Safehold post-Jihad

PeterZ wrote:Upon reflection the Constitutional Monarchy Louis just posted about is sufficiently republican to be a Republic. Granted a republic with a very strong executive branch. The key sticking point in the definition is the succession. The Lords can bypass candidates in the line but not create an alternate line of succession. Is that enough to say that Charis is a Republic? Had Parliament as a whole and not just the Lords the right to refuse a proper heir, would that make a difference?

Legal distinctions aside, the amount of shared power argues that Charis is effectively a Republic.

No, it makes it a constitutional Monarchy. Republics have elected presidents. So do many dictatorships. At least once.

SYED wrote:I wonde if harchong had church backing some cases on getting run away slaves or serfs.

Now the war is over, could Merlin use economic warfare? The bugs let him have unparalleled access to secrets. To secretly purchase bets, and gain control of slaves. He can play the corrupt system against itself

In all likelihood, unless a runaway serf dies or make a clean getaway, the Church (pre-Jihad) would likely fall on the side of the Harchongese nobility where the serf in question is concerned. This is supported by the degree of cooperation that always existed between the Temple and Harchong, in the care that was taken to cater to Harchong's needs and in the large number of nobles who have senior clergymen in their families. Obviously this cozy relationship is now in jeopardy after the Jihad and with Grand Vicar Rhobair's reforms (as was implied at the end of AtSoT) and it also is likely to make life all too interesting (under the word's meaning in that ancient Chinese curse) for him and the Church in the years to come.

A thought has occurred for me in this regard. Should Harchong find itself with serf uprising, it is likely that the various archbishoprics and secular provinces will likely fracture with some of them repudiating Shang-Mi's control. The question then becomes, which provinces and how close they are to the Temple Lands. As was the case with the Protestant Reformation and the spread of Islam, distance from the religious center dictated the stringency with which that religion was applied and where a new religion was able to take root. And as with most decaying empires, control over the periphery is first to be lost. Yet I would imagine that the closer you get to the Temple, the more orthodox the people become by default, if only because its influence is so much more immediate. So would the provinces nearest to the Temple be more willing to accept reform (and the abolition of serfdom and slavery) in this new climate? Or would it be the opposite, with those provinces being the least willing to accept reform? I fear it will likely be the latter.

As for Merlin placing bets in church's controlled casinos and lizard races in order to finance the mass purchase of slaves, it might not be such a good idea. The Order of Andropov is responsible for ensuring the games are fair, with the Church's law backing them up in the case of cheaters. And if you are too successful in Las Vegas, you get noticed by security and the casino owners, neither of whom want to lose money in such amounts. Merlin would not want to attract that sort of attention and be arrested for cheating at cards, or else be forced to carve his way through a mob of angry gamblers (who would blame him for their misfortune) and angry church guardsmen (who would be legally justified to arrest him). Moreover, the amount of money needed to free that many slaves would be stupendous and I doubt Merlin would be able to dish that much cash out (and get them out of Harchong) without attracting attention. Moreover, if the Antebellum South is any indication, once slave owners become aware that slaves are becoming scarce, escaping or getting bought off by mysterious benefactors, they will fight to protect the "peculiar establishment of slavery" by instituting the same sorts of controls that the South applied prior to the Civil War.

thanatos wrote:I've been re-reading AtSoT (or re-listening to the audiobook) and had a number of questions pop-up regarding Grand Vicar Duchairn's reforming of the CoGA and how he'll handle this new post-Jihad Safehold he's inherited. At the end of the story, Duchairn has the moral authority to make all the changes that he does but it's unlikely the political conditions will remain that way. Moreover, we know he's at loggerheads with the Northern Harchongese leadership, which refuses to accept his reforms since they necessarily entail social reforms that would upset their cushy social order. Add to that that the Church is neck deep in debt, has sold most of its lands in the Charisian Empire that it no longer controls, and has struggled to keep the lanterns burning in all the other things it does for the people (like provide basic literacy, medicine, agriculture, social work etc.), and you have to wonder, how is Duchairn going to survive in the long run?

I don't think it will be that bad.

First, with the end of the Jihad, a crushing weight has been lifted from Mother Church's shoulders. Mother Church was going broke trying to pay for the war. With the war ended, its expenses plummet.

Tithes are still coming in from the Temple Lands, the Border States, South Harchong, Desnair, and Delferak. Tithes may actually resume from Dohlor, since it left the Jihad but did not break with Mother Church. There may even be some tithes from Siddarmark, as it's mentioned in ATSOT that about 20% of Siddarmark's population still self identify as Temple Loyalists. I doubt Stohnar would be foolish enough to try to stop tithes collected by Loyalist churches from getting to Zion.

Right now, everyone is too busy breathing immense sighs of relief at the end of the Inquisition and demise of Clyntahn, and Duchairn has a window in which to make the needed changes.

