tonyz wrote:...snipped...brnicholas wrote:Third, we don't know when the Arcanans will find out about chan Geraith's attack. Given that the Sharonans will be taking out the first picket months before the Arcanans need to stop chan Geraith and the fact that his main force is going to leave a trail a blind dragon couldn't miss the Arcanans ought to have plenty of time to prepare for him. But a series of lucky breaks, like the ones that kept Sharona ignorant of dragons until Janaki had his glimpse, could give chan Geraith the advantage of surprise.
I'm guessing that the Arcanans will find out relatively quickly. They almost certainly have at least semi-regular reports, and at some point well before the Bisons cross all the universes separating them, someone will notice that the regular reports aren't coming in the way they used to be. Silence is itself a signal.
...snipped...
The Arcanans certainly could find out quickly.
On the other hand, if they are careless about communicating with their pickets (and they are certainly arrogant enough to be careless) and when they do start worrying about the Nairsom/Resym picket short on dragons to check up on it. I can see it being two or three weeks before they know that someone killed the Nairsom/Resym picket. If they then go into bandit hunting mode, which is all they have really done for two centuries, and focus on finding who did it. They could easily get so focused on the point force that they don't look in Resym for anything behind it. If so Chan Geraith could be in Nairsom before they spot him.
If that happens he is about 4850 miles from Hell's Gate. I'm not sure how long that will take him, my guess based on very rough estimates and my interpretation of snippet 3 is 48 days. And once he is their Hell's Gate is only 4 miles wide, thus 10,560 feet high. I suspect he will have guns with him that can reach that high.
What do you think, can Harshu get all his men back to Mahritha on 48 days notice given the supply problems that are discussed in snippet 4? I'm inclined to think yes but it is going to be very tight.
Nicholas