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What has Trump done right so far?

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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:15 pm

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PeterZ wrote:
gcomeau wrote:
The red parts are projections. And I stated those projections were later downward revised slightly.


The blue part where the deficit NOSEDIVES to 10% of GDP is THE REAL DAMN NUMBERS as of Obama taking office.


Even the chart has the shaded section labeled as PROJECTED. Just to the right of the "Bush leaves White House" arrow.


See where I said "the red parts are projections"?

Where are the red parts Peter? Oh look, to the right of the "Bush Leaves Office" arrow!

So why are you telling me what I just said as if I didn't know it?


Below is the actual deficits. With the exception of 2015, President Obama had greater deficits than Bush is every year other than that 2009 Porkulus.


FFS, how do you keep repating this without understanding it? EVERY PRESIDENT uses the deficit handed to them by their predecessor as their starting baseline. That is what they get to work from.


You can keep calling it "the porkulus" all you want it was still WHAT OBAMA GOT HANDED BY BUSH.


The measure from there is did he increase the deficit or decrease it? And he decreased it A LOT.

You chart projects a deficit of $769bn in 2012. That's 5% of GDP and a GDP of $15.38tr. As you can see the actual numbers came in much higher; $1.087tr. That's a 41% miss from what was projected on your chart.


Let me once again refer you back to "things I already said"...

"And I specifically stated in my post that Obama's stimulus moved them slightly more negative after that. (Something else that moved them more negative? Revisions to economic numbers from the end of Calendar 2008 showing the economy was plummeting significantly faster than was thought at the time)"


I know the projections were low just as well as you do.

I know WHY they were low clearly better than you do.

And neither of those things changes that Bush ran the deficit up in the first damn place which was THE POINT of all this.


So, yeah, relying on projections IS fake news.

https://www.thebalance.com/deficit-by-president-what-budget-deficits-hide-3306151

President Barack Obama: Total Projected Plus Actual Deficits = $6.575 trillion, a 56 percent increase.
FY 2017 - $441 billion projected.
FY 2016 - $600 billion expected.
FY 2015 - $438 billion.
FY 2014 - $485 billion.
FY 2013 - $679 billion.
FY 2012 - $1.087 trillion.
FY 2011 - $1.300 trillion.
FY 2010 - $1.547 ($1.294 trillion plus $253 billion from the Obama Stimulus Act that was attached to the FY 2009 budget).

President George W. Bush: Total = $3.293 trillion, a 57 percent increase.
FY 2009 - $1.16 trillion. ($1.413 trillion minus $253 billion from Obama's Stimulus Act)
FY 2008 - $459 billion.
FY 2007 - $161 billion.
FY 2006 - $248 billion.
FY 2005 - $318 billion.
FY 2004 - $413 billion.
FY 2003 - $378 billion.
FY 2002 - $158 billion.


Yeah! Bush starts with an itty bitty little deficit and turns it into a great big fucking giant deficit.


Obama starts with a great big freaking giant deficit and reduces it back down to a moderate deficit.


Which is exactly what you have been getting told while you keep trying to claim Obama was the worst thing to ever happen to a deficit. So um, thanks for pointing out I'm right?
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by Joat42   » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:44 pm

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Why do I get a feeling that some people just doesn't understand basic economics and book keeping...

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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by Tenshinai   » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:36 pm

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Joat42 wrote:Why do I get a feeling that some people just doesn't understand basic economics and book keeping...


Because they dont?
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by Annachie   » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:17 am

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Well it seems that he hasn't boasted about the Presidential time machine.

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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by Michael Everett   » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:38 am

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Location: Bristol, England

That entire conversation reminded me of the Microfleems conversation from Dilbert.

Apparently 20% of Microfleems are subradiant.

