HFQ Official Snippet #8

Doe the church trust thirsk enough to allow him to sail to battle, or will they keep him on main land?

The Church has his family under their "protection" so if his fleet is needed, then he'll sail with it.

SYED wrote:Doe the church trust thirsk enough to allow him to sail to battle, or will they keep him on main land?

InvisibleBison wrote:

n7axw wrote:
Most everybody has been brought into the inner circle because someone found it useful in one way or the other so that particular objection really is not very cogent.

Yes, people are brought into the inner circle because it would be useful, but with very few exceptions, all inductees had been extensively evaluated for spiritual flexibility and been approved on that basis. I don't object to purely pragmatic reasons for suggesting someone as an inner circle member; I just want to make sure that no one forgets about the importance of the potential inductee's ability to accept the truth about the Archangels.

n7axw wrote:
As for Admiral Manthyr, it could have made a lot of difference. He would have had enough advance warning to make better provision for coping with the storm. In addition to that had he known that Thirsk was at sea, he could have been in a better position to begin concentrating his fleet or retreating toward Claw Is more quickly. Or being able to track Thirsk, he would have had more options for maneuvering. The point is all sorts of options would have opened up.

You're right. I was thinking more about his options once the storm had ravaged his fleet; having access to SNARCs might have enabled him to avoid that situation.

n7axw wrote:
As for coping with the Desnairians, if Shain had access to the snarcs, he could react more quicky to the shipyards where the privateers are being built which is not a minor consideration.

He could, I suppose, but how would he present this information to his men? He'd likely have to present it as yet another arm of the omnipresent seijin spy network. However, there's no reason to bring him into the inner circle to give him that information, and in fact in LaMA he does have a list of shipyards from these spies (September 896, chapter 8). So his ability to target the privateer shipyards wouldn't increase significantly.

Nice post, invisiblebison.

I don't really think we're very far apart in our perspectives. However if Shain had access to the snarcs, he could just play his "seaman's hunches" just like Cayleb did at Armageddon Reef and Craig Reach. Being able to react quicker to the info would do away with the time lag which long term means that fewer of those privateers get to sea.

But I firmly agree with you that he needs to be thoroughly vetted. My suggestion that he be considered as a candidate is not a proposal to go off half cocked and short circuit the process. I just think that he is in a key position to use the info.

Interesting times, huh? Thanks for responding.

Don

n7axw WROTE

[snip]

So maybe its time to start diverting manpower back to the navy.

[snip]

You may be right, but Charis and Siddarmark might feel distinctly nervous about the massive well of manpower in Harchong, and its likely effect on the land war if it is successfully mobilised. As Stalin is supposed to have said "Quantity has a quality all its own."

Peter2 wrote:n7axw WROTE

[snip]

So maybe its time to start diverting manpower back to the navy.

[snip]

You may be right, but Charis and Siddarmark might feel distinctly nervous about the massive well of manpower in Harchong, and its likely effect on the land war if it is successfully mobilised. As Stalin is supposed to have said "Quantity has a quality all its own."

No doubt but what they are nervous. But consider. By spring the Alliance will have reached 670,000 men under arms, all armed with superior weapons and artillery to the bad guys. That doesn't count the militias. Further, the Siddarmarkans have lots of room to grow. Right now warm bodies aren't the issue. Finding weapons to put in the hands of those warm bodies is the issue.

So in the spirit of putting your people where they can do the most good, maybe Charis should be diverting people back to the navy. In light of that last snippet, those convoy patrols need beefing up and they need to go after those privateer nests more agressively. You certainly don't want to arm a new Desnairian army courtesy of Housmyn's manufactories! Twenty-five to fifty thousand more people in naval service could make a real difference.

Corisande is still an untapped sourse of manpower. So I wonder...

Thanks for your response, Peter2.

Don

DrakBibliophile wrote:The Church has his family under their "protection" so if his fleet is needed, then he'll sail with it.

Are they? I do not recall them being moved to Zion or having inquisitors placed in the household.

The more of these snippet I read the more I am beginning to think that the ultimate goal of Nynians efforts are going to focus around Silkiah.

