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Like it or lump it....

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Like it or lump it....
Post by Fireflair   » Wed May 09, 2018 11:46 pm

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With North and South Korea talking and the strong potential for the cease fire from the Korean Civil War turning into a truce and maybe eventual peace, you may be sure that Trump will take/be given the credit for it.

As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by Daryl   » Thu May 10, 2018 4:06 am

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Time will tell, but I can't see NK getting rid of their nukes. My bet is that they will be the recognition of finally managing to get a POTUS to talk directly to them, then will prevaricate and bluster for months until it all falls over after the get some sanctions lifted.
They have continually requested this for decades, but been rebuffed before.

Fireflair wrote:With North and South Korea talking and the strong potential for the cease fire from the Korean Civil War turning into a truce and maybe eventual peace, you may be sure that Trump will take/be given the credit for it.

As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by The E   » Thu May 10, 2018 6:43 am

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Fireflair wrote:As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?


While it is undoubtedly true that Trump himself and anyone deluded enough to think that Trump is a good president will give Trump a lot of credit for the current Korea situation, doing so would be wrong.

Trump's contribution to this whole process was, basically, being too unpredictable for the status quo to continue. That's not a good thing. North Korean foreign policy was predicated on two things: One, a need to project strength outwards, and two, a recognition that the mostly rational actors in South Korea, China and the US really do not want the korean peninsula to erupt into war. Trump's stupidity and impulsiveness forced North Korea to finally start to admit that the status quo cannot continue, and can't be resolved by military action.

If there is credit due, it's on the Korean governments who are doing the negotiating. Trump's influence is ... incidental, really. If a natural disaster had struck North Korea, forcing them to request open help from the rest of the world, the outcome would likely not be any different.

Let's also not forget that Trump isn't "facing down" dictators. He isn't standing up to them, he isn't telling them "not only no, but hell no" or anything like that. He's a fucking sycophant to people who are, shall we say, less constrained by the constitutional definition of their roles. He's a fanboy for strong, manly dictators.
Also, as we've seen in the Iran thing, the result of his actions isn't that he's forcing other countries to play ball with the US. He is actively isolating and discrediting the US (which, I understand, is for some reason seen as a good thing by some actors in US politics?).
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by pappilon   » Thu May 10, 2018 4:35 pm

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The E wrote:
Fireflair wrote:As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?


While it is undoubtedly true that Trump himself and anyone deluded enough to think that Trump is a good president will give Trump a lot of credit for the current Korea situation, doing so would be wrong.

Trump's contribution to this whole process was, basically, being too unpredictable for the status quo to continue. That's not a good thing. North Korean foreign policy was predicated on two things: One, a need to project strength outwards, and two, a recognition that the mostly rational actors in South Korea, China and the US really do not want the korean peninsula to erupt into war. Trump's stupidity and impulsiveness forced North Korea to finally start to admit that the status quo cannot continue, and can't be resolved by military action.

If there is credit due, it's on the Korean governments who are doing the negotiating. Trump's influence is ... incidental, really. If a natural disaster had struck North Korea, forcing them to request open help from the rest of the world, the outcome would likely not be any different.

Let's also not forget that Trump isn't "facing down" dictators. He isn't standing up to them, he isn't telling them "not only no, but hell no" or anything like that. He's a fucking sycophant to people who are, shall we say, less constrained by the constitutional definition of their roles. He's a fanboy for strong, manly dictators.
Also, as we've seen in the Iran thing, the result of his actions isn't that he's forcing other countries to play ball with the US. He is actively isolating and discrediting the US (which, I understand, is for some reason seen as a good thing by some actors in US politics?).


I would give credit to China. It is caught in the middle. It doesn't want a trade war with, the US, Doesn't want the US in South Korea. Doesn't want a unified Korea with a us presence on its border. Had been violating the sanctions to keep DPRK afloat because it doesn't want a million or so refugees any more than Trump does.

China recently told Kim that they would no longer be shipping coal and other commodities. So that is pressuring Kim to do something. We may get an end to the Korean conflict with some reconciliation, I can't see South Koreans volunteering to live under KIm's communist regime, and I can't see Kim giving up his godhood to live as a mere politician in a Capitalist S. Korea. So not much room for reunification.

No idea what that means for a US/N.Korea deal. Kim wants denuclearized Korean peninsula by which he means US Nukes not a threat to his regime. Which means no US troop presence on the south. Trump means Kim gives up his nukes. I see a problem for the US here if reconciliation and Peace Treaty is contingent on US forces leaving S.Korea.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by Starsaber   » Thu May 10, 2018 9:21 pm

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Fireflair wrote:With North and South Korea talking and the strong potential for the cease fire from the Korean Civil War turning into a truce and maybe eventual peace, you may be sure that Trump will take/be given the credit for it.

As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?


He'd take credit for the sun rising if he thought he could get away with it.
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by Daryl   » Thu May 10, 2018 9:51 pm

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Location: Queensland Australia

I agree with your theory. There is speculation that what finally did in the Soviet Union was Reagan's start of senility. If the Soviets were dealing with fully rational opponents they could map out just how far you could push it, but with Reagan there was the potential for an irrational response.

I still don't believe that Kim will give up his existing nukes, as he knows that when he does there is no bargaining lever left.
The E wrote:
Fireflair wrote:As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?


