n7axw wrote:After carefully studying a map, I agree with you that BGV will be too far north to help with Kaitswyrth. Using EHM in combo with Symkins would be better.
Just looking at the map and the current location of the Harchongians, it seems to me that its very important to liberate Silkiah and seal the land bridge to Howard as well as knocking Dohlar out of the war should be priority before dealing with the Harchongians.
Don
The Harchongese will be on the move as soon as the repairs to the locks allow. Clyntahn has them
very high on his list of priorities, and Duchairn won't be able to delay them very long, especially if the AoSG and the AoG have ceased to exist.
To be realistic, even with the massive amounts of food and supplies that stacked up at Lake City, and with the locks on the canals repaired, the CoGA will hard-pressed to feed 1.6 million troops, who as Duchairn has noted will be as much a threat to the faithful as the heretics - and especially to the faithful's
daughters. I don't think he wants that horde sent as a single group, and once he explains the logistical problems, Magwair will agree. So it's likely that Magwair will send only part of the horde after BGV. By then BGV should have cleaned Wyrshym out of the Sylmahn gap and taken Guarnak, so by the time the locks on the canals can be fixed in order to feed an army the size of even a "small" portion of the horde, BGV should be ready to take them on.
The Harchongese have 640,000 men with rifles, 90,000 of which are breech loaders. The rest are armed with arbalests, bows, pikes, even slings. They'll make lovely cannon fodder - unless the cannons are overrun. After all, quantity has a quality all its own. This isn't a force you'd want to take on in the open where you might get surrounded.
BGV should have consolidated his troops from the Sylmahn Gap and Allyntyn by then, so along with any reinforcements he receives, he can decide where and how to take on the Harchongese horde. Keep in mind the Harchongese cavalry are
bowmen, not dragoons, even if they've been issued pistols. They won't be conducting any cavalry charges. They'd prefer hit and run tactics, but those aren't possible when the enemy can pick them off at double or triple the range of an arrow.
Once the Temple Guard troops and inquisitors who are leading the horde are eliminated, the lack of leadership may make the surviving serfs amenable to surrender and be put to work on the thousands of burned out and abandoned farms in Shiloh, for example, or they may be fanatics and fight to the last man. I'm sure BGV would regret having to kill them all, and Merlin would regret it even more. Such is war, and the
last thing the Empire of Harchong wants is to get any POWs back! (They'd summarily execute all of them for fear that they'd lead a slave revolt.) Of course if a huge force of trained Harchongese serfs learn that their lives were considered expendable and that their own country won't allow them to go home again, those 640,000 rifles take on a whole new meaning for the future of Harchong...
So the horde is likely to be split, with part sent at BGV and part to Kaitswyrth at Aivahnstyn from Lake City or by land from the Border States. Part of it might be sent to the Gulf of Dohlar and disembarked at Dairnyth to support Dohlar and try to capture Thesmar, which is why it would have been nice to have had enough ships to seize control of the Gulf in LaMA.
Fear not, the Haarahld VIIs are on the way, and if they're finished in July, they could arrive in the gulf by September. At that point it's all over but the sinking of Thirsk's fleet and the assault on Gorath. I expect some nasty surprises in Gorath Bay - underwater mines, the screw galleys (which are worthless against an ironclad) and some things we haven't been told about yet.
(Spar torpedoes?)
SPOILER!!!!!!
Whether Nynian's organization extends into Dohlar becomes important, because Thirsk's family needs to be whisked away from the Inquisition. If she can't do it, Merlin and Nimue will have some fun. Thirsk's family can't be rescued until Thirsk and his fleet have already sailed, since the second they disappear the Inquisition will order his arrest.
End of SPOILER (Not that I haven't said exactly the same thing in the past...)
Because he thinks his family would be killed if he surrenders, Thirsk won't be likely to strike his colors and order his fleet to do the same even when faced with the Haarahld VIIs, which completely outclass and are immune to his entire fleet. After seeing a few of his ships sunk with just a broadside or two while his own shells bounce off or explode harmlessly against the steel ship's armor, I'd expect the ICN to raise a parley flag. When Thirsk comes aboard the Haarahld VII, he's likely to be told that his family is safe, so he can surrender his fleet before thousands of his sailors are killed by an enemy whose ships they can barely dent.
