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Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak

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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:30 pm

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Mil-tech bard wrote:This is something RFC said earlier that bears on this thread.


12 The decision to send Shaylar and Jathmar back to New Arcana rather than returning them to Sharona was not made by Jasak Olderhan. He understood the military reasons for regarding them as priceless intelligence assets, and he agreed with that assessment. However, he also knew from the very beginning what the decision of his superiors would be and that there was no way that he could possibly change that decision. By naming Shaylar and Jathmar his shardonai, however, he made it completely clear that the two of them were under the protection of his family and that they would not — could not — be abused, subjected to torture, separated, etc. Indeed, it is Jasak's hope and belief that eventually Shaylar and Jathmar will be returned to Sharona. Moreover, he does not know that the Sharonians have been told that Shaylar and Jathmar are dead. He has, in fact, no reason to even contemplate that possibility, which — as several people have pointed out (and I happen to agree) — would have been an incredibly stupid act by anyone who hoped to avoid further hostilities.



Jasak does not know that Mul Gurthak had his pet diplomats tell the Sharonans that Shaylar and Jathmar are dead.

This is something that spotlights Mul Gurthak role in events in a way Andarans and Rasanarans are going to revert to some very old pre-Arcanian Union racial stereotypes over.

Particularly with the lady Ransanaran mage deploying combat magic's to protect Shaylar and Jathmar from Mul Gurthak's creatures like Commander of 500 Neshok on the way back to Arcania.

I file all of the above under "Mul Gurthak is not as smart a secret plotter as he thinks he is ".


MTB,

Mul Gurthak wanted further hostilities. He needed them or Jasak and by extension Andara as a whole could not be tarnished thoroughly enough. If he envisioned Andaran elements causing the hostilities and then later proving incapable of defeating these barbarians, what use are they to the Union? This is especially true if they are as atrocity prone as the mundane barbarians they could not defeat?

Once the AEF is discredited and defeated by the Sharonans, a mul Gurthak led force can both be more successful and be more ethical in the chastisement of these unarcane heathen. Prisoner exchanges negotiated by mul Gurthak will likely allow the Sharonans to punish those witnesses as they see fit.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Mil-tech bard   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 2:42 pm

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Regards this --

MTB,

Mul Gurthak wanted further hostilities. He needed them or Jasak and by extension Andara as a whole could not be tarnished thoroughly enough. If he envisioned Andaran elements causing the hostilities and then later proving incapable of defeating these barbarians, what use are they to the Union? This is especially true if they are as atrocity prone as the mundane barbarians they could not defeat?

Once the AEF is discredited and defeated by the Sharonans, a mul Gurthak led force can both be more successful and be more ethical in the chastisement of these unarcane heathen. Prisoner exchanges negotiated by mul Gurthak will likely allow the Sharonans to punish those witnesses as they see fit.


I disagree.

Mul Gurthak wanted further hostilities for which the Andaran's could be blamed and in particular Jasak.

Gadrial and Jasak's Chief Sword are both witnesses to events at Fallen Timbers and the 2nd battle at Hells Gate in the case of the Chief Sword.

Mul Gurthak does not control them nor can he use his heart attack spells on them.

As a Ransanaran Mage, Gadrial is going to have a lot more impact on Rananaran public opinion in Arcania than any 'Mul'.

Especially since she will be in Arcania and Mul Gurthak will not.

Note as well that Shaylar will also speak for Jasek with the Ransinarans in calling the first encounter at Fallen Timbers a horrible tragedy, AKA not Jasek's fault.

And I guarantee Gadrial can put two and two together regards Mul Gurthak and telling the Sharonan's that Shaylar is dead, when clearly she was not.

Either Mul Gurthak is incompetent or evil in doing that. And we all know from the text that Gadrial and Jasek are already bending heavily in the direction that Mul Gurthak wants a war.

When cued by his son and Gadrial, I guarantee you that Jasek's father, the Duke, will draw down on Mul Gurthak enough Andaran Military counter-intelligence surveillance that the Council of 12 will be thinking heavily of using their heart attack spell on Mul Gurthak!

