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HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15

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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:21 pm

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Hi Randomiser,

Again kudos for all the many excellent points.

The obvious internal conflicts the CoGA would face if Rhobair were to offer to negotiate with the heretics are too great for him or the 'Go3' to fully contemplate, since there would be too much opposition.

I don't see Trynair or Magwair risking their positions or lives to satisfy Duchairn.

So just how long does the 'Go3' last until its the 'Go2'?

L


Randomiser wrote:
PeterZ wrote:Don,

Don't conflate the Church's moral authority for that of the G4. In all my arguments I have emphasized Clyntahn being blamed for the jihad. Think about what the opposing clerics call themselves...Reformists. They don't want to destroy the CoGA. Just like the Sisters of St. Khody, the want to reform the CoGA. Removing the ungodly from power is just a start.

The loyalists will accept reform if the CoGA accepts reformation. The CoC and reformists must present arguments that persuade the CoGA. That is most likely done before the EoC conquers the jihadis militarily.

So the blame for the jihad falls on human corruption and is repaired by a faithful son of God. Clyntahn is removed and a Godly man takes over. That godly man offers to negotiate peace. How can the Allies ever reject that peace without confirming that they serve the Dark in the eyes of loyalists? That confirmation is only emohasized with a military defeat. God is letting the Dark temper the souls of his children just as He used the Dark to temper the souls of mankind in the War of the Fallen.

I know you and many others disagree with ne, Don. I just don't see how Duchairn can risk military defeat when that would make reunification nearly impossible? He either conquers Charis and slowly integrates them back into the CoGA over time or negotiates some autonomy for the CoC and true CoGA reform. A military defeat means Duchairn has failed again to heal his Church. I don't believe he can let that happen.



Peter, it isn't Don who suggests the War has cost the CoGA its moral authority it's Nahrman (and hence RFC, most probably)

I think you swing back and forward between assuming the Safeholdians are naive and sophisticated as it suits your argument. You assume they see things strictly in black and white sometimes, 'if the EoC win the war outright they must be serving the dark', but sometimes assume they easily detect considerable grey areas, 'the war is the fault of the GoF not the CoGA'. In fact the text shows that many ordinary CoGA Safehold people are sickened by the things the church is doing and making them do in this war. Some of them realise the church hierarchy is letting itself be used by the GoF just to save its own skin, which in itself destroys its moral authority. There are naive Safeholders, but the more naive they are the more they believe all the instructions come from the CoGA itself, after all, the Grand Vicar proclaimed the Jihad from Langhorne's throne. They, plus the Inquisition, will make it impossible for Duchairn to hold a rump CoGA together if he tries to do a deal with the Heretics.

Duchairn is not a 'godly man', he is a mass murderer who helps old ladies across the road and gives food parcels to little orphan children. He may now be a mass murderer with moral qualms, but we have yet to see how much of that is repentance and how much is just remorse because the original plans didn't work out, they are now getting whupped and Clyntahn keeps digging them deeper into the hole. If Clyntahn and the cruelty were gone and the Church were somehow winning, I'm not at all convinced Duchairn would conclude a peace that allowed the CoC to continue.

Of course the CoGA is going to persist beyond this war and of course it needs reformed, but by far the safest, and most likely way to do that is after a thorough military victory on the Allies part. Let's face it, even 'now' it would be real hard to convince anyone with two brain cells to rub together that any peace offer on the CoGA's part wasn't made because they were losing the war. Besides,'It was all that bad man's fault and the rest of us are good people, really.', is an impossible 'sell'; too many people have started looking at the church with different eyes. (Which brings us back to Nahrman's comment.)

Merlin fully expects that the next wars, over the Great Reveal and the consequent religious issues, are going to be even nastier and bloodier than this one. Lasting peace isn't coming for quite a while, absent a real surprise of some kind from RFC.
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:32 pm

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Hi JeffEngel,

Thanks very much for the masterful analysis of Duchairn.

I think its as good as Merlin's analysis of Harless. :D

We have no textev at all that Rhobair contemplates anything other than victory, so the implication of treating with the heretics is right out of the blue for now.

