Ukraine

We have ceasefire agreament from 18.00 today, but...

As ceasefire starts I receive email from "Novorussia" inviting me to a press conference on Tuesday on why Ukraine is breaking the ceasefire

https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/5 ... 7899367424

http://i.imgur.com/Qj46MlS.jpg

Later they fixed text on webpage.
http://nsn.fm/press-center/narodnyy-fro ... ossiey.php

Now it sounds like: "How Poroshenko's order of ceasefire is executed by Ukranian army"

I think I can somewhat understand the Russian point of view:

That Russia got somehow 'cheated' of its empire in the wake of the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union and that the West keeps creeping into and infringing on the Russian 'sphere of interest'.

Country after country joining NATO, EU etc. Western influence in Eastern Europe growing - or perceived to be growing at least.

Western behavior hasn't helped to ameliorate the problem - in fact it has often made it worse:

The arrogance with which the EU treaty was presented and the release of Timochenko demanded was a huge mistake for instance.
The US isn't any better. It is an arrogant power player on the international stage. The Nulan phone call showed certain things. And - sorry to say that - the Iraq invasion was actually WORSE than what Putin is doing. Since Iraq the West certainly doesn't have any moral high horse to sit on when it comes to invasions into sovereign countries.

Ukraine has made its mistakes too. There IS a Nazi faction in existence (although Ukraine certainly isn't the only country of which that can be said but its somewhat understandable that it makes Russia nervous). There IS a lot of corruption there and a tiny minority makes an ungodly amount of money. And military spending has been so low for so long that Putin practically got invited in.

However ...

That STILL doesn't change the fact that Russia has no right whatsover to invade Ukraine, to destabilize it, to support and equip Ukrainian rebels, to annex Crimea or to flood everyone with supposed 'look at those Nazis' propaganda.

The West's supposed infringement into the Russian sphere of influence only IS an infringement if one assumes a right to such a 'sphere of influence' exists.
BUT no country - neither the US nor Russia, nor China for that matter - has a right to dominate its neighbours. There is no innate Russian right to tell the peoples around it what to do or not to do, what trade organizations, military organizations to join or not. Such a right simply DOES NOT EXIST.

Also Russian perception - while it is not altogether wrong isn't altogether objective either: It wasn't the West that dismantled the Soviet Union in 1991. The leaders of the Soviet Republics did that themselves. And the eastern European countries are flocking towards NATO and EU not solely because of supposedly corrupt western influences but also because they are (rightly as Ukraine proves once again) AFRAID OF RUSSIA.

So: One of the core problems of the current conflict (certainly not the only one - but a major one nonetheless) is that Russia seems to perceive it has a right to domination when it simply DOES NOT. They have never yet had to learn the painful lesson that we had to learn in Germany in 1945. And it shows.

End of "ceasefire". Terrorists and\or ruSSian military launched attack on Mariupol.

Original twitter
https://twitter.com/press_dnr/status/508359309621985280
Screenshot
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bw4XQrgCUAA6m8K.jpg

upd. Looks like "just" ruSSian military.

Daryl wrote:As to fascism, I doubt that the Ukrainian leaders could be any more fascist than Putin. Not a nice ethos but their business.

Why dont you try detail just how Putin is facist?
I´ll even help you:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism#Definitions

Ukraine on the other hand?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Svoboda_% ... l_party%29
"Svoboda advisor Yuriy Mykhalchyshyn established a "‘Joseph Goebbels Political Research Centre" in 2005, later changing "Joseph Goebbels" to "Ernst Jünger.""

"The SNPU established the paramilitary organization Patriot of Ukraine in 1999 as an "Association of Support" for the Military of Ukraine and registered with the Ministry of Justice. The paramilitary organization, which continues to use the Wolfsangel symbol, was disbanded in 2004 during the SNPU's reformation and reformed as an independent organization in 2005."

"In 2004, Tyahnybok was expelled from the Our Ukraine parliamentary faction for a speech calling for Ukrainians to fight against a "Muscovite-Jewish mafia,"[53] and celebrated the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists for having fought "Moscovites, Germans, Jews and other scum who wanted to take away our Ukrainian state."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social-National_Assembly
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_of_Ukraine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_Sector
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congress_ ... tionalists

There´s plenty more, but the place is messy so the above are the ones i can point at without having to spend hours finding.
There´s been over 40 official and organised parties in Ukraine since independence, and another bundle of more or less temporary affiliations in and out of parliament making it hard to specify which is which right now.

Daryl wrote:I agree that we wouldn't be happy, but our response would be to beef up our national defence capability. It wouldn't include exporting arms or "off duty" soldiers to Indonesia.

Really? I seem to recall much more "hands on" actions taken when there has been drastically less unrest in your nearby area than that.

