HFQ Official Snippet #1

alj_sf wrote:So that clears a lot of speculation and open quite a few new ones.

- She is probably part of an order (nunnery ?) founded by Seijin Kody who was on the losing side of the fallen wars.
- She imply that the order is in possession of documents not telling the official church history.
- Her interest in the actions of historical Seijins seems to tell us that the non official history is much more complex than the official one, especially about the role of Seijins. The cartboard figures of the official ones suggest rewritten stories. Which begs one question : Why St Zerneaux accounts which are not under church eye dont show same discrepancies ?
- She had the means to spy on Charis from Zion which means quite an organisation. Same org has also the institutional skills to carry perfectly done assassinations leaving no clues*, yet the church know nothing about it and dont even suspect its existence ?

I know the last bit is a pet point of mine, but that solely breaks plausability for me.

*My bold.

Who said they aren't leaving any clues? They aren't leaving clues leading to their identities or to their organization, but while I hate to disillusion you about real life, there are frequently intelligence agencies who don't have a clue (figuratively speaking, in this case) about the existence of a threat organization until it bites them on the butt. At that point they start looking for it, but without a loose end to pull on, it's very difficult to unravel a tight, cell-based organization, especially when you don't have the forensic tools present day investigators and intelligence agencies take for granted. Rayno's got lots of clues; he just don't have any that give him the information he needs . . . yet, at least.

DrakBibliophile wrote:David Weber will post snippets when he gets "a round tuit".

Like this one?

runsforcelery wrote:Who said they aren't leaving any clues? They aren't leaving clues leading to their identities or to their organization, but while I hate to disillusion you about real life, there are frequently intelligence agencies who don't have a clue (figuratively speaking, in this case) about the existence of a threat organization until it bites them on the butt. At that point they start looking for it, but without a loose end to pull on, it's very difficult to unravel a tight, cell-based organization, especially when you don't have the forensic tools present day investigators and intelligence agencies take for granted. Rayno's got lots of clues; he just don't have any that give him the information he needs . . . yet, at least.

Sure, many agencies did that for years, the most flagrant example being probably KGB in UK, but wait 10, 20 years or more and things start to unravel at least to the point that people start to notice something is amiss.

In a semi medevial society, without the modern technical means, I can accept easily the existence of secret societies hiding successfully for centuries but their mere existence will be known or at least suspected sooner or later if they do active operations and not simply collect open sources. St Zherneau is passive, operating in a place where the opponent is weak, so it is quite possible. A similar org in Zion is harder but still plausible. An active org, but fully unknown ? Here I have
to raise a bit of ruckus.

Now as you said, unravelling a tight cell based org is very hard, and the org can easily survive being partially discovered.

An org hiding within the hierarchy of the inquisition is probably the simplest but here again, I dont think they can afford to be active.

I cannot remember any historical example of secret society which was both operationally active and successfully hidden for more than a century. Even the Nizaris or the Sikh assassin sect I dont remember the name were known about quickly.

this is not a big problem, there is a bit a break of suspension of disbelief but the story is still great.

alj_sf wrote:I cannot remember any historical example of secret society which was both operationally active and successfully hidden for more than a century. Even the Nizaris or the Sikh assassin sect I dont remember the name were known about quickly.

this is not a big problem, there is a bit a break of suspension of disbelief but the story is still great.

Umm... they've been "operationally" active for less than THREE years... not a hundred...

Before that, they were just in the buildup phase and/or the pure intelligence-gathering phase (and/or didn't exist at all). So they weren't "operationally" active yet.

FriarBob wrote:

alj_sf wrote:I cannot remember any historical example of secret society which was both operationally active and successfully hidden for more than a century. Even the Nizaris or the Sikh assassin sect I dont remember the name were known about quickly.

this is not a big problem, there is a bit a break of suspension of disbelief but the story is still great.

Umm... they've been "operationally" active for less than THREE years... not a hundred...

Before that, they were just in the buildup phase and/or the pure intelligence-gathering phase (and/or didn't exist at all). So they weren't "operationally" active yet.

Again, the operational skills shown are not compatible with newbies in command. The first operation they did we know of was the rescue of the wife of the ex-archbishop and they did that without any flaw while said wife was under inquisition surveillance. So the surveillance team (2 mens I think Rayno said) was either compromised or killed too.

In the first case, they have seriously deep claws embeded in the inquisition, and that dont happen in little time.
In the second they are very skilled, as even if the inquisitors were not expecting such attacks, they seem to be well trained from other textev. In both cases it suggest deep experience

Hildum wrote:

runsforcelery wrote: “I don’t know,” she told him very quietly, her eyes deep and dark in the fire-spangled bedchamber’s dimness, “but I’ve come to suspect that wherever you truly come from is also where all of the Adams and Eves who awoke here on Safehold on the Day of Creation truly came from, as well.”