It's been half a year since we had Go4 members meeting, perhaps we'll have one soon to figure out what to do with the MHoG after Harless has been destroyed.

L


JeffEngel wrote:
Randomiser wrote:Duchairn is not a 'godly man', he is a mass murderer who helps old ladies across the road and gives food parcels to little orphan children. He may now be a mass murderer with moral qualms, but we have yet to see how much of that is repentance and how much is just remorse because the original plans didn't work out, they are now getting whupped and Clyntahn keeps digging them deeper into the hole. If Clyntahn and the cruelty were gone and the Church were somehow winning, I'm not at all convinced Duchairn would conclude a peace that allowed the CoC to continue.
I think Duchairn was a classic Temple politician who realized only after the Church had committed Safehold to religious war that that was just what they were doing and how bad that would be - win or lose. Unlike Clyntahn, he knows that's a bad thing; unlike Magwair and definitely unlike Trynair, he's not taking it as an extension of business-as-usual. But his only way out - in service to his principles, the ones he realized too late actually apply - is through to "victory", as he sees it.

I do think he's still in denial. He doesn't think that a fractured Church is acceptable, but nothing but a fractured Church would be anything but a monster now. The Church he serves - the ideal he cares about, anyway - can't be re-imposed in blood and terror, and there's no other way it would return to Siddarmark or the Out Islands now. If he accepted that, he may have to accept that all the work he's done trying to fight through to "victory" is again going along with an abomination.

But he's cursed with too much thought and imagination and using it when it's to be too late to do enough good with it. If he figures out that the unity of the Church on Safehold is no longer compatible with the virtue of that Church - and doesn't make a suicidal run on Clyntahn so he can die and end this personal and world hell - maybe, just maybe, he can finally get ahead and be a part of a full solution that's still a real possibility.

Would it ever make him a Godly man? I don't know. But really, a man who can do a job that desperately needs doing may be better.
Of course the CoGA is going to persist beyond this war and of course it needs reformed, but by far the safest, and most likely way to do that is after a thorough military victory on the Allies part. Let's face it, even 'now' it would be real hard to convince anyone with two brain cells to rub together that any peace offer on the CoGA's part wasn't made because they were losing the war. Besides,'It was all that bad man's fault and the rest of us are good people, really.', is an impossible 'sell'; too many people have started looking at the church with different eyes. (Which brings us back to Nahrman's comment.)
Ya, I think the Church is going to need the CoC and its secular forces to stomp the worst parts of it to bits before the better parts of it can ever be safe. The careful, conditional surrender will invite a stab-in-the-back, never-really-defeated narrative just like in Germany between the world wars. An un-generous, imposed "peace" settlement may be about as bad. And even threading that needle perfectly will leave a whole lot of upheaval left to happen, painfully.
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by lyonheart   » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:38 pm

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Hi Don,

Excellent point as usual.

Which has been documented by the SSK, and once publicized further argues against letting the CoGA survive.

While the 'return' is less than 20 years off, and RFC's hint that Cayleb starts the 'great reveal' avalanche earlier than planned, the shocks in store seem more catastrophic for the CoGA true believers than the CoC etc.

L


n7axw wrote:Part of my perspective here is experiential. I've learned the hard way, as a clergyman, that misbehavior on the part of clergy tars the reputation of the entire church. Further, it tars my reputation and makes it more difficult for me to do my job.

What has happened on Safehold is far worse, not just with the G-4, but going all the way back to Langhorne.

Don
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by n7axw   » Thu Apr 02, 2015 10:45 pm

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Hi all,

Rather than try to respond to everything here in some excellent posts, I am going to makea couple points of my own that seem relavant to the discussion.

The first thing is that Clyntahn can't be exclusively blamed for what has happened with the jihad. To be sure his actions have earned him an enormous amount of guilt. But the mindset that Clyntahn represents goes far deeper than just one individual and back to the Archangels themselves whom he is representing far more faithfully than he himself realizes. Remember Armageddon Reef and the Book of Schueler. Clyntahn is merely a symptom, albeit a particularly nasty one, of what has gone wrong with the COGA.

