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Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Dilandu   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:16 pm

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n7axw wrote:After my last post, I did a bit of googling. No point in complaining that I don't know the answer to a question if I'm too lazy to look, after all... :lol:

At any rate, here is what I found...

Drug company profits tend to range from 20 to 42 percent. That does seem high, but one needs to be cautious with that judgment since they do need enough profit to attract new investors.

17 percent of budget is spent on R&D.

20+ percent is spent on advertising. Coming up with a figure here can depend on how the numbers are sliced and diced. I tried to err on the more conservative side. I suspect that It's really higher...


In other words, if pharmaceutical companies would be nationalized, it would be possible to cut about 40-62% of the cost without affecting R&D spending)
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Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Joat42   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:10 pm

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Imaginos1892 wrote:
Joat42 wrote:The mortality-rate is ~4% on average for COVID-19, if every inhabitant in the US gets infected that's about 13 million deaths

Those numbers mean nothing because nobody knows how many people HAVE the disease. They’re only testing people who have serious symptoms AND meet several other conditions. For every ‘confirmed’ case, there are another 4 or 5 or 6 people who had it, but dismissed it as just another cold, or didn’t get sick enough to ‘qualify’ for testing.

The Italian government is trying to claim that EVERY death is due to coronavirus.

At worst, this coronavirus is 1/5th as bad as they claim. Could be less than 1/10th.
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Governments can only print money; they can't make it worth anything. They can make it worth nothing.

The mortality rate is based on statistics worldwide. It's fascinating how much better you understand this than the immunology-specialists presenting the facts.

---
Jack of all trades and destructive tinkerer.


Anyone who have simple solutions for complex problems is a fool.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:25 pm

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The E wrote:
Imaginos1892 wrote:Panic KILLS you dipshit, as do the government’s floundering attempts to appease the media wankers stirring it up. This panic is going to kill a lot more people than some lame-ass cold virus. Any large city is perpetually three days from famine and a week from food riots. Cities are maintained in that precarious balance by an economy that is far too complex to be centrally ’managed’ by fiat. An economy contains millions of parts, and the parts are people. They can’t be reduced to one-dimensional variables. Strangle that economy by locking people up so they can’t do their jobs and it all falls apart.


Germany is currently locked down. Businesses are required to be open to the least extent possible, people are working from home, taking vacations, are on Kurzarbeit or whatever other measures are available to reduce the amount of contact with others; Gatherings of more than 2 people are prohibited.....

And yet, there's no panic. Grocery stores are open and filled; now that the first wave of panic buys of non-perishables is over, it's easy to get everything a person needs again.

There's worry, yes, a lot of it. Noone knows how long this will continue to be necessary (definitely past the end of April though), and while the consequences of being out of a job are less severe for us than they would be for the average american, it's still going to be a problematic time for a lot of people.
Note, however, that it is explicitly just "problematic", not fatal.

And why is that? Mostly because, unlike US media, we never went through a downplaying or minimizing phase. Covid was always treated as a serious matter of some concern, and so none of the measures taken came as a big surprise; there were no big course corrections like there were in the UK, and having Italy right next door served as a prime example of why we need to do what we are doing right now.

Cities are three days away from a riot, yes..... if the supplies run out. There is no crisis in production or delivery at present. Shelves are filled. Stock is available.

So, what does your perception that your country is close to rioting tell you about your handling of this pretty serious pandemic?

The problem is made worse here because in its infinite idiocy, the U.S. government has imposed taxes on ‘business assets’. Businesses would be taxed if they kept money in reserve for emergencies, but debt is rewarded with tax deductions. That alone would be bad enough, but inventories are also considered ‘business assets’. Raw materials, finished goods, even packaging are all heavily taxed. Stores are taxed for keeping food on the shelves. Distributors are taxed for keeping food in their warehouses. Bakeries are taxed for keeping ingredients on hand. Hospitals and medical suppliers are taxed for stockpiling extra masks, gloves and isolation suits. Bookstores and publishers are taxed for keeping unsold books. Millions of brand-new books are dumped in the trash every year because the taxes cost more than selling them would bring in. Manufacturers are forced to scrap tons of spare parts for the same reason.


You pivoting this into a rant on taxation is prime comedy material. It's not a lack of disaster preparedness, not a lack of any real form of security net that's the issue, it's the taxes!

How many levels of libertarian brainwashing do you have to be on to actually believe that....

But still, the only answer you can imagine is “The government must make all the decisions and force everybody to obey or else!” — when those decisions are based on few facts, no understanding, and the self-serving greed of petty tyrants that see only an opportunity to grab unconstrained power. Don’t try to pretend otherwise; last week the Canadian Liberal Party nearly succeeded in ramming through an enabling act that would effectively suspend Parliament and grant them the power to enact laws by decree. Sound familiar? It should! IF you knew anything about history.


All I can say is: We started testing for Corona early and hard. As a result, we're currently on track to have one of the lowest numbers of deaths due to corona per capita on the planet. We couldn't have done that, and we wouldn't be able to weather this thing as well as we're doing so far, if we didn't have a comprehensive system of social security and a government that is slightly more capable than yours.

