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Safehold: Story line Speculation

This fascinating series is a combination of historical seafaring, swashbuckling adventure, and high technological science-fiction. Join us in a discussion!
Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Randomiser   » Thu May 10, 2018 5:06 pm

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I seem to remember that RFC said somewhere that the plan for Safehold was 4 books in the next segment and then 3 books to get the Gbabba.

On that kind of basis I would expect a 20 year jump then a continuous narrative dealing with the Thing under the Temple, the removal of the OBS, the Great Reveal and the subsequent religious war. So we start off with a moderately steampunky technology base then see electricity, the chemical industry, ICE's etc gradually being developed by Charis during the war. Probably the segment ends with victory in the war and a decisive majority of Safehold having adopted the Great Reveal.

We then have a humungous jump to when Grand Fleet sets out to find and gut the Gbabba for the start of the 3rd segment. There may be some info dumps along the way about religious and cultural history, but not too much science for the reasons Pbreed suggests. Probably this will be more of a straight military SF thing.

With RFC's planned reduced output, we may now get only 3 books in segment two and only one dealing with the Gbabba's comeuppance, who knows?
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Louis R   » Thu May 10, 2018 5:57 pm

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There will probably be more than one in the final segment, because unless Himself introduces a Gbaba POV into the story the only way for us to find out what they're all about is to watch the human characters find out. And I'm _almost_ certain that we will find out - Himself has teased us too many times about knowing what's going on.

Of course, it's always possible that he'll end up taking the secret into his grave...

Randomiser wrote:I seem to remember that RFC said somewhere that the plan for Safehold was 4 books in the next segment and then 3 books to get the Gbabba.

On that kind of basis I would expect a 20 year jump then a continuous narrative dealing with the Thing under the Temple, the removal of the OBS, the Great Reveal and the subsequent religious war. So we start off with a moderately steampunky technology base then see electricity, the chemical industry, ICE's etc gradually being developed by Charis during the war. Probably the segment ends with victory in the war and a decisive majority of Safehold having adopted the Great Reveal.

We then have a humungous jump to when Grand Fleet sets out to find and gut the Gbabba for the start of the 3rd segment. There may be some info dumps along the way about religious and cultural history, but not too much science for the reasons Pbreed suggests. Probably this will be more of a straight military SF thing.

With RFC's planned reduced output, we may now get only 3 books in segment two and only one dealing with the Gbabba's comeuppance, who knows?
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Randomiser   » Sat May 12, 2018 7:14 am

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Louis R wrote:There will probably be more than one in the final segment, because unless Himself introduces a Gbaba POV into the story the only way for us to find out what they're all about is to watch the human characters find out. And I'm _almost_ certain that we will find out - Himself has teased us too many times about knowing what's going on.

Of course, it's always possible that he'll end up taking the secret into his grave...



That's why I postulated one book in the final section; far better that RFC finish the series, even in short compass, than that he leave us dangling, through retirement or otherwise.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by C. O. Thompson   » Sun May 13, 2018 10:30 am

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OH Louis... I pray that you are wrong with your last remark! Yes the world will still spin on its axis but it will be a much more dull place without David and his stories...



Louis R wrote:There will probably be more than one in the final segment, because unless Himself introduces a Gbaba POV into the story the only way for us to find out what they're all about is to watch the human characters find out. And I'm _almost_ certain that we will find out - Himself has teased us too many times about knowing what's going on.

Of course, it's always possible that he'll end up taking the secret into his grave...

Randomiser wrote:I seem to remember that RFC said somewhere that the plan for Safehold was 4 books in the next segment and then 3 books to get the Gbabba.

On that kind of basis I would expect a 20 year jump then a continuous narrative dealing with the Thing under the Temple, the removal of the OBS, the Great Reveal and the subsequent religious war. So we start off with a moderately steampunky technology base then see electricity, the chemical industry, ICE's etc gradually being developed by Charis during the war. Probably the segment ends with victory in the war and a decisive majority of Safehold having adopted the Great Reveal.

