Official HFQ Snippet #10

Undercover Fat Kid wrote:I had read that due to the extreme cold the powder in the .30 carbine rounds wasn't burning properly, catastrophically reducing muzzle velocity, to the tune of there were reports that some people claimed to be able to see their rounds in flight. Given the fact that all of the charisian rifles have power to spare,I don't expect that to be a problem.

It would be interesting if Christian soldiers survive due to AoG bullets failing to penetrate their child weather gear.

Another thing to wonder about: the latest Mahndrayn rifle can be easily reloaded even with medium gloves (as long as the glove will fit in the trigger guard), but the design for the AoG St. Sylman's rifles seems to require more precision to load, i.e. only very thin or no gloves can be used. Given the current temperatures, it seems to me that after only a few minutes, the AoG troops will being to experience frostbite on their hands unless the warmth of the rifle is a lot more than I would expect.

-- Bob G

GCM wrote:

We have two quotes from BGV that appear to be at odds. He talks about reaching Guarnak and also about slamming the door shut behind Wyrshym.

Oh, pshaw! I've just discovered that I'm able to predict the past with better than 50% acuity. Namely, I reread relevant sections of Like a Mighty Army and found that Baron Green Valley expects to roll over forces in the Northland Gap pretty easily, and to be able to take St. Zhana and Fairkyn. He expects to threaten the Ohlarn Gap and make Wyrsham worry as much about his northern flank as he does about his southern one.

The discussion at this juncture turns on whether Baron Green Valley will turn South towards Guarnak or continue straight towards Five Forks. "Engineering his own Stalingrad" seems to indicate Guarnak, but it could also apply to Five Forks.


Curious. Why does Wyrsham worry about his Southern flank? True, the Sylmahn Gap is (roughly) South of him, but I can't imagine calling that a flank. It's the front. Following the map back I find The Green Cove Trace, but that's unlikely. The next vulnerable spot in in Westmarch, so that means Duke Eastshare and the Daivyn. Two routes suggest themselves, either by water up the North Daivyn, the Sair-Selyk canal, the Sair River, and Lake Maisn (where they have to worry about Church-destroyed locks), or by road through Aivahnstyn, Marylys, Talmar, Waymeet, and then the Hildermoss River.

So, if the Hildermoss River is his southern flank then it makes sense to suspect that Five Forks is his northern one. octavian30 has an excellent point about supply through Ranshair. Moreover, that makes Baron Green Valley's desire for Fairkyn take on a new import, rather than an afterthought as I had said earlier. Hmmm, it may be Baron Green Valley placing a blocking force in Ohlarn Gap, rather than Wyrsham.

~Tonto

lyonheart wrote:Hi Dwileye13, Ericth and Guys;

SNIP

Feel free to disagree.

L

dwileye13 wrote:
There are few reasons to try to advance very far. Protecting the access to Eastern Siddermark and Glacierheart is the key, Northland Gap and Sylman Gap are the places in need of a cork.

I can't disagree and agree in most instances, but I think the placement of these men is a question. They left from Allyntyn and have traveled 3 fivedays. I put an average of 100 miles per fiveday with a 1/2 day rest per. (just under 2.5 actual and about 2 on average. Not a force march - not a stroll. If it is 400 miles from Allyntyn to St. Zhana they have passed the gap and are closing on St Zhana. Which is (IMO) the Winter Quarters of the Advance Forces sent to secure the Gap.

Those force are probably sitting in what warm huts and confiscated houses waiting for the Winter to wind down to go patrol the Gap because everyone knows that no one can move an army in the northern winter. BGV will roll over them like a roller over pizza dough. His advance Dragoons should have knocked out the semiphores so for a while the only thing known by Wyrshym will be a loss of communications.

RFC will whip up some severe storms to mask the semiphores and BGV will barely slow down. Fairkyn was taken by the Riverboats and several hundred ICA troops. BGV could just bypass and head straight for Ohlarhn. That could be the 1st time Wyrshym knows BGV is coming.

isaac_newton wrote:
snip

Again, BGV stated IN LAMA that he might get to Guarnak if the was very lucky and the weather held. So it really seems to me that Guarnak is the target of his winter campaign and that these other places are not on his [immediate] horizon - for the logistical/strategic reasons people have mentioned elsewhere.