Interesting speculation about Aivah, but frankly, I am more interested in whether Merlin will answer this question. What would the impact of "yes" be on Aivah? He certainly cannot answer "no."

What if she's thinking "he came direct from heaven" instead of having deduced the full truth?

alj_sf wrote:
Again, the operational skills shown are not compatible with newbies in command. The first operation they did we know of was the rescue of the wife of the ex-archbishop and they did that without any flaw while said wife was under inquisition surveillance. So the surveillance team (2 mens I think Rayno said) was either compromised or killed too.

In the first case, they have seriously deep claws embeded in the inquisition, and that dont happen in little time.
In the second they are very skilled, as even if the inquisitors were not expecting such attacks, they seem to be well trained from other textev. In both cases it suggest deep experience

They probably have been operational for quite a few years, at least those parts not doing assassinations. It is likely everyone who wants to be a power player has agents in Zion, given the probability that many of those agents are working for multiple people, counter espionage likely has its hands full. Then there are the criminal enterprises smuggling things like hard cider or tea without tax stamps. The smuggling is likely not strenuously persecuted most of the time, only when a smuggler gets too blatant, or a new chief is appointed.

Be aggressively silence and accept my financial remuneration with alacrity and aggression.

Castenea wrote:

alj_sf wrote:
Again, the operational skills shown are not compatible with newbies in command. The first operation they did we know of was the rescue of the wife of the ex-archbishop and they did that without any flaw while said wife was under inquisition surveillance. So the surveillance team (2 mens I think Rayno said) was either compromised or killed too.

In the first case, they have seriously deep claws embeded in the inquisition, and that dont happen in little time.
In the second they are very skilled, as even if the inquisitors were not expecting such attacks, they seem to be well trained from other textev. In both cases it suggest deep experience

They probably have been operational for quite a few years, at least those parts not doing assassinations. It is likely everyone who wants to be a power player has agents in Zion, given the probability that many of those agents are working for multiple people, counter espionage likely has its hands full. Then there are the criminal enterprises smuggling things like hard cider or tea without tax stamps. The smuggling is likely not strenuously persecuted most of the time, only when a smuggler gets too blatant, or a new chief is appointed.

Who says they've been conducting "active operations" for a huge amount of time? And who says they were organized or trained by "newbies"? I certainly haven't said anything to that effect. Can you point me at any place in textev where I have?

I would point out that there are organization and then there are organizations, and that you are making certain assumptions about any putative organization to which Aivah may or may not belong. Inclluding the assumption that just because they have nmounted no known operations against the Inqusition they must have "newbies" in command. Frankly, I think to some extent that this suggests certain prejudices (in the sense of pre-judgments) in your basic model.

Suppose, for a moment, that there was a secret organization which had been hidden for a couple of hundred years (or more), during which it had erected a defense in depth against revealing its presence while very quietly and clandestinely collecting information on a known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that said secret organization possessed the means to insert its own personnel into the known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that those infiltrated agents spent a hundred years or so learning the techniques of the known intelligence services without ever carrying out an overt operation against the known intelligence agency. And suppose that those folks who learned those techniques were available to teach them to your "newbies," while simultaneously passing along the institutional experience of their enemy learned while actively in the service of and running operation for that enemy.

Now, I am not saying which, or how much, if any, of the above suppositions are relevant to Safehold, but it does rather suggest how at least some of your concerns could be answered, does it not?

runsforcelery wrote:Suppose, for a moment, that there was a secret organization which had been hidden for a couple of hundred years (or more), during which it had erected a defense in depth against revealing its presence while very quietly and clandestinely collecting information on a known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that said secret organization possessed the means to insert its own personnel into the known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that those infiltrated agents spent a hundred years or so learning the techniques of the known intelligence services without ever carrying out an overt operation against the known intelligence agency. And suppose that those folks who learned those techniques were available to teach them to your "newbies," while simultaneously passing along the institutional experience of their enemy learned while actively in the service of and running operation for that enemy.

(Assumption: The above quote is more than the author yanking our chains. ) Since the Inquisition is by far the largest intelligence organization on Safehold, this suggests they have been infiltrated, perhaps substantially given that a large organization should offer more opportunities for infiltration. Given Aivah's firmly expressed desire to kill Clyntahn, it also suggests that either none of "her" Inquisitors are assigned to the Temple, or not in a position to kill Clyntahn without being discovered.