We then have a humungous jump to when Grand Fleet sets out to find and gut the Gbabba for the start of the 3rd segment. There may be some info dumps along the way about religious and cultural history, but not too much science for the reasons Pbreed suggests. Probably this will be more of a straight military SF thing.

With RFC's planned reduced output, we may now get only 3 books in segment two and only one dealing with the Gbabba's comeuppance, who knows?
Just my 2 ₡ worth
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by mhicks   » Tue May 15, 2018 10:56 pm

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[/quote]
The cultural rebuilding will take 2 generations. It will take that long for the NEATs have their impact. As soon as the archangels are discredited, NEAT interfaces can be implanted in children. By the time those children hit 40, 2 generations of NEAT educated adults hit the core working ages. Even if the elder Safeholdians get prolong treatment, they cannot really contribute without the education the NEATs provide. Those folks will begin being set aside in favor of NEAT educated individuals.

Many non-NEAT educated folks will still be able to learn how to do technology well. The majority will not.

As a side effect, I doubt more democratic institutions will arise soon after The Reveal. The disparity between those with NEAT educations and those without will cause all sorts of issues. Especially when the numbers will favor non-NEAT education for decades.[/quote]

It may take only 2 generations for there to be NEATS once the truth has come forward, but you will be going against the current (like a river current) of thought process. People will want to hold tight to the religion they grew up with, even though they know it to be flawed. Family culture will be hard to resist falling back into the habits formed even with the truth screaming at them in the face. Look at how many "Flat Earthers" are coming back right now... and we have been to the moon and have satellites in space.

The first 2 generations of NEATS will be like the Mormon pioneers. Persecuted and driven from their homes until they find a place they can thrive and then ever so slowly come back from the fringe for their "weird" ways. The planet will be divided into and "Us vs. Them" mindset and there will be a hatred from the non NEAT folk.

"Puritans" will plant "Moles" in the NEAT group to destroy and sabotage the unholy machine setting back the work to get off Safehold and rebuild the fleet. But once the fleet is build it will need to be manned. To do that they will need to form many Colonies of breeders just to get the population up high enough to crew the fleet.

How do you get millions of people excited about breeding for 3 or 4 generations just to send your great great grandchildren off to a war against a foe that almost decimated you before and whose military sizes and home planet you do not know. (I could get excited about the breeding part :D but not the sending my future family of to a war I don't fully understand, knowing that I am breeding them just for that :? ) All the TF was onboard because the writing was on the wall and they had no choice. MANY will say the choice to do nothing will be best and that a fleet for only defense is needed and will fight from within to keep from fighting out in space.

Only a complete eradication of the COG and all the false crap taught and a mental restart will work.

We see how a memory sweep on the original Adams and Eves worked. The inner circle has morals that will keep them from doing it again.

It might just be easier for the people of Safehold to be abducted and form a new colony with all the TF tech at their disposal and all children getting NEATS right away and breed them for 7 or 8 generations and making sure the original parents without NEATS never teach the children about the old ways of Safehold. Moses had to walk in the desert 40 years to purge the Israelites of those with memories of Egypt so they would not turn to idolatry again, and also that their children would know only that the one true God had blessed them with MANA for their entire life. Hard to forget eating the same thing 40 straight. Hard to go back to the COG if separated from it once the truth has been with you all your life.

It will be a long, long time before Safehold will be ready for the stars. And unfortunately another 10 book series of all the mishaps between now(end of At the Sign of Triumph) and that time (20 books later).
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Wed May 16, 2018 7:36 am

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mhicks wrote:

The cultural rebuilding will take 2 generations. It will take that long for the NEATs have their impact. As soon as the archangels are discredited, NEAT interfaces can be implanted in children. By the time those children hit 40, 2 generations of NEAT educated adults hit the core working ages. Even if the elder Safeholdians get prolong treatment, they cannot really contribute without the education the NEATs provide. Those folks will begin being set aside in favor of NEAT educated individuals.

Many non-NEAT educated folks will still be able to learn how to do technology well. The majority will not.