First of all the fact of the timing she wants Merlin to transport her makes me think that she wants to converge two different operations on a single point. She does not need immediate travel, nor does she need timely normal travel time to Zion. She needs immediate travel at a point of time in the future.

The only logical reason why she would need this delay in departure would be the implementation of a plan upon agreement of travel. Also since she is traveling to Zion it would seem to indicate that she would like to set up a plan of action, however did not create its contingency before departing nor before the start of the war.

If She has one plan fully readied in Siddarmark and another plan she needs to start the initial processes of the timing would seem to indicate that both plans could be carried out at similar times.

The two regions for each plan is very far away and divided by a war zone, so the most logical potential zone impact would be somewhere in between. And of the zones that are in between these two focal points Silkiah probably has the most reason to be upset with the current state of things.

Before the war with Sidarmark Silkiah was probably the second most prosperous nation outside the Empire of Charis. Now with the war Silkiah is under suspicions of Charis sympathies because of the avoidance of the trade embargo, a door mat for every army in the southern hemisphere, and has been economically hit in the teeth almost as hard as Sidarmark.

How hard would it really be to piss off Zhaspahr Clyntahn enough to drive Silkiah in to the arms of Charis? Murder a few inquisitors... blow up some munitions factories... harass the supply chain... There are plenty of ways to get Zhaspahr Clyntahn really pissed off at Silkiah. With an over reaction from Zhaspahr and a prepared plan from Nynian’s group getting Silkiah to switch allegiances should be within the realm of possibilities.

While this could be done, under current conditions it would really make no impact. Dohlar is right next door, the Desnair Empire to the south, and Harchong could travel threw Dohlar as well. Not to mention the froward armys that could be pulled back if Silkiah got too uppity. But.. the situation would drastically change if Dohlar started getting pressed from the South March Lands and if Thirsk’s Navy became a non issue. All the sudden 4 potential avenues of attack dwindle down to one, the border to their south.

But why would Silkiah be worth the huge amount of effort to change its allegiance? In terms of military the big advantage would be bottle necking Desnair. A heavily fortified southern border combined with a resupply advantage from the Gulf of Mathyas would make a hard region to break.

Holding Silkiah would also break the semaphore chain to Desnair. Combine this with full control over the Gulf of Dohlar and Silkiah Bay would mean an information blackout to Desnair. Not only would this have huge military implications but also major moral implications as well. Mainlanders are very different from islanders in terms of how they anticipate communications. Those who resides on islands know that there is always uncertainty when it comes to sea travel. But this is not the case for mainland. The information chain of the semaphore stations are as to the sun rising, something that will always be there. Sure there have been surprise attacks and information black outs due to territory annexation, however on the mainland there have never been a complete information void between major active powers.

And lastly the economic damage it would do. The economic damage would be comparable to the embargo placed on Charis. No more gold from the gold mines would flow into the Army of God.No more army supplies or food. No more trade with Desnair at all outside high risk smuggling. If the financial side for Rhobair Duchairn was already on a knife edge before, this will probably push it over. How will the holders of war bonds react if it is believed that not only might the war not end quickly, but there is a possibility of losing? I would love to see what goes on in Rhobair Duchairn’s head if he ever comes to the conclusion that the war is not financially winnable.

TLDR Version - Silkiah has a lot it could offer the Empire of Charis. If the change of power is done right it will start the beginning of the end of the war. Also.. this is Nynian, if she can single handedly save Siddarmark surely with a wish from a demon she can win the war!

Hi Don,

Allow me to differ with you somewhat regarding the alliance's current armed manpower.

Giving the textev of LaMA that the ICA numbered just over 300,000 combat troops in Siddarmark before adding the September chapter 10 force of over 50,000 leaving Port Royal, we might have a total of around 360,000 ICA, not including the 20,000 ICN marines in the south or Hanth's field force of 5-7,000 sailors and marines, and any other miscellaneous naval forces.

Keep in mind that the ratio of rifles is around 75+% of the ICA's division TO&E, so the 360,000 combat troops [~14 divisions and 12 Dragoon brigades] before adding scout snipers, artillery and engineers, might only require roughly 270,000 rifles.

These all replaced their initial rifles with Mahndrayns before going into combat, enormously helping re-equip the RSA.