And if he loses Harchong's support (or at least that of its Northern portions), the Temple Lands will remain isolated between an indifferent empire to the west and hostile Siddarmark in the east (the border state no longer matter at this point). The realms that would continue to support the Temple (potentially at least) are all in the continent of Howard down south. Under such conditions, and assuming Harchong doesn't descend into a bloody civil war, how does Duchairn survive?

I don't think anyone really cares about North Harchong. They want to remain isolationist so their ossified social order will remain intact.

The relationship between North and South Harchong is another matter, but I suspect the pragmatic South Harchongians will profess their nominal loyalty to the Emperor in Noth Harchong, but in practice ignore him and go their own way.

And just how hostile will Siddarmark be? Mother Church lost the Jihad, and Duchairn is giving the allies everything they asked for. Siddarmark has no particular reason to try to invade the Temple Lands, and lots of reasons not to. While it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would expect a mutual non-aggression treaty between the Temple lands and Siddarmark, and attempts on the part of Siddarmark and the EoC to establish friendly relations and trade opportunities with the Border States and the Temple Lands.
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Dennis

DMcCunney wrote:<snip>

And just how hostile will Siddarmark be? Mother Church lost the Jihad, and Duchairn is giving the allies everything they asked for. Siddarmark has no particular reason to try to invade the Temple Lands, and lots of reasons not to. While it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would expect a mutual non-aggression treaty between the Temple lands and Siddarmark, and attempts on the part of Siddarmark and the EoC to establish friendly relations and trade opportunities with the Border States and the Temple Lands.
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Dennis

I imagine there will be quite a bit of hostility, from Siddarmark, at least at the grass-roots level, things like the Sword of Scheuler, the AOGs invasion, and the Inquisition's camps tend to do that.

Officially, I'm sure that with Clyntahn's execution and Duchairn's conciliatory efforts, Siddarmark and the Temple Lands will be able to negotiate without to many problems, but the average Siddarmarkian is going to be leery, to say the least.

Still, I agree that Stohnar has no real reason to invade the TL, not after the end of the Jihad anyway. After all, his attention will rightly be fixed on putting Siddarmark back together again.

DMcCunney wrote:I don't think it will be that bad.

First, with the end of the Jihad, a crushing weight has been lifted from Mother Church's shoulders. Mother Church was going broke trying to pay for the war. With the war ended, its expenses plummet.

Tithes are still coming in from the Temple Lands, the Border States, South Harchong, Desnair, and Delferak. Tithes may actually resume from Dohlor, since it left the Jihad but did not break with Mother Church. There may even be some tithes from Siddarmark, as it's mentioned in ATSOT that about 20% of Siddarmark's population still self identify as Temple Loyalists. I doubt Stohnar would be foolish enough to try to stop tithes collected by Loyalist churches from getting to Zion.

Right now, everyone is too busy breathing immense sighs of relief at the end of the Inquisition and demise of Clyntahn, and Duchairn has a window in which to make the needed changes.

While the end of the Jihad may have stopped the Church's financial bleeding, it is still deep in debt to many mainland realms, banking houses and the Temple Lands' own subjects (who expect a return on their victory bonds. Add to that the adulteration of coinage and the inflation the had to contend with. Add to that anyone stupid enough to buy Church lands in the EoC (who aren't going to be seeing that land any time soon). Add to that the repayment of all the debts they repudiated to Siddarmarkian banks and any compensation for the Sword of Schueler (which Siddarmark will probably demand as part of any long term peace settlement). No, the Church's financial situation is far more precarious than that, especially since the two wealthiest nations on Safehold at the moment do not pay tithes to the Temple (and it's paid by the governments and not private citizens) while all the economy of all the others have been hammered. Though what we might see in the Republic is the emergence of a constitution that allows Temple Loyalists to tithe their local churches but not the Church is Zion. And given that the secular governments have been taking up more and more of Mother Church's duties (as it's ability to provide those services has diminished), we are likely to see more parishioners refusing to pay the Church in general.

DMcCunney wrote:I don't think anyone really cares about North Harchong. They want to remain isolationist so their ossified social order will remain intact.

The relationship between North and South Harchong is another matter, but I suspect the pragmatic South Harchongians will profess their nominal loyalty to the Emperor in Noth Harchong, but in practice ignore him and go their own way.

