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HFQ Official Snippet #1

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by runsforcelery   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:13 pm

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Castenea wrote:
alj_sf wrote:
Again, the operational skills shown are not compatible with newbies in command. The first operation they did we know of was the rescue of the wife of the ex-archbishop and they did that without any flaw while said wife was under inquisition surveillance. So the surveillance team (2 mens I think Rayno said) was either compromised or killed too.

In the first case, they have seriously deep claws embeded in the inquisition, and that dont happen in little time.
In the second they are very skilled, as even if the inquisitors were not expecting such attacks, they seem to be well trained from other textev. In both cases it suggest deep experience

They probably have been operational for quite a few years, at least those parts not doing assassinations. It is likely everyone who wants to be a power player has agents in Zion, given the probability that many of those agents are working for multiple people, counter espionage likely has its hands full. Then there are the criminal enterprises smuggling things like hard cider or tea without tax stamps. The smuggling is likely not strenuously persecuted most of the time, only when a smuggler gets too blatant, or a new chief is appointed.


Who says they've been conducting "active operations" for a huge amount of time? And who says they were organized or trained by "newbies"? I certainly haven't said anything to that effect. Can you point me at any place in textev where I have?

I would point out that there are organization and then there are organizations, and that you are making certain assumptions about any putative organization to which Aivah may or may not belong. Inclluding the assumption that just because they have nmounted no known operations against the Inqusition they must have "newbies" in command. Frankly, I think to some extent that this suggests certain prejudices (in the sense of pre-judgments) in your basic model.

Suppose, for a moment, that there was a secret organization which had been hidden for a couple of hundred years (or more), during which it had erected a defense in depth against revealing its presence while very quietly and clandestinely collecting information on a known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that said secret organization possessed the means to insert its own personnel into the known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that those infiltrated agents spent a hundred years or so learning the techniques of the known intelligence services without ever carrying out an overt operation against the known intelligence agency. And suppose that those folks who learned those techniques were available to teach them to your "newbies," while simultaneously passing along the institutional experience of their enemy learned while actively in the service of and running operation for that enemy.

Now, I am not saying which, or how much, if any, of the above suppositions are relevant to Safehold, but it does rather suggest how at least some of your concerns could be answered, does it not? :twisted:


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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by JohnS   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:26 pm

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runsforcelery wrote:Suppose, for a moment, that there was a secret organization which had been hidden for a couple of hundred years (or more), during which it had erected a defense in depth against revealing its presence while very quietly and clandestinely collecting information on a known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that said secret organization possessed the means to insert its own personnel into the known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that those infiltrated agents spent a hundred years or so learning the techniques of the known intelligence services without ever carrying out an overt operation against the known intelligence agency. And suppose that those folks who learned those techniques were available to teach them to your "newbies," while simultaneously passing along the institutional experience of their enemy learned while actively in the service of and running operation for that enemy.


(Assumption: The above quote is more than the author yanking our chains. :) ) Since the Inquisition is by far the largest intelligence organization on Safehold, this suggests they have been infiltrated, perhaps substantially given that a large organization should offer more opportunities for infiltration. Given Aivah's firmly expressed desire to kill Clyntahn, it also suggests that either none of "her" Inquisitors are assigned to the Temple, or not in a position to kill Clyntahn without being discovered.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:48 pm

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Considering that we know of one agent/spy of the Inquisition (one Rhobair Seablanket) who was loyal to somebody else, I think it's a given that a smart lady like Aivah could plant people into the Inquisition's intelligence network. :)

As for one of her agents within the Inquistition assassinating Clyntahn, David Weber has said that Clyntahn is highly protected even within the Temple.

I also suspect that only a very few people would be allowed to be in the same room alone with Clyntahn so IMO it's unlikely that Aivah's agents would have a safe opportunity to assassinate Clyntahn.

Even a successful suicidal attempt on Clyntahn would be hard to arrange.

On the other hand, Rayno might be an easier target even within the Temple.

