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What has Trump done right so far?

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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by gcomeau   » Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:24 pm

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PeterZ wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-09-06/how-obama-s-economic-record-stacks-up

Using Bloomberg here so not to rely on overly conservative judgements. 4th worst GDP growth rate in his tenure. At 2.1% it's below the post war average of 2.9%. That stifling. Had he generated average growth, he would have had a smaller increase in debt or aggregate annual deficits if you prefer. The stock market was impressive under Obama but given the GDP growth of his tenure, one can easily argue that monetization of the debt drove stock prices through expansion of the money supply.


You may have wanted to read that article all the way to the end before using it to support your claim.


First of all, it gave Obama a positive score.

Second of all, it states the reasons WHY his positive score was not higher and they mostly don't have a damn thing to do with economic policy but rather with global economic conditions that resulted from the fallout from the Great Recession that were a significant drag on economic performace.

Obama and the U.S. have not gotten much of a boost from the global economy, either. The global growth rate has hovered around 2 percent to 2.5 percent, well below the global growth rate during the Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush administrations.

What is the takeaway then on Obama’s economic performance? When you take the slow global growth and domestic consumers’ retrenchment on debt into account, the record emerging from his rather calm and cautious approach is one to build on, not one to be cast aside.



So you just cited an article that said Obama was pretty damn good on economic performance to try to support a claim he stifled economic performance. Nice work.
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by PeterZ   » Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:38 pm

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I did read and yes, Obama got a positive score. My entire point was that his GDP numbers classified as stifled the economy. The massive liquidity levels did inflate the stock market. Janet Yellen is about to contract that liquidity. Thank God! I will grant that had regulations allowed more economic activity at the mainstreet level, inflation would have been painful. So now that those regulations are expected to be dropped, we can expect the velocity of money to pick up and offset the reduced money supply.

I hope Yellen acts as Volker acted for Reagan.
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by Annachie   » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:19 pm

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So you'd go with a democrat president then Peter?
After all, by your own yard stick the best 5 of the last 12 were dems.
For that matter the 2 republicans at 6 and 7 are much closer to Obama's performance at 8 than to Clinton's at 5.

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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by gcomeau   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:12 am

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PeterZ wrote:I did read and yes, Obama got a positive score. My entire point was that his GDP numbers classified as stifled the economy.


Your own article attributes those steadily positive but only lower than average GDP growth rates primarily to global economic conditions caused by the Great Recession that exploded in everyone's face at the end of Bush's term and presented a significant drag on the US economy.

Not to Obama's economic policy performance, which it explicitly calls out as solid ground to build on. Kind of the opposite of stifling.


So to point this out again... your own article contradicts your claim.
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by PeterZ   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:24 am

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Annachie wrote:So you'd go with a democrat president then Peter?
After all, by your own yard stick the best 5 of the last 12 were dems.
For that matter the 2 republicans at 6 and 7 are much closer to Obama's performance at 8 than to Clinton's at 5.

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Had there been one who would have stimulated the economy and held down spending, sure! Unfortunately, that option wasn't available. I vote Republican because the approximate by views better than Democrats.
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by PeterZ   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:36 am

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gcomeau wrote:
PeterZ wrote:I did read and yes, Obama got a positive score. My entire point was that his GDP numbers classified as stifled the economy.


Your own article attributes those steadily positive but only lower than average GDP growth rates primarily to global economic conditions caused by the Great Recession that exploded in everyone's face at the end of Bush's term and presented a significant drag on the US economy.

Not to Obama's economic policy performance, which it explicitly calls out as solid ground to build on. Kind of the opposite of stifling.


So to point this out again... your own article contradicts your claim.


I disagree with the article's conclusion,. Obviously. I used it for the stats. Both Obama and GWB had awful GDP growth rates stemming from a financial crisis early in their presidencies. They both increased the debt massively. Obama increased it more even with a higher average GDP growth rate and the hot war pretty much done.

The net impact of the Obama policies is more debt piled on and a lower worker participation rate than we've had in decades. No, I do not want to repeat Obamanomics.
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by gcomeau   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:59 am

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PeterZ wrote:
Annachie wrote:So you'd go with a democrat president then Peter?
After all, by your own yard stick the best 5 of the last 12 were dems.
For that matter the 2 republicans at 6 and 7 are much closer to Obama's performance at 8 than to Clinton's at 5.

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Had there been one who would have stimulated the economy and held down spending, sure! Unfortunately, that option wasn't available.


Yeah because the guy who spent the last 8 years doing that while you guys berated him for it couldn't run for a third term...


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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by Annachie   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 1:12 am

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Do you have any idea what the worker participation rate actually means?

Firstly, somewhere over half the decline, for both Pres. Bush jnr and Pres. Obama is baby boomers dropping out of the workforce due to age.

Some is people staying longer in school.

But honestly, this time next year you're going to ignore this statistic anyway.

The retiring baby boomers will keep driving it lower, unless increases in minimum retirement age are signed into law like they are trying down here in Oz.



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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by biochem   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 10:40 am

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Workforce participation rate males (to exclude mommy wars effects) age 24-54 to exclude retirement and students

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
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Re: What has Trump done right so far?
Post by PeterZ   » Sat Mar 04, 2017 12:30 pm

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biochem wrote:Workforce participation rate males (to exclude mommy wars effects) age 24-54 to exclude retirement and students

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061


The good news is that our mellenials are just entering the workforce. If deregulation makes it easier for mellenials to find jobs, the workforce increases and more of them work to support the retiring Boomers.
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