The same is true of the G-4 as a whole as Narhman points out to Pine Hallow in that final conversation before Pine Hallow goes off to treat with Cayleb. They are only the symptom of what is produced when the entire vicarate is playing its own version of "the great game," all the while wallowing in the corruption created by about 20% of the GDP of an entire planet flowing into the coffers of Zion. It isn't merely the G-4 that needs to go. It is the entire vicarate along with the corruption and abuse of power it represents.

That means that the notion of reforming the system is flawed. What is needed is not to reform it, but to do away with it as it stands. The vicars serve no useful purpose so abolish the Council of Vicars and let the archbishops reside in their sees and focus on being pastors to their underbishops, priests and people.

Clergy should not be in a position of exercizing political power. Take that away along with the excessive tithes and you stop attracting people to the clergy for whom those things are of paramount importance. They will go into a different vocation to get rich.

Nuff for now,

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by lyonheart   » Fri Apr 03, 2015 12:48 am

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Hi PeterZ,

Where is the textev that the CoGA has cleansed 'itself numerous times'?

Given the mysterious death of Seijin Khody, it hasn't been cleansed in a very long time, regardless of any public pronouncements, ie any have been more cosmetic than effective.

We have no indication of any such cleansing in the last 200 years or so since St Everard was murdered, which is rather long to wait hoping something happens for the better .

Given that the circle waited 20 years without there being a cleansing implies they're so rare they would be signally recognised.

Once the reputations of the vicars Nynian has had assassinated become public thanks to OWL, that Clyntahn's supporters have been protected by the inquisition to continue their criminal acts as long as they supported him, how much lower can the vicarate's reputation fall?

Since losing the jihad obviously means the CoGA is no longer being blessed by God for some reason [what did they do to be so punished?], perhaps those surprised might consider that the CoC and reformists are right after all.

Given that the Holy Writ likely teaches that the victory over the fallen was inevitable, the alliance victory proves God is on their side.

Especially when the CoGA members experience the results of the alliance winning which are largely positive.

What evidence is there that Rhobair wants, let alone sees any chance of 'healing' the CoGA?

Duchairn's renewal of faith is a personal matter, totally independent of what was happening in the CoGA; there is no indication he's wanted, desired, mentioned or tried to reform anything about the CoGA, nor has his example generated much interest by his colleagues in following his example.

That alone indicates how far from salvage the vicarate is.

Being a realist, knowing all of the above, hoping let alone expecting to heal the schism is rather remote in Rhobair's thinking or planning in my opinion.

What are the terms you think the alliance must accept?

What peace can Rhobair promise will persist beyond him when any hints of negotiation or admission of guilt will immediately trigger an internal civil war in the CoGA?

After more than 20 years of running the inquisition, who's left that isn't a Clyntahn crony?

10%? 5%? 2%

You seriously think the inquisition is going to accept its destruction quietly?

Even if Rhobair's peace overtures are truly honest, what chance are they in any way practical or worthwhile in pursuing?

How can a disarmed, impoverished church enforce any of its peace promises, even if it were willing to try?

Ignoring such petty peace overtures, what I can only see as vapor; the EoC will actually be quite properly seen as being prudent and wise in doing so, not giving up it's costly yet worthy prize of victory for 'a mess of pottage' of such pathetic promises.

Since the CoGA has pledged to destroy the EoC, why can't it destroy the CoGA in return, in simple reciprocity as Admiral Yairley pointed out in HFaF, since an eye for an eye is evidently in the Holy Writ?

How is naturally fighting for their survival somehow seen as evil?

Since their war is aimed at the Go4, not the vast membership of the CoGA spread across the continents, the EoC has never threatened to destroy the bulk of the CoGA membership [unlike the CoGA], ie the church in general or their beliefs, and has plainly made that point repeatedly even in private conversations, as well as sermons and public pronouncements, so twisting their struggle into an obvious evil seems too much of a stretch. ;)

Exactly when or how did the EoC state it only wanted to reform the CoGA?

Since even the TL's in Tellesberg know the CoGA has promised only annihilation to all of Charis etc regardless of whether they are fervent TL's, and all saw that promise being fulfilled in Siddarmark especially by our ex TL's now anti-CoGA soldiers, I doubt many would be upset if the alliance announced it was ensuring such atrocities would never happen to its citizens again.

