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Brexit, Death of the European Union?

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Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Sun Feb 24, 2019 3:53 pm

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We are coming up on the deadline for a "Soft Brexit" with a negotiated understanding of the new rules. This almost certainly isn't going to happen so it will be a "Hard Brexit" with no such understanding. Some EU countries have announced policies that might ease the transition while others are being punitive and vindictive. Spain will reclaim Gibraltar.
The US under President Trump will no doubt invite Great Britain to become associated with NAFTA. The terms of admission will be comparable to Roosevelt's generous terms for Lend Lease. Great Britain was compelled to cede key portions of it's empire to the US in return for some obsolete destroyers.

While Great Britain will suffer, at least in the short term, Brexit is going to disturb the political balance within the EU resulting in a bunch of contentious issues becoming worse. Immigration, refugees, demographic implosion, debt in Greece, Italy and Spain, all will become explosive conflicts.

Now busy popping Pop Corn.
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by Annachie   » Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:12 pm

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Yep.

The threat of a wall so scares the Irish there's every chance Northern Ireland will leave the UK and unify with the rest of Ireland, which will trigger Scotland leaving thr UK and joining the EU, which will probably lead to Wales doing the same. Hell, Scotland were talking about it years ago.
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by Michael Everett   » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:16 pm

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Spain almost literally cannot afford to let Scotland quit the UK and join the EU as that will resurrect the Catalonia Independence movement once again.
Greece is still effectively broke while France is playing hardball to distract everyone from their internal problems, especially the yellow vest movement.
The EU is currently playing political chicken, but with their inability to obey the rules and thus their reliance on the UK to balance out their endemic corruption, the UK will probably be the only true survivor once the dust finishes settling.
The chasms within the foundations of the EU are unlikely to remain closed with the current band-aids as it is and the UK is getting while the going’s good.
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by The E   » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:21 am

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Annachie wrote:Yep.

The threat of a wall so scares the Irish there's every chance Northern Ireland will leave the UK and unify with the rest of Ireland, which will trigger Scotland leaving thr UK and joining the EU, which will probably lead to Wales doing the same. Hell, Scotland were talking about it years ago.


This is correct. Brexit isn't really threatening the EU's unity, it's threatening the UK -- Witness how the ongoing spectacle of the UK Governments' bungling of the exit process has drastically silenced the various "-exit" campaigns in the rest of the EU. It's becoming very clear that the cost of an ill-prepared exit from the EU is far greater than the cost of staying in it.

Michael Everett wrote:Spain almost literally cannot afford to let Scotland quit the UK and join the EU as that will resurrect the Catalonia Independence movement once again.


This is wrong, on many levels. Or rather, it's not taking into account changed circumstances.

Back when the UK was an EU member state, yes, Spain couldn't really afford to be seen encouraging scottish independence. But once the UK exits, things change: At that point, letting an independent Scotland join becomes much easier (I would expect Spain to put up at least a token resistance regardless, but not much more).

Greece is still effectively broke while France is playing hardball to distract everyone from their internal problems, especially the yellow vest movement.


In what regard are the french "playing hardball"? Last I checked, Macron was busy appeasing the gilets jaunes; a movement which has already begun to splinter and, in its latest protest, has drawn criticism for anti-semitic speech. At this rate, they're not going to last long as a popular movement.

The EU is currently playing political chicken, but with their inability to obey the rules and thus their reliance on the UK to balance out their endemic corruption, the UK will probably be the only true survivor once the dust finishes settling.


See this for an example of the delusions underlying Brexit. The UK isn't "balancing" anything; they are (or were, as the case may be) the most priviledged EU member state. There were so many special cases and exceptions built in to the UK's membership that the regulatory cost of accomodating them is not trivial.

The chasms within the foundations of the EU are unlikely to remain closed with the current band-aids as it is and the UK is getting while the going’s good.


I'm curious how you'll feel about it in 6 months, after the UK has crashed out of the EU with no deal.
Also, I'm accepting bets on how much time Theresa May and the Tories have left in office after April 1st!
Personally, I'm thinking she'll be gone before then, but that's just my natural optimism speaking....
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by Annachie   » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:05 am

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No matter what happens May wont last mid year.

Either she pulls off a miracle and gets out while she's a hero, or more likely, Brexit is a trainwreck and she gets tossed on her arse.

Or she pulls out and gets out while she can.
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by isaac_newton   » Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:56 am

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Annachie wrote:No matter what happens May wont last mid year.

Either she pulls off a miracle and gets out while she's a hero, or more likely, Brexit is a trainwreck and she gets tossed on her arse.

Or she pulls out and gets out while she can.


chased out with pitchforks...

Unlike Michael,I was/am a remainer :-)

Anna - I read with great interest/concern that article that you pointed aout in another thread
https://apnews.com/2b8513d4a4224a559d70%20...%20_medium=AP - Putins activities in the US election

I can't help but wonder how much Brexit was used as an experimental playground by Putin as a warm up before the main game - after all how much would those 'cans of petrol' cost him and what massive benefits he has gained - probably far beyound his wildest dreams:
- UK in utter turmoil- more pain and grief to come for years
- EU being damaged
what's not to like [for Putin]?
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by Daryl   » Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:53 pm

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Now a new referendum seems possible. They can correct the populist mistake and stay. Bet many in the US wish that they could reverse their populist decision.
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by George J. Smith   » Tue Feb 26, 2019 4:41 am

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If they do have another referendum I hope they get it right.

A minimum 75% turn out of eligible voters and a minimum 60% of those voters required to carry the vote.

By my reckoning only around 50% voted at the last referendum and 51% of those carried the vote, or in other words only around 25% of people entitled to vote actually voted to leave the EU.

I suppose we got what we deserved for not stipulating minimum turn out required in the first place.
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by munroburton   » Tue Feb 26, 2019 6:55 am

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Michael Everett wrote:Spain almost literally cannot afford to let Scotland quit the UK and join the EU as that will resurrect the Catalonia Independence movement once again.


"Resurrect" would imply that movement is dead. It is not. They won a slim majority at their last regional election and polling over the past years indicates that support is still quite close to peak levels. I wonder how the current trials of Catalan politicians will affect that.

Spain would let Scotland in, probably demanding more of the fishing quotas. Whilst it's true they don't want to fuel the Catalan independence movement, it's also true they're not fully on the UK's side either - thanks to Gibraltar.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... to-join-eu

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain ... KKCN1NP25P

The nuanced Spanish position is that seceding nations/regions can be recognised, as long as it is done in accordance with the constitutional requirements of the pre-secession state.

In Spain, that requires the whole of Spain to approve if part wants to leave. Under the United Kingdom, rules can vary quite a bit but basically this only requires a majority in a referendum concerning the part that wants to leave(eg. Scotland, NI, Malta, etc).
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Re: Brexit, Death of the European Union?
Post by Imaginos1892   » Tue Feb 26, 2019 10:15 am

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George J. Smith wrote:By my reckoning only around 50% voted at the last referendum and 51% of those carried the vote, or in other words only around 25% of people entitled to vote actually voted to leave the EU.

I'd say the ones who didn't even care enough to vote made their opinions quite clear.
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