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(SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?

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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:01 am

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Randomiser wrote:EvilAuthor
Settling the Mighty Host somewhere, attractive as it sounds, looks like a non-starter. I forget the exact figures, but 1 Million+ men need a whole lot of ground plus lots of logistic support while they set themselves up, vastly more if it's on unconsecrated ground. Then they also need 1 Million+ women. Where are they coming from? NTM many of them have wives and children back in N Harchong and they all have extended families there. Are their owners going to agree to losing even more serfs and who will pay for their transport and feeding even if the landowners agree? The MHoGA plus the reinforcements that are on the way/in training are a really difficult problem whichever way you approach it. Siddarmark is the last place that will want them. And wherever they go, who pays?


"How Ya Gonna Keep'em Down On The Farm (After They've Seen Paree?)" Arthur Fields


I think, if the Merlin can convince him that the seijin can rescue his family, and perhaps those of his officers family in the north, they would be open to the idea of relocating south, with their Mighty Host... this move could serve as a power balance against the Desnarian Empire (also in the southern hemisphere) and, while the Mighty host settling in the north would turn that social system upside down, with the slave revolt, it would also further weaken the hold of the old church. Remember, they don't want to disband the Inquisition in the north.
If Rainbow Waters took his army to the north, the civil war or slave revolt would be shorter, especially if the inner circle can undertake his reeducation before he gets there. He might find he is able to be more flexible in his thinking about the lower class if he filters his thinking through the lenses of "his army" much like Duke Eastshare does.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:20 am

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PeterZ wrote:I have suggested in other threads that Rainbow Waters conquers Desnair. Siddermark and Charis would facilitate travel to the South just to get those trained troops away from Sidermark's borders. South Harchong would provide support as a means of acquiring Desnair's wealth. North Harchong would expand their Empire AND keep those troops as far away from home as possible. Duchairn wouldn't support the move but also couldn't prevent it, if Emperor Waisu ordered it. I suspect that the Northern Harchong clergy would see attacking Desnair as a way to vent their spleen on a worthy target.

Incorporating Desnair into the Empire serves to find space for those troops where their experience wouldn't disrupt the homeland. Given the wall between Desnair and South Harchong, the two empires have butted heads in the recent past. Further given Desnair's displayed incompetence in fighting a modern war, Waisu would rightfully see this as a short victorious war.

Actually, he would be made to see it as a not so short victorious war. The bureaucracy would make the war last longer than it needs to for two reasons. First, the longer the war lasts, the more of those soldiers who might disrupt the Empire will die. Second, the longer the war lasts, the more graft the bureaucracy can skim off the top. Also, the merchant families of the South will keep peculation to a minimum, so the war will need to be lengthened to fatten their purses suitably. Afterall, most of the bureaucracy have already gotten too used to the amount of graft available from the jihad to forego the prospects of continuing the cash flow.

That sort of treatment would disillusion the MH soldiers even more. Toss in Duke Kohlman wheedling weapons from Cayleb to sell to worthwhile Desnairians and the war lasts even longer. Desnair as a society is shattered. South Harchong has to expand its industry massively to support the war. That expansion would require even more liberation of serfs into the manufactories. Heck, liberated would be more productive if they were actually paid for their work. The mercantile families would recognize this quite readily.

That leaves North Harchong completely isolated as every other polity on is Safehold changing. If Charis directs its attention at North Harchong's serfs, North Harchong would find their own internal social upheaval to deal with. The good news from a Charisian/Inner Circle perspective is that the fight to free serfs and slaves is a moral imperative. The consequences to those that would keep God's children shackled is secondary to the imperative to free those people. If Duchairn tries to defend slaveholders, he loses whatever moral authority he gained after his coup against Clyntahn. The same applies to any Archangel/virtual personality that awakens and tries to turn back the clock should the serfs and slaves of Safehold have been emancipated before the Awakening. Any Archangel that demands God's children be enslaved would be suspect.

Anyway, that seems a likely direction this story will take.