The alliance menu of options is far greater than Duchairn's, and his is far more limited than you've suggested.

L


PeterZ wrote:
Randomiser wrote:Peter, it isn't Don who suggests the War has cost the CoGA its moral authority it's Nahrman (and hence RFC, most probably)

I think you swing back and forward between assuming the Safeholdians are naive and sophisticated as it suits your argument. You assume they see things strictly in black and white sometimes, 'if the EoC win the war outright they must be serving the dark', but sometimes assume they easily detect considerable grey areas, 'the war is the fault of the GoF not the CoGA'. In fact the text shows that many ordinary CoGA Safehold people are sickened by the things the church is doing and making them do in this war. Some of them realise the church hierarchy is letting itself be used by the GoF just to save its own skin, which in itself destroys its moral authority. There are naive Safeholders, but the more naive they are the more they believe all the instructions come from the CoGA itself, after all, the Grand Vicar proclaimed the Jihad from Langhorne's throne. They, plus the Inquisition, will make it impossible for Duchairn to hold a rump CoGA together if he tries to do a deal with the Heretics.

Duchairn is not a 'godly man', he is a mass murderer who helps old ladies across the road and gives food parcels to little orphan children. He may now be a mass murderer with moral qualms, but we have yet to see how much of that is repentance and how much is just remorse because the original plans didn't work out, they are now getting whupped and Clyntahn keeps digging them deeper into the hole. If Clyntahn and the cruelty were gone and the Church were somehow winning, I'm not at all convinced Duchairn would conclude a peace that allowed the CoC to continue.

Of course the CoGA is going to persist beyond this war and of course it needs reformed, but by far the safest, and most likely way to do that is after a thorough military victory on the Allies part. Let's face it, even 'now' it would be real hard to convince anyone with two brain cells to rub together that any peace offer on the CoGA's part wasn't made because they were losing the war. Besides,'It was all that bad man's fault and the rest of us are good people, really.', is an impossible 'sell'; too many people have started looking at the church with different eyes. (Which brings us back to Nahrman's comment.)

Merlin fully expects that the next wars, over the Great Reveal and the consequent religious issues, are going to be even nastier and bloodier than this one. Lasting peace isn't coming for quite a while, absent a real surprise of some kind from RFC.


Jeff,

I am not restating my entire argument with each post. Let us review that argument.

Safehold has a monolithic religious, moral, legal and natural philosophy paradigm derived from the Writ. It is as stated in this snippet a seamless description of God's will.

God created EVERYTHING and left proof of this fact for every Safeholdian to recognize.

God, through His archangels, left behind His will for mankind found in the Writ.

He created the Church to guide mankind in the proper way of life that would please Him.

To a Safeholdian every aspect of life is touched by God. Skills passed from father to son since Creation were first given to man by the archangels. Blessings and curse are littered in every Safehodlians life that remind them that the world around them is the product of the active will of God and His archangels fighting the active malice of the Dark. This last sentence is worth repeating.

Every aspect of existence on Safehold is made possible by the active will of God and His archangels fighting the active malice of the Dark. As an example, microorganisms are demons set loose by Shan-wei to harm mankind but are thwarted by Hasting's(?) blessings. This belief is universally held outside of the St. Zherneau Inner Circle. There is no choice for Safeholdians but to accept those rules as facts of life, because as Merlin mused in this snippet the proof of God's existence is unassailable. His existence and His will are fact. Disobeying God is placing the souls of everyone an individual loves at risk. This isn't part of some nuanced theology that might be taught but part of the bedrock foundation of the Safeholdian belief structure and is at the very heart of the CoGA's power.

To these people Clyntahn is terrifying and Duchairn is a godly man, but both are acting within the scope of the CoGA authority as given by God. Clyntahn has the authority to do what he does, but is corrupt and uses that power for impure motives. Duchairn is viewed as using his authority to help God's children. Recall Duchairn has not visibly supported Clyntahn's purge of the Vicarate. If the CoGA cleanses itself as it has done numerous times since Creation, that is part of God's plan. If the CoGA is defeated and dictated to by outside forces, how else is that described than a victory by the Dark? If the loyalist priests preach that the schism will not be healed. If many priests do not preach that, those that do will claim coercion. If those priests are removed from office, coercion is proved. If those priests are not removed, the rupture remains.