Rayno appears to be in charge of the Inquisition's intelligence network and as we saw with Rhobair Seablanket he'd be more likely to be alone with one of her agents. :twisted: :twisted:

JohnS wrote:
runsforcelery wrote:Suppose, for a moment, that there was a secret organization which had been hidden for a couple of hundred years (or more), during which it had erected a defense in depth against revealing its presence while very quietly and clandestinely collecting information on a known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that said secret organization possessed the means to insert its own personnel into the known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that those infiltrated agents spent a hundred years or so learning the techniques of the known intelligence services without ever carrying out an overt operation against the known intelligence agency. And suppose that those folks who learned those techniques were available to teach them to your "newbies," while simultaneously passing along the institutional experience of their enemy learned while actively in the service of and running operation for that enemy.


(Assumption: The above quote is more than the author yanking our chains. :) ) Since the Inquisition is by far the largest intelligence organization on Safehold, this suggests they have been infiltrated, perhaps substantially given that a large organization should offer more opportunities for infiltration. Given Aivah's firmly expressed desire to kill Clyntahn, it also suggests that either none of "her" Inquisitors are assigned to the Temple, or not in a position to kill Clyntahn without being discovered.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by n7axw   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:05 pm

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We know that Aivah had at least one agent in the Temple because she was warned a day in advance of Clyntahn's timetable for rounding up the Circle.

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by tootall   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:16 pm

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[quote="DrakBibliophile"]

I also suspect that only a very few people would be allowed to be in the same room alone with Clyntahn so IMO it's unlikely that Aivah's agents would have a safe opportunity to assassinate Clyntahn.

Rayno appears to be in charge of the Inquisition's intelligence network and as we saw with Rhobair Seablanket he'd be more likely to be alone with one of her agents. :twisted: :twisted:


Well, oh friendly Dragon--- how about Rayno, ... as the double agent? :shock: :shock:
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by kbus888   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:16 pm

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=2014/08/12=
Wouldn't it be a neat twist if Rayno were a double agent !!

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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:57 pm

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There were several scenes (especially from the early books) from Rayno's Point Of View including his thoughts that appear to go against that idea.

For example, there was an early scene with Rayno thinking of Clyntahn as a "Great Leader" with "Great Flaws".

I can't see Rayno as the "double agent" with those thoughts concerning Clyntahn.

In addition, we've heard Rayno's thoughts too often about activities that we know to have been taken by Aivah and her organization.

His thoughts are those of a man seriously interested in finding out "who is behind those actions".

I submit that his thoughts are not those of a man who is a member of Aivah's organization.

On the other hand, if it was true, that would be evil of David Weber. :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:


tootall wrote:
DrakBibliophile wrote:
I also suspect that only a very few people would be allowed to be in the same room alone with Clyntahn so IMO it's unlikely that Aivah's agents would have a safe opportunity to assassinate Clyntahn.

Rayno appears to be in charge of the Inquisition's intelligence network and as we saw with Rhobair Seablanket he'd be more likely to be alone with one of her agents. :twisted: :twisted:


Well, oh friendly Dragon--- how about Rayno, ... as the double agent? :shock: :shock:
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by evilauthor   » Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:56 am

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tonyz wrote:What if she's thinking "he came direct from heaven" instead of having deduced the full truth?


That's another thing! It's been mentioned in almost every book the dangers of what would happen if the Inner Circle revealed the Truth to someone who reacts "badly" to it. It's a Checkov's Gun that's been sitting on the wall for almost the entire series, but so far Merlin and the Charisians have come up lucky every time.

So what if the one person who has the much feared "bad reaction" is the one person they can least afford to lose and the hardest to make "disappear"?

Especially since it was mentioned that if Nahrman had a bad reaction, he could have betrayed them to the Church (and likely sacrificed himself in the process). And from what we've seen, Aivah is better at the espionage game than Nahrman.

Wouldn't that be worth a few drama points?

Think it's time to fire that particular gun?
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by alj_sf   » Wed Aug 13, 2014 4:07 am

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runsforcelery wrote:
Who says they've been conducting "active operations" for a huge amount of time? And who says they were organized or trained by "newbies"? I certainly haven't said anything to that effect. Can you point me at any place in textev where I have?