Randomiser wrote:EvilAuthor
Settling the Mighty Host somewhere, attractive as it sounds, looks like a non-starter. I forget the exact figures, but 1 Million+ men need a whole lot of ground plus lots of logistic support while they set themselves up, vastly more if it's on unconsecrated ground. Then they also need 1 Million+ women. Where are they coming from? NTM many of them have wives and children back in N Harchong and they all have extended families there. Are their owners going to agree to losing even more serfs and who will pay for their transport and feeding even if the landowners agree? The MHoGA plus the reinforcements that are on the way/in training are a really difficult problem whichever way you approach it. Siddarmark is the last place that will want them. And wherever they go, who pays?



Peter,
Nice summary but I need some things cleared up... first, isn't there only one emperor and capital city for all of Harchong?
I know we are told that the southern population (as a rule) seem to be more progressive but, at bottom line, they report to the same leaders so, the Mighty Host is a product of the entire nation, even if most of the troupers came from the north.
I think most of them would like to go home and even if the bureaucrats try to disarm them, "Use a knife till you can capture a gun" and there are a lot of them who could form squads even if they never worked together before, they are trained.
I think the inner circle wants to end the transition as quickly as possible, with as little additional bloodshed as possible. I also think they are more practicable and experienced about where and how to hit to knock down the walls.
Yes, they want a favorable balance of power against Desnar but I think that comes second.

David has promised a more detailed map... I hope we can see the boarder between Sodar and Desnar.
I seem to recal that Sodar was identified as a poor nation with no need for a navy (because they had no seacoast) and, yes, the map will be redrawn in the south as well as the north so the prospect of the fall of Desnar is very real and desirable from the perspevctive of the social order.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by PeterZ   » Mon Nov 14, 2016 10:45 am

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C. O. Thompson wrote:Peter,
Nice summary but I need some things cleared up... first, isn't there only one emperor and capital city for all of Harchong?
I know we are told that the southern population (as a rule) seem to be more progressive but, at bottom line, they report to the same leaders so, the Mighty Host is a product of the entire nation, even if most of the troupers came from the north.
I think most of them would like to go home and even if the bureaucrats try to disarm them, "Use a knife till you can capture a gun" and there are a lot of them who could form squads even if they never worked together before, they are trained.
I think the inner circle wants to end the transition as quickly as possible, with as little additional bloodshed as possible. I also think they are more practicable and experienced about where and how to hit to knock down the walls.
Yes, they want a favorable balance of power against Desnar but I think that comes second.

David has promised a more detailed map... I hope we can see the boarder between Sodar and Desnar.
I seem to recal that Sodar was identified as a poor nation with no need for a navy (because they had no seacoast) and, yes, the map will be redrawn in the south as well as the north so the prospect of the fall of Desnar is very real and desirable from the perspevctive of the social order.


Indeed one Emperor for all Harchong. Yet, the descriptions of South Harchong and to some extent Green Tree Island suggest a different social mix between the two wings. The mercantile families of the South hold more sway with how the bureaucracy operates. That in turn limits the assigned governors of the region. So, while the Emperor rules and decrees, the bureaucracy executes those decrees. I read into the books descriptions that how those decrees are executed are quite different between the North and South.

I don't believe it matters if the troopers want to return home or not. The Emperor will dictate their disposition. Sending them to attack Denair might be the least objectionable disposition for all involved. That's not saying there won't be a significant amount of desertion involved before and after deploying the troops against Desnair. There will be significant desertion of those troopers into the Temple Lands, Zion and in Howard (once they are moved).

One of the reasons I suggested sending the MH to Desnair is to continue a moral policy. By focusing on the emancipation of human beings, the Inner Circle can do what they couldn't do with regards to letting the CoGA totally implode. They can push the CoGA doctrine harder by forcing them to once again agree with the Church of Charis that the emancipation of serfs and slaves is a moral imperative.

That agreement further destroys the support for the CoGA by the more traditional segments of Safehold and reinforces a parity in moral authority between reformists, the CoC and the CoGA. By forcing the CoGA to challenge their doctrine, the Inner Circle encourages a mindset of questioning their faith. That's groundwork that has to be laid down now before the Awakening.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:52 am

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PeterZ wrote:
Indeed one Emperor for all Harchong. Yet, the descriptions of South Harchong and to some extent Green Tree Island suggest a different social mix between the two wings. The mercantile families of the South hold more sway with how the bureaucracy operates. That in turn limits the assigned governors of the region. So, while the Emperor rules and decrees, the bureaucracy executes those decrees. I read into the books descriptions that how those decrees are executed are quite different between the North and South.