Any arguments made to assert that God has removed his authority from the CoGA must be made within the context of the Writ. The Writ, however, a stipulates that the CoGA HAS the authority to act as it has. Safeholdians have had that drilled ceaselessly into their heads. The only argument that might be made from the outside is that the authority God granted the CoGA has been abused. That argument is likely being accepted throughout all of Safehold by now. Once the jihadi forces have been destroyed, the truth of that argument will be universally accepted because God did not bless the CoGA forces with victory.

If the CoGA fights to the bitter end and is defeated, it will be concluded that everyone of God's agents within His Church has lost His blessing. If the perceived godly one, Duchairn, within the CoGA appears to recognize his error and attempts to fix it, he will be given the benefit of the doubt that God has NOT withdrawn His blessings from the CoGA. If the EoC does not accept the offer to negotiate, they will lose the growing certainty that God does bless their cause.

Duchairn wants to heal the CoGA and knows that defeat by the EoC will make that healing infinitely harder and less likely than willingly reforming the CoGA. If he does not heal his church and the resulting generations of strife claims more lives, they will be on his head as he would see it. He must try to mitigate that cost in lives and reform the CoGA. This is at the core of his renewal of faith.

If Duchairn promises reform under terms that the Allies must accept, the Allies will have no choice but to give peace a chance. This will be especially true, if Clyntahn is killed and the Inquisition is purged of his cronies. If the EoC ignores the honest peace overtures by Duchairn, it will be correctly seen as a desire to destroy the CoGA not to reform it. That will destroy the support of many in Old Charis and likely most in Siddermark and the rest of the Empire. They can't risk that.

I am not saying these options are best for the EoC and the good guys. I am saying these are the menu of options Duchairn will have before him. His projected decisions are based on the text of his internal monologues. I don't believe these fundamental elements of Safehold will change until the Writ is discredited and that won't be possible until the Return.
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by lyonheart   » Fri Apr 03, 2015 1:15 am

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Hi Don,

What can I say but that its another great post with excellent analysis? :D

Scapegoating Clyntahn for everything that's gone wrong for nearly a thousand years is plainly absurd, trying it will only further reduce any remaining credibility the CoGA might have left.

The purpose of the vicarate was to enforce the prohibitions etc,, the KotTL was to provide the independent wealth and manpower while the double tithes ensured economic domination and financial strangulation of any potential opposition.

Its now failed because they got too self indulgent and ignored the out islands and Siddarmark's growing independence.

Occupying the eastern half of the KotTL will dramatically reduce the KotTL's future potential power, making the second tithe voluntary will dramatically reduce all the excess cash to enforce its will upon Safehold, a very good prescription, expecting the CoGA to go along or support it is a different problem.

Reducing the perks of power will definitely reduce the number seeking them in the church.

L


n7axw wrote:Hi all,

Rather than try to respond to everything here in some excellent posts, I am going to makea couple points of my own that seem relavant to the discussion.

The first thing is that Clyntahn can't be exclusively blamed for what has happened with the jihad. To be sure his actions have earned him an enormous amount of guilt. But the mindset that Clyntahn represents goes far deeper than just one individual and back to the Archangels themselves whom he is representing far more faithfully than he himself realizes. Remember Armageddon Reef and the Book of Schueler. Clyntahn is merely a symptom, albeit a particularly nasty one, of what has gone wrong with the COGA.

The same is true of the G-4 as a whole as Narhman points out to Pine Hallow in that final conversation before Pine Hallow goes off to treat with Cayleb. They are only the symptom of what is produced when the entire vicarate is playing its own version of "the great game," all the while wallowing in the corruption created by about 20% of the GDP of an entire planet flowing into the coffers of Zion. It isn't merely the G-4 that needs to go. It is the entire vicarate along with the corruption and abuse of power it represents.

That means that the notion of reforming the system is flawed. What is needed is not to reform it, but to do away with it as it stands. The vicars serve no useful purpose so abolish the Council of Vicars and let the archbishops reside in their sees and focus on being pastors to their underbishops, priests and people.