Especially when that surveillance uncovers the...questionable...financial dealings associated with Mylanthan banks and Andaran officers associated with Mul Gurthak at the front with Sharona.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

And the Duke can call down a supernova of sunlight.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:22 pm

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Again I agree with much of this post. Where I disagree is mul Gurthak's appreciation of his chances of politically hamstringing the Duke. ANY attack on Jasak would have elicited the Duke's protection. Mul Gurthak was planning on attacking Jasak for long enough to plant vos Hoven. Attacking Jasak without also planning to neutralize the Duke politically is simply giving all of Andara a warning of things to come. Whatever he has to defang the Duke will likely only work once.

That suggests to me that Mythal will want to discredit as much of Andara as they possibly can. That suggests having a VERY brutal initial campaign run completely by Andarans. Jasak gets the blame for starting it with as many accusations of ineptitude and cowardice as can survive reasonably weak scrutiny. The horror of what those military meatheads did will distract from serious scrutiny.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by brnicholas   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 3:37 pm

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bkwormlisa wrote: I was thinking of this passage.
But Olderhan was out of his reach, now. Out of Mythal’s reach. It was entirely possible he would be cashiered over this business, but mul Gurthak had learned a great deal about the way the Andaran mind worked. Whatever happened to Jasak’s military career, his fellow Andarans – and the critical members of Parliament – would recognize that his performance throughout had actually been exemplary. Klian’s report already made it blindingly obvious that if Jasak’s advice had been followed, the entire portal attack would never have happened.

That might not be enough to prevent him from being cashiered, but it would certainly prevent him from being disgraced. And if Jasak left the Army, he would have to find another career worthy of Garth Showma, which meant just one thing: politics. An Andaran might actually turn a disaster like being cashiered, despite having done all the right things, into a political asset, if he were clever enough. And if Jasak Olderhan wasn’t, Thankhar Olderhan certainly was.

But what if it turned out that he hadn’t done all the right things?

Nith mul Gurthak stood very still, thinking furiously.

If future conflict with these Sharonians was avoided, it would be obvious to almost anyone that a great deal of the credit for it went to Hundred Olderhan. After all, he would be the one who’d saved the lives of the two Sharonian prisoners – made them his own shardonai – who had provided the critical insight into who and what Sharona truly was. Not to mention the prisoners who had taught Arcanan diplomats how to speak the Sharonians’ language.

But if future conflict wasn’t avoided, then young Jasak would get no credit for preventing it and still have to face the consequences of having started it. And if it turned out that it had all started out of his own incompetence or cowardice, and that he’d then falsified his report, knowing it couldn’t be challenged because every man of his company had been killed or captured by the enemy as a direct consequence of his incompetence while he himself was safe in the protection of Fort Rycharn…

It wouldn’t be easy to sell, but it wouldn’t be impossible, either. Not with the proper groundwork, and not with the elimination of so many witnesses who might have corroborated Olderhan’s version of what had happened. There were only three survivors from the company, beside vos Hoven and Olderhan himself, and if they couldn’t be suborned, there was always the possibility of securing obedience by taking hostages. That had worked often enough in the past. Or they could simply be eliminated. Klian would have to go, too, of course. But with all of them gone…

Starting the war is to disgrace Jasak (for having started it) and then all Andarans (with the torture). That's pretty clear. But mul Gurthak is specifically thinking of trying to frame Jasak with cowardice and incompetence and falsifying his reports of who started the shooting. How can he try to sell a lie while there are living witnesses that know better and truth spells to determine who is the real liar?


I think the bolded point is the key one. As I read it the plan is to kill the surviving members of the platoon and have vos Hoven present what happened in as negative a light as possible without tripping the truth spells. Then use Mythalan influence over the media to make it a case of Jasek's word (he has clear motivations to lie) against vos Hoven's word. They don't need to prove anything, they just need to convince people Jasek is probably lying and that will disgrace him. Not easy to sell, especially to Andarans put possible.

Nicholas
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Howard T. Map-addict   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:00 pm

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Yes, we all seem to be mostly in agreement here!

About "holding back resupply & re-enforcements" however,
that might be noticed.

OTOH, sending everything he has in the First Wave,
so that he has *nothing* to send later,
can look very much like "doing his duty, quickly."

If Harshu threw it away, or led it into a trap,
that is Harshu's fault! Boo. Hiss.

HTM

PeterZ wrote:I tend to agree with all of this. That's why I believe mul G has stacked the deck against the AEF beating back the initial Sharonan counter offensive. The best way to get rid of all those pesky moving parts is let the Sharonans capture them and hopefully from his POV retaliate for the atrocities they committed. They are barbarians after all. So should he hold back critical elements of resupply and reinforcements in an effort to reign in his brutally overly aggressive Andaran commander, he would likely be able to sell that back in Arcana Prime.

