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(SPOILERS) Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?

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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by Dilandu   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:51 am

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SWM wrote:
I imagine because they wanted humanity to be human, not machines. There are certainly arguments in favor of transhumanism for an extreme situation like this. But there is no sign that they considered it. I wonder if their attitude was that they were fighting to preserve humanity, and turning into machines is not preserving humanity. Recall that most surviving people were not exactly firing on all thrusters at the time.


Well, if the only alternative is the possible extinction of the human race... Why should you care? You can't stop the evolution. after all: by creation of PICA and VR-enviroment for human copies they already started process.

If anything, this may be a more logical "second arrow" for the Federation if lyonheart is right about the covering fleet for Langhorne being the last one of its size. You don't need nearly as many resources to preserve 80 million electronically stored mind copies as you do 80 million flesh and blood human beings.

You may not even need a covering fleet. Just one warship covering another ship carrying everything needed to Von Neumann themselves back up to a full scale civilization. Assuming you don't just send a ship off into the trackless interstellar void at STL speeds for a few centuries to wait out any Gbaba search patterns.


And even if this is too extreme - why not just "save" a copy of the entire human race on the molecular disk and send them away on the PICA-ships? After finding the earthlike planet, PICA would made necessary preparations, and then - just clone the body of every human from Earth and upload their consciousness on the data module, attached to the brain?
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- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by Dilandu   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 8:59 am

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In theory, the Federation could:

- Copy ALL human consciousnesses on Earth or other colonies on molecular databanks.

- Build... for example... a thousand heavy stealth Von Neymann ships, each carrying a copy of ALL humanity

- Send them into void. It could be done under cover of "Ark" fleet, before the "Ark" fleet, or even AFTER the "Ark" fleet - after all, completely unmanned ships under minimal power could simply wait inside of some asteroid untill the Gbaba left the Solar System

- After arriving on Earth-like planets, the PICA crew would terraform it, build industriual base and PICA production or simply cloning facility to "reincarnate" all stored consciousnesses in PICA or human bodies.

- Then the ship would blast off to next earthlike world, to create another civilization...

- And after all - hit Gbaba with number!
------------------------------

- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by evilauthor   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:09 am

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Dilandu wrote:- After arriving on Earth-like planets, the PICA crew would terraform it, build industriual base and PICA production or simply cloning facility to "reincarnate" all stored consciousnesses in PICA or human bodies.


Here's a question: Why would a ship carrying mind uploads need a habitable planet? If anything, habitable worlds are "HEY! LOOK HERE!" signs to the Gbaba.

Also, if you're carrying enough living tissue to clone human beings... you're carrying living tissue. You literally cannot achieve the kind of powered down states required for maximum EMCON if you need to keep the machines holding the living tissue samples alive in a powered up state, whether in full blown life support or in cryogenic freezing (which textev suggests isn't good for centuries long use anyway).
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by Dilandu   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:18 am

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Also, if you're carrying enough living tissue to clone human beings... you're carrying living tissue.


Er, for what reason? All we need is the organic material for processing. We could obtain the basical materials - carbon, hydrogen, oxygen - even from the asteroids! Next, we process them into organic matter by some geneticaly-adapted microflora, and then use the obtained organic!

Here's a question: Why would a ship carrying mind uploads need a habitable planet? If anything, habitable worlds are "HEY! LOOK HERE!" signs to the Gbaba.


Reasonable solution. The O'Neill colonies is really easier and cheaper.
------------------------------

- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by Duckk   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:30 am

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All this discussion is based on a false premise. Nothing escaped the blockade except Operation Ark, because the Gbaba made damn well sure that they had more than enough coverage. I already posted the link where David clearly explains how thorough the Gbaba were in cleaning up.
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Shields at 50%, taunting at 100%! - Tom Pope
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by Dilandu   » Fri Sep 19, 2014 9:38 am

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Duckk wrote:All this discussion is based on a false premise. Nothing escaped the blockade except Operation Ark, because the Gbaba made damn well sure that they had more than enough coverage. I already posted the link where David clearly explains how thorough the Gbaba were in cleaning up.


Well, so the Federation wasn't as clever as they appeared... As one looks, but the operation "Ark" is least reliable option possible. Simply too many things could go wrong. And they go wrong.

And even in this case, the absurd appointment of the management staff by some "political reasons"... Dudes, you are fighting the loosing war for the survival of human race! What the "policies"? Everything - everything! - should be subordinated to the interests of the war machine! You just do not need any civil government, because if you lose this war, there will be nothing.
------------------------------

- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by bkwormlisa   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 1:13 pm

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Duckk wrote:All this discussion is based on a false premise. Nothing escaped the blockade except Operation Ark, because the Gbaba made damn well sure that they had more than enough coverage. I already posted the link where David clearly explains how thorough the Gbaba were in cleaning up.