Australian reaction to a real world coup:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Morris_Dance

Unrest related to separatism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of ... on_Bel_Isi

Clashes between Indonesia and Malaysia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Claret
http://www.awm.gov.au/atwar/indonesian-confrontation/

http://www.awm.gov.au/atwar/malayan-emergency/

Daryl wrote:If the Ukraine is persecuting a big chunk of its population that is still no business of Russia's, unless as in the ISIS situation the UN declares that crimes against humanity are being committed.

Right. As if that is going to happen when USA, EU and NATO are the ones involved in causing the mess.

And you fail to see how it IS concern for Russia because there are LOTS of people in Ukraine with family across the border.

Russian border guards have registered over 800000 refugees going across the border in the last several months.
Many of those to more or less distant relatives in Russia.

Someone estimated that if you count up to 2nd cousins, there´s over 5 millions Russians with relatives in Ukraine. Low estimate.

And so far, the vast majority of "soldiers" going into Ukraine from Russia, are males who have "delivered" their family to Russia and then goes back after getting armed.

Daryl wrote:The fact that some Ukrainian citizens speak Russian should not matter. Russia should not interfere in another sovereign country's internal matters. Neither should the USA for that matter.

And Russia worked pretty hard at not directly interfering. Then came a coup backed by mercenaries sent to Ukraine by USA and possibly others.
Perpetrated by among others, facists chanting "death to russia". Yeah, that´s when "internal matter" gets problematic.

I´m generally strongly towards non-interference myself, but all situations are unique, there can never be a "one size fits all" solution.

Bruno Behrends wrote:I think I can somewhat understand the Russian point of view:

That Russia got somehow 'cheated' of its empire in the wake of the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union and that the West keeps creeping into and infringing on the Russian 'sphere of interest'.

It´s much worse than that. Russia has a very long and distinctive history of invasions coming from the west(and is nowhere remotely as aggressive as is claimed "because everyone knows it is").

Bruno Behrends wrote:And - sorry to say that - the Iraq invasion was actually WORSE than what Putin is doing.

No, really? Are you kidding?

Iraq was invaded based on fake evidence. Russia isn´t invading Ukraine and the situation in Ukraine was created by internal corruption and stupidity over the course of 25 years, while Russia had barely anything to do with it.

Bruno Behrends wrote:Since Iraq the West certainly doesn't have any moral high horse to sit on when it comes to invasions into sovereign countries.

It´s far worse. Ukraine isn´t all that far from the Yugoslavian situation in the 90s.
Then, selfdetermination was everything, but now unity is the only thing that counts because the federalists/separatists are more or less vaguely affiliated with Russia.

Bruno Behrends wrote:There IS a Nazi faction in existence (although Ukraine certainly isn't the only country of which that can be said but its somewhat understandable that it makes Russia nervous).

Of course it´s not the only place with nazis, facists and extreme nationalists, it´s just the only place where they have so freaky much influence in politics.

Estonia and Poland (and to some extent Greece) have even worse ideological groups, but at least they´re not calling shots(literally).

Bruno Behrends wrote:That STILL doesn't change the fact that Russia has no right whatsover to invade Ukraine, to destabilize it, to support and equip Ukrainian rebels, to annex Crimea or to flood everyone with supposed 'look at those Nazis' propaganda.

Except Russia isn´t invading any more than the other way around.

Russia have done far less destabilising than EUSANATO has.

Crimea is a special case because it has been maltreated by the Kiev government and wanted indepence for decades already.
And with Ukraine starting to renege on the Russian basing rights there and the situation overall, i can´t fault Russia for annexation.
It was going to happen eventually.

Bruno Behrends wrote:Such a right simply DOES NOT EXIST.

Ideally, no. But that´s not the right they´re playing with. It´s the right to security and selfdefence.

NATO behaves like a belligerent entity towards Russia.

Your statement is like saying that Germany during the cold war shouldn´t have a military because USSR was never a threat to it.

This is what so many miss, that Russia first of all is a very defensively minded nation, and that EUSANATO gives it reason to become even more paranoid, well that´s not their fault.

Bruno Behrends wrote:Also Russian perception - while it is not altogether wrong isn't altogether objective either

Of course not. But does it matter?

Russia has like i said a long history of getting attacked and invaded from the west, and "the west" is now making it blatantly obvious that that is what they´re doing again, well duh, of course Russia will react.

Bruno Behrends wrote:And the eastern European countries are flocking towards NATO and EU not solely because of supposedly corrupt western influences but also because they are (rightly as Ukraine proves once again) AFRAID OF RUSSIA.

Which is about as sane as being afraid of Germany, France, Italy, Spain or Sweden.
Most nations have histories of warfare.

They equate Russia with USSR, despite the fact that such a thing is outright stupid.

Bruno Behrends wrote:So: One of the core problems of the current conflict (certainly not the only one - but a major one nonetheless) is that Russia seems to perceive it has a right to domination when it simply DOES NOT.