BTW does anyone have an idea of how far the snow shoe equipped troops might go on a good day on reasonable terrain? what sort of speed in mph could be sustained?

The troops aren't carrying their packs but each twelve man squad is pulling them on sleds along with their arctic tent. Infantry lead the way and the pack beasts follow after. I imagine they rotate who breaks the trail to keep the pace as high as possible. As in all marches the baggage train sets the pace. Assuming roughly 2 months before Guarnak's latitude thaws, BGV estimates he can manage 16-17 miles per day.

Ohlahrn is ~400 miles North of Guarnak.
Northland Gap and Five Forks are about 200 miles North
Cat-Lizard Lake and Lake City are about 750 miles North of Guarnak.

On Earth 10 degrees of latitude is about 690 miles. That would be about the difference between Indianapolis or Denver to Winnipeg or Calgary. I've lived in both Indianapolis and Denver and the winters are mild. Duluth is only 7-8 degrees North of Indianapolis but the weather is much worse. Spring is about 3-4 weeks later in coming.

IIRC, Safehold is slightly smaller than earth but denser. That means fewer miles per degree of latitude. Also, I recall mention that the orbital tilt is worse on Safehold. That led to colder weather in winter than Earth at the same latitudes.

All this suggests that BGV can travel farther on a Northern route than a Southern one. Assuming an extra month of roads that aren't soup, BGV can travel approximately 1,500 miles. This assumes he can get supplies from the towns he takes along the way.

PeterZ wrote:SNIP Assuming roughly 2 months before Guarnak's latitude thaws, BGV estimates he can manage 16-17 miles per day.

Ohlahrn is ~400 miles North of Guarnak.
Northland Gap and Five Forks are about 200 miles North
Cat-Lizard Lake and Lake City are about 750 miles North of Guarnak.

On Earth 10 degrees of latitude is about 690 miles. That would be about the difference between Indianapolis or Denver to Winnipeg or Calgary. I've lived in both Indianapolis and Denver and the winters are mild. Duluth is only 7-8 degrees North of Indianapolis but the weather is much worse. Spring is about 3-4 weeks later in coming.

SNIP

All this suggests that BGV can travel farther on a Northern route than a Southern one. Assuming an extra month of roads that aren't soup, BGV can travel approximately 1,500 miles. This assumes he can get supplies from the towns he takes along the way.

hmmm - Interesting - thanks for that.

BTW I've sort of lost the plot on roughly 'when' we are and when the thaw is expected.

I just don't have any experience on this, but marching on snow for 1500 miles with fierce fighting expected along the way, for 100 days pretty continuous, does seem to be a big ask. Has there been anything compariable back here on Earth or is this quite reasonable for trained foot soldiers?

Tonto Silerheels wrote:GCM wrote:

We have two quotes from BGV that appear to be at odds. He talks about reaching Guarnak and also about slamming the door shut behind Wyrshym.

Oh, pshaw! I've just discovered that I'm able to predict the past with better than 50% acuity. Namely, I reread relevant sections of Like a Mighty Army and found that Baron Green Valley expects to roll over forces in the Northland Gap pretty easily, and to be able to take St. Zhana and Fairkyn. He expects to threaten the Ohlarn Gap and make Wyrsham worry as much about his northern flank as he does about his southern one.

The discussion at this juncture turns on whether Baron Green Valley will turn South towards Guarnak or continue straight towards Five Forks. "Engineering his own Stalingrad" seems to indicate Guarnak, but it could also apply to Five Forks.


Curious. Why does Wyrsham worry about his Southern flank? True, the Sylmahn Gap is (roughly) South of him, but I can't imagine calling that a flank. It's the front. Following the map back I find The Green Cove Trace, but that's unlikely. The next vulnerable spot in in Westmarch, so that means Duke Eastshare and the Daivyn. Two routes suggest themselves, either by water up the North Daivyn, the Sair-Selyk canal, the Sair River, and Lake Maisn (where they have to worry about Church-destroyed locks), or by road through Aivahnstyn, Marylys, Talmar, Waymeet, and then the Hildermoss River.