The stock market decline is not “Wall Street’s problem”; it is an indicator and a symptom of what is being done to the economy, the way a face turning purple is a symptom of being choked to death. Businesses, especially small businesses, are going bankrupt not because of coronavirus, but because of the panicking idiots. People are losing their jobs. Soon they will be unable to make their rent, house and car payments, because the government punishes savings and rewards debt.


And? We already know your system sucks hard if you suddenly lose your job, that's nothing new.



The actual data refutes your claim that Germany is on track to have the lowest mortality rate on the planet.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Right now, Germany is almost dead even with the US. Both countries seem to have reached the inflection point so final fatality rate should be about the same.

The US government has done some things wrong. The CDCs test kit was a disaster. However; no US President can micromanage the government. Effective oversight becomes impossible when staff of the National Security Council are conspiring to impeach the President during the most critical phase.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by The E   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:52 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:Right now, Germany is almost dead even with the US. Both countries seem to have reached the inflection point so final fatality rate should be about the same.


I would really, really like to think so, but that's not going to happen. Not while your country is still deeply divided over how to respond to covid.

In an earlier post, you boasted about the number of ICU beds you have in the US. Ask yourself: How evenly distributed are they? What are the chances someone in the more rural areas of your country (which is most of it by area) will be able to get to an ICU when they need to?

What are the chances of the US curtailing the spread of the infection, when quarantine measures are ... well, unevenly implemented if not openly resisted at multiple levels of government, including its very top?

No, the US haven't reached the inflection point yet. We might have, but it's too early to say for certain.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:28 pm

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:

Effective oversight becomes impossible when staff of the National Security Council are conspiring to impeach the President during the most critical phase.


Really... when Trump has appointed most of the people on it. This isn't a credible assertion. Just more right wing nonsense to be filtered through and discarded.

Nobody has any appetite for impeachment right now. Not with an election approaching fast.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by n7axw   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:46 pm

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Dilandu wrote:
n7axw wrote:After my last post, I did a bit of googling. No point in complaining that I don't know the answer to a question if I'm too lazy to look, after all... :lol:

At any rate, here is what I found...

Drug company profits tend to range from 20 to 42 percent. That does seem high, but one needs to be cautious with that judgment since they do need enough profit to attract new investors.

17 percent of budget is spent on R&D.

20+ percent is spent on advertising. Coming up with a figure here can depend on how the numbers are sliced and diced. I tried to err on the more conservative side. I suspect that It's really higher...


In other words, if pharmaceutical companies would be nationalized, it would be possible to cut about 40-62% of the cost without affecting R&D spending)


Not necessarily. Things are messier than that. The temptation would be toward cost cutting if R&D's budget were on the block. That as much is spent on R&D as it is is that companies are incentivized to do so in hope of profit. In that way, the status quo is not all bad. I strongly doubt that nationalization would incentivize much of anything. What needs to be done is to figure out how to get consumer costs down without destroying the incentives.

Don

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When any group seeks political power in God's name, both religion and politics are instantly corrupted.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Arol   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:49 pm

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Joat42 wrote:I think it all boils down to Jantelagen in some sense,...

You’ve certainly made my day “cousin” !
Using “Jantloven”, as a reason for Sweden going their own way in combating Covid 19. I’ll have to reread Sandrmose. One thing that a lock-down gives is a lot of time to read.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by WeberFan   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:58 pm

WeberFan
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Posts: 354
Joined: Fri Mar 27, 2015 9:12 am

n7axw wrote:After my last post, I did a bit of googling. No point in complaining that I don't know the answer to a question if I'm too lazy to look, after all... :lol:

At any rate, here is what I found...

Drug company profits tend to range from 20 to 42 percent. That does seem high, but one needs to be cautious with that judgment since they do need enough profit to attract new investors.

17 percent of budget is spent on R&D.

20+ percent is spent on advertising. Coming up with a figure here can depend on how the numbers are sliced and diced. I tried to err on the more conservative side. I suspect that It's really higher...

There you have it. Make of it what you will...

Don

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Also NOT trying to justify Pharma Company business practices - there are many good ones, and many bad ones.

Obviously they'll do whatever they can to make whatever bucks they can.

But swimming around in the backs of their heads is always the thought "what if we get sued for a product liability issue and get a multi-billion dollar judgment?"

Whether you agree with the opioid settlements or not, they'll drive SOME pharma companies out of business. And when the companies go out of business, they're not inventing new stuff and a lot of people are out on the streets.

Not saying it's right, and not saying it's wrong. Just pointing it out.

As Don stated so eloquently, "There you have it. Make of it what you will..."
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:15 pm

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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by gcomeau   » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:40 pm

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Trump a month ago...

"When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done.


Trump today

"You're talking about 2.2 million deaths, 2.2 million people from this, and so, if we can hold that down, as we're saying, to 100,000—that's a horrible number—maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100- and 200,000, we all together have done a very good job."


He loaded those goalposts on a space shuttle and moved them to another freaking planet.
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