Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

Michael Everett wrote:2) China is not known for its innovation skills. Duplication, yes. Modification, to a degree, but innovation? Their entire current culture is constructed to stifle free-thinking. Orders must be followed, forms filled in... original thinking (or even going off-script) are seen as threats to be quashed.
Creating a Bio-weapon and deploying it requires both innovation and a rather fanatical attention to detail that most Chinese simply do not have due to their upbringing and education.
Yes, there are Chinese people more than capable of doing said things, but given the cultural inertia they'd have to work against, it is unlikely in the extreme that they could assemble the resources needed for such a project.

This is an old trope about China, but ask yourself this: Can a country like China, which has undergone very rapid change in its technical and manufacturing capabilities and is undergoing rapid social changes really be called "incapable of innovation"?

See, the thing is, the PRC knows that it lagged behind western countries (and, for that matter, several asian ones) in terms of its ability to innovate. And then they took measures to address that shortcoming: as of 2016, the PRC was spending 2.1% of its GDP on R&D -- which doesn't sound like much, until you consider that the US spent 2.79& of its GDP on research that year. Chinese companies and inventors are registering patents at a blistering speed, chinese researchers are publishing papers; Companies like Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent are making serious waves in the west.

Secondly, on a cultural level, China is at a level of infatuation with technology and the new that was last seen around the west in the 50s and 60s: they are optimistic about new things in ways that we aren't anymore.

It is absolutely correct to say that there are structural factors that are holding back chinese innovators from innovating. But do not expect that to remain true for long.

One positive thing to come out of this is that we have tested the ultimate defence against a true engineered bio weapon.
With covid-19 at say 1% fatality compared to flu at 0.1%, we have proved that isolation and social distancing do work somewhat.
If the real thing at 50% fatalities plus gets released, the same safety mechanisms will ensure that at least some humans survive.

It will be interesting to compare New Zealand's outcomes with the US. Yes I know that all of NZ doesn't make up one sizable US city, and that they do have no land borders. However both are English speaking democracies, first world countries, with free presses, feisty populations, and modern health systems. However at the time Trump was talking about