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2017

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2017
Post by biochem   » Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:09 pm

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So how did the USA do in 2017

Well the issue people care most about is the economy

Job - workforce participation rate is a hair higher than 2016 but nothing to write home about so the jobless recovery is continuing

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

(As I've complained a 1000 times I hate the unemployment rate, the government just uses various excuses to count people to make the economy look better.)

Stock market - going up, so that's good for the 401Ks

Wages - not improving

http://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/


Perception - a hair better but not not much change

http://www.people-press.org/2017/11/07/ ... nancially/

On the bright side nothing seems to be getting worse

Grade B




National security / terrorism - the other major issue people care about the most

ISIS - Mad Dog seems to be successful

Domestic - about the same, occasional attacks by ISIS inspired lone wolves but no organized USA attacks

Grade A-
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Re: 2017
Post by Daryl   » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:58 am

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Interesting short assessment.
Much the same here in Australia on all topics. I note you mentioned low wage growth. We have the same problem. Funny how there has been a concerted effort by big business to crush and marginalise unions for a decade or so, now they are complaining that low wage growth has reduced discretionary family incomes and thus reduced spending.
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Re: 2017
Post by dscott8   » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:02 am

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In the USA, the worst things about 2017 are:

The relentless takeover of our government by business interests, which includes rollbacks of health, safety and environmental regulations, giving over public lands to private exploitation, and reining in consumer protections.

The deliberate destruction of the credibility of professional journalism, and the promotion of whackos like Alex Jones and their "alternative facts".

The way we've arrogantly pissed off our allies. When was the last time the Queen of England refused to receive a sitting President?
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Re: 2017
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:26 pm

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Biochem,

Take a look at this very interesting take on demographics and trade. Sorry, it's long, but worth it when you have time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd8uiIpAy8E
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Re: 2017
Post by gcomeau   » Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:16 pm

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biochem wrote:So how did the USA do in 2017

Well the issue people care most about is the economy

Job - workforce participation rate is a hair higher than 2016 but nothing to write home about so the jobless recovery is continuing

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

(As I've complained a 1000 times I hate the unemployment rate, the government just uses various excuses to count people to make the economy look better.)

Stock market - going up, so that's good for the 401Ks

Wages - not improving

http://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/


Perception - a hair better but not not much change

http://www.people-press.org/2017/11/07/ ... nancially/

On the bright side nothing seems to be getting worse

Grade B


Shorter summary. Trump has done squat. Congress has passed nothing. The economy is coasting along on the trajectory Obama handed it off on. And Trump is tweeting every day about how great it is and how he's 100% responsible for it by virtue of nothing more than him physically standing in the White House at this particular point in time.


National security / terrorism - the other major issue people care about the most

ISIS - Mad Dog seems to be successful


If by successful you mean doing the exact same thing about ISIS the military has been doing for years.

While I will acknowledge he is apparently the sole member of this entire administration who actually has qualifications for the post he was given and knows the first thing about it, what that has resulted in is him saying basically "yeah we're not making big changes to something that was working already" and just tinkering around the edges.

Domestic - about the same, occasional attacks by ISIS inspired lone wolves but no organized USA attacks

Grade A-


Wow, cut that evaluation off pretty damn short didn't you?

How about the entire State Department falling apart?

One of the US's closest allies is openly debating whether to *allow* the US President to make a state visit, not in the streets or in the media but in their parliament... on the grounds that he is a racist bigot deliberately enabling far right hate groups.

Germany has essentially PUBLICLY written US leadership off completely.

China is just doing whatever they want and laughing their asses off at the fact that Trump lets them do anything as long as they flatter him. (See also: Duterte)

The US president got in a twitter name calling contest with an unstable nuclear armed dictator. Which, so far has been most of his contribution to addressing the North Korea nuclear issue. Well, that and publicly undermining his own State department negotiators.

He is alienating every traditional American ally, while making buddy buddy with dictatorial authoritarians he sees as "strong leaders" he admires. If it wasn't for North Korea constantly threatening to nuke America he'd be praising Kim Jong-Unfor his "strong leadership" too. (Or rather, he would *still* be praising him for it since he did it already)

He's STILL essentially ignoring Puerto Rico.

He's over 2 months overdue imposing legally mandated Russia sanctions... at this point it's just blatant feet dragging protection of his hero Putin over American interests.

Etc.... etc..... etc.... etc...
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Re: 2017
Post by biochem   » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:31 am

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PeterZ wrote:Biochem,

Take a look at this very interesting take on demographics and trade. Sorry, it's long, but worth it when you have time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd8uiIpAy8E



My apologies for being so slow to respond, I've been tied up with year end deadlines. Very entertaining speaker and interesting to listen to.