Thank you for the thread link, Duckk; I hadn't seen it before and it does a good job of discussing Earth's colonizing options. http://forums.davidweber.net/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3253&start=20

After reading that thread, though, I think my original question is still valid. That discussion was on whether or not any other colonizing expeditions made it from Earth. The Creator has said that they didn't and I'm not going to argue with him. It wipes out most of the speculation in this thread so far.

But my question was about Operation Ark specifically. The textev is that they had the second terraforming fleet, and it could operate ten years' flight away without the first one. So it seems that they had the ability to make two colonies if they chose to do so. So why didn't they?

Admittedly, this question is probably moot because we're unlikely to ever see the other colony except maybe after they're back in space fighting the Gbaba. So it doesn't matter if they did or didn't. But I'm curious about the reasons that they should or should not have done it, or at least considered it.

The idea that they didn't want two possibilities for the Gbaba to realize humans had survived is valid, but I'd have thought the two chances for survival would outweigh that, especially if they put enough distance between them. I suppose it's possible that the colony ships that hid during the terraforming had something limited that meant they couldn't split in half (but what?). What other disadvantages would there be to two colonies?
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by Dahak   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:18 pm

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bkwormlisa wrote:The planners of Operation Ark specifically sent two full terraforming fleets, in case the first one was detected and destroyed. It wasn't, obviously, but I've been wondering why they didn't use the second one anyway.

Going another ten years' flight and planting half the colonists there would have given them a second chance in case the first one failed for any reason, immediately or before returning to space or even by returning too early and being killed by the Gbaba. Four million colonists is enough to make a colony; it's not like they barely had a big enough gene pool to make one colony.

Yes, they'd have to send off at least half the command crew, but the plan could have included the people for it and I don't think losing half of them would have ended the colony. It certainly survived well enough after Pei nuked them.

I suppose Langhorne wouldn't have wanted that, wouldn't have wanted half the remaining humanity under someone else's control and without the "safeguards" he put in place, but I can't find anything to indicate that anyone even considered the idea. Can anyone else?


The second terraforming fleet was simply a back-up, in case Shan-Wei's fleet was discovered and destroyed while engaging in active operations.

The second fleet was destroyed along with the first one, once Administrator Langhorne and the Council decided that Safehold was successfully readied for the colonists and the fleet, itself, was no longer needed.

(I've always wondered if Hamilcar was finally destroyed. Having the last starship available would be a major resource for anyone playing Tin God.)

Could the fleet's ships have been capable of yet another multi-year voyage and yet another terraforming operation without refit or resupply?
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by bkwormlisa   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:34 pm

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Dahak wrote:The second terraforming fleet was simply a back-up, in case Shan-Wei's fleet was discovered and destroyed while engaging in active operations.

The second fleet was destroyed along with the first one, once Administrator Langhorne and the Council decided that Safehold was successfully readied for the colonists and the fleet, itself, was no longer needed.

(I've always wondered if Hamilcar was finally destroyed. Having the last starship available would be a major resource for anyone playing Tin God.)

Could the fleet's ships have been capable of yet another multi-year voyage and yet another terraforming operation without refit or resupply?

Yes, it was called a back up just in case. And yes, it was very likely also destroyed with the first. But if it was capable of going another ten years away and then terraforming another world, I'm assuming that they were capable of another multi-year voyage without refit or resupply. But if they could do it, why did no one even think about the reasons they didn't?
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Re: Why did they put all their eggs in one basket?
Post by evilauthor   » Sat Sep 20, 2014 2:57 pm

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bkwormlisa wrote:Could the fleet's ships have been capable of yet another multi-year voyage and yet another terraforming operation without refit or resupply?

Yes, it was called a back up just in case. And yes, it was very likely also destroyed with the first. But if it was capable of going another ten years away and then terraforming another world, I'm assuming that they were capable of another multi-year voyage without refit or resupply. But if they could do it, why did no one even think about the reasons they didn't?[/quote]

Well Langhorne's (you know, the guy in charge) reasons were obvious: He didn't WANT another colony because they didn't fit his plans, and anyone he put in charge of such a second colony (which would very much be outside his control) may very well decide to go with the original mission plan (ie, regain space travel), which is almost guaranteed to have HUMAN starships showing up at Safehold at some later date.
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