Of course Clyntahn might go all Sarkyn on the officer's families, which means that the NoG under Thirsk needs to wait out in the Gulf until the ICN smashes its way to Gorath and the ICA takes the city, while sealing off the naval base and its inhabitants to keep the Inquisition from taking out Clyntahn's wrath on the sailor's families. With their husbands and fathers safe on the surrendered ships of the NoG, I don't anticipate much resistance from the natives. The marine guards and any army units stationed there may cause problems, but bringing Thirsk along to explain that the fleet has surrendered would take all naval personnel out of the battle. The ICM may have to shoot a few hundred troops of the RDA before the base is secure, but that's just a sideshow.
RFC might pull something tricky and have
Thirsk lead the attack on Gorath, docking his fleet and securing the naval base, then observing while the ICN sails in and captures the city. Of course if
that happened we wouldn't get to see the screw galleys in action, so I wouldn't bet on things happening that way. The inquisitors on every ship are going to go nuts if Thirsk surrenders, so a bunch of them may learn to swim with the krakens.
I imagine Merlin and Nimue may be used to go after King Ronald, who if he survives capture will be the first head of state to be hung, along with every inquisitor taken alive in the capture of Gorath.
With its fleet surrendered and its army destroyed (Ahlverez is living on borrowed time, even if he makes it to Everytyn) I expect Dohlar to be the first country to formally surrender to the Allies. They may keep King Ronald alive long enough to sign the formal surrender papers and publicly name his successor, who will most likely
not be his son. Thirsk may be given a throne he most certainly didn't want.
(Don't worry, CoGA assassins would make sure he couldn't keep it!)
If Dohlar falls, Silkiah is likely to sign on with the Allies, which gives them full access to the Salthar canal, greatly simplifying resupply from Charis to the fleet in the Gulf of Dohlar by cutting 20,000 miles off the trip. It also severs
all communication from the CoGA to the continent of Howard, except for the occasional ship that manages to slip across the Gulf of Dohlar and evade the Charisian fleet. That effectively removes Desnair and South Harchong from the war, assuming a sufficiently large force of the RSA and ICA blocks the "roads" in North Watch, and the ICN blocks any supplies or troops ships attempting to leave Mahrosa Bay or Iythria, along with a blockade of the mouth of the Hankey? River on the Gulf of Dohlar.
South Harchong can largely be contained simply by blockading Shweimouth passage, which is the only exit from Shwei Bay. It's unlikely that South Harchong has extensive canals or highways, since like Howell Bay in Charis, the country's major cities are located all around Shwei Bay's shoreline, and it's basically a South Harchong bathtub. Of course South Harchong also has thousands of miles of shoreline on the Gulf of Dohlar and on its west coast all the way to Sodar, but the only cities shown on the map are on the shores of Shwei Bay, so the western portion of the Empire may be lightly inhabited, since the weather is likely to be fairly bad there.
Suffice it to say that with a large enough fleet and several members of the inner circle assigned to it when it needs to split into squadrons to blockade certain areas, no major shipments of troops or supplies will arrive at their destination if they began their voyage in Desnair or South Harchong.
With Howard beyond Clyntahn's reach, it will be most interesting to see what the monarchs, Harchongese bureaucrats, and the clergy of the CoGA do when freed from directives and mandates emanating from Zion.
Once the Harchongese horde is defeated and its remnants are POWs or sent home packing heat with blood in their eyes, the final question is whether the Allies battle through the Border States and the Temple Lands, or take the easy way out by sailing into Temple Bay and putting the troops ashore. Which they
could have done after AMF!
Yes RFC, I understand that the Inquisition, the Go4, and the current leadership of the CoGA needed to become
so hated and reviled that when Charis ultimately attacks and seizes the temple, the reaction will no longer be "The heretics attacked the temple!!!!" but rather "The EoC
finally took out that #@!%# Clyntahn and the Go4! Oh, and they had to attack the temple to do it. Oh well, this means the war is over, right?"
The Sodarans will go on herding sheep as usual.