As a side effect, I doubt more democratic institutions will arise soon after The Reveal. The disparity between those with NEAT educations and those without will cause all sorts of issues. Especially when the numbers will favor non-NEAT education for decades.[/quote]

It may take only 2 generations for there to be NEATS once the truth has come forward, but you will be going against the current (like a river current) of thought process. People will want to hold tight to the religion they grew up with, even though they know it to be flawed. Family culture will be hard to resist falling back into the habits formed even with the truth screaming at them in the face. Look at how many "Flat Earthers" are coming back right now... and we have been to the moon and have satellites in space.

The first 2 generations of NEATS will be like the Mormon pioneers. Persecuted and driven from their homes until they find a place they can thrive and then ever so slowly come back from the fringe for their "weird" ways. The planet will be divided into and "Us vs. Them" mindset and there will be a hatred from the non NEAT folk.

"Puritans" will plant "Moles" in the NEAT group to destroy and sabotage the unholy machine setting back the work to get off Safehold and rebuild the fleet. But once the fleet is build it will need to be manned. To do that they will need to form many Colonies of breeders just to get the population up high enough to crew the fleet.

How do you get millions of people excited about breeding for 3 or 4 generations just to send your great great grandchildren off to a war against a foe that almost decimated you before and whose military sizes and home planet you do not know. (I could get excited about the breeding part :D but not the sending my future family of to a war I don't fully understand, knowing that I am breeding them just for that :? ) All the TF was onboard because the writing was on the wall and they had no choice. MANY will say the choice to do nothing will be best and that a fleet for only defense is needed and will fight from within to keep from fighting out in space.

Only a complete eradication of the COG and all the false crap taught and a mental restart will work.

We see how a memory sweep on the original Adams and Eves worked. The inner circle has morals that will keep them from doing it again.

It might just be easier for the people of Safehold to be abducted and form a new colony with all the TF tech at their disposal and all children getting NEATS right away and breed them for 7 or 8 generations and making sure the original parents without NEATS never teach the children about the old ways of Safehold. Moses had to walk in the desert 40 years to purge the Israelites of those with memories of Egypt so they would not turn to idolatry again, and also that their children would know only that the one true God had blessed them with MANA for their entire life. Hard to forget eating the same thing 40 straight. Hard to go back to the COG if separated from it once the truth has been with you all your life.

It will be a long, long time before Safehold will be ready for the stars. And unfortunately another 10 book series of all the mishaps between now(end of At the Sign of Triumph) and that time (20 books later).[/quote]

Thanks, mhicks, for an eloquent post. I've been trying to say the same thing, but you've done it better.

Don

-
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by mhicks   » Wed May 16, 2018 3:28 pm

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Thank you n7axw, those are kind words. I was trying to respond with a quote from PeterZ but did the quote thing wrong. the top part is a repeat from his post on the first page. :oops:
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by Randomiser   » Fri May 18, 2018 4:19 am

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@Mhicks (Read long post above)

I think you are being terribly pessimistic about conditions after the reveal, at least a generation or so after. Assuming the inner circle carry most of Imperial Charis with them and manage to decisively win the reveal war, they will strongly influence the culture that develops afterwards and government and Church will stamp on any Luddite terrorism very hard.

New atheists won't dispute the reveal, COC will strongly support it, rump COGA supporters will be falling behind technologically and economically every day, lots of them will switch over. (Women will absolutely want washing machines, electric irons, stoves, central heating, hoovers, electric light, careers for their kids etc etc .. however bull-headed some of their men may be) Flat earthers are only resurgent because of Postmodernism - Safehold really isn't fertile ground for the "all truth is relative" line, so 'Reveal deniers' neighbour's will squelch them with facts pretty quick.

You are right of course that it will take generations to build the population and industrial base to go for the Gbabba. People won't breed for the War effort, they will breed to expand into the newly terraformed parts of Safehold where they get free land and to occupy the space habitats, then the new colonies. Pre-mechanisation farmers, much of Safehold are used to having the biggest families they can support, because of infant mortality and the need to get help on the farm. Infant mortality is going to drop and life expectancy will rocket, so the population is going up from that for the first while. The space habitats and colonies are going to be CoGA-free zones, if not out of policy on who gets to live there, then out of CoGA supporters' refusal to blasphemously abandon the planet God gave them to live on.

