UK Politics: Labour Is In Trouble

The Labour Party leadership election is over with Jeremy Corbyn winning in the first round with over 60% of the 400K+ votes cast.

But what does this mean for Labour?

Corbyn is a renowned left-wing politician who has served in the House of Commons for 32 years (and in politics for over 40), but never in any position other than the backbenches. He has railed against almost every single Labour leader at one point or another, thus showing a distinct preference for ideological purity over party loyalty.

Although he is a staunch left-winger, controversy has marked his career. He has made statements which seem to place the British Army on a lower level of morality than the terrorists calling themselves the Irish Republican Army, he has called for all of the UK's nuclear weapons to be scrapped and once invited representatives of Hamas and Hezbollah to parliament.
He also cannot conceive of any reason to deploy the UK army outside British territory (Not making this up, he actually said it himself).

What does this mean for Labour?

Well, since Labour has lurched to the left after the record-breaking string of election victories under Tony Blair, they can be expected to increase that slide. It is noteworthy that Labour's left-wing lurch was a more than small influence on the Tories victory in the last election, going from a Conservative/Lib-Dem government to a pure Conservative government with Lib-Dem losing a large number of seats thanks to being in the spotlight and thus having all their flaws exposed and the SNP destroying Labour Scotland, costing Labour over 40 seats in that area alone.

Now, Labour are going even further to the left, to the point where they almost seem to be recreating the political platform that Michael Foot stood on, a platform that had a manifesto described (with a significant degree of accuracy) as "The longest political suicide note in history".

The more Labour shifts to the left, the further away they will move from the political region that the majority of people feel comfortable with.

Yes, Corbyn is an amazing politician, one with principles so firm that you could use them as anti-nuke armor plating.
But would he make a good leader? One who can win elections?




...probably not...

Michael Everett wrote:Well, since Labour has lurched to the left after the record-breaking string of election victories under Tony Blair, they can be expected to increase that slide.

Are you referring to Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband's tenures? Because I'm racking my brain to think of anything remotely left-wing they did or promised to do. Overall voter turnout dropped(as did Labour's majority) from 1997 until 2010.

The overall perception was they were basically Tory-lite, having spent the Blair years constantly moving to the right as the centre ground shrank and shrank. You can only move towards the centre so long before you merge with the opponent!

The problem in 2015's General Election was that Labour wasn't left enough. They couldn't offer anything tangible that would set them apart from the Tories and had conceded responsibility by accepting their overspending caused the financial crisis - when in fact, it was the bankers, at a time when the Conservative party was calling for even less regulation. Miliband was also about as charismatic as warm cheese on soggy bread, which didn't help.

The current problem - Corbyn's problem - is the Labour Parlimentary Party, his fellow MPs in the House of Commons. Only about 25 of them voted for Corbyn, the rest choosing one of the defeated candidates. Many of them are in reality right-wingers and are desperately uncomfortable with their new leader. It will be a miracle if Corbyn survives to 2020 without his back becoming a pincushion. Or sieve.

But if he does manage to hang on that long? I think a lot more people will reconsider the possibilities. If Labour successfully grabs even a fraction of the vast non-voting pool(15 million strong - and only 10 million voted for the Cons in May), they don't need the floaters between them and the Conservatives.

Mind you, I'm not overly pleased. I think, of the four candidates, Corbyn is best able to recapture Labour's lost Scottish voters and thus strengthen the Union. But as long as I'm stuck with it, it's pleasing to see a genuine choice appear. Option 1 or 2, not option 1a or 1b. Too bad it's a long five years until the electorate can decide again.

Sturgeon has spoken (well tweeted):

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/642662844425732097

Officially:

We congratulate Jeremy Corbyn on his victory and hope that we can work constructively with him in a progressive alliance against Tory austerity. We also call on him to give an early commitment that Labour MPs will join the SNP in voting against the £100 billion renewal of Trident.
However, the reality today is that at a time when the country needs strong opposition to the Tories, Jeremy Corbyn leads a deeply, and very bitterly, divided party. Indeed, if Labour cannot quickly demonstrate that they have a credible chance of winning the next UK general election, many more people in Scotland are likely to conclude that independence is the only alternative to continued Tory government.
In the meantime, it is clearer than ever that the only credible and united opposition to the Tories, north and south of the border, is the SNP.