Pundits elsewhere have described Donald Trump as an opportunist. This assessment is in accordance with that. Like most opportunists Donald Trump is very good at taking advantage of gaps. The political parties have left gaping holes that Donald Trump could exploit. The need for better trade deals, America first foreign policy (every other country on the planet operates their foreign policy this way, we need to too we can't afford to be the global white knight any longer), therxpectation that if we do something that we will benefit in return etc. and the failure of politicians to do something about is is something inve been complaining about for years. Donald Trump didn't invent these issues. I found this speaker's explanation of the underlying social economics driving this shift very interesting.

It's also in testing that he thinks that all presidents for some time to come will be populists. Imagine what could happen if a president was elected who believed in Donald Trumps issues but who didn't have his problematic personality. I've been saying that the Democrat's could steal this from him. They just need to find a candidate who can out-Trump Trump. I don't think they are going to in the near term though since they hate Trump beyond all reason. The first step in stealing Trump's issues is to admit that Trump is right about something and they hate him too much to do that.

Wars - I think he is missing a couple of things on Japan China. He forgot mutually assured destruction. China is nuclear and Japan could be in a nanosecond if they wanted to which they would if the situation with China gets as bad as he predicts. He also assumes that China would remain dependent on oil shipments from the Middle East. China has their own shale reserves which they would exploit is the sea route becomes as dangerous as he predicts. I do strongly agree with him on the stability of the Chinese lending market ( or to be more precise, the lack thereof).

I find his analysis of the interactions between foreign leaders and Trump fascinating. If he is correct (and he probably is) Trump is making significant progress on the international America first front (given the everyone else first US last mentality of most of these trade negotiators, doing better is a really low bar). Now Trump isn't nearly as good of a negotiator as he thinks he is, if this speaker is right and all presidents in the future are Trumpian populists, imagine what a president who actually is as good of a negotiator as Trump thinks he is could do.

Predicting the future isn't an exact science. I tend to think that he is right about the increasing instability but I doubt it will be as severe as he predicts.

If the Mexican drug war heats up as much as he predicts Trump may get his border wall and more.

I'd be interested to hear what the outside USA people think of his analysis of their countries.
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Re: 2017
Post by biochem   » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:51 am

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wow cut that evaluation pretty damn short did you?


Those 2 issues are the issues the public cares the most about regarding the United States as a country. In spite of what he (and apparently you think Donald Trump does not equal the United States.

Re international

1. They need us more that we need them.
2. Narcissists are fairly easy to manipulate.
3. Most world leaders aren't stupid.

Ergo they will deal with Trump's obnoxious personality because:

1. They have to.
2. They'll figure out how to manipulate him to get what they want.
3. Most of them are smart enough to realize it.
4. They will realize shortly if they haven't already the fact that Trump ( unlike past US leaders) isn't interested in meddling in their domestic affairs, which is to their benefit.
5. They understand that in 3 or 7 years there will be another president.

Your analysis assumes that the majority of world leaders are stupid and will allow personal animas to drive their decision making.
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Re: 2017
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:31 pm

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biochem wrote:
wow cut that evaluation pretty damn short did you?


Those 2 issues are the issues the public cares the most about regarding the United States as a country.


http://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-i ... oblem.aspx

Look again.


Percentage of people who thought the most important issue was....

Economy issues of any kind, total: 21%

But broken down:
State of economy in general: 6%
Jobs: 6%
Deficit: 4%
Wealth Inequality: 2%
Taxes: 1%
Lack of money: 1%
Wage issues: 1%



Your big economic selling point for giving trump a B on the overall issue of Economic performance? Stock market. Barely hits any of those except "economy in general" and only partially addresses that one. And since the boost in the stock market is being fueled by an anticipated TRILLION dollar hole being blown in the deficit and the benefits accrue massively disproportionately to the rich it's an unequivocal negative on Deficit, Wealth inequality, Lack of money and Wage issues.


Besides Economy? Net non Economic issues were picked by 78% of the electorate. And within that category?

Dissatisfaction with the government / poor leadership. 18%.

FAR AND AWAY the biggest individual concern with the single exception of....

Health Care: 18%

You know that thing the GOP keep trying to blow up and take away from people with MASSIVELY unpopular legislation?

Let's see.... where is Nat/Sec ISIS on this list....

Oh there it is!

Terrorism: 2%.
North Korea: 1%
Lack of Military Defense: 1%


Keep living in your fantasy world where NatSec/Terrorism/Isis is one of the big two concerns of voters.

In spite of what he (and apparently you think Donald Trump does not equal the United States.

Re international

1. They need us more that we need them.
2. Narcissists are fairly easy to manipulate.
3. Most world leaders aren't stupid.


It's amazing that you seem to think that list is some kind of argument in defense of Trump.

I mean, truly stunning.
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Re: 2017
Post by Annachie   » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:38 pm

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I think that little list of three points at the end really don't support an America first trade negotiation.
Actually they speak to the opposite.
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Re: 2017
Post by Eyal   » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:23 am

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Speaking of it...in what way have previous administrations help "America last" negotiations? Because, e.g., the Canadians and Mexicans certainly don't seem to think of that of NAFTA, given some of the complaints I've seen from those countries surrounding the renegotiation...
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