PeterZ wrote:If Desnair and Harchong erupt simultaneously, what a nightmare that will be for Zion. Duchairn's successor will have his hands full trying to straighten out that mess. Add in the Return and Lord only knows how that story line will weave itself. Depending on how obvious the impending breakup will telegraph itself, Dohlar, South Harchong, Siddermark, The Temple Lands and Charis will be massively gearing up their militaries to deal with that chaos.
I'm not sure I see a civil war in North Harchong. Who would be the combatants? Those currently there want to maintain the status quo.
The civil war I see as possible will occur if the Mighty Host attempts to repatriate to North Harchong. The last thing those there want to see is is the best part of a couple of million serfs and peasants who have been given modern arms and taught to use them.
North Harchong attempts to keep them out will be doomed to colossal failure, as they'll be arguably
more outclassed than the traditional Safeholdian armies armed with pikes, bows, arbalests, matchlocks and non-portable muzzle loading artillery were when they encountered rifle equipped Charisian forces. Earl Rainbow Waters winding up as the new Emperor when the dust settles would be a distinct possibility.
A more likely place for the Mighty Host to land is
South Harchong, who might just welcome a trained, well equipped field army, thumb it's nose at North Harchong, and say "We secede." What could North Harchong
do about it? (Whether South Harchong could resist the temptation to add the Kingdom of Sodar as a province is a good question. It's unlikely Sodar could resist if they tried.)
Another possibility is that some might just stay in Siddarmark. The devestation and depopulation of western Siddarmark leaves a fair bit of land that needs a lot of work. Most of the Mighty Host infantry were farmers before conscription. Offered an opportunity to become Siddarmarkan citizens and either employees of existing large agricultural efforts or freeholders working their own lands by the Lord Protector, a fair number might jump at it. Going back home and resuming their status as serfs and peasants won't be a popular notion.
And I'd
really like to know what was in the last message Rainbow Waters got from Magwair in Zion in response to his dispatch laying out his situation and his plans. I suspect it reduced to "Duchairn and I are going to try to take out the Inquisition. If we succeed we'll ask Charis for terms, because the Jihad has been lost for a while and we all know it. Sit tight, don't fight, and prepare to start going back home."
Civil war in Desnair is possible, though I don't see it occurring immediately. They will discover the hard way that gold doesn't do a lot of good if there's nothing you can buy with it because the people who actually
make what you need to buy won't sell to you. As their standard of living drops into the toilet, interesting things will occur, but it won't happen right away.
And from the point of view of everyone else, the biggest need if it occurs will be to keep the civil wars confined to North Harchong and/or Desnair, and not slop over to cause trouble elsewhere. There will be humanitarian concerns about reducing the loss of life and destruction likely, but in the opening stages the likely response from everyone else if "This is what you get for being terminally stupid. When things get so bad you just can't take it any longer, we'll consider helping you, but we expect the calls to come from your successors after you die well deserved deaths."
The Returnee might find him/herself with Safehold armed to the teeth with weapons far more modern that he might be equipped to deal with. What sorts of expedients or measures must he use to get every nation back in line? Can he even win the argument to convince them to do so? Will his attempts to force compliance elicit strenuous resistance independent of any action Merlin may take?
We don't know what form the return will take (though I have guesses.) If Safehold
does get a return visit from the Archangels, they'll be counting on "We are the Archangels, and we say so!" as the main argument, with rude shock occurring when a fair number of Safeholdians say "No. Ain't gonna!" to what the Archangels might demand.
The biggest threat I can see is the Archangels taking control of the orbital bombardment system and performing Rakurai strikes to enforce their decrees, and the biggest thing I'd want to do as a member of the Inner Circle is figure out a way to disable the OBS before that can happen.
And imagine the reaction of the Archangels if Merlin shows up to confront them and says "My name is Merlin Athrawes, but the body you see is a PICA, and I used to be Lt. Commander Nimue Alban of the Terran Federation Navy. I know exactly who and what you really are, and I'm not the only one who does." The phrase "excreting rectangular building blocks" comes to mind.
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Dennis