My impression of the Emperor's decrees are... "sign here" and "don't worry about it"
But I do see your point about the MH goes where they are told to. :?:


I don't believe it matters if the troopers want to return home or not. The Emperor will dictate their disposition. Sending them to attack Denair might be the least objectionable disposition for all involved. That's not saying there won't be a significant amount of desertion involved before and after deploying the troops against Desnair. There will be significant desertion of those troopers into the Temple Lands, Zion and in Howard (once they are moved).

One of the reasons I suggested sending the MH to Desnair is to continue a moral policy. By focusing on the emancipation of human beings, the Inner Circle can do what they couldn't do with regards to letting the CoGA totally implode. They can push the CoGA doctrine harder by forcing them to once again agree with the Church of Charis that the emancipation of serfs and slaves is a moral imperative.

That agreement further destroys the support for the CoGA by the more traditional segments of Safehold and reinforces a parity in moral authority between reformists, the CoC and the CoGA. By forcing the CoGA to challenge their doctrine, the Inner Circle encourages a mindset of questioning their faith. That's groundwork that has to be laid down now before the Awakening.
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by Lunan   » Tue Nov 15, 2016 9:36 pm

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Personally, the "where do we go now?" question with the death of jasper clinton (pardon me not typing out the safeholdian spellings) is that
1: time to jump the timeline, move us 80 to 100 years forward to the millenlail return please. you can do some info dumping as to what happened but a clean break please.
2: please please please only 1 or 2 books for the millenial return not another 8 that devolve into i think i counted over 200 named pov in the series (its too much, i lost interest in most of the people)
3: no more then a TRILOGY on getting back to space, build empire and go after and destroy the gabba
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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by n7axw   » Tue Nov 15, 2016 10:00 pm

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Lunan wrote:Personally, the "where do we go now?" question with the death of jasper clinton (pardon me not typing out the safeholdian spellings) is that
1: time to jump the timeline, move us 80 to 100 years forward to the millenlail return please. you can do some info dumping as to what happened but a clean break please.
2: please please please only 1 or 2 books for the millenial return not another 8 that devolve into i think i counted over 200 named pov in the series (its too much, i lost interest in most of the people)
3: no more then a TRILOGY on getting back to space, build empire and go after and destroy the gabba


If the mellennial return occurs when Merlin has calculated, we are looking at less than a decade from the time at the end of AtSoT.

As for how many books, my impression is that the series is planned for 12 books. Given where we seem to be at, that sounds about right. The next book will have a 20 year leap in the timeline wuth a major leap or leaps in the follow on volumes.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: (SPOILERS) Where do we go from here?
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:45 pm

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n7axw wrote:
Lunan wrote:Personally, the "where do we go now?" question with the death of jasper clinton (pardon me not typing out the safeholdian spellings) is that
1: time to jump the timeline, move us 80 to 100 years forward to the millenlail return please. you can do some info dumping as to what happened but a clean break please.
2: please please please only 1 or 2 books for the millenial return not another 8 that devolve into i think i counted over 200 named pov in the series (its too much, i lost interest in most of the people)
3: no more then a TRILOGY on getting back to space, build empire and go after and destroy the gabba


If the mellennial return occurs when Merlin has calculated, we are looking at less than a decade from the time at the end of AtSoT.

As for how many books, my impression is that the series is planned for 12 books. Given where we seem to be at, that sounds about right. The next book will have a 20 year leap in the timeline wuth a major leap or leaps in the follow on volumes.

Don

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Don,

I think you are right on the time till the event... if I were part of the inner circle, I would defuse the bomb long before it happened... just in case the AI (or what ever) wakes up in a bad mood.

If we think it was bad for Jasper to come to terms with the truth, how much worse for some guardian of Langhorn's plan to wake up to find that Shan-Wei beat him after all ;)
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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