That just seems a prudent precaution. Especially if the Sharonans are otherwise incapable of defeating the UAA. The reinforcements could be staged at Mahritha or Hell's Gate.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by Mil-tech bard   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 4:53 pm

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This thought --

They don't need to prove anything, they just need to convince people Jasek is probably lying and that will disgrace him.


Does not work given testimony under truth spell by Jasak, Galadial, the Chief Sword and by Shaylar.

Book that Andaran Military Counter-Intelligence has tamper resistant truth spells that even the Council of 12 won't dick with for fear of forensic discovery.

Also, while most of Shylar's voice gift will be gone on Arcania, eidetic memory will likely remain as will her skill at mimicking other people's voices using that memory.


As for this:


There were only three survivors from the company, beside vos Hoven and Olderhan himself, and if they couldn’t be suborned, there was always the possibility of securing obedience by taking hostages. That had worked often enough in the past. Or they could simply be eliminated. Klian would have to go, too, of course. But with all of them gone…


This skipped over the Chief Sword, who is with Jasak, is one of the survivors and was also made without the knowledge that one of the other two survivors has a lower caste Mythal in-law who has figured out what's coming for his brother-in-law.

Mark that fact under the plot heading of "Too many independent actors for Mul Gurthak to control".
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by n7axw   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 5:21 pm

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Great thread. And I agree with most everything here.

I do have a thought to add, however. Even if Gurthak's plot would succeed in accomplishing its immediate objectives in a tactical sense, I don't think that they can strategically.

That is to say that Mythal will not be able to take control of army from the Andarans. What Gurthak and his co-conspirators don't seem to get is how deeply despised their culture and what it stands for is by everybody outside of Mythal. The Ransarians in particular are not about to put Mythalians in the driver's seat. Gurthak holds his position only on sufferance as long as he is perceived to behave.

And should there start to be questions about that, the presumption of guilt will be against him. He might well succeed in taking some of the shine off the Andarans reputation, but that won't be enough to overcome the aforementioned bias. And frankly, with the exception of Jasek, most of the Andarans involved will be tarnished by their own actions, and deservedly so.

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by brnicholas   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 7:16 pm

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Mil-tech bard wrote:This thought --

They don't need to prove anything, they just need to convince people Jasek is probably lying and that will disgrace him.


Does not work given testimony under truth spell by Jasak, Galadial, the Chief Sword and by Shaylar.

Book that Andaran Military Counter-Intelligence has tamper resistant truth spells that even the Council of 12 won't dick with for fear of forensic discovery.

Also, while most of Shylar's voice gift will be gone on Arcania, eidetic memory will likely remain as will her skill at mimicking other people's voices using that memory.


But we know that truth spells are limited. They check the truth of the statement, nothing more. Note that chan Tergis managed truthfully tell Neshok "I am the only voice Regiment-Captain Velvelig has" without mentioning Syrail, the child voice he was teaching when he was specifically asked about voices "here or in the local settlements." Vos Hoven can't flat out lie, but if (and this is a big if) he is smart enough to present the truth correctly he ought to be able to portray Jasak as having screwed up royally because he was a vengeance mad glory hound and now as twisting the truth to cover his ass.

For the rest, I agree

Nicholas
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:08 pm

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All this agreeing goin' on around here means just one thing.....We are all wrong.
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Re: Mul Gurthak trying to disgrace Jasak
Post by n7axw   » Sat Oct 03, 2015 6:37 am

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brnicholas wrote:
But we know that truth spells are limited. They check the truth of the statement, nothing more. Note that chan Tergis managed truthfully tell Neshok "I am the only voice Regiment-Captain Velvelig has" without mentioning Syrail, the child voice he was teaching when he was specifically asked about voices "here or in the local settlements." Vos Hoven can't flat out lie, but if (and this is a big if) he is smart enough to present the truth correctly he ought to be able to portray Jasak as having screwed up royally because he was a vengeance mad glory hound and now as twisting the truth to cover his ass.

For the rest, I agree

Nicholas


Vos Hoven doesn't seem to me to be either subtle or smart enough to successfully lie...

Don
When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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