I would point out that there are organization and then there are organizations, and that you are making certain assumptions about any putative organization to which Aivah may or may not belong. Inclluding the assumption that just because they have nmounted no known operations against the Inqusition they must have "newbies" in command. Frankly, I think to some extent that this suggests certain prejudices (in the sense of pre-judgments) in your basic model.

Suppose, for a moment, that there was a secret organization which had been hidden for a couple of hundred years (or more), during which it had erected a defense in depth against revealing its presence while very quietly and clandestinely collecting information on a known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that said secret organization possessed the means to insert its own personnel into the known intelligence agency. And suppose, for just a moment, that those infiltrated agents spent a hundred years or so learning the techniques of the known intelligence services without ever carrying out an overt operation against the known intelligence agency. And suppose that those folks who learned those techniques were available to teach them to your "newbies," while simultaneously passing along the institutional experience of their enemy learned while actively in the service of and running operation for that enemy.

Now, I am not saying which, or how much, if any, of the above suppositions are relevant to Safehold, but it does rather suggest how at least some of your concerns could be answered, does it not? :twisted:


I acknowledged earlier that hiding within inquisition was a possibility if not active and it is indeed a way to learn the inquisition way of trade. Tradesets are a bit different (Inquisition do arrests before murders) but not that much, and other activities, like smuggling, could provide what is missing.

Still the duration problem remains, the "org" is quite a bit too competent to not preexist our favorite Madam life, but then if it is centuries old, why was it never active ?
And why turning the switch now ? And no turncoats in centuries ?
A passive "org" just collating info while hiding also cannot exist without someone exploiting the collated stuff, because otherwise it is goalless.

Lastly, there is the size question. A handfull of person can go on a successfull conspiracy a long time, but the reach and extent of Aivah ops suggest it is a rather large one.

Now, you are pretty good to misleading us first and giving pallatable explanations later down the road. Almost sure this is more of that case. My suspension of disbelief was hitted pretty hard though, but it is not the first time in Safehold books and it was always given a way to recover on.
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Re: HFQ Official Snippet #1
Post by Joat42   » Wed Aug 13, 2014 7:57 am

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alj_sf wrote:
runsforcelery wrote:...snip...


I acknowledged earlier that hiding within inquisition was a possibility if not active and it is indeed a way to learn the inquisition way of trade. Tradesets are a bit different (Inquisition do arrests before murders) but not that much, and other activities, like smuggling, could provide what is missing.

Still the duration problem remains, the "org" is quite a bit too competent to not preexist our favorite Madam life, but then if it is centuries old, why was it never active ?

Maybe because the organization was created for a specific purpose or for a specific set of circumstances to occur. Maybe the organization was started by an order to keep tabs on the inquisition. There are several possibilities why the organization has been passive for so long.

alj_sf wrote:And why turning the switch now ? And no turncoats in centuries ?

Well, Clynthan had his little purge which may well have changed the circumstances. And asking why there are no turncoat may be so simple as they have been very careful who to indict into their organization, just look at the Brethren of St. Zherneau; they managed just fine.

alj_sf wrote:A passive "org" just collating info while hiding also cannot exist without someone exploiting the collated stuff, because otherwise it is goalless.

No, if the goal is to go active when certain events transpire it's not goalless.

alj_sf wrote:Lastly, there is the size question. A handful of persons can go on a successful conspiracy a long time, but the reach and extent of Aivah ops suggest it is a rather large one.

We know that Aivah's organization is actually several different ones, and each one is small enough that if it's compromised it can be cut off rather easily without impeding the overall effort.

alj_sf wrote:Now, you are pretty good to misleading us first and giving palatable explanations later down the road. Almost sure this is more of that case. My suspension of disbelief was hit pretty hard though, but it is not the first time in Safehold books and it was always given a way to recover on.

Well, we know that RFC tend to use red herrings that on the surface doesn't look very obvious so if something strikes you as very odd because you feel it doesn't really fit into the story it's most certainly a red herring or just that you missed an obscure reference.

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