Clergy should not be in a position of exercizing political power. Take that away along with the excessive tithes and you stop attracting people to the clergy for whom those things are of paramount importance. They will go into a different vocation to get rich.

Nuff for now,

Don
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by Weird Harold   » Fri Apr 03, 2015 4:56 am

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lyonheart wrote:Exactly what can Rhobair offer the CoC and reformists they won't have already achieved on their own?


That is a point that is overlooked in this discussion. I don't recall exact details, but several distinct "Reform" directions have been mentioned in Corisande alone. The EoC's policy of religious freedom, allowing Temple Loyalists and Reformist clergy to operate each congregation according to their conscience has resulted in a divergence of doctrine very similar to the expansion of Protestants into hundred of different "religions."
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Answers! I got lots of answers!

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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by Peter2   » Fri Apr 03, 2015 5:47 am

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lyonheart wrote:Hi PeterZ,


[snip]

After more than 20 years of running the inquisition, who's left that isn't a Clyntahn crony?

10%? 5%? 2%

You seriously think the inquisition is going to accept its destruction quietly?

[snip]



I think this is a very good point. There is very little more vicious than a vested interest dressed in the clothes of a moral principle.
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by JeffEngel   » Fri Apr 03, 2015 7:34 am

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Weird Harold wrote:
lyonheart wrote:Exactly what can Rhobair offer the CoC and reformists they won't have already achieved on their own?


That is a point that is overlooked in this discussion. I don't recall exact details, but several distinct "Reform" directions have been mentioned in Corisande alone. The EoC's policy of religious freedom, allowing Temple Loyalists and Reformist clergy to operate each congregation according to their conscience has resulted in a divergence of doctrine very similar to the expansion of Protestants into hundred of different "religions."

What's more, so far - and indications for the future look decent enough - they are setting a firm example of mutual toleration in the face of differences, and a willingness to let secular authorities stand as overarching secular powers rather than as the pawns that must be seized and controlled to pursue religious hegemony.

The Church of Charis itself is operating as a kind of umbrella organization rather than a theological monolith, letting member states and parishes (even members) work out their beliefs on their own within some bounds, and having convocations to make sure they're all in the same book if not necessarily on the same page.

Granted, Temple Loyalists in Charis do harbor the occasional terrorist, but most of them remain loyal to their monarchs as well as their Church and the two Churches in Charis are cooperating in practice if not formally.

Managing adequate reform in the CoGA is going to require a muscular Charisian example and likely the threat of it coming in and seizing remaining Church assets entirely to make any reform-minded vicars of the future be able to pull it off. Duchairn is still thinking (as far as we know) in terms of reforming a triumphant, universal Church, not one of several, without accepting that the only triumphant, universal Church Safehold would ever see again is Clyntahn's baby - a bloody, terror-driven monster. I don't think that failure to understand is a matter of lack of imagination or insight (it's that for Trynair or Magwair) or a failure of scruple - it's a matter of his principles and faith, and the huge difficulty of swallowing how much work he has been doing, in service of that faith, helping Safehold move in the wrong direction - again.

I have hopes for the man, but it's going to take a lot more changing of his mind and circumstances before they can bear powerful reformist (or revolutionary) fruit.
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Re: HQ Snippet #21 3-27-15
Post by Randomiser   » Fri Apr 03, 2015 8:17 am

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What says Duchairn would be a determining influence in the policy of a post Clyntahn CoGA? Let's assume he manages to neutralise the influence of the Inquisition in Zion (otherwise he is dead meat, anyway.) What happens next? We all know how Clyntahn keeps the vicarate in line. How is Duchairn going to keep the vicarate in line? Does anyone believe that crowd of corrupt, frightened political animals is not going to push back hard on those who have been dominating and terrifying them once the threat is taken away?
Or is the Temple Guard going to conduct it's own purge of the Vicarate? And what will that do to the moral authority of the Church?

I don't think the idea that Duchairn can retain power to direct the Church's policy if he manages to remove Clyntahn is anything like as inevitable as some people seem to be assuming.
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