Gotta love Pointy Haired Boss moments...
~~~~~~

I can't write anywhere near as well as Weber
But I try nonetheless, And even do my own artwork.

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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by PeterZ   » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:12 am

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gcomeau wrote:
Yeah! Bush starts with an itty bitty little deficit and turns it into a great big fucking giant deficit.


Obama starts with a great big freaking giant deficit and reduces it back down to a moderate deficit.


Which is exactly what you have been getting told while you keep trying to claim Obama was the worst thing to ever happen to a deficit. So um, thanks for pointing out I'm right?


Yes, Bush started it with Porkulus. Obama followed suit. The useless stimulus was a bad idea under Bush and was still a bad idea when Obama doubled down. They both generated similar economic growth numbers with Bush slightly worse. My point was that Obama didn't do anything different than Bush, yet you acted like his stimulus was the best thing since the New Deal. It wasn't. It was the second worst recovery since the Great Depression. Only Bush was worse. That's a great comparison to hold Obama the Great and Powerful up against.

That second chart was a projection for all Obama years since the article was written in 2009. Those projections were way off from actuals.
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by gcomeau   » Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:58 am

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PeterZ wrote:
gcomeau wrote:
Yeah! Bush starts with an itty bitty little deficit and turns it into a great big fucking giant deficit.


Obama starts with a great big freaking giant deficit and reduces it back down to a moderate deficit.


Which is exactly what you have been getting told while you keep trying to claim Obama was the worst thing to ever happen to a deficit. So um, thanks for pointing out I'm right?


Yes, Bush started it with Porkulus. Obama followed suit.


Only if "following suit" means "reduce by 1 TRILLION dollars over the course of his presidency".


That is not however the definition of "following suit" that I am familiar with.


The useless stimulus was a bad idea under Bush and was still a bad idea when Obama doubled down.



Your claim it was useless would be more convincing if you had the data to back it up.


CBO Impact Analysis:


https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files ... 5-arra.pdf

"Estimating the law’s overall effects on employment
requires a more comprehensive analysis than can be
achieved by using the recipients’ reports. Therefore, looking
at recorded spending to date along with estimates of
the other effects of ARRA on spending and revenues,
CBO has estimated the law’s impact on employment
and economic output using evidence about the effects
of previous similar policies and drawing on various
mathematical models that represent the workings of the economy.
On that basis, CBO estimates that ARRA’s policies
had the following effects in the first quarter of calendar
year 2011:

They raised real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic
product (GDP) by between 1.1 percent and
3.1 percent,

Lowered the unemployment rate by between
0.6 percentage points and 1.8 percentage points,

Increased the number of people employed by between
1.2 million and 3.3 million, and

Increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs
by 1.6 million to 4.6 million compared with what
would have occurred otherwise,
as shown in Table 1.
(Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time
to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally
larger than increases in the number of employed
workers.)
The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half of
2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates. The
effects of ARRA on employment and unemployment are
estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output;
CBO estimates that the employment effects began to
wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so in the
first quarter of 2011.
"


National Bureau of Economic Research analysis:

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16759.pdf


"V. Conclusion
This paper analyzed the employment impacts of fiscal stimulus spending, using state-level data from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) enacted in February 2009, and instrumenting for actual ARRA spending using pre-ARRA factors that went into the ARRA’s allocation formulas. Cross-state IV results indicate that ARRA spending had a positive and statistically significant impact on total nonfarm employment at the one-year mark after the legislation was enacted. It also had a positive and significant impact on employment in the subsectors of state and local government, construction, manufacturing and, depending on which measure of stimulus spending one uses, the education and health sectors. Further analyses show that ARRA spending began having a statistically significant effect on total employment around July or August of 2009, but not before. Moreover, there is no evidence of correlation between employment changes and predicted ARRA spending, conditional on controls, in months prior to the ARRA’s enactment.

Based on my preferred measure of spending, announced funds, the results imply that its first year ARRA spending yielded about eight jobs per million dollars spent, or about $125,000 per job. Extrapolating from that marginal local effect to the national level, the estimates imply ARRA spending created or saved about 2.1 million jobs, or 1.6 percent of pre-ARRA total nonfarm employment, in that first year. The estimated employment effect is estimated to have grown further over time, reaching 3.4 million (based on announced funds) by March 2011. The estimates are moderately larger if one measures ARRA spending by obligated funds or actual outlays. Despite the use of a very different methodology, these estimates are in line with the range of estimates of the ARRA’s impact generated by studies using the macroeconometric modeling approach
