EXTRY! EXTRY! IMPEACHMENT IMMINENT!

smr wrote:Well, this individual just got back from the family financial advisor's office. Last year, I made just slightly less than 25% on my Roth IRA and mutural funds. (24.86%) If I am a typical investor that has made between 15% to 25%. Well, I guess that means Trump is getting reelected. People vote with their checkbooks. I chose the lessor of 2 evils and now I thankful for voting for Trump. Here'e to Trump and may he be reelected in 2020. I think impeach Trump and collusion is going nowhere.

If that whole crap about "people vote with their wallets" was true, then the fact that real wages have started stagnating or even falling again is bad news for Trump, isn't it.

Also, initiating massive trade wars with China, the EU, Canada and Mexico does not really suggest a future to me where that is likely to change.

The average voter is now behind Trump and I don't believe their going to abandon him anytime soon.

Gonna check the approval rating real quick here, yeah, still at over 50% disapproval. Trump is historically unpopular; if the "average voter" is behind him, they have a really weird way of expressing that sentiment.

I will now predict that smr will either a) ignore this post, b) decry it as fake news in one way or another, or c) drag out another ad hominem against me. What he will not do is actually looking up hard data by himself; As a typical member of the Trump cult (yeah, that's a thing), ackknowledging that his personal experience is perhaps not a universal one is beyond him.

I called my shot aboty 6-9 months ago. Time will tell whether I am whistling in dark or if my premise is correct. I have predicted a republican win in the off term elections. Now, call your shot and put your predictions down on record. Remember, there was no way for Trump to win the Presidency according to the polls. Enough said on that issue. Oh wait he colluded with Russia to win the election! Hopefully in 6 months, I will be laughing down here in Texas about my off-term election prediction or their is going to be egg on my face. The Democrats have lost their way as a party. What do they espouse other than resist Trump as a campaign message. Do they offer hope and prosperity? Biden seems the only sane Democrat around. I am just regurgitating what he has espoused. Trump seems to offer hope to many Americans.

The E wrote:

smr wrote:Well, this individual just got back from the family financial advisor's office. Last year, I made just slightly less than 25% on my Roth IRA and mutural funds. (24.86%) If I am a typical investor that has made between 15% to 25%. Well, I guess that means Trump is getting reelected. People vote with their checkbooks. I chose the lessor of 2 evils and now I thankful for voting for Trump. Here'e to Trump and may he be reelected in 2020. I think impeach Trump and collusion is going nowhere.

If that whole crap about "people vote with their wallets" was true, then the fact that real wages have started stagnating or even falling again is bad news for Trump, isn't it.

Also, initiating massive trade wars with China, the EU, Canada and Mexico does not really suggest a future to me where that is likely to change.

The average voter is now behind Trump and I don't believe their going to abandon him anytime soon.

Gonna check the approval rating real quick here, yeah, still at over 50% disapproval. Trump is historically unpopular; if the "average voter" is behind him, they have a really weird way of expressing that sentiment.

I will now predict that smr will either a) ignore this post, b) decry it as fake news in one way or another, or c) drag out another ad hominem against me. What he will not do is actually looking up hard data by himself; As a typical member of the Trump cult (yeah, that's a thing), ackknowledging that his personal experience is perhaps not a universal one is beyond him.

smr wrote:I called my shot aboty 6-9 months ago. Time will tell whether I am whistling in dark or if my premise is correct. I have predicted a republican win in the off term elections. Now, call your shot and put your predictions down on record. Remember, there was no way for Trump to win the Presidency according to the polls. Enough said on that issue.

Indeed. That enough being "smr can't read polling data"

The final polling leading into the election put Trump at about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. That's barely a long shot let alone "No way to win".

I just laughed at Revisitionist history. So call the prediction for Trump being reelected or going to jail and also call the 2018 election for Congress. (Republicans or Democrats Win).

gcomeau wrote:

smr wrote:I called my shot aboty 6-9 months ago. Time will tell whether I am whistling in dark or if my premise is correct. I have predicted a republican win in the off term elections. Now, call your shot and put your predictions down on record. Remember, there was no way for Trump to win the Presidency according to the polls. Enough said on that issue.