In reality, I'd say that the SNP have little, really, to fear from Corbyn. I think it's very unlikely that those former Labour supporters in Scotland who moved to the SNP will go back.

A Corbyn led Labour will be, from a Scottish perspective, a curious mix of not left wing enough for the former heartlands, but too left wing for the main body of Scottish public opinion. You also have to add in:

1. If he lasts to 2020, it'll be a surprise. If he does, middle England won't be voting for him.

2. The Scottish Branch of the party is still Blairite and decidedly full of useless also-ran second or third raters. Not worth voting for, in fact.

Now, if we could get a decent, indigenous, Centrist party in Scotland as a decent opposition to the SNP, that would be very nice.

As an aside, I think a Corbyn government would be the best bet England has of getting it's own devolved parliament.

Not that Nationalists on either side of the border ( ) particularly want that as a federal structure would give a better chance of England and Scotland staying together within the UK!

Mike.

Small edit to clarify my last sentence!

There is a possibility that it might be good for Labor in the long run (assuming the party survives as an intact entity long enough for there to be a long run!). They've obviously been ignoring their supporters. Unless the party disintegrates, the establishment types will eventually win back control from the extremists. Hopefully they will pay attention to this lesson and pay attention to their supporters! So eventually you may have a fully functional Labor party which pays attention to its supporters.

He has railed against almost every single Labour leader at one point or another, thus showing a distinct preference for ideological purity over party loyalty.

You say that as if it was a bad thing...
And "ideological purity" is probably more than a little exaggeration.

Although he is a staunch left-winger, controversy has marked his career. He has made statements which seem to place the British Army on a lower level of morality than the terrorists calling themselves the Irish Republican Army

I don´t know any of the specifics for him, but i do know the UK has done enough "stupid idea" in that regard to give plenty of well justified "munition" of that kind.

So unless he´s just talking weird garbage, no surprise. Depending on how he takes it with him, it could be either good or bad.

and once invited representatives of Hamas and Hezbollah to parliament.

And that is bad why exactly?
Personally i think it was pathetic after all the talk about how things would get better after elections, and then when Hamas scored big, suddenly all promises faded to dust.

And hezbollah exists for a 100% valid reason. Until Israel realises that they´re not the only ones with rights, hezbollah might end up irrelevant, i´m definitely not holding my breath for that to happen.

He also cannot conceive of any reason to deploy the UK army outside British territory (Not making this up, he actually said it himself).

Well, that depends on context, if he just said it straight without exceptions, he will have trouble for that one.

Now, Labour are going even further to the left, to the point where they almost seem to be recreating the political platform that Michael Foot stood on, a platform that had a manifesto described (with a significant degree of accuracy) as "The longest political suicide note in history".

The more Labour shifts to the left, the further away they will move from the political region that the majority of people feel comfortable with.

Really? Or is that how the "other side", commonly fronted by Murdoch´s neo-con media empire wants you to think?

Staying in the middle also means staying gray and not really mean much, just administrate the status quo.

The curse of politics today is often that it relies too much on the same kind of people who fails to predict the economy. The people who tries to categorise people neatly and very specifically.

Despite people being far more complex.

No, it will depend on HOW he states what he wants to do and whether he is brave enough to come up with a good enough plan for making it work.

As an aside example i can mention how the socialdemocrats here in the last election lost a fair number of votes because they didn´t outright state how they would pay for stated changes, and because those stated were too "meek". Because they didn´t want to upset the people bribed by tax deductions the rightwing idiots added during their reign of waste.

Yes, Corbyn is an amazing politician, one with principles so firm that you could use them as anti-nuke armor plating.
But would he make a good leader? One who can win elections?




...probably not...

I don´t have enough knowledge about him, but he might surprise you.

IF, that is, he is allowed to do so by the almighty Murdochmedia.