"






They both generated similar economic growth numbers with Bush slightly worse.



Are you just playing at being this obtuse deliberately now?


Yes, Bush inherited a healthy economy and a balanced budget, Obama inherited the leading edge of the single worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression and over a Trillion dollars of annual debt and they both generated similar growth numbers.


Which is like saying runner A was running on a well maintained track and runner B was running through foot deep mud and they both finished the hundred meters in about the same time. So they're pretty evenly matched as runners!


Gah....
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by CRC   » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:33 am

CRC
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Posts: 126
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:45 am

gcomeau wrote:

Would you like to lay any other failed "traps" based on not understanding your own country's budget history now?


Well, no one is perfect, but apparently you should fact check your tirades before you parade your ignorance before the public.

You see, I did not even mention the stimulus package. I specifically mentioned only the two BUDGET bills OBAMA signed in 2009.

Obama actually signed THREE spending bills in 2009.

1 - The $800B+ stimulus bill in February 2009
2 - The FY2009 Omnibus Bill in March 2009
3 - A supplemental appropriations bill in June 2009

Yes, I understand the need to blame it all on Bush, or the Russians, but you see, while I blame part of the Obama debt on Bush, you want to parade the unreasonableness of your position by blaming it all on Bush and absolving Obama of any responsibility for any of the debt.

And you do it in such a vulgar and condescending manner.

You just continue to make my point for me.

Please - continue.


The omnibus budget in
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by CRC   » Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:42 am

CRC
Lieutenant Commander

Posts: 126
Joined: Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:45 am

Annachie wrote:CRC, would that progressive utopia have anything to do with 32 years of GOP governors in the last 50?

That progressive utopia?

Come to think of it, 25 years ago was a GOP Govenor.

So, what, Pres. Reagan was too progressive for you? Is that how far left you have to be to be a leftie?
Pete Wilson too left? (He was govenor in '92)
Says a lot more about you than California.

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Not sure which comment prompted this, but since you brought it up...

Actually I voted with my feet on the subject of California when I left it in 1991. Never looked back. Always admired CA roads, the aqueduct infrastructure, hydro power, etc. All done by democrats (Brown Sr actually.)

But the wheels have come off. Just got back from the Bay area, and the roads suck, the traffic is worst than ever, they quit building dams (and then complain about the lack of water), the dams that are there have a lot of issues, Oakland and SF are full of homeless camps, beggars and panhandlers are everywhere, prices are ridiculous, taxes are through the roof, and its just downright dirty in most places.

Not even a nice place to visit anymore...
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by gcomeau   » Fri Mar 17, 2017 11:32 am

gcomeau
Commodore

Posts: 908
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:24 pm

CRC wrote:
gcomeau wrote:

Would you like to lay any other failed "traps" based on not understanding your own country's budget history now?


Well, no one is perfect, but apparently you should fact check your tirades before you parade your ignorance before the public.


I generally do. And my facts weren't wrong... so...

You see, I did not even mention the stimulus package. I specifically mentioned only the two BUDGET bills OBAMA signed in 2009.

Obama actually signed THREE spending bills in 2009.

1 - The $800B+ stimulus bill in February 2009
2 - The FY2009 Omnibus Bill in March 2009
3 - A supplemental appropriations bill in June 2009


Yeah, we're really going to have to do this again aren't we?

Like I already told you once. Signing the bills in a certain year doesn't make the money they call to be spent get spent IN that budget year. The majority of the spending from those bills you just listed occurred in the NEXT fiscal year and that spending therefore goes on the NEXT fiscal year's budget. Not 2009's. As I already told you a small portion of those bills spending occurred in FY2009, and that spending increased the deficit a marginal amount for that year. But Bush had ALREADY run that deficit up well north of a Trillion dollars before Obama even set foot in the White House. What part of this are you having such difficulty following?

And you do also realize that a huge chunk of the debt for the next many years was not spending driven, but revenue driven due to the collapse of the economy.... right? And who was presiding over the economic collapse?

Yes, I understand the need to blame it all on Bush, or the Russians, but you see, while I blame part of the Obama debt on Bush, you want to parade the unreasonableness of your position by blaming it all on Bush and absolving Obama of any responsibility for any of the debt.

And you do it in such a vulgar and condescending manner.


Yes well, if you weren't taunting people for falling into your "trap" when you don't know what you're talking about AND when you deleted the part of their post where they stated the thing you claimed they didn't know you wouldn't earn the condescension.
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