Flu & Covid19

TFLYTSNBN wrote:I'm not wanting to double post, but I didn't want my comments to be confused with Zeihan's.

I think that Zeihan accurately describes China's economic and political predicament. Keep in mind that immediately prior to the plague, China was plagued by a near rebellion in Hong Kong. China's regime is fragile.

I disagree that China is so militarily disadvantaged. The Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty enabled China to develop forces that were forbidden to the US and Russia. Antiship ballistic missiles that severely out range the F-35 and the F-18 make it extremely hazardous for carriers to engage China. The US has a few tricks up it's sleeve, but a war with China would not be easy. The risk of nuclear escalation is serious.

What I am hoping will happen is that Trump will exploit the global outrage about China's duplicity without pressing them so hard that they go on the warpath. A gradual repatriation of critical manufacturing to America in combination with a global trade meltdown will cripple China's economy without pushing them ovdr the edge. After a decade of economic implosion and political upheaval, China will no longer be a peer threat.

n7axw wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:I'm not wanting to double post, but I didn't want my comments to be confused with Zeihan's.

I think that Zeihan accurately describes China's economic and political predicament. Keep in mind that immediately prior to the plague, China was plagued by a near rebellion in Hong Kong. China's regime is fragile.

I disagree that China is so militarily disadvantaged. The Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty enabled China to develop forces that were forbidden to the US and Russia. Antiship ballistic missiles that severely out range the F-35 and the F-18 make it extremely hazardous for carriers to engage China. The US has a few tricks up it's sleeve, but a war with China would not be easy. The risk of nuclear escalation is serious.

What I am hoping will happen is that Trump will exploit the global outrage about China's duplicity without pressing them so hard that they go on the warpath. A gradual repatriation of critical manufacturing to America in combination with a global trade meltdown will cripple China's economy without pushing them ovdr the edge. After a decade of economic implosion and political upheaval, China will no longer be a peer threat.

At a guess, that is what this business in the South China Sea is all about... China is trying to gain control over energy resources close to home...

Don

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Daryl wrote:If we didn’t do any testing we would have very few cases.

Michael Everett wrote:

Daryl wrote:If we didn’t do any testing we would have very few cases.

Isn't that pretty much how China decided that they were Covid-19 -free in Wuhan?
They stopped testing.
No tests means no (officially recognized) cases and therefore anyone who's ill must have something else entirely.
No cases means that everything's alright.

Seriously, it does make sense if you are willing to look at more than just the surface. Trump just phrased it badly, inserting the word "known" between "few" and "cases" would have been more accurate.

n7axw wrote:That doesn't mean that it makes any sense. It merely means that you've buried your head in the sand with your arse sticking in the air. Covid would still be there and people still dying.

Michael Everett wrote:

n7axw wrote:That doesn't mean that it makes any sense. It merely means that you've buried your head in the sand with your arse sticking in the air. Covid would still be there and people still dying.

Which is what China seems to have done.
They are not testing for Corvid-19 and using that to explain that they have no positive tests coming back.
Have you noticed that they've refused to give a number (ballpark or otherwise) about how many negative tests they've confirmed?
You can only have Covid-19 deaths if you recognize them. if you refuse to recognize the cause as Covid-19, it must be "Causes unknown".
It is simple so long as you assume that changing the definition changes reality. With that assumption, you can re-define anything to look good.
Of course, reality has a way of biting back...

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
What scares the crap out of me are the third world countries with high growth rates and low testing rates. I expect that within six months we will have 400 million confirmed infections and God only knows how many unconfirmed infections.