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Labour Loss? UK Election

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Labour Loss? UK Election
Post by Michael Everett   » Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:58 am

Michael Everett
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Teresa May has called for a snap election. The economy is growing faster than the International Monetary Fund thought it was going to, the Project Fear projections have not materialized and Labour is currently undergoing a very nasty (but surprisingly low-key) civil war.

As a side-note, Jeremy Corbyn, while undoubtedly a very nice and principled man who totally believes that his path is the best for the United Kingdom, totally lacks the "Carpe Jugulum" instincts that would have allowed him to capitalize on the (surprisingly few) mis-steps that Tories have made.

So, are Labour about to have another Michael Foot moment?
Early signs say... probably.

So, if Labour collapses, the Tories will romp home. The Lib-Dems will probably regain some of the ground that they lost due to the Coalition Government (when they found themselves in the spotlight and all their dirty laundry got aired) while the SNP will try to claim every single Scottish ward for itself, but the fact that they seem to be losing touch with the public could cause several losses for them. They'll still have many MPs, but maybe not quite as many.

And the other parties?
UKIP is almost dead as it got what it wanted (the UK leaving the moribund and corrupt EU) and is having an existential crisis on the lines of "What do we stand for now?"
Sinn Fein (once known as the IRA Political Wing with quite a bit of truth to the derogatory name) is limited to Norther Ireland, so they won't have that much effect.
Plaid Cymru is similarly limited to Wales.

The real question is... who will form the opposition? Traditionally, it's been Labour when the Tories are in power (and vice-versa) but the Lib-Dems are looking lean and hungry for a return to power. Although it's unlikely that they will take over, they will probably find themselves marching in lockstep to part of the Labour Party (or maybe a totally new version of Labour if the civil war results in a total split...)

The next few weeks will be interesting...
...for us in the UK, anyway. Most of you outside the UK are probably still concentrating on Trump...
~~~~~~

I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber
But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork.

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Re: Labour Loss? UK Election
Post by Daryl   » Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:33 am

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A good government needs a strong opposition to stop hubris, and to ensure that legislation is properly vetted.
The Australian phrase is "To keep the bastards honest".
One avenue we have that you don't is to vote differently in the Senate to the Parliament which inhibits untrammelled power. I suppose the House of Lords will support the Tories?
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Re: Labour Loss? UK Election
Post by Michael Everett   » Fri Apr 21, 2017 3:48 pm

Michael Everett
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Posts: 1997
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Location: Bristol, England

Daryl wrote:I suppose the House of Lords will support the Tories?

:lol:
Right now, the House of Lords is the main opposition to the Tories.
Of course, their current position is not being helped by the constant revelations about the large minority of them who are clocking in and straight out again just to be able to claim the £300 for showing up irregardless of how much work they actually do...
~~~~~~

I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber
But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork.

(Now on Twitter)and mentioned by RFC!
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Re: Labour Loss? UK Election
Post by munroburton   » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:12 am

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Michael Everett wrote:The real question is... who will form the opposition? Traditionally, it's been Labour when the Tories are in power (and vice-versa) but the Lib-Dems are looking lean and hungry for a return to power. Although it's unlikely that they will take over, they will probably find themselves marching in lockstep to part of the Labour Party (or maybe a totally new version of Labour if the civil war results in a total split...)



The answer to that will be broadly similar to what it was after 1997 and 2001. I don't remember Labour having decent opposition back then. Indeed, according to Wikipedia the Blair Government didn't lose a Commons vote until six months after the 2005 election.

The difference is, Blair's majority existed in England, Scotland and Wales simultaneously. His government really did represent the United Kingdom of Great Britain(whenever it wasn't representing the USA).

Theresa May won't be able to claim the same.
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