How are we going to motivate the population for the war against the Gbabba? Fear firstly, then self=preservation, then revenge for the genocide. But it may well not take in every colony or situation, requiring even more time to get a big enough fleet and effort together.

ON NEATs the IOC government, the COC and any atheists are going to be pushing them. It will be important not to introduce them 'too early', defined as before they can be offered free to every kid whose parents want them, at least in a particular country. It will take a little while to build up the necessary tech and industrial base to mass produce them and train doctors to insert them, or supervise the machines doing so. That also brings us back to the religious dispute on the forum about whether they can only be inserted in babies. or whether older kids/adults can also benefit, which I don't think was ever definitively answered. Obviously if adults can get them the process will take off faster.

RFC never intended to write scores of books on Safehold, so I can only assume the idea was always that there would be be a big gap or a very summary book at some point. Indeed, I seem to remember the initial plan was to write one book on each human generation involved, with Merlin tying them all together, but RFC (and maybe the readers) got too into the characters once he started to write. Now, given his awareness of his own mortality and the need to slow down a bit, I'm sure ... well pretty sure ... well hopeful, at least, that we are going to see the story completed in a feasibly small number of books.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by mhicks   » Fri May 18, 2018 2:18 pm

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Randomiser wrote:@Mhicks (Read long post above)

I think you are being terribly pessimistic about conditions after the reveal, at least a generation or so after. Assuming the inner circle carry most of Imperial Charis with them and manage to decisively win the reveal war, they will strongly influence the culture that develops afterwards and government and Church will stamp on any Luddite terrorism very hard.

New atheists won't dispute the reveal, COC will strongly support it, rump COGA supporters will be falling behind technologically and economically every day, lots of them will switch over. (Women will absolutely want washing machines, electric irons, stoves, central heating, hoovers, electric light, careers for their kids etc etc .. however bull-headed some of their men may be) Flat earthers are only resurgent because of Postmodernism - Safehold really isn't fertile ground for the "all truth is relative" line, so 'Reveal deniers' neighbour's will squelch them with facts pretty quick.

You are right of course that it will take generations to build the population and industrial base to go for the Gbabba. People won't breed for the War effort, they will breed to expand into the newly terraformed parts of Safehold where they get free land and to occupy the space habitats, then the new colonies. Pre-mechanisation farmers, much of Safehold are used to having the biggest families they can support, because of infant mortality and the need to get help on the farm. Infant mortality is going to drop and life expectancy will rocket, so the population is going up from that for the first while. The space habitats and colonies are going to be CoGA-free zones, if not out of policy on who gets to live there, then out of CoGA supporters' refusal to blasphemously abandon the planet God gave them to live on.

How are we going to motivate the population for the war against the Gbabba? Fear firstly, then self=preservation, then revenge for the genocide. But it may well not take in every colony or situation, requiring even more time to get a big enough fleet and effort together.

ON NEATs the IOC government, the COC and any atheists are going to be pushing them. It will be important not to introduce them 'too early', defined as before they can be offered free to every kid whose parents want them, at least in a particular country. It will take a little while to build up the necessary tech and industrial base to mass produce them and train doctors to insert them, or supervise the machines doing so. That also brings us back to the religious dispute on the forum about whether they can only be inserted in babies. or whether older kids/adults can also benefit, which I don't think was ever definitively answered. Obviously if adults can get them the process will take off faster.

RFC never intended to write scores of books on Safehold, so I can only assume the idea was always that there would be be a big gap or a very summary book at some point. Indeed, I seem to remember the initial plan was to write one book on each human generation involved, with Merlin tying them all together, but RFC (and maybe the readers) got too into the characters once he started to write. Now, given his awareness of his own mortality and the need to slow down a bit, I'm sure ... well pretty sure ... well hopeful, at least, that we are going to see the story completed in a feasibly small number of books.