So, if the Hildermoss River is his southern flank then it makes sense to suspect that Five Forks is his northern one. octavian30 has an excellent point about supply through Ranshair. Moreover, that makes Baron Green Valley's desire for Fairkyn take on a new import, rather than an afterthought as I had said earlier. Hmmm, it may be Baron Green Valley placing a blocking force in Ohlarn Gap, rather than Wyrsham.

~Tonto

Ok then, BGV is targeting Five Forks as an option not further North and West. That begs the question of why Summyrs can't reach Five Forks quicker. Either BGV has all the artic capabilities or Summyrs is being ignored in the story until he does move North.

If Summyrs does have Artic gear enough to equip a force sufficient to head North, he can reach Lake City more quickly that BGV. If he doesn't have enough arctic gear or pack animals, he can't begin moving North until after the canals thaw.

Does it make sense to push Summyrs all the way to Lake City if possible before Spring? Would the advantages of keeping the GHoGatA in the Border Kingdoms out weigh the risks of pushing that far forward?

isaac_newton wrote:
BTW does anyone have an idea of how far the snow shoe equipped troops might go on a good day on reasonable terrain? what sort of speed in mph could be sustained?

"Ski marches are the most practical form of movement during winter. In difficult terrain with a moderately deep snow cover, the Germans found that small units should not exceed two to two and one-half miles per hour, and larger units about one and one-half miles per hour. Foot troops should move about one-half mile per hour, or about one-third mile per hour when carrying loads of evacuating casualties. Unreasonable speed on skis or on foot stimulates perspiration and induces chills and frostbite."

Source: Effects of Climate on Combat Section III, Ski and Dismounted Movement

Isn’t it a possibility that BGV ignores St. Zhane and turns directly towards Guarnak after passing the Northland Gap. In winter travelling over a thick pack of snow roads are less important. And it cuts a few hundred miles travelling distance.
After taking Guarnak he can head south to the Sylman Gap. The blocking force will have the choice between surrender and destruction. Meanwhile the RSA can send its new troops and supplies up the Sylman Gap. To poor into the northern provinces ones the cork at Wyvern Lake is removed.

And BGV’s other troops can mop up the garrisons along the road from St. Zahne to Five Forks when they follow in the spring.

If the Go4’s Army of the Sylman escapes they can become an experienced cadre of non-coms for the Harchongese horde. And that would be a nightmare scenario.

Just my 2 cents. (Sorry, I seem a bit broke )

Captain Igloo wrote:

isaac_newton wrote:
BTW does anyone have an idea of how far the snow shoe equipped troops might go on a good day on reasonable terrain? what sort of speed in mph could be sustained?

"Ski marches are the most practical form of movement during winter. In difficult terrain with a moderately deep snow cover, the Germans found that small units should not exceed two to two and one-half miles per hour, and larger units about one and one-half miles per hour. Foot troops should move about one-half mile per hour, or about one-third mile per hour when carrying loads of evacuating casualties. Unreasonable speed on skis or on foot stimulates perspiration and induces chills and frostbite."

Source: Effects of Climate on Combat Section III, Ski and Dismounted Movement

Thanks for that nice to have some actual figures to think about!

Tanstaafl wrote:Isn’t it a possibility that BGV ignores St. Zhane and turns directly towards Guarnak after passing the Northland Gap. In winter travelling over a thick pack of snow roads are less important. And it cuts a few hundred miles travelling distance.
After taking Guarnak he can head south to the Sylman Gap. The blocking force will have the choice between surrender and destruction. Meanwhile the RSA can send its new troops and supplies up the Sylman Gap. To poor into the northern provinces ones the cork at Wyvern Lake is removed.

And BGV’s other troops can mop up the garrisons along the road from St. Zahne to Five Forks when they follow in the spring.

If the Go4’s Army of the Sylman escapes they can become an experienced cadre of non-coms for the Harchongese horde. And that would be a nightmare scenario.

Just my 2 cents. (Sorry, I seem a bit broke )

St Zahns seems to be pretty much west of the center of the northland gap, so I'm not sure that going straight to Guarnak is going to cut several hundred miles off, especially if the apparent gap between the Ish Ash & Kalgaren mountains is rough terrain!

my two pennies - slightly less broke :=)