Convoy escorts - SPOILER for SNIPPET 8 of HFQ

Dilandu wrote:

Had the war continued into 1815 or later, even fewer of them would have gotten to sea.

Hm, but would Royal Navy be able to mantain the close blockade? After all, in 1815 the US navy would have his first ship-of-the-line in comission, and probably the construction of "Demologos" would be finished (and she was a pretty good reason not to mantain the blockade close to shore, after all!).

The RN knew about the USN plans, and the chances of the US liners accomplishing much in 1815-16 wasn't all that great. They were very powerful ships, but they also suffered from low freeboard (their lower gunports were all but useless in a seaway), and the biggest of them were being built on the Great Lakes, where they would have been . . . less than useful. The Brits had scads of experience with blockading French and Spanish seaports (each of which contained several times as many liners as the entire US building program), and with Canada and Bermuda they had bases plenty close enough to keep an eye on the ports where the US liners might be found. Besides, the US ships were being built in ports scattered along the Eastern seaboard; each of them could have been sat upon by a single squadron of British liners without too much trouble. As for the Brits' ability to keep an eye on American ports, look what happened when Decatur tried to take President to sea late in the war.

As for Demologos, I realize you're a technophile , but the odds of her being completed and being sufficiently decisive to lift the blockade of New York (as opposed to materially aiding in New York's defense) was . . . slim, let us say.

Nope, if the war had continued past 1815, the British experience in exerting sea control would have put extremely heavy pressure on the US, and it would have taken years for the USN to build up a battle fleet capable of meeting the RN at sea or breaking a systematic blockade of the East Coast. Exactly what all the ramifications of a long war might have been is impossible to say, of course, and it's a fascinating what-if question, but ultimately it was unlikely the war would have ended any way except the way it did, absent Napoleon's successful return to power.

The key point was that Britain accepted that it wasn't going to defeat the US in North America, and that acceptance stemmed in no small part from the Duke of Wellington's declining to accept the North American command and pointing out that the US really offered no single, clear target which would force the Americans to give in. After all, England had already taken and burned the US capital and the stupid Yankees had declined to surrender.

They were very powerful ships, but they also suffered from low freeboard (their lower gunports were all but useless in a seaway),

Of course, but as anti-blockade coastal force (and deterrense) they may be usefull

As for Demologos, I realize you're a technophile , but the odds of her being completed and being sufficiently decisive to lift the blockade of New York (as opposed to materially aiding in New York's defense) was . . . slim, let us say.

Well, if she would managed to attack in very calm weather, it may be a Really Bad Day for the blockading squadron But i see you point.

runsforcelery wrote:

Actually, you still couldn't cram any useful number of them into a hull the size of the ones we're describing. It's not just a factor of how heavily built the hull is, although that's certainly a factor. It's also a matter of how much displacement you have to support the weight of the gun itself and how that affects stability, freeboard, and seaworthiness. There's simply an upper limit on how much weight of armament you can load aboard the ship.



Hmmmmmmmmmmmm . . . maybe a 150,000-word info dump for the next book . . . .

Yeah! That'd work!

The recoil would be the hard thing to compensate for. Returning fire with a recoil-less rifle, rocket battery or even a gun with a decent recoil absorber like the French WW1 Soixante-Quinze mounted on anything larger than a yacht would put the fear of god into most privateers particularly with explosive shells and rapid fire capability. (And the American Army had a hard time duplicating the 75 even with multiple copies and the plans - the clearances on the recuperator are hard to achieve unless you are regularly making high pressure hydraulics). A 40mm Bofors gun with a clip would also get most attackers to back off and be useful as a close defense gun for the Deferak's. This is the principle for the armed merchantmen of WW1 and WW2, and given the lack of submarines these would be able to reach out and touch attackers from beyond the range of a muzzle loading cannon.

The 150,000 info dump would work for me....

I've always felt that "you can't win" regarding info dumps.

You have people complaining about them but you also have people wanting more of them.

Of course, then (as here) you got fans making assumptions based on what they imagine about the technology of your universes and a few who think they know more in spite of your info dumps.

runsforcelery wrote:Hmmmmmmmmmmmm . . . maybe a 150,000-word info dump for the next book . . . .

Yeah! That'd work!

True on the no-win scenario.

On the other hand, the "tech assumption offset" seems to be quite prevalent for the Safehold books, so maybe a 2-10 page foreword or afterword on the "pre-Howsmyn/-Merlin" tech base might be useful.

Those who detest infodumps can skip it, and those who "need to be set straight" can be directed to reading it.

To find space for 10 pages would of course mean that the next book's dramatis personae had to be reduced by ... what? Half or so? A third?

DrakBibliophile wrote:

I've always felt that "you can't win" regarding info dumps.

You have people complaining about them but you also have people wanting more of them.

Of course, then (as here) you got fans making assumptions based on what they imagine about the technology of your universes and a few who think they know more in spite of your info dumps.

runsforcelery wrote:Hmmmmmmmmmmmm . . . maybe a 150,000-word info dump for the next book . . . .

Yeah! That'd work!

Well, what I'm reading from all of this (and it's quite possible I'm wrong) is that we're going to be treated to more land-and-burn operations. And that sort of thing will mean that Ahlvarez' remaining army will be less likely to be sent back to the main theater, if they feel threatened more close to home.

Is that unreasonable? Land some troops, take some territory temporarily, watch the opponent's army start to move to push you out, then get back on the boats and sail off to their original destination? The cost to the enemy in snarled logistics may be far greater than our cost in delayed reinforcements.