While it is undoubtedly true that Trump himself and anyone deluded enough to think that Trump is a good president will give Trump a lot of credit for the current Korea situation, doing so would be wrong.

Trump's contribution to this whole process was, basically, being too unpredictable for the status quo to continue. That's not a good thing. North Korean foreign policy was predicated on two things: One, a need to project strength outwards, and two, a recognition that the mostly rational actors in South Korea, China and the US really do not want the korean peninsula to erupt into war. Trump's stupidity and impulsiveness forced North Korea to finally start to admit that the status quo cannot continue, and can't be resolved by military action.

If there is credit due, it's on the Korean governments who are doing the negotiating. Trump's influence is ... incidental, really. If a natural disaster had struck North Korea, forcing them to request open help from the rest of the world, the outcome would likely not be any different.

Let's also not forget that Trump isn't "facing down" dictators. He isn't standing up to them, he isn't telling them "not only no, but hell no" or anything like that. He's a fucking sycophant to people who are, shall we say, less constrained by the constitutional definition of their roles. He's a fanboy for strong, manly dictators.
Also, as we've seen in the Iran thing, the result of his actions isn't that he's forcing other countries to play ball with the US. He is actively isolating and discrediting the US (which, I understand, is for some reason seen as a good thing by some actors in US politics?).
Top
Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by pappilon   » Mon May 14, 2018 1:29 pm

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Daryl wrote:I agree with your theory. There is speculation that what finally did in the Soviet Union was Reagan's start of senility. If the Soviets were dealing with fully rational opponents they could map out just how far you could push it, but with Reagan there was the potential for an irrational response.

I still don't believe that Kim will give up his existing nukes, as he knows that when he does there is no bargaining lever left.

The E wrote:As the subject say, like it or lump it, hate him or love him, you know that this is something that will most definitely be credited as Trump's doing. More than this, there's the strong possibility that he'll be seen as being able to face down dictators or bully regimes into playing ball with the US.

Thoughts?



Kim has always wanted to be treated as an equal, That is the purpose of his Nuke program. He will not give them up. There is too much evidence of regime change after concessions to the US.

I am not particularly optimistic over there being any change in status vis a vis The Koreas.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by Fireflair   » Wed May 16, 2018 12:45 am

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Oh I agree over all with everything that's being postulated here. I highly doubt that Kim is going to give up his nukes. I also don't believe that Trump is responsible for North Korea coming to the table to talk, except in a mostly peripheral way.

(And it's highly probable that Trump would claim credit for the sun rising and setting if he could get away with it!)

I was just pointing out where the credit is likely to go to when history is written. The president is primarily a figure head these days in many ways (thought not all!) with limited powers. Blaming or crediting the president for what happens in the economy, the housing market, healthcare, the military or world political scene is a lot like blaming the CEO of Exxon for how well your local Exxon gas station does. Yes he sets a tone and provides some sort of leadership/guidance, but your local leaders have WAY more influence and effect.

My personal view of the situation is that North Korea is only coming to the table because Kim feels pressured by China. That Kim's people are really being hit hard by the embargos and restrictions on the country which is straining his economy and causing more disruptions in the populace than his military and police forces can easily accommodate. And lastly because Kim feels that he's getting what he wants.

I too do not see a unified Korea coming out of this. Kim enjoys being a dictator too much. But if the Korean ceasefire turns into a peace treaty, Kim may be able to look forward to having a vastly reduced US presence in South Korea.
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Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by pappilon   » Wed May 16, 2018 3:50 am

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Fireflair wrote:Oh I agree over all with everything that's being postulated here. I highly doubt that Kim is going to give up his nukes. I also don't believe that Trump is responsible for North Korea coming to the table to talk, except in a mostly peripheral way.

(And it's highly probable that Trump would claim credit for the sun rising and setting if he could get away with it!)

I was just pointing out where the credit is likely to go to when history is written. The president is primarily a figure head these days in many ways (thought not all!) with limited powers. Blaming or crediting the president for what happens in the economy, the housing market, healthcare, the military or world political scene is a lot like blaming the CEO of Exxon for how well your local Exxon gas station does. Yes he sets a tone and provides some sort of leadership/guidance, but your local leaders have WAY more influence and effect.

My personal view of the situation is that North Korea is only coming to the table because Kim feels pressured by China. That Kim's people are really being hit hard by the embargos and restrictions on the country which is straining his economy and causing more disruptions in the populace than his military and police forces can easily accommodate. And lastly because Kim feels that he's getting what he wants.

I too do not see a unified Korea coming out of this. Kim enjoys being a dictator too much. But if the Korean ceasefire turns into a peace treaty, Kim may be able to look forward to having a vastly reduced US presence in South Korea.


And with yesterday's developments, will Trump get the blame if N. Korea cancells all tslks?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The imagination has to be trained into foresight and empathy.
Ursula K. LeGuinn

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Top
Re: Like it or lump it....
Post by Daryl   » Wed May 16, 2018 6:29 am

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Latest news looks like Kim is doing what many have predicted. He has had a couple of meetings with the Chinese leader, and is now in the position of being able to say that the US leader wanted to meet him in an equal one on one, but he decided to tell him to f*** off. Thus he is now a powerful world leader.
Turns out that several previous US Presidents from both sides have declined to meet with the then current NK dictator, fearing that exactly this would happen.
Kim can even say that he acted in good faith, releasing three prisoners and ceasing to use the rubble that was a mountain as a test site.
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