2017

Eyal wrote:Speaking of it...in what way have previous administrations help "America last" negotiations?

In the exact same way there's ever been a "war on Christmas" in a country where over 70% of the population is Christian and way over 90% of it's political leadership is Christian.

In the little persecution complex driven fever dreams of the right where they have a desperate need to be the "real victims" of society and the government.

It's not Trump that gets a B on economic performance, it's the United States as a whole country. Trump has only president for a year, so the only impact that he COULD have would be forward looking indicators.

A= a lot better
B = some improvement
C= exactly the same as last year
D= somewhat worse than the previous year
F = a lot worse

There has been some improvement. Not much but some so B.

Eyal wrote:Speaking of it...in what way have previous administrations help "America last" negotiations? Because, e.g., the Canadians and Mexicans certainly don't seem to think of that of NAFTA, given some of the complaints I've seen from those countries surrounding the renegotiation...

A lot of the trade deals were let's help the other country improve their economy so that they'll like us i.e. spend money get friendship. Didn't work.

Others were just poorly negotiated. We have some of the best negotiators in the world but they don't work for the government. We'll see if Trump or more likely his staff can do better.

PeterZ wrote:Biochem,
Take a look at this very interesting take on demographics and trade. Sorry, it's long, but worth it when you have time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd8uiIpAy8E

biochem wrote:My apologies for being so slow to respond, I've been tied up with year end deadlines. Very entertaining speaker and interesting to listen to.

Pundits elsewhere have described Donald Trump as an opportunist. This assessment is in accordance with that. Like most opportunists Donald Trump is very good at taking advantage of gaps. The political parties have left gaping holes that Donald Trump could exploit. The need for better trade deals, America first foreign policy (every other country on the planet operates their foreign policy this way, we need to too we can't afford to be the global white knight any longer), therxpectation that if we do something that we will benefit in return etc. and the failure of politicians to do something about is is something inve been complaining about for years. Donald Trump didn't invent these issues. I found this speaker's explanation of the underlying social economics driving this shift very interesting.

It's also in testing that he thinks that all presidents for some time to come will be populists. Imagine what could happen if a president was elected who believed in Donald Trumps issues but who didn't have his problematic personality. I've been saying that the Democrat's could steal this from him. They just need to find a candidate who can out-Trump Trump. I don't think they are going to in the near term though since they hate Trump beyond all reason. The first step in stealing Trump's issues is to admit that Trump is right about something and they hate him too much to do that.

Wars - I think he is missing a couple of things on Japan China. He forgot mutually assured destruction. China is nuclear and Japan could be in a nanosecond if they wanted to which they would if the situation with China gets as bad as he predicts. He also assumes that China would remain dependent on oil shipments from the Middle East. China has their own shale reserves which they would exploit is the sea route becomes as dangerous as he predicts. I do strongly agree with him on the stability of the Chinese lending market ( or to be more precise, the lack thereof).

I find his analysis of the interactions between foreign leaders and Trump fascinating. If he is correct (and he probably is) Trump is making significant progress on the international America first front (given the everyone else first US last mentality of most of these trade negotiators, doing better is a really low bar). Now Trump isn't nearly as good of a negotiator as he thinks he is, if this speaker is right and all presidents in the future are Trumpian populists, imagine what a president who actually is as good of a negotiator as Trump thinks he is could do.

Predicting the future isn't an exact science. I tend to think that he is right about the increasing instability but I doubt it will be as severe as he predicts.

If the Mexican drug war heats up as much as he predicts Trump may get his border wall and more.

I'd be interested to hear what the outside USA people think of his analysis of their countries.

My turn to apologize for tardiness.
What struck me most was his take on Millennials. Not sure just how much of that I buy. I spoke with my daughters about the characteristics Zeihan attributed to Millennials and several things crystalized.

Millennials are much more insular than their preceding generations on the whole. There is a distinct unwillingness to apologize or admit fault. This isn't absolute, but that unwillingness does make millennials less apt to subsume their interests or POV to something larger....like political principles. Not moral principles, but political ones. The most obvious application of this is in supporting expensive social services as the millennials grow older. How willing will this group be to accept the cost of big government entitlements when they have to raise their own children? Social security depends on their supporting the aging generations through transfer payments. How willing are they to welcome immigrants that compete for jobs and social services their children will need? 45% of millennials voted for Trump, not be cause they like him, but because they recognize his policies will improve the opportunities available to them.

