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Illogical decisions

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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by runsforcelery   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 8:33 pm

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Philip Stanley wrote:This post is not a discussion of illogical decisions - it is a question regarding what seems to me to be a failure by Merlin to take a logical action.
In BSRA Merlin returns from the Monastery of Saint Zherneau and learns from OWL about the 212 colonists reprogrammed by Pei Shan-wei. He knows that four of these are Jeremiah and Evelyn Knowles and Kayleb and Jennifer Sarmac, the four who were placed in the Tellesberg colony.
My question is: why didn't he use OWL's resources to identify the colonies where the other 208 reprogrammed colonists were placed? That seems like such an obvious next step: to find out which other colonies had been seeded with Pei Shan-wei's "arrows" and if any of these colonies showed any sign of their influence.
Not to take this obvious step is not logical, and I can't help wondering why the omnipotent AUTHOR did not have Merlin do this. We're only finding out NOW (6 volumes later!) that one of the groups was placed in Zion, and even now we learn this not because of Merlin's researches, but because that group revealed themselves him.
I can only conclude that the AUTHOR has plans for these revelations of group locations in future plot arcs, and deliberately had Merlin fail to do the obvious research. IMHO it's a little manipulative, but what the heck, it's his universe.
Philip Stanley


What makes you think he didn't do exactly that? :o


"Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as Piglet came back from the dead.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Ramhawkfan   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:39 pm

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runsforcelery wrote:
Philip Stanley wrote:This post is not a discussion of illogical decisions - it is a question regarding what seems to me to be a failure by Merlin to take a logical action.
In BSRA Merlin returns from the Monastery of Saint Zherneau and learns from OWL about the 212 colonists reprogrammed by Pei Shan-wei. He knows that four of these are Jeremiah and Evelyn Knowles and Kayleb and Jennifer Sarmac, the four who were placed in the Tellesberg colony.
My question is: why didn't he use OWL's resources to identify the colonies where the other 208 reprogrammed colonists were placed? That seems like such an obvious next step: to find out which other colonies had been seeded with Pei Shan-wei's "arrows" and if any of these colonies showed any sign of their influence.
Not to take this obvious step is not logical, and I can't help wondering why the omnipotent AUTHOR did not have Merlin do this. We're only finding out NOW (6 volumes later!) that one of the groups was placed in Zion, and even now we learn this not because of Merlin's researches, but because that group revealed themselves him.
I can only conclude that the AUTHOR has plans for these revelations of group locations in future plot arcs, and deliberately had Merlin fail to do the obvious research. IMHO it's a little manipulative, but what the heck, it's his universe.
Philip Stanley


What makes you think he didn't do exactly that? :o


LOL
This makes the case why we shouldn't be too quick to criticize our illustrious Celery Chaser when we don't have all the textev yet.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by pokermind   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:41 pm

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OK any such organization must keep its activities hidden from the Inquisition, so what if anything would suggest the Monastery of St. Who Ever is a hot bed of unorthodoxy? If the Snarks could see it then the Inquisition would also.

Any unorthodox writings would be hidden, rarely viewed. A snark would be damn lucky to encounter them.

Lets face it there is a limited mumber of snarks and well there is a war on ;)

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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Philip Stanley   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:27 pm

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When I posted earlier in this thread regarding Merlin's failure to research the other 208 reprogrammed colonists, I wasn't thinking of identifying the specific organization or location they may have established. It is probable that any organization or group they may have initially established would have been secret and concealed to prevent suppression by the Temple.
What I was thinking of was rather of a group's influence on the culture or beliefs of their region of Safehold by it's influence applied over the hundreds of years since the colonization of the planet. The group might have been clandestine, but it's influence might be more discerned.
Why, for instance, did Siddermark develop a republican form of government? Or Harchong or Desnair a slave/serf based culture (not all of the groups would necessarily influence a culture in the same direction)? This is what I meant when I said that Merlin should look for their "influences"
Philip Stanley
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by DrakBibliophile   » Tue Aug 26, 2014 11:53 pm

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Two thoughts.

First, there's a war on. Resources spent on trying to identify "influences" are likely needed elsewhere.

Second, how do you identify influences? We now know about the actions of the Brethren and how they aided in creating the Charis that exists now. But how would Merlin and Owl be able to realize that some group influenced the development of the current Charis if they didn't already know how the Brethren influenced Charis?

I think even Prince Nahrmahn (after his death) would have a hard time examining all the threads of history that lead to the founding of Siddarmark's republic (for example) and discovering the traces of some hidden group's influences. Of course, Prince Nahrmahn would be busy assisting in the important intelligence work necessary in winning the current war.