The RSA fielded first 5 new divisions of ~13,500 riflemen [who are almost all literally riflemen], followed by 10 more for around 200,000 men, while it is currently training another 15 such divisions, without getting into their accompanying artillery, etc.

Until those next 15 divisions actually reach the field by early summer, the alliance will 'only' have around 560,000 combat troops before estimating the numbers for the scout snipers, artillery and engineers, etc.

Since at least 2/3 of the RSA's rifles have come so far from the ICA [maybe 70%?] while DE captured 19,000 and BGV another 9,000 and Hanth 4,000; the remainder of up to near a hundred thousand might made up from Siddarmark production or other possible sources, like ICA/N arsenals in Charis and Chisholm, or local production in Emerald and Tarot.

From the textev I doubt Siddarmark has yet produced half that amount, while Emerald and Tarot could have supplied the balance from production over the last 2-3 years, were they inclined to share so much of their local supply.

OTOH, the alliance may be expecting to make up the probable shortfall with anticipated production from both Charis and Siddarmark as well as fresh captures, which the AoS has generously contributed.

Ahlverez might have as few as 13,000+ rifles of the almost 59,000 rifles the AoS might have had [though I think his force has much more], including those of the infantry from the 67,000 replacements it received, along with up to 31,000+ smooth-bores that might be rifled, just as Charis did after Darcos Sound.

However I suspect DE may reward the local Siddarmarkians who helped dig etc, with a smooth-bore and perhaps one of the Dohlaran heavy cavalry smooth-bore pistols, as both a token of thanks and arming them against potential future threats.

I think Merlin may mumble something about the second amendment when the news reaches SC.

So the number shipped back to SC, after 10,000 rifles are sent to Thesmar and Hanth to reequip Fyguera and Somyr's men who still had smooth-bores and arbalests, might be as few as ~40,000.

That still might leave around 35,000 men of the RSA in those next 15 divisions needing rifles, but that could be met by what BGV and Symkyn do to Wyrshym and Kaitswyrth.


Then again, by May Charis may have made and shipped ~54,000 M96's for one ICA army [BGV or DE?] so their Mahndrayns could be turned over to the RSA.

So by this summer the alliance might have something close to 800,000 combat troops in the field, when the scout snipers and artillery are added.

So they could surpass the MHoGatA's number of rifles, assuming theirs all arrived.

Interesting times indeed.

L

n7axw wrote:

Peter2 wrote:n7axw WROTE

[snip]

So maybe its time to start diverting manpower back to the navy.

[snip]

You may be right, but Charis and Siddarmark might feel distinctly nervous about the massive well of manpower in Harchong, and its likely effect on the land war if it is successfully mobilised. As Stalin is supposed to have said "Quantity has a quality all its own."

No doubt but what they are nervous. But consider. By spring the Alliance will have reached 670,000 men under arms, all armed with superior weapons and artillery to the bad guys. That doesn't count the militias. Further, the Siddarmarkans have lots of room to grow. Right now warm bodies aren't the issue. Finding weapons to put in the hands of those warm bodies is the issue.

So in the spirit of putting your people where they can do the most good, maybe Charis should be diverting people back to the navy. In light of that last snippet, those convoy patrols need beefing up and they need to go after those privateer nests more agressively. You certainly don't want to arm a new Desnairian army courtesy of Housmyn's manufactories! Twenty-five to fifty thousand more people in naval service could make a real difference.

Corisande is still an untapped sourse of manpower. So I wonder...

Thanks for your response, Peter2.

Don

Hi Theorist84,

Welcome to the forums, enjoy your favorite simulated beverage on the simulated forum.

I think Nynian means Zion, since so far that's where we know she has a working network.

Regarding Silkiah, congratulations!

There are many who agree with you, including me.

Great minds, huh?

Keep the excellent posts coming.

L

theorist84 wrote:The more of these snippet I read the more I am beginning to think that the ultimate goal of Nynians efforts are going to focus around Silkiah.

First of all the fact of the timing she wants Merlin to transport her makes me think that she wants to converge two different operations on a single point. She does not need immediate travel, nor does she need timely normal travel time to Zion. She needs immediate travel at a point of time in the future.

