Flu & Covid19

We often hear people say that Covid19 is not much worse than a bad flu season. Statistically that seems to be true yet experientially we know that's not - just think of New York - the undertakers are completely 'flooded'

obs there is something not right in the comparison, but I couldn't put my finger on the issue.

Today I came across an interesting article in the Scientific American that bears on this issue. I'll quote a bit from the author, Jeremy Samuel Faust - hospital doctor in emergency and ...

When reports about the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 began circulating earlier this year and questions were being raised about how the illness it causes, COVID-19, compared to the flu, it occurred to me that, in four years of emergency medicine residency and over three and a half years as an attending physician, I had almost never seen anyone die of the flu. I could only remember one tragic pediatric case.

Based on the CDC numbers though, I should have seen many, many more. In 2018, over 46,000 Americans died from opioid overdoses. Over 36,500 died in traffic accidents. Nearly 40,000 died from gun violence. I see those deaths all the time. Was I alone in noticing this discrepancy?

I decided to call colleagues around the country who work in other emergency departments and in intensive care units to ask a simple question: how many patients could they remember dying from the flu?

Most of the physicians I surveyed couldn’t remember a single one over their careers. Some said they recalled a few. All of them seemed to be having the same light bulb moment I had already experienced: For too long, we have blindly accepted a statistic that does not match our clinical experience...

the full article is here: [url]https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
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I believe that most of the people killed by the common Flu are geriatric patients who die either at home, in elder Care facilities, or suffer an escalating illness that is gradual enough that they are admitted directly to the hospital without going to the emergency room.

As I posted elsewhere, I am an agnostic about how bad the Coronavirus really is. There are enough studies based on random samples to suggest that the number of infections are at least one and maybe two or three orders of magnitude higher than the official statistics. However; the test originally developed by the CDC had an extremely high false positive rate making it nearly useless. If these random sample tests are being conducted using a test with a high false positive rate, then we should not allow them to influence public policy.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:As I posted elsewhere, I am an agnostic about how bad the Coronavirus really is.

There is a fairly strong indicator in the excess death statistics.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html

The death toll from Covid is almost certainly being underreported. Significantly.

gcomeau wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:As I posted elsewhere, I am an agnostic about how bad the Coronavirus really is.

There is a fairly strong indicator in the excess death statistics.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... eaths.html

The death toll from Covid is almost certainly being underreported. Significantly.

And these increased mortality rates are occuring as the lockdowns are reducing deaths from many other causes such as vehicle accidents.

The one graph that alarms me the most is Equidor. If this virus can thrive in a tropical environment, Summer will not end the pandemic.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:
And these increased mortality rates are occuring as the lockdowns are reducing deaths from many other causes such as vehicle accidents.

The one graph that alarms me the most is Equidor. If this virus can thrive in a tropical environment, Summer will not end the pandemic.

There is an article on bbc.com/future that you might find interesting.

Also, there is a world map on the John Hopkins web site that for some reason I was unable to access this morning. But as I recall it showed a hot spot in the middle of subsahara Africa.

Don

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Unfortunately, no matter how much people want to drag things out the country cannot remain on lock down forever. Economically it's impossible. Realistically it's impossible to force people to stay home much longer. Antivirus or no.

Even if the virus is 10x more deadly than is being reported people in the US will not tolerate being cooped up at home for much longer. If it has a 25% infection rate and a 10% mortality rate that will just have to be accepted as the new norm while the rest of society gets on with the process of living. Resuming going to social gatherings, public venues, the gym and the bars is going to happen. It's just a cold hard truth that a lot of people won't like.

My take on those countries who have successfully kept the fatalities down is that they have two slightly different goals, and are making their response up as they go, as there is no real precedent.
One goal is to minimise deaths until either a vaccine or an effective treatment becomes available in the short to medium term.
The other goal is to slowly open things up so their ICUs can cope with the increased numbers of critically ill, so over time either a vaccine or treatment becomes available or herd immunity does the trick.

This whole situation has added to my slowly growing understanding of how US citizens tend to be different to others in the western world. What you say in "

people in the US will not tolerate being cooped up at home for much longer

", is becoming obvious with gun toting thugs in the streets of some states. Won't happen to any great extent elsewhere, as peer group pressure and public shaming would supplement police action in the developed world. As they say "Only in America".
Having nationwide health and welfare nets along with decent working conditions (like sick leave) may also have something to do with it?

Fireflair wrote:Unfortunately, no matter how much people want to drag things out the country cannot remain on lock down forever. Economically it's impossible. Realistically it's impossible to force people to stay home much longer. Antivirus or no.

Even if the virus is 10x more deadly than is being reported people in the US will not tolerate being cooped up at home for much longer. If it has a 25% infection rate and a 10% mortality rate that will just have to be accepted as the new norm while the rest of society gets on with the process of living. Resuming going to social gatherings, public venues, the gym and the bars is going to happen. It's just a cold hard truth that a lot of people won't like.

Fireflair is right. Daryl, finally nobody can survive without an economy. I don't know how far Australia is shut down. That goes beyond the protests of gun toting right wingers. I suspect that a gradual reopening with a willingness to tamp down on hot spots is already in order.

Don

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We have had about 95 deaths out of 25 million people. Excluding one cruise ship and one nursing home halves that.
As in the US our states have some variation, but essentially the situation has been. Food, fuel, hardware, and alcohol shops open, dress shops shut (online ok). Only allowed out of home for essential services like going to work, or shopping, and then only one at a time and local. No family visits or travel. No elective surgery or non urgent dental.
These restrictions are gradually being lifted now. You can travel up to 50 kms, dress shops and such are reopening, however you still have to stay 1.5 metres from others. Reminds me of trying to fault find a car or computer, just change one thing at a time.
Not having anything like the US National Debt our governments have been able to pay people to stay at home for now, (about $750 a week I think). People who have lost their jobs due to this and can't pay rent, can't be evicted.
For the past two months I have been legally able to go grocery shopping, but being in several at risk groups I've opted to get my stuff delivered.
As I have said, we look at the two extremes of China's and the US's street scenes, and each seems surreal and SiFi to us.
I will finally mention that we did dodge a bullet, having extensive Chinese tourism, education and business ties, but shut that down hard and early, much to their disgust.

n7axw wrote:Fireflair is right. Daryl, finally nobody can survive without an economy. I don't know how far Australia is shut down. That goes beyond the protests of gun toting right wingers. I suspect that a gradual reopening with a willingness to tamp down on hot spots is already in order.

Don

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To go slightly further.

I'd have to drive for about an hour to find the nearest infected people. Who are all under isolation orders. (I think it's 7 people but most of them would be past it by now)

My home state has implemented drive through testing centers, and mobile testing centers that are blitzing job sites. Yesterday (Sunday) I think Victoria tested more people than the rest of the country combined, but then one state is absolutely clear, one has yet to have a community infection, and one hasn't had a new infection in days iirc.