I suspect that it would take an AI on the level of Dahak to uncover possible influences and Dahak doesn't exist in this story universe. :twisted: :twisted:




Philip Stanley wrote:When I posted earlier in this thread regarding Merlin's failure to research the other 208 reprogrammed colonists, I wasn't thinking of identifying the specific organization or location they may have established. It is probable that any organization or group they may have initially established would have been secret and concealed to prevent suppression by the Temple.
What I was thinking of was rather of a group's influence on the culture or beliefs of their region of Safehold by it's influence applied over the hundreds of years since the colonization of the planet. The group might have been clandestine, but it's influence might be more discerned.
Why, for instance, did Siddermark develop a republican form of government? Or Harchong or Desnair a slave/serf based culture (not all of the groups would necessarily influence a culture in the same direction)? This is what I meant when I said that Merlin should look for their "influences"
Philip Stanley
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Hildum   » Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:18 am

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runsforcelery wrote:
What makes you think he didn't do exactly that? :o


It would have been the obvious question, but there is really not much value in the answer after 800 odd years. Any group that was planted needed to stay secret, and the events of the next hundred years would only demonstrate the need to really stay hidden. Even if Merlin could locate one of these groups, at the time he would not have been able to do much: "Just popping in to say hi, and I know about you secrets." would likely not get very far. He has to vet anybody he shares his knowledge with very carefully.

As others have pointed out, it is a matter of priorities, and there is not a lot that another secret group could do for him, unless it was exceptionally well placed and capable (and he can trust it).
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Bruno Behrends   » Wed Aug 27, 2014 1:36 am

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I would like to add the following:

A literary universe is not a means in itself - it exists for the purpose of allowing a certain story to be told.

Thus follows that the literary universe has its rules set up in a way which makes it possible for the story to unfold in the way its meant to unfold.

Now one can of course rage against these rules and think them 'illogical'. I don't know how much sense that makes though. That's like saying 'I want to read a totally different story'.

Well then: Go read a different story!

DrakBibliophile wrote:One individual has been complaining that one of David Weber's characters (Merlin) has ignored/won't do things that the individual thinks are logical actions.

I hope the following isn't taken as an attack on him or anybody else. It's just my thoughts on "logical or illogical decisions" of people and characters.

First and foremost, many people see the actions of others as "illogical" because they operate on different assumptions than the other person.

In any logical debate there are "premises" that the person based their arguments on. The problem is often that the other person may not accept the "premises" that the first person starts from. Even worse, in informal discussions, the premises may not be expressly stated and the person may not consciously realize what premises he is starting from. So another person operating with different premises, will find the statements as illogical.

Of course, there's also the problem of "incomplete" information. IE we think that a person's actions are illogical because the other person knows something we don't.

In addition, there's the problem that even intelligent people do stupid things. Sometimes the person realizes that "he did an idiot thing" but other times the person may try to blame others on his mistakes.

In an article on another site, David Weber talked about a historical person who by all accounts was very smart but took actions that afterwards seem very stupid. David Weber said that if he were to base a character on this person, many of his readers would find the character unbelievable.

Of course, people doing "idiot things" also involves the person's emotional state. Depressed people do idiot things because of their depression (I speak here from personal experience). Our emotional state strongly influences how we think so it's not surprising that we can make illogical decisions.

To bring things back to the Safehold-universe, let's consider the situation at the time of Project Ark. Mankind had been fighting a losing war for its survival for about thirty years. That is not going to be a positive influence on how well people were thinking.

For all of Nimue's life and military service, war was seen as being done to protect human life. While military personnel, in the past and currently, are painfully aware that their actions will cause the deaths of innocents on the "other side", Nimue's war was different. The Gbaba were aliens and at the time of Project Ark, no "innocent" Gbaba could be harmed by the Federation's actions.

So here's Merlin carrying all the emotional baggage of the original Nimue involved in a war where no matter what he does, human lives will be lost. It is not surprising to me that Merlin may make less than logical decisions. He has never thought about "collateral damage" in times of war.

Finally David Weber has said (in my words) that everybody in the Federation was slightly insane. This explains (but not excuses) the actions of Langhorne and the command staff. This also explains Merlin's less than rational feelings/thoughts when it comes to collateral damage.
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Re: Illogical decisions
Post by Chyort   » Wed Aug 27, 2014 4:20 am

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It would make a certain amount of sense for Merlin to avoid actively looking for more groups... Worst case he finds them all, and tells the inner circle, and then gets betrayed.

An absolute worst case, true, but it is still possible.

As it is now, even if "Something" wakes up, and destroys Merlin and Charis, those other hidden groups could possibly save humanity one day. As long as they stay hidden now.

Why put all your eggs in one basket when their addition may or may not significantly help your cause? That was the whole point of scattering them to the wind in the first place. Heh ;)

Merlin found one group and that let him get his foot in the door and build his inner circle with the whole truth. Finding a second group that has been hiding for 800 years isn't likly to be as vital as the first group was. Helpful, possibly... But not vital.


I am not trying to say that Merlin is or isn't looking, merely pointing out an different view point.
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