My takeaway from my discussions with my daughters and Zeihan's comments was that conservatives and liberals will less influential moving forward. The millennials will be much more populist in that they will take what works for them and will be much less interested in how it works or which principles these policies follow. Both Democrats and Republicans should recognize that their brands have become devalued. Should Trump be successful in juicing the economy, he will strongly suggest that the establishment pukes of either party are NOT essential to good governance. Outsiders are also viable agents to bring prosperity to the nation. Heck, if an outsider as universally acclaimed for his stupidity as Trump can generate prosperity, then the establishment a$$hats in either party are truly useless.

I do think that an electorate as insular as millennials are suggesting they can be will also be much less interested in international politics. Between ANWAR and the technological advances around fracking, the US is becoming less dependent on energy and petroleum based chemical feedstock. There are fewer reasons for the US to engage abroad. Combined with increased insularity of the largest voting block, this suggests our elected officials will grow less and less willing to use up political capital to address issues abroad. Since our millennials will be the largest consumer market, those leaders will demand and get serious concessions from other nations to access our market.

These suggest the US boom is just beginning.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/germans-fear-huge-loss-of-jobs-from-us-tax-reform-865577?ref=NzgzMjI2&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=outbrain-retfeb17

http://www.zew.de/en/presse/pressearchiv/deutschland-ist-der-verlierer-der-us-steuerreform/?cHash=75addafc432190cf3c257046de2fb167

Zeihan's assertion that agriculture will be the one area of US exports that will grow is also interesting. I suspect that the ability for the rest of the world to increase production does depend in the stability in those food producing regions. I sure hope they can fend for themselves, because I tend to agree that Trump's will be the most internationally involved administration for quite some time.

Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.

PeterZ wrote:Millennials are much more insular than their preceding generations on the whole. There is a distinct unwillingness to apologize or admit fault.

Not sure why we should be apologizing for all the shit previous generations have saddled us with, or accept fault for not following your career paths despite the cost of doing so having risen by quite a lot over the past few years.

This isn't absolute, but that unwillingness does make millennials less apt to subsume their interests or POV to something larger....like political principles. Not moral principles, but political ones. The most obvious application of this is in supporting expensive social services as the millennials grow older.

Right, because letting you and your generation rob social security to pay for wars we don't want or for gifts to yourselves is something we should just accept, right? YOU made social services bloated and inefficient. YOU and your fucking insistence that government can't work, therefore let's vote for people who can't govern to prove that government is bad.

Get off your horse and smell the shit.

How willing will this group be to accept the cost of big government entitlements when they have to raise their own children? Social security depends on their supporting the aging generations through transfer payments. How willing are they to welcome immigrants that compete for jobs and social services their children will need? 45% of millennials voted for Trump, not be cause they like him, but because they recognize his policies will improve the opportunities available to them.

More than you think we are.

Also, maybe consider that the things you think you're entitled to are things we might not be able to provide you with because of the damage you've done to the system?

My takeaway from my discussions with my daughters and Zeihan's comments was that conservatives and liberals will less influential moving forward. The millennials will be much more populist in that they will take what works for them and will be much less interested in how it works or which principles these policies follow. Both Democrats and Republicans should recognize that their brands have become devalued. Should Trump be successful in juicing the economy, he will strongly suggest that the establishment pukes of either party are NOT essential to good governance. Outsiders are also viable agents to bring prosperity to the nation. Heck, if an outsider as universally acclaimed for his stupidity as Trump can generate prosperity, then the establishment a$$hats in either party are truly useless.

Except Trump and the GOP are idiots who are in line for a massive amount of backlash in the next few elections, while the Democrats can literally just sit back, relax, crucify people in their own ranks who are guilty of misconduct, and watch while the GOP dies of old age and internal strife between people who might have principles and actual Nazis.

These suggest the US boom is just beginning.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/germans-fear-huge-loss-of-jobs-from-us-tax-reform-865577?ref=NzgzMjI2&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=outbrain-retfeb17

http://www.zew.de/en/presse/pressearchiv/deutschland-ist-der-verlierer-der-us-steuerreform/?cHash=75addafc432190cf3c257046de2fb167

Don't mistake whatever the neoliberal version of wishful thinking is for actual predictions of the future.

Surfing YouTube and this video popped up. This black lady laid the smack down about Trump haters. So, if your like The E that have safe spaces don't watch or listen to this video because You Can't Handle the Truth! Yes The E their is a cure for TDS but a person has to learn to critically think for themselves and use discernment. The E, I want you know that I am praying for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD0CYKK_mMo

smr wrote:Surfing YouTube and this video popped up. This black lady laid the smack down about Trump haters. So, if your like The E that have safe spaces don't watch or listen to this video because You Can't Handle the Truth! Yes The E their is a cure for TDS but a person has to learn to critically think for themselves and use discernment. The E, I want you know that I am praying for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD0CYKK_mMo

Funny thing about critical thinking. It makes you notice little things. Like Candace Owens not actually talking about facts, or mentioning sources. So, while she may genuinely believe the shit she's spouting, that doesn't make her right.

