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Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD

"Hell's Gate" and "Hell Hath No Fury", by David, Linda Evans, and Joelle Presby, take the clash of science and magic to a whole new dimension...join us in a friendly discussion of this engrossing series!
Re: Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by PeterZ   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:34 pm

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The assumption in a prolonged war is that both sides see the other as an existential threat. That means they believe not waging war, regardless of cost, is detrimental to their societies. Of course, it isn't a good thing. War is hell.

n7axw wrote:Given the length of distance from home each side's more populated worlds are from the other side, there is no way that either side could sustain armies in the millions that far away from their major supply bases. The tech required for the logistics simply is not there.

About the only way either side could work its way into its enemy's homeland would be to conquer, occupy successive universes and build industrial capacity capable of supporting the military needed for the next step, working toward the objective.

That would take generations and the militarization of society that would happen as a result of such an effort would not be a good thing.

Don

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Re: Arcana Reenforcements: RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by Castenea   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:20 pm

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Howard T. Map-addict wrote:IIRC nothing has been mentioned about Arcanan reenforcements.
Whyever not?

The Ternath Fifth Corps was ordered to the Front within three
days after news was received on Sharona. Other units, from
other countries, have also been moved.

By the time Jasak's party reaches Portalis, Union officials
have had the news for at least two weeks, maybe a month.
The book lasts four more months (January-April).
I overlooked any mention of *anyone* being sent forward from
Portalis, Arcana, New Arcana, or any bases along the way.
No senior officers to take over command at the front,
superceding mul Gurthak and Harshu.
No more soldiers, not a division, not a battalion or platoon.
No one.

Note that Division-Captain chan Geraith superceded chan
Skithrik and Markan as soon as he reached Traisum. It was he
who made the decision to exchange the TTE crew for the Fort
Salby prisoners. In turn he is superceded by his Corps-Captain
before the Turning Movement is completed.
Their opponents are still 2000 mul Gurthak & 2000 Harshu!

Gurthak should have been removed for Insufficient Reporting,
but he should already have been superceded by a 5,000,
a Ten Thousand, and even a Twenty Thousand - or higher.
Automatically! Standard Military Proceedure.

What is the High Commanderie doing, besides Courts of Inquiry?

HTM

I find the lack of any mention of Arcanan reinforcements to be improbable also. Even if you are not sending someone who outranks Gurthak and Harshu, where are the forces to backfill the holes the concentration of forces and then the offensive left in their Order of battle and areas of responsibility.

In any historical case I can think of that would be comparable, reinforcements were a major factor in who won the campaign.
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Re: Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:09 pm

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I wanted to come back and defend the estimate of a 10 million man Sharanon Army invading Arcana. If a Sharonan invasion of Arcana happens at all I think it will be under one of two scenarios.

1) A gate opens that connects Arcana to Sharona (or something very close to that). In this case the supply problems that everyone is worried about are much less significant. The armies will be that large or larger. The question is if they will be able to engage each other at full strength or will they be jammed up at a portal and limited to a very narrow front. Note, in the latter case the armies are still that large, they just can't get at each other.

2) Sharona does exactly what Don said. They work forward systematically building up industry as they go to support the offensive. This means that Sharona is conducting a total war against Arcana for decades (minimum). Our historical examples of nations around Sharona's tech level conducting total war have them putting nearly 10% of their population under arms (although not for that long). That makes Sharona's army one billion strong. Ten million is 1% of that. I don't have the least bit of trouble believing that for the final push to conquer Arcana and win the war Sharona would deploy that portion of their strength. If anything, under this scenario I suspect ten million is low!

And for the record, I think a peaceful solution in the next few years is much less likely then Don does, but I absolutely agree with him that it would be for the best if it happened. I just have difficulty imagining how it could.

Nicholas
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Re: Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:15 pm

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Jonathan_S wrote:The odd thing is this new approach seems to imply that at least some kinds of crystal spells shut down when crossing a portal; specifically the levitation spells. But we didn't hear about issues with the hover wagons when the mixed group with those was moving towards Hell's Gate. You'd think they'd mention it if the wagons crashed to the ground and had to be re-floated each gate.