In this case I am looking at the glass as only three quarter empty. Humans are totally unpredictable and unreasonable. As for the COGA stopping out any Luddite terrorism is far fetched. The COGA will have no power or authority at this point. The change it will take the people to move away from the healers towards doctors alone is going to be an inner struggle for each person.
Voice inside head
-"Healers have worked for years..."
-"Doctors have new equipment and abilities but they are evil, but not evil..."

The whole planet is going to be like a pubescent teen trying to figure out what is "cool" and what they should do but feel they can't trust their parents (COGA, or government) and wanting to be with the cool kids (EOC) but at the same time hating the cool kids and not willing to put in the time to do the homework to understand what the teachers (TF history) are teaching because in reality the grades they get will determine the rest of their life (Survival against the GABA or other aliens).

The whole world "KNOWS" the angels made the planet. that Langhorn rules supreme when God I not around. The reveal is going to turn that on their heads and there will be rejection of it. As a life long alcoholic getting a liver transplant, the body rejects it. The body will die without the new liver but the damage has been going on for so long and so deep that the body can't handle the good stuff when it gets it. Safehold will reject the truth even when it is staring them right in the face.

There will be a huge civil war like struggle within each family about the new information being brought in. It will get ugly before it gets nice, and the ugly has potential to last centuries. Look at the hatred between Jews and Muslims. They once came from the same family, now they can't live knowing the other is still alive and the only good "fill in the blank" is a dead "fill in the blank"

Those who embrace the truth will do so for two reasons. One because it is the truth they have been searching for and they will help move things along. The other is to get gain. With the truth I will make money, have power and prestige. use it to control those who don't fully understand it. There will be a time of lawless ness among the masses because they will not give power over on a large scale after what the COGA did to the world.

Also until the people see what the GABA have done with their own eyes, there will not be revenge in their hearts and a desire to die for the war we will rage. The people of Safehold have no clue about the war and when the truth is reveled it will still be to hard for them to digest that they may wish to pull the blankets over their heads and think that by doing so the monster (GABA) will go away (The Far Side comic). It will be like any government now, only a low percent of the population will join the military to fight the war. you will not be able to force them into it unless the GABA are on the front door again, and will mean that some one invited them to Safehold.

Sorry for the long post, I get a bit long winded and have such colorful analogies to go with it.
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Re: Safehold: Story line Speculation
Post by n7axw   » Fri May 18, 2018 10:50 pm

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I wonder if we might be guilty of some oversimplification here. Think of our situation here on earth. At this moment the human race runs the entire range from being scientifically advanced to almost primitive, from being progressive and future oriented in outlook to being reactionary.

There is no reason to believe that humanity on Safehold would be different. Imagine Charis, Siddarmark and perhaps Dohlar and Silkiah emerging as progressive hubs with North Harchong, Desnair and the Temple Lands being more resistive to change, centers of reaction, if you will. This could drag out for generations with the wealth and culture gap widening as people harden into their positions.

Merlin doesn't have to convince the whole planet of his point of view to meet his goal of preparing Safehold for the impact of the scientific revolution. All of Safehold will be impacted, of course. But to throw off the proscriptions, he has to persuade a large enough body of people in the more progressive areas that the proscriptions have to go to create a sufficient mass of opinion to make it so. The reactionaries may object, but the tech advantages of the progressive side will be such that their objections will be futile. That doesn't mean that the reactionaries won't try to roll back the clock. In fact, the less relavant they are the more desperate they will become. So the process will not be sweetness and light. In fact it could be quite bloody.

Then comes electricity, the growth of a scientific community and sufficient industrialization to support a return to space.

It is not hard at all to visualize this state of affairs continuing even as Safehold sends out its first expeditions out to colonize neighboring systems in space. In fact it could turn out that it would be the colonies who bear the brunt of industrialization and the scientific advance needed to take the war to the Gbaba.

I have no idea where David is going to take his story, of course. But I do find the model outlined above interesting and perhaps more realistic about what we know of human nature than the notion of a monolithic, united Safehold that we have tended to assume here on the forum.

Don

P.S.I expect four more books for a total of 12 with some significant time gaps with the interims briefly described as back story.

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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