The only logical reason why she would need this delay in departure would be the implementation of a plan upon agreement of travel. Also since she is traveling to Zion it would seem to indicate that she would like to set up a plan of action, however did not create its contingency before departing nor before the start of the war.

If She has one plan fully readied in Siddarmark and another plan she needs to start the initial processes of the timing would seem to indicate that both plans could be carried out at similar times.

The two regions for each plan is very far away and divided by a war zone, so the most logical potential zone impact would be somewhere in between. And of the zones that are in between these two focal points Silkiah probably has the most reason to be upset with the current state of things.

Before the war with Sidarmark Silkiah was probably the second most prosperous nation outside the Empire of Charis. Now with the war Silkiah is under suspicions of Charis sympathies because of the avoidance of the trade embargo, a door mat for every army in the southern hemisphere, and has been economically hit in the teeth almost as hard as Sidarmark.

How hard would it really be to piss off Zhaspahr Clyntahn enough to drive Silkiah in to the arms of Charis? Murder a few inquisitors... blow up some munitions factories... harass the supply chain... There are plenty of ways to get Zhaspahr Clyntahn really pissed off at Silkiah. With an over reaction from Zhaspahr and a prepared plan from Nynian’s group getting Silkiah to switch allegiances should be within the realm of possibilities.

While this could be done, under current conditions it would really make no impact. Dohlar is right next door, the Desnair Empire to the south, and Harchong could travel threw Dohlar as well. Not to mention the froward armys that could be pulled back if Silkiah got too uppity. But.. the situation would drastically change if Dohlar started getting pressed from the South March Lands and if Thirsk’s Navy became a non issue. All the sudden 4 potential avenues of attack dwindle down to one, the border to their south.

But why would Silkiah be worth the huge amount of effort to change its allegiance? In terms of military the big advantage would be bottle necking Desnair. A heavily fortified southern border combined with a resupply advantage from the Gulf of Mathyas would make a hard region to break.

Holding Silkiah would also break the semaphore chain to Desnair. Combine this with full control over the Gulf of Dohlar and Silkiah Bay would mean an information blackout to Desnair. Not only would this have huge military implications but also major moral implications as well. Mainlanders are very different from islanders in terms of how they anticipate communications. Those who resides on islands know that there is always uncertainty when it comes to sea travel. But this is not the case for mainland. The information chain of the semaphore stations are as to the sun rising, something that will always be there. Sure there have been surprise attacks and information black outs due to territory annexation, however on the mainland there have never been a complete information void between major active powers.

And lastly the economic damage it would do. The economic damage would be comparable to the embargo placed on Charis. No more gold from the gold mines would flow into the Army of God.No more army supplies or food. No more trade with Desnair at all outside high risk smuggling. If the financial side for Rhobair Duchairn was already on a knife edge before, this will probably push it over. How will the holders of war bonds react if it is believed that not only might the war not end quickly, but there is a possibility of losing? I would love to see what goes on in Rhobair Duchairn’s head if he ever comes to the conclusion that the war is not financially winnable.

TLDR Version - Silkiah has a lot it could offer the Empire of Charis. If the change of power is done right it will start the beginning of the end of the war. Also.. this is Nynian, if she can single handedly save Siddarmark surely with a wish from a demon she can win the war!

Potato wrote:

DrakBibliophile wrote:The Church has his family under their "protection" so if his fleet is needed, then he'll sail with it.

Are they? I do not recall them being moved to Zion or having inquisitors placed in the household.

See RFC's post regarding this.

Excerpt from the post:

runsforcelery wrote:...snip...
His resistance to the order to turn over the POWs to the Inquisition would have gotten him killed, would have added yet more proof for Clyntahn of the "corrupting" effect of the Charisian heretics, would have deprived the military leadership of Dohlar of any voice of sanity or reason, would have precluded any future possibility of his doing anything at all effective about Clyntahn and the Inquisition at any future date, and would have gotten his family killed.
...snip...

So it's not clearcut that his family is under the inquisitions "protection" (read the whole post linked above), but essentially his situation is that when Clynthan says jump he has to jump (for now anyway).