And dragons can pull floating transport pods. There's no indication those levitation spells need to be restarted each gate crossing. And even if a minorly gifted pilot can do that having the full weight of the pod briefly yank down on the dragon each gate seems, shall we say, impractical.

And we know gryphon control spells, and recon crystal spell, both work father crossing a portal because they've been running the odd recon gryphon through the gate and over to the Fort Salbey area. There are no gifted around to reset those after the gryphons fly through the gate.

And those are just active spells. PCs and accumulators don't appear to lose charge when crossing a portal.


I could see some classes of spells shutting down. But even if a set of slider cars lost propulsion as it crossed a portal it would have momentum and could get pushed be the cars still moving towards the portal. Worst case there you might have to have a gifted conductor kick the drive back on once the whole chain of slider crosses through.
But having to stop and crossroad people and supplies seems insane and not very compatible with the other instances I mentioned of spells working after crossing a portal.

(And if it were true they'd have figured out mechanical means to roll or push a slider through decades ago. Even greased wood or metal runners for the car to land on and horses with ropes to drag the car through would be vastly superior in efficiency to unloading and hand carrying the cargo across)


I agree with every question you are raising here. They are good ones and I don't see any obvious answers. One more question that I would like to add is, "why is Arcana looking for a mechanical way to move sliders across portals?"

They have genetically engineered dragons! I can think of a number of creatures that with a lot fewer modifications then it took to make dragons would be happy to let a 60 ton slider land on their back and then carry it across the portal. That seems far more like Arcanans then fiddling with mechanicals.

Nicholas
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Re: protecting Andrin from Busar husband re: RTH - SPOILER T
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:20 pm

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Howard T. Map-addict wrote:We have speculated whether an Empress Andrin,
or a Heir Apparent Andrin, would have Guards able
to protect her from a Busar husband.

Textev from page 111:
"Id rather not need to have Imperial Guardsman defend
you from your own consort, Your Highness," Dulan added.

I conclude that, although they wouldn't like to need to,
they could attempt it, with some hope of success.

But the question is moot.

HTM


Thank you for bringing that up and I agree both that that is what we should conclude from that text and that the question is moot.

Nicholas
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Re: Arcana Reenforcements: RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by brnicholas   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:26 pm

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Castenea wrote:I find the lack of any mention of Arcanan reinforcements to be improbable also. Even if you are not sending someone who outranks Gurthak and Harshu, where are the forces to backfill the holes the concentration of forces and then the offensive left in their Order of battle and areas of responsibility.

In any historical case I can think of that would be comparable, reinforcements were a major factor in who won the campaign.


I suspect two causes for the lack of mention.

1) DW has a secret and he doesn't want to spoil it for us.

2) Without some type of political consensus about what to do the authorities are limited to peacetime procedures. That means they are shuffling priorities and sending more people out that way but it is going through normal channels and so isn't worth mentioning.

Nicholas
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Re: Arcana Reenforcements: RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by phillies   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 8:47 pm

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It may also be..."Union"...that the ground forces have been cut down even farther than the air force, so the folks sent forward are a significant part of everything that is "army" rather than "state militia". The Commander of 20,000 might not have 20,000 bodies on call. After all, suppose that the United States was the only inhabited place in the world, and everything beyond our borders was woodland. (foreign readers may assume this is the fate of their country). How large an army would we have? Why?

brnicholas wrote:
Castenea wrote:I find the lack of any mention of Arcanan reinforcements to be improbable also. Even if you are not sending someone who outranks Gurthak and Harshu, where are the forces to backfill the holes the concentration of forces and then the offensive left in their Order of battle and areas of responsibility.

In any historical case I can think of that would be comparable, reinforcements were a major factor in who won the campaign.


I suspect two causes for the lack of mention.

1) DW has a secret and he doesn't want to spoil it for us.

2) Without some type of political consensus about what to do the authorities are limited to peacetime procedures. That means they are shuffling priorities and sending more people out that way but it is going through normal channels and so isn't worth mentioning.

Nicholas
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Re: Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by Astelon   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:54 pm

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From what I recall the AEF is made up of everything that mul Gurthak could gather from his own command, and Harshu expected reinforcements to arrive. This argues that additional manpower is available. And even if all you had left to send was militia you would send it if you thought it was necessary.

