will (if they have 2 brain cells to rub together) running for dead Terra as fast as they can.
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