Candace Owens isn't part of my echo chamber, no. She's part of yours: What she says seems more true to you because if a young black woman says that accusations of racism are unfounded, she must know what she's talking about, right?

I am not surprised that you fell for her. She is exactly the sort of useful idiot (look up the term!) that the current alt-right movement wants, needs and cultivates. Just like you are.
See, here's the thing. I know more about the internet subculture this person is coming from than you do. I can recognize her bullshit for what it is, what it is intended to do and who it is aimed at.
Most importantly, this is a video that's not aimed at me (i.e. someone who you think is harbouring wrong opinions about Trump). It was made for you (i.e. someone who is convinced that if the Liberals hate something, that something must be good). Specifically, it was made for you to share around and point to and feel good about yourself, because if a young black woman tells you that your opinions aren't wrong, that your elected leader isn't a racist shitbag who lies about everything and everyone, it must be true! It doesn't matter that she isn't linking to facts. All that matters is that it sounds good to you.
That's what an echo chamber feels like, smr. Can you recognize it?

Yup, part of the 45% of millennial a that voted Trump. Captures TDS pretty well, too.

smr wrote:Surfing YouTube and this video popped up. This black lady laid the smack down about Trump haters. So, if your like The E that have safe spaces don't watch or listen to this video because You Can't Handle the Truth! Yes The E their is a cure for TDS but a person has to learn to critically think for themselves and use discernment. The E, I want you know that I am praying for you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD0CYKK_mMo

I'm slow again. But the relatives are back on the airplane and I'm back online.

PeterZ wrote:

PeterZ wrote:Biochem,
Take a look at this very interesting take on demographics and trade. Sorry, it's long, but worth it when you have time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nd8uiIpAy8E

biochem wrote:My apologies for being so slow to respond, I've been tied up with year end deadlines. Very entertaining speaker and interesting to listen to.

Pundits elsewhere have described Donald Trump as an opportunist. This assessment is in accordance with that. Like most opportunists Donald Trump is very good at taking advantage of gaps. The political parties have left gaping holes that Donald Trump could exploit. The need for better trade deals, America first foreign policy (every other country on the planet operates their foreign policy this way, we need to too we can't afford to be the global white knight any longer), therxpectation that if we do something that we will benefit in return etc. and the failure of politicians to do something about is is something inve been complaining about for years. Donald Trump didn't invent these issues. I found this speaker's explanation of the underlying social economics driving this shift very interesting.

It's also in testing that he thinks that all presidents for some time to come will be populists. Imagine what could happen if a president was elected who believed in Donald Trumps issues but who didn't have his problematic personality. I've been saying that the Democrat's could steal this from him. They just need to find a candidate who can out-Trump Trump. I don't think they are going to in the near term though since they hate Trump beyond all reason. The first step in stealing Trump's issues is to admit that Trump is right about something and they hate him too much to do that.

Wars - I think he is missing a couple of things on Japan China. He forgot mutually assured destruction. China is nuclear and Japan could be in a nanosecond if they wanted to which they would if the situation with China gets as bad as he predicts. He also assumes that China would remain dependent on oil shipments from the Middle East. China has their own shale reserves which they would exploit is the sea route becomes as dangerous as he predicts. I do strongly agree with him on the stability of the Chinese lending market ( or to be more precise, the lack thereof).

I find his analysis of the interactions between foreign leaders and Trump fascinating. If he is correct (and he probably is) Trump is making significant progress on the international America first front (given the everyone else first US last mentality of most of these trade negotiators, doing better is a really low bar). Now Trump isn't nearly as good of a negotiator as he thinks he is, if this speaker is right and all presidents in the future are Trumpian populists, imagine what a president who actually is as good of a negotiator as Trump thinks he is could do.

Predicting the future isn't an exact science. I tend to think that he is right about the increasing instability but I doubt it will be as severe as he predicts.

If the Mexican drug war heats up as much as he predicts Trump may get his border wall and more.

I'd be interested to hear what the outside USA people think of his analysis of their countries.

My turn to apologize for tardiness.

What struck me most was his take on Millennials. Not sure just how much of that I buy. I spoke with my daughters about the characteristics Zeihan attributed to Millennials and several things crystalized.