It appears that the Commandery has not decided to send any officer or reinforcements. This could be because of the lack of information and disinformation employed by mul Gurthak.
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Re: Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by n7axw   » Wed Mar 23, 2016 10:51 pm

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brnicholas wrote:I wanted to come back and defend the estimate of a 10 million man Sharanon Army invading Arcana. If a Sharonan invasion of Arcana happens at all I think it will be under one of two scenarios.

1) A gate opens that connects Arcana to Sharona (or something very close to that). In this case the supply problems that everyone is worried about are much less significant. The armies will be that large or larger. The question is if they will be able to engage each other at full strength or will they be jammed up at a portal and limited to a very narrow front. Note, in the latter case the armies are still that large, they just can't get at each other.

2) Sharona does exactly what Don said. They work forward systematically building up industry as they go to support the offensive. This means that Sharona is conducting a total war against Arcana for decades (minimum). Our historical examples of nations around Sharona's tech level conducting total war have them putting nearly 10% of their population under arms (although not for that long). That makes Sharona's army one billion strong. Ten million is 1% of that. I don't have the least bit of trouble believing that for the final push to conquer Arcana and win the war Sharona would deploy that portion of their strength. If anything, under this scenario I suspect ten million is low!

And for the record, I think a peaceful solution in the next few years is much less likely then Don does, but I absolutely agree with him that it would be for the best if it happened. I just have difficulty imagining how it could.

Nicholas


If RFC wants to write a story of peacemaking between Sharona and Arcana, he has planted the seeds for the story line to go in that direction. Neither side really wanted the war to start with the exception of the rogue element within the Arcanan military. Should Sharona come to understand that the government in Portalus is different than the Arcanans they have been dealing with and that they would treat with Sharona in good faith, I think Sharona would probably be willing to take the opportunity.

This is where the theme with Velvelig and his mixed party of Arcanans and Sharonians comes in. Sharona will even have the diplomat who helped mul Gurthak set up the mess in custody. This could turn out a turning point in the plot if our authors go in that direction.

Don


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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Reflecting Upon RTH -- SPOILER THREAD
Post by brnicholas   » Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:03 am

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n7axw wrote:
If RFC wants to write a story of peacemaking between Sharona and Arcana, he has planted the seeds for the story line to go in that direction. Neither side really wanted the war to start with the exception of the rogue element within the Arcanan military. Should Sharona come to understand that the government in Portalus is different than the Arcanans they have been dealing with and that they would treat with Sharona in good faith, I think Sharona would probably be willing to take the opportunity.

This is where the theme with Velvelig and his mixed party of Arcanans and Sharonians comes in. Sharona will even have the diplomat who helped mul Gurthak set up the mess in custody. This could turn out a turning point in the plot if our authors go in that direction.

Don


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True, but he has also planted lots of statements about public anger constraining politicians to do things they don't want to do. I suspect that you are not giving those statements enough weight. I'll toss a couple of quotes below as examples of what I am talking about.

Nicholas

HG CH17 100 Jasek to 500 Klian wrote:Second, and maybe even more important, I'm afraid that if any additional shots are fired, they'll cinch the certainty of open warfare. I'm talking politics, not military protocol, Sir. We need a team of trained ambassadors, and it's going to take time to bring them down the chain. Our next meeting with these people has to be peaceful, Sir, or we will be looking at war. A long, potentially disastrous, nasty war.


HG CH30 Andrin to Herself wrote:No single event in the entire history of Sharona had ever hit home like this one. Andrin knew that it worried her father deeply. Zindel chan Calirath was no more immune to outrage and fury than anyone else, but he was Emperor of Ternathia. He had to think beyond the outrage, beyond the madness of the moment, and the blast furnace anger and hatred—and fear—sweeping through his home universe threatened to severely limit his own options and choices.


HHNF CH34 Zindel to Kinlafia wrote:"They've truly done it this time," he said harshly. "First, Shaylar's murder. Now this . . . this treachery and the murder of my son. The heir to the throne. The whole of Sharona is going to explode in fury. Any possible hope we ever had for stopping this insanity is gone forever. Whether we're ready for it or not, whether we want it or not, we're in a fight for our very survival"
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