And just how hostile will Siddarmark be? Mother Church lost the Jihad, and Duchairn is giving the allies everything they asked for. Siddarmark has no particular reason to try to invade the Temple Lands, and lots of reasons not to. While it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would expect a mutual non-aggression treaty between the Temple lands and Siddarmark, and attempts on the part of Siddarmark and the EoC to establish friendly relations and trade opportunities with the Border States and the Temple Lands.
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Dennis

As I've noted before in this thread, any sort of friendly relationship between Charis and the Church would likely come with many economic strings attached. Like perhaps the establishment of a Charisian and Siddarmarkian quarter on the outskirts of Zion. Like West Berlin, it would be a constant eye sore for the Temple - A place that offers all the new (and potentially forbidden) technology and many employment opportunities for the poor of Zion. Charis might also insist that any sort of aid package (like the Marshall Plan) require the abolition of serfdom and slavery. And Siddarmark might insist on those reparations at a time when the Church cannot pay.

shayvaan wrote:

DMcCunney wrote:<snip>

And just how hostile will Siddarmark be? Mother Church lost the Jihad, and Duchairn is giving the allies everything they asked for. Siddarmark has no particular reason to try to invade the Temple Lands, and lots of reasons not to. While it wasn't explicitly mentioned, I would expect a mutual non-aggression treaty between the Temple lands and Siddarmark, and attempts on the part of Siddarmark and the EoC to establish friendly relations and trade opportunities with the Border States and the Temple Lands.

I imagine there will be quite a bit of hostility, from Siddarmark, at least at the grass-roots level, things like the Sword of Scheuler, the AOGs invasion, and the Inquisition's camps tend to do that.

Agreed. Consider the very thorny problem posed by the Temple Loyalist civilians who refugeed out to places like Duchairn's camps in the Border States when the EoC and Siddarmark went on the offensive and systematically eliminated the AOG and the Mighty Host of God.

A lot of those folks may wish to return home, but will no longer have homes to return to and large numbers of Siddarmarkians who will be happy to use them to fertilize their fields if they try. Good luck to the commission to address the problem Stohnar created and appointed Archbishops Cahnyr, Fardhym, and Zagyrsk serve on. One possibility that occured to me would be a new Siddarmark province adjacent to the Border States intended as a place the Temple Loyalists can return to, but the loyal Siddarmarkians who currently live there could be expected to strongly object to the idea.

Officially, I'm sure that with Clyntahn's execution and Duchairn's conciliatory efforts, Siddarmark and the Temple Lands will be able to negotiate without to many problems, but the average Siddarmarkian is going to be leery, to say the least.

No doubt. But that's a matter of detail and seeing how things settle out. I think the average Sidddarmarkian's primary emotion at this point is profound relief, and a determination to rebuild Siddarmark and put their lives back together. As long as they can do that, they'll be happy enough.

Still, I agree that Stohnar has no real reason to invade the TL, not after the end of the Jihad anyway. After all, his attention will rightly be fixed on putting Siddarmark back together again.

As it should be. And I don't envy him facing that challenge. But as someone in the "marks make the world go round" camp, I think the flood of investment coming in from the EoC will make at least the practical aspects of that task a lot easier.
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Dennis

phillies wrote:

Women contribute less...no. Men dig ditches. Women weave cloth for sale and do as much or more.

That is a very modern point of view. I have seen documentation from ca. 1800 giving a list of men's names, together with their trades or professions. One man was described as a "spinster", i.e. a man who spun wool into thread. In the days before the spinning mule, spinning wasn't necessarily a woman's job.
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Most of the discussion in this thread reminds me of the old question "Where does an 800 lb gorilla sleep?" – the answer being, of course, "Wherever he d*** well pleases."

So far as I can see, if the MH decides to go somewhere and do something, the only force capable of making any significant objection is the combined Charisian/Siddarmarkan armies. And as long as the MH doesn't head eastwards, I don't think the C/S army will put up any argument.

The best outcome for the unreconstructed North Harchong aristocracy could be for the MH to spontaneously fragment. If it can't feed itself, it might do just that, which would be a disaster for the Temple Lands and surrounding areas. Civil unrest, banditry, and guerilla war, anyone?
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Peter2 wrote:Most of the discussion in this thread reminds me of the old question "Where does an 800 lb gorilla sleep?" – the answer being, of course, "Wherever he d*** well pleases."

So far as I can see, if the MH decides to go somewhere and do something, the only force capable of making any significant objection is the combined Charisian/Siddarmarkan armies. And as long as the MH doesn't head eastwards, I don't think the C/S army will put up any argument.