Wrong, Russia is definitely not aiming for domination currently, they are looking towards self defence.

Couple of photos for you.
http://uapress.info/content/Foto9/%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B01.jpg
http://uapress.info/content/Foto9/%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B02.jpg
http://uapress.info/content/Foto9/%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B03.jpg
Didnt you recognise fellov on second photo? Its Pavel Gubarev, former governor of DNR.

@2004 year after those speech Oleh Tiahnybok whas cast out from election union(group of parties supporting single candidate on president election, Victor Yushchenko)

About facist organisation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Socialist_Society
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Na ... list_Party
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_National_Unity
Over 50 of them.

Yes, yes. RuSSia isn´t invading Ukraine, and all that imagery were created in Photoshop and 3DMax. And T-72 people can buy at local used car store.


O, God, how i wish that your country have shared border with RuSSia, not mine.


Upd. Realy, why would somebody be afraid of ruSSia? Such peacefull neighbor.

A strange incident near the Russian-Estonian border on Friday ended with an Estonian intelligence officer in Russian custody and the two countries trading sharply contradictory allegations about what happened.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/06/world ... .html?_r=0

Tenshinai wrote:It´s much worse than that. Russia has a very long and distinctive history of invasions coming from the west(and is nowhere remotely as aggressive as is claimed "because everyone knows it is").

Russia have done far less destabilising than EUSANATO has.

[...]

NATO behaves like a belligerent entity towards Russia.

[...]

This is what so many miss, that Russia first of all is a very defensively minded nation, and that EUSANATO gives it reason to become even more paranoid, well that´s not their fault.

[...]

Russia has like i said a long history of getting attacked and invaded from the west, and "the west" is now making it blatantly obvious that that is what they´re doing again, well duh, of course Russia will react.

[...]

Wrong, Russia is definitely not aiming for domination currently, they are looking towards self defence.

Quoted for truth. And almost nobody in the West is understanding or even trying to understand this.

Here's a short video illustrating what Tenshinai is saying:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6LIhNgsQoc

In 1990 at the 4+2 talks, Russia was promised that there would be no eastwards expansion of NATO. To quote from a Spiegel article:

What the US secretary of state said on Feb. 9, 1990 in the magnificent St. Catherine's Hall at the Kremlin is beyond dispute. There would be, in Baker's words, "no extension of NATO's jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east," provided the Soviets agreed to the NATO membership of a unified Germany. Moscow would think about it, Gorbachev said, but added: "any extension of the zone of NATO is unacceptable."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 315-2.html

And now look what has happened: http://cdn2.spiegel.de/images/image-359 ... 9-hzfw.jpg

I don't disagree with all the history quoted here, and that Russia has a right to feel threatened and aggrieved by this. I also agree that the USA and allies (including my own country) have behaved even worse in recent times.

However, this does not give Russia the right to violently destabilise another sovereign country. Protest diplomatically and try to win back allegiance by example sure, but not to facilitate the killing of citizens in another country. I don't see how Russia itself has actually been attacked in all of this. Lost allies and reputation sure but not invaded or destabilised internally.

I protested against the Bush led invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, and puzzled why they didn't sort out Saudi Arabia who actually bankrolled and planned 9/11 instead. That was an actual attack on the USA that was mainly facilitated by the Saudis, so yes the USA would have had some mandate to demand that the individual perpetrators be brought to justice, preferably without a shot being fired.

Google maps as proof of ruSSian invasion and overborder shelling. And about MH-17 too.
http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.com/

And little more in russian language with google map links.
http://divannaya-sotnya.com.ua/egor/goo ... torii.html

Daryl wrote:However, this does not give Russia the right to violently destabilise another sovereign country. Protest diplomatically and try to win back allegiance by example sure, but not to facilitate the killing of citizens in another country. I don't see how Russia itself has actually been attacked in all of this. Lost allies and reputation sure but not invaded or destabilised internally.

They DID the diplomatic dance, that´s what led Yanukovic to reach a sane conclusion, that the EU offer was crap compared to the Russian one.

And then the EUSA "violently destabilised" Ukraine to make sure their preferred people got in power. It was easy because Kiev is in the 1/6th of the country that is the most nationalist and anti-Russian.

Mercenaries were used to kill people to get the mess started. Weapons were delivered to extremeists to make sure it kept going.

If China caused coups in Canada and Mexico, and they then suddenly join a brand new military alliance with China, do you really think USA would do nothing?

And why do you think Russia is building gas pipelines NOT going through Ukraine at a frantic pace? While the son of USAs vice president just happens to get a cushy job with Ukraines largest energy company?

EU and USA are effectively doing against Russia now, what USA/UK/NL did against Japan in the 1930s. That turned out really well didn´t it? Or not.

Economic/strategic warfare isn´t obvious most of the time, and you wont see it reported often, you have to look.