Indeed. That enough being "smr can't read polling data"

The final polling leading into the election put Trump at about a 1 in 3 chance of winning. That's barely a long shot let alone "No way to win".

smr wrote:I just laughed at Revisitionist history.

The final polls based projection right before election night at 538 had Trump just below a 30% chance of winning.


Go look it up yourself genius.

smr wrote:I called my shot aboty 6-9 months ago. Time will tell whether I am whistling in dark or if my premise is correct. I have predicted a republican win in the off term elections. Now, call your shot and put your predictions down on record. Remember, there was no way for Trump to win the Presidency according to the polls. Enough said on that issue. Oh wait he colluded with Russia to win the election! Hopefully in 6 months, I will be laughing down here in Texas about my off-term election prediction or their is going to be egg on my face. The Democrats have lost their way as a party. What do they espouse other than resist Trump as a campaign message. Do they offer hope and prosperity? Biden seems the only sane Democrat around. I am just regurgitating what he has espoused. Trump seems to offer hope to many Americans.

Oh, something I didn't predict: smr not even bothering to address any of the points I make (see also my previous post in this thread addressing him directly, which I'm going to assume he has no response to either), but rather trying to go off on a tangent regarding how polling data is wrong (although, come to think of it, that does fit my prediction b).

Trump won the election despite losing the vote by over 2 million votes; That this doesn't strike you as extremely weird and perhaps something you'd want to take a look at doesn't say a whole lot of good things about you, smr.

The preelection polls, such as they were, were correct: Trump had no chance of winning. It was only due to some really weird quirks of the american election system that he did; I am pretty sure that if the situation were reversed (i.e. Hillary Clinton losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college), you'd be up on the walls protesting this historical injustice at the top of your lungs.

As for the Democrats having lost their way: No, they haven't. They just haven't found a replacement figurehead yet. Their political line is still intact; unlike the Republicans, they didn't have to compromise their core policies one bit in the last elections.

Oh, and you want us to call shots? Sure, here you go: The Democrats will secure a comfortable majority in Congress over the next few elections while the Trump White House will continue to be an unmitigated garbage fire.
You see, smr, in a situation like this, all the Democrats have to do is what good conservatives should always do: Take a good look at what the government is doing and, if necessary, raise objections. Once Trump loses Congress, we'll see how well he deals with a situation that Obama handled rather gracefully.

To state the blatantly obvious- Trump is the fifth President to lose the popular vote but win the election. There's nothing odd about it; Presidential elections are set up in such a way that the big, populous states don't overwhelm the smaller, more rural ones.

In this case, enough of the smaller, rural states were Trumpist to win over the big metro states.

You can see a similar effect in reverse with the UK's Brexit, which was rather unusually run as a straight one person one vote referendum. The popular vote was a narrow, 52% win for Brexit.

Had the vote been run on the normal constituency lines, with MPs instructed to vote as delegates according to the result in their constituencies, Brexit would have had been a landslide. It was the larger metropolitan areas that voted overwhelmingly to Remain.

Incidentally, Brexit is an excellent demonstration that people don't always vote with their pocketbooks. The Remain campaign went very strongly for the 'pocketbook' side of things - and lost.

Bluesqueak.

Strangely, it was the leave side that was making outlandish promises about how much more money there'd be once Britain left.

Promises that even the pro Brexit politicians now admit were crap.

Annachie wrote:Bluesqueak.

Strangely, it was the leave side that was making outlandish promises about how much more money there'd be once Britain left.

Promises that even the pro Brexit politicians were crap.

Indeed, they kept driving around a giant bus with claims that Brexit would save the UK 350 million pounds a week. A claim that was known to be absolute ridiculous BS even by the people making it... but it no doubt swayed some ignoramuses.

gcomeau wrote: Indeed, they kept driving around a giant bus with claims that Brexit would save the UK 350 million pounds a week. A claim that was known to be absolute ridiculous BS even by the people making it... but it no doubt swayed some ignoramuses.

OMG, we're not the only county whose population is 52% village idiots?