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When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspiracy?

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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by Dilandu   » Sat Mar 17, 2018 5:29 am

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The E wrote:
Saying "noone in Russia cares" is ... well, bullshit. It's very probably true for the common person on the street. But to extend that to everyone involved in the organizations that would be executing a kill mission is not a jump you can make.


Sigh.

* Skripal was sentenced for 13 years (which is low limit for State Treason according to our law), not for life.

* He spend five years in custody, and if there was real need to get rid of him, it was ten orders of magnitude simple to do while he was in prison.

* And then he was officialy pardoned and exchanged, which clearly demonstrated that his estimated value was considered low enough.

That's the facts that clearly demonstrated that NOBODY even in GRU considered him of any specific value, except as exchange object.

So your conceptions just don't make any sense in close consideration.
------------------------------

- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by The E   » Sat Mar 17, 2018 6:31 am

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Are you claiming insider knowledge of GRU operations? Because, while your assertions are certainly not without merit, they are very much the result of speculation on your part.

See, we kinda know what a western government trying to distract people looks like: It usually involves some form of foreign policy saber rattling about goings-on abroad, or a sudden focus on a domestic issue that everyone is shocked to discover has laid bare for some time, or a crackdown on terrorists or drugs or videogames.

We also know that personal, targeted assassination is something the Putin regime uses; they also seem to have a fondness for attacks carried out using means that can be easily traced back to Russia (see also: The Litvinenko poisoning in 2006).

The killing of a (former) spy doesn't fit the profile for the UK government's approach to domestic pacification and distraction. It does, however, fit into an established track record of Russian intelligence carrying out retaliatory strikes against traitors; carrying out these attacks pour encourager les autres does make sense in this context.

Now, again, I am not saying that your hypothesis is meritless. As always in these matters, we simply do not have enough information or trustworthy sources to make an accurate assessment of our own. So you shouldn't be surprised that we don't just take your word for it; being a russian national doesn't really give you a priviledged position from which to argue your hypothesis in this case. It's your personal perspective on matters, and while appreciated, you, just like the rest of us, are subject to your own cognitive biases and preconceptions.
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by Bluesqueak   » Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:30 am

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Dilandu wrote:
Bluesqueak wrote:
We have no reason, none whatsoever, to release a chemical toxin in the middle of a shopping centre. Further, the (pretty rare) tradition of political assassination in the United Kingdom, whether by MI6 or others, is to attack the person to be assassinated, only. Not their daughter, stray police officers and anyone else who happened to wander past.


Please. If the assasination is supposed to be blamed on other side, it's hard to believe that MI6 would follow standard protocols! The more public backlash the better.
[/quote]

Please. If Ministers of the British government were shown to have released chemical weapons in the middle of the shopping area of a British town, simply to deflect attention from Brexit, that government would be dead, deceased, would be like Cameron's government after the Referendum - gone, out of politics. There would be howls that MI6 is completely out of control, the current head would be fired, there possibly even be would be charges brought.

Actually, there'd be charges brought. Suspecting that MI6 might have killed someone about to reveal state secrets is one thing. Being so fricking clumsy, stupid and incompetent that you release a chemical agent in a populated area to try and kill one person just to deflect from domestic politics is another.

Britain uses assassination so rarely because people like MI6 are trained to lay out the consequences of 'what happens if they find out we did it'. Mostly those consequences are worse than any advantage gained.

Now, consider the consequences of a backlash for the Russian government. Britain is pissed off, but unlikely to start WW3 over an ex-spy. They'll expel some 'diplomats', we'll expel theirs. They'll threaten to freeze assets, we'll threaten to cut off the gas pipelines...

You're talking apples and oranges. This isn't going to bring down the Russian government, is it? Not even if we find 'From Russia With Love' on the bottle of toxin.
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by smr   » Sat Mar 17, 2018 8:27 pm

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Another possiblity is unknown player from a splinter faction(s) of known regimes. What is the goal or what message is trying to be sent. Remember Ian Fleming based some of his fictional novels of James Bond on actual experiences he had while working for the Crown. The search parameters need to be broaden. Maybe, the russians actually did the deed is equally possible.
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:21 am

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So Putin won his rigged election nobody takes seriously... and the president of the United States immediately called him up to congratulate him on successfully undermining democracy in his country. Congratulating authoritarian dictators on successfully dictator-ing apparently being one of Trump's favorite things to do.

Reportedly his national security advisors even gave him a briefing with DO NOT CONGRATULATE in it and he did it anyway. Then went on national television and announced he had done it. Which would be a disgrace even if we weren't also talking about the guy whose country Trump's own intelligence agencies agree was JUST responsible for a nerve agent attack in a civilian area in one of the United States strongest allies. Something that apparently wasn't important enough to come up in that congratulatory call... it probably would have spoiled the happy mood.

Oh, and that whole attacking American elections thing...

But Trump is super excited that he's going to be getting to see Putin in the "not too distant future"... so much so that the told the press it was happening in the "not too distant future" three freaking times in one fairly short press statement just to make sure they got it.
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by Dilandu   » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:18 pm

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Seems that Trump is order of magnitude smarter than his "advisors" - he understood "realpolitik" perfectly, while his advisors dwell in some ideological-based fantasy world. :D
------------------------------

- Who would won in battle between strawman Liberal-Democrat and strawman Conservative-Republican?
- Scarecrow from Oz; he was strawman before it became political.

P.S. - And he have Russian twin, to watch his back)
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by gcomeau   » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:31 pm

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Dilandu wrote:Seems that Trump is order of magnitude smarter than his "advisors" - he understood "realpolitik" perfectly, while his advisors dwell in some ideological-based fantasy world. :D


And nice to have the views of Russia represented in the thread....

:roll:
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by smr   » Thu Mar 22, 2018 6:32 pm

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A little touchy their, still laughing in Texas. (Well it's better than crying about my house after Harvey. Here goes another long weekend of work on the house.)

gcomeau wrote:
Dilandu wrote:Seems that Trump is order of magnitude smarter than his "advisors" - he understood "realpolitik" perfectly, while his advisors dwell in some ideological-based fantasy world. :D


And nice to have the views of Russia represented in the thread....

:roll:
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by gcomeau   » Wed May 16, 2018 12:51 pm

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So that House Intel committee report that said Russia did not try to help Trump win when they interfered in the election, that the Republicans on the committee forced out over the objections of every Democratic member?


The Senate Intel committee just dumped thousands of pages of testimony and also said, essentially, yeah the House statement was wrong, the Russians helped Trump win.


We will now watch Devin Nunes spin and spin and spin as he tries to reframe this entirely predictable embarrassment that is a result of him pressuring the release of a BS report everyone knew was wrong just to suck up to his idol in the White House.
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Re: When do we just call the Russia thing a criminal conspir
Post by Annachie   » Fri May 18, 2018 5:18 am

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Given that Rudi just admitted that the Trump campaign was colluding with the Russians, I think we can now.
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