Hi NinaKatarina,

Unfortunately for Dohlar, but thankfully for Ahlverez's men, its most likely threatened coasts are still some 500-600 miles from the inland border where Ahlverez will probably cross, after his 900+ mile march from Kharmych.

Time wise, it would be the middle of April before they could get to the coasts at the soonest, and dividing his army into penny packets every 10-20 miles along the coast would also be a waste of good troops when they could be the core of a new larger army.

Assuming Ahlverez makes it home [I think he will], I suspect his 13,000 Desnari infantry will head home via Silkiah ie the Thesmar-Silk Town Canal, leaving him with around 35,000 after a 600+ mile march just to the Seridahn River near Thesmar and still 300 miles from the Dohlar border, while the Desnari have another 200+, though they might stay together on the Cheryk-Somyr High road for the next 5day.

After 900+ miles they're going to need some rest before going back to the front, assuming their families don't demand some survivors' R&R with them, while the soldiers have their weapons...

Thanks to EHM and the army of Cliff Peak, Rychtyr could already be in retreat by then, leaving Dohlar to beg for terms before the RSA starts occupying all it territory, while the ICA whips the MHoGatA.

When Hanth considered the combined army facing him at Thesmar while he's checking his defensive batteries at the Thesmar Bay narrows [August: section IV] he figures his 23,000 men [if all get well] will only be 8% of the then AoS, ie 287,500 troops; (probably including the artillery) so subtracting the IDA leaves Ahlverez [including Rychtyr] up to 112,500 men before his losses and reinforcements, so 35% might be as high as 39,000 left.

So pitting Ahlverez against the 60-70,000 man alliance armies heading for Dohlar is not something to get your hopes up with.

L

NinaKatarina wrote:Well, what I'm reading from all of this (and it's quite possible I'm wrong) is that we're going to be treated to more land-and-burn operations. And that sort of thing will mean that Ahlvarez' remaining army will be less likely to be sent back to the main theater, if they feel threatened more close to home.

Is that unreasonable? Land some troops, take some territory temporarily, watch the opponent's army start to move to push you out, then get back on the boats and sail off to their original destination? The cost to the enemy in snarled logistics may be far greater than our cost in delayed reinforcements.

lyonheart wrote:Hi NinaKatarina,

Unfortunately for Dohlar, but thankfully for Ahlverez's men, its most likely threatened coasts are still some 500-600 miles from the inland border where Ahlverez will probably cross, after his 900+ mile march from Kharmych.

Time wise, it would be the middle of April before they could get to the coasts at the soonest, and dividing his army into penny packets every 10-20 miles along the coast would also be a waste of good troops when they could be the core of a new larger army.

Assuming Ahlverez makes it home [I think he will], I suspect his 13,000 Desnari infantry will head home via Silkiah ie the Thesmar-Silk Town Canal, leaving him with around 35,000 after a 600+ mile march just to the Seridahn River near Thesmar and still 300 miles from the Dohlar border, while the Desnari have another 200+, though they might stay together on the Cheryk-Somyr High road for the next 5day.

After 900+ miles they're going to need some rest before going back to the front, assuming their families don't demand some survivors' R&R with them, while the soldiers have their weapons...

Thanks to EHM and the army of Cliff Peak, Rychtyr could already be in retreat by then, leaving Dohlar to beg for terms before the RSA starts occupying all it territory, while the ICA whips the MHoGatA.

When Hanth considered the combined army facing him at Thesmar while he's checking his defensive batteries at the Thesmar Bay narrows [August: section IV] he figures his 23,000 men [if all get well] will only be 8% of the then AoS, ie 287,500 troops; (probably including the artillery) so subtracting the IDA leaves Ahlverez [including Rychtyr] up to 112,500 men before his losses and reinforcements, so 35% might be as high as 39,000 left.

So pitting Ahlverez against the 60-70,000 man alliance armies heading for Dohlar is not something to get your hopes up with.

L

NinaKatarina wrote:Well, what I'm reading from all of this (and it's quite possible I'm wrong) is that we're going to be treated to more land-and-burn operations. And that sort of thing will mean that Ahlvarez' remaining army will be less likely to be sent back to the main theater, if they feel threatened more close to home.

Is that unreasonable? Land some troops, take some territory temporarily, watch the opponent's army start to move to push you out, then get back on the boats and sail off to their original destination? The cost to the enemy in snarled logistics may be far greater than our cost in delayed reinforcements.

Most of Ahlvarez and Rycther's units are going to be pretty useless and have to be rebuilt from scratch by the time they cross the border into Dohlar. Not to mention sick and starving. All of that assumes they don't get cut off and destroyed.

Cheerful soul, aren't I?

Don

hvb wrote:
To find space for 10 pages would of course mean that the next book's dramatis personae had to be reduced by ... what? Half or so? A third?

So are you trying to get RFC to do a GRRM?

I try to keep up with the discussions goin' on here but I think I've missed some some stuff.
A number of folks are swagging that Ahlverez will make it back to Dohlar and maybe even become a co-regent with Admiral Thirsk. I'm in violent agreement that he's a very capable fella and that this would make for a better Dohlar. The part of the discussion I seem to have missed is how he's gonna be feedin' his troops and animals while they're gettin back to his co-regency.
Another thing I've missed is how this group of 30,000, who have pretty competent leadership, is gonna pussyfoot across Hanth's supply lines without him knowin' that an organized enemy force is moving across his supply lines and doin' sumthin' about eliminatin' said threat.

I'd be most 'preciative if someone could point me to those parts of the discussions I've missed.