The best outcome for the unreconstructed North Harchong aristocracy could be for the MH to spontaneously fragment. If it can't feed itself, it might do just that, which would be a disaster for the Temple Lands and surrounding areas. Civil unrest, banditry, and guerilla war, anyone?
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As was proven in ATSOT, no army can survive without a financial, industrial and logistic support base. And the bigger the army, the bigger that base has to be. Harchong was the most populous of the Safeholdian realms and as such could field (with the Church's financial backing) an army of 3 million soldiers. But as was made clear since MTAT, the Harchongian military was seriously backward to begin with, with the general expectation by its leadership that it could win any war simply by impressing serfs, putting slings, swords or spears (at best) in their hands and then just throwing them at the enemy in waves, until a break in the enemy's line is created for the aristocratic cavalrymen to charge in and finish the job. The Go4 had to force them to change their thinking fundamentally and to upgrade their industrial base (at least in South Harchong) so that their troops might actually pose a threat to Charis and Siddarmark. So while 3 million troops who are stuck in camps in the Temple Lands (the Siddarmarkians will certainly not let them stay in their territory) could potentially pose a problem, the Harchongese bureaucrats need only starve the MH (through various bureaucratic means) in order to diminish its combat effectiveness. Obviously, Duchairn and Magwair can continue to maintain those troops but they could barely maintain an army of less than 1 million soldiers at the end of the Jihad, much less a total of 4 million.

So if Duchairn wants to stop the financial hemorrhaging, he needs to drastically cut military expenditures, including to the AOG. Feeding and housing the MH and AOG soldiers would be less difficult financially and we can expect Charis and Siddarmark to lend a hand in any humanitarian assistance of this type. But ultimately the Harchongese bureaucrats and aristocrats will have to make a choice. If they continue to block these soldiers' return home, they potentially hand the Temple Lands a huge army that the Church would have no choice but to absorb as Temple Lands residents. Assuming Mother Church manages to stabilize its finances enough to both maintain its economy and create enough of a surplus to raise an army of 4 million troops (unlikely I admit), that's 4 million soldiers that Church can use to attack a recalcitrant Harchong in order to enforce its reforms (unlikely given sentiments after the Jihad). Yet despite the unlikelihood of this scenario, it's one the Harchongese leadership must take into account. Moreover, if confronted with a unified military force of 3 million battle-hardened veterans against the toughest opponents on Safehold and under the competent leadership of Rainbow Waters, those same Harchongese bureaucrats might eventually decide to cut a deal with the Church despite their current attitude, especially if the alternative is those soldiers turning to brigandage along the border with the Temple Lands (which are likely to be the most orthodox areas).

thanatos wrote:
As was proven in ATSOT, no army can survive without a financial, industrial and logistic support base. And the bigger the army, the bigger that base has to be. Harchong was the most populous of the Safeholdian realms and as such could field (with the Church's financial backing) an army of 3 million soldiers. But as was made clear since MTAT, the Harchongian military was seriously backward to begin with, with the general expectation by its leadership that it could win any war simply by impressing serfs, putting slings, swords or spears (at best) in their hands and then just throwing them at the enemy in waves, until a break in the enemy's line is created for the aristocratic cavalrymen to charge in and finish the job. The Go4 had to force them to change their thinking fundamentally and to upgrade their industrial base (at least in South Harchong) so that their troops might actually pose a threat to Charis and Siddarmark. So while 3 million troops who are stuck in camps in the Temple Lands (the Siddarmarkians will certainly not let them stay in their territory) could potentially pose a problem, the Harchongese bureaucrats need only starve the MH (through various bureaucratic means) in order to diminish its combat effectiveness. Obviously, Duchairn and Magwair can continue to maintain those troops but they could barely maintain an army of less than 1 million soldiers at the end of the Jihad, much less a total of 4 million.

So if Duchairn wants to stop the financial hemorrhaging, he needs to drastically cut military expenditures, including to the AOG. Feeding and housing the MH and AOG soldiers would be less difficult financially and we can expect Charis and Siddarmark to lend a hand in any humanitarian assistance of this type. But ultimately the Harchongese bureaucrats and aristocrats will have to make a choice. If they continue to block these soldiers' return home, they potentially hand the Temple Lands a huge army that the Church would have no choice but to absorb as Temple Lands residents. Assuming Mother Church manages to stabilize its finances enough to both maintain its economy and create enough of a surplus to raise an army of 4 million troops (unlikely I admit), that's 4 million soldiers that Church can use to attack a recalcitrant Harchong in order to enforce its reforms (unlikely given sentiments after the Jihad). Yet despite the unlikelihood of this scenario, it's one the Harchongese leadership must take into account. Moreover, if confronted with a unified military force of 3 million battle-hardened veterans against the toughest opponents on Safehold and under the competent leadership of Rainbow Waters, those same Harchongese bureaucrats might eventually decide to cut a deal with the Church despite their current attitude, especially if the alternative is those soldiers turning to brigandage along the border with the Temple Lands (which are likely to be the most orthodox areas).

I have no quarrel with any of the above.

I have no idea of where the MH will go and what it will do – we can speculate and theorise endlessly about this, but so far as I can see, we do not have adequate grounds for preferring any one option over any other. The only point that I would want to make is that the one thing it cannot do is to wait and do nothing; Thanatos has given ample reason for that. Whatever happens is going to commence very quickly.
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