#####

The overall perception was they were basically Tory-lite, having spent the Blair years constantly moving to the right as the centre ground shrank and shrank. You can only move towards the centre so long before you merge with the opponent!

Indeed!

Mind you, I'm not overly pleased. I think, of the four candidates, Corbyn is best able to recapture Labour's lost Scottish voters and thus strengthen the Union. But as long as I'm stuck with it, it's pleasing to see a genuine choice appear. Option 1 or 2, not option 1a or 1b. Too bad it's a long five years until the electorate can decide again.

Hear hear...

As an aside Australia's Labor party may be in trouble. They were set for a walk in victory at the next election, as the current conservative PM was loathed by most of the electorate because of his tea party type views. He has just now been rolled by a moderate conservative in a party room spill, so we will have a new PM in the next day or so.

Our Labor (spelt differently to the UK) may have to move to the left to differentiate themselves from a more moderate centrist conservative government.

munroburton wrote:Mind you, I'm not overly pleased. I think, of the four candidates, Corbyn is best able to recapture Labour's lost Scottish voters and thus strengthen the Union. But as long as I'm stuck with it, it's pleasing to see a genuine choice appear. Option 1 or 2, not option 1a or 1b. Too bad it's a long five years until the electorate can decide again.

Remember, MB, we've the Scottish Parliamentary elections next year. It'll be interesting to see if the "Corbyn Effect" will help Scottish Labour. SLAB may get second party again, but how many of it's MSP's will be constituency and how many will be regional list is a good question. I'm expecting them to get thumped again, based on what's been happening to their vote share at the recent spate of council by-elections.

Mike.

biochem wrote:There is a possibility that it might be good for Labor in the long run (assuming the party survives as an intact entity long enough for there to be a long run!). They've obviously been ignoring their supporters. Unless the party disintegrates, the establishment types will eventually win back control from the extremists. Hopefully they will pay attention to this lesson and pay attention to their supporters! So eventually you may have a fully functional Labor party which pays attention to its supporters.

As Michael alludes, it may be bad for them too. If they swing too far to the left, they risk loosing "Floating Voters" in the English marginal constituencies.

As a general rule of thumb, up until now Labour ( ) has been able to boost it's numbers in the House of Commons by being able to garner votes in Scotland, much to the resentment of English conservatives and nationalists, particularly after devolution (the West Lothian Question etc). That avenue is now effectively closed to them due to the collapse of the Scottish branch of the party. Labour can get a majority in England alone, but it's much more difficult for them, particularly on a leftist platform like Corbyn's.

In contrast, the Conservatives don't need Scotland to get a majority in the House of Commons as they're power base is in the heavily populated south of England, which tends to be naturally Conservative in outlook.

Mike.

Michael Riddell wrote:

munroburton wrote:Mind you, I'm not overly pleased. I think, of the four candidates, Corbyn is best able to recapture Labour's lost Scottish voters and thus strengthen the Union. But as long as I'm stuck with it, it's pleasing to see a genuine choice appear. Option 1 or 2, not option 1a or 1b. Too bad it's a long five years until the electorate can decide again.

Remember, MB, we've the Scottish Parliamentary elections next year. It'll be interesting to see if the "Corbyn Effect" will help Scottish Labour. SLAB may get second party again, but how many of it's MSP's will be constituency and how many will be regional list is a good question. I'm expecting them to get thumped again, based on what's been happening to their vote share at the recent spate of council by-elections.

Mike.

Aye, but it's not like the Scottish electorate is representative of the UK's. Difficult to assess any national swing from Tory to Labour, for one.

One thing's for sure - watching a Scottish Labour party to the right of the national Labour party is going to be interesting. Can't wait until they finally announce who gets the top two or three spots in their List queues.

Well, well. It's starting to look like the SNP MPs may provide better support to Corbyn than quite a few of his Labour backbenchers.

In other news, one of the hereditary Lords of the Conservative party has retired, opening a vacancy in the House of Lords. The 9th Duke of Wellington, 70-year old Charles Wellesley, got 21 votes and has been duly appointed.