Millennials are much more insular than their preceding generations on the whole. There is a distinct unwillingness to apologize or admit fault. This isn't absolute, but that unwillingness does make millennials less apt to subsume their interests or POV to something larger....like political principles. Not moral principles, but political ones. The most obvious application of this is in supporting expensive social services as the millennials grow older. How willing will this group be to accept the cost of big government entitlements when they have to raise their own children? Social security depends on their supporting the aging generations through transfer payments. How willing are they to welcome immigrants that compete for jobs and social services their children will need? 45% of millennials voted for Trump, not be cause they like him, but because they recognize his policies will improve the opportunities available to them.

The above comments and The E's justified anger is telling. Particularly since he's in Germany and they are in the USA. That tells me that the generational anger is global. I'll disagree that they are LESS LIKELY than previous generations to subsume their interests to something larger, if that were true of the current Baby Boomers, then we wouldn't be in the fiscal fix we are in. But that also means that the Baby Boomers had better start realizing that the bail out of social security/medicare/pension funds etc may not be coming. If so, people will either have to save their own retirement by pouring money into their 401Ks or work until they are 80.

I also think that they are right to feel betrayed. They've been told their whole lives that if they study hard and work hard that they will be rewarded. Instead they graduated into the worst recession since the Great Depression. I've seen several sociology studies on the fiscal behavior of millennials and as a group they tend to mimic the fiscal behaviors of the Depression generation.

My takeaway from my discussions with my daughters and Zeihan's comments was that conservatives and liberals will less influential moving forward. The millennials will be much more populist in that they will take what works for them and will be much less interested in how it works or which principles these policies follow. Both Democrats and Republicans should recognize that their brands have become devalued. Should Trump be successful in juicing the economy, he will strongly suggest that the establishment pukes of either party are NOT essential to good governance. Outsiders are also viable agents to bring prosperity to the nation. Heck, if an outsider as universally acclaimed for his stupidity as Trump can generate prosperity, then the establishment a$$hats in either party are truly useless.

Trump is an opportunist and he is very talented at it. He identified underserved gaps in the electorate that all of the mainstream politicians ignored and drove through them with a Mack truck. The other politicians (both parties) are behaving idiotically. They are spending so much time on "I HATE TRUMP" 24/7 that they have failed to identify the opportunity he identified. As I've said before, it would be easy for a less obnoxious person to out-Trump Trump. And from The E's comments, it looks like the politicians in Germany are behaving as idiotically as the US ones. So there is a big gap there as well for a Trump type populist candidate (hopefully with a less obnoxious personality for Germany's sake).

I do tend to agree with you and the video that the electorate will be a lot more populist in the future. People are tired of sacrificing for the "greater good" only to find out that the greater good was to benefit the elites at the expense of the rest of us.

I do think that an electorate as insular as millennials are suggesting they can be will also be much less interested in international politics. Between ANWAR and the technological advances around fracking, the US is becoming less dependent on energy and petroleum based chemical feedstock. There are fewer reasons for the US to engage abroad. Combined with increased insularity of the largest voting block, this suggests our elected officials will grow less and less willing to use up political capital to address issues abroad.

Agreed. The era of the USA being the global policeman is over. The rest of the world will have to start defending themselves.

Since our millennials will be the largest consumer market, those leaders will demand and get serious concessions from other nations to access our market.

Only if our leaders can make decent trade agreements. I've been complaining about the trade agreements for years. It's too soon to see if the new administration has sparked a sudden increase in competence among those in charge of negotiations. But the first step is publicly identifying the problem and Trump has done at least that much. So hopefully he or his successor will be able to move to the next step of actually doing something about it.

These suggest the US boom is just beginning.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/germans-fear-huge-loss-of-jobs-from-us-tax-reform-865577?ref=NzgzMjI2&utm_source=outbrain&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=outbrain-retfeb17

http://www.zew.de/en/presse/pressearchiv/deutschland-ist-der-verlierer-der-us-steuerreform/?cHash=75addafc432190cf3c257046de2fb167

Nah. Ireland is eating us all for lunch!

Zeihan's assertion that agriculture will be the one area of US exports that will grow is also interesting. I suspect that the ability for the rest of the world to increase production does depend in the stability in those food producing regions. I sure hope they can fend for themselves, because I tend to agree that Trump's will be the most internationally involved administration for quite some time.

Anyway, thanks for your thoughts.

I'm not sure that he is right about agriculture growing. I tend to agree that agricultural production will fall along with stability in certain world regions. But those regions won't be buying food, they'll be buying weapons for the wars. The only growth market for food I see in that type of situation is charities buying it for refugee camps.

PeterZ wrote:Yup, part of the 45% of millennial a that voted Trump. Captures TDS pretty well, too.

Yep

And the TDS is preventing the opposition from seeing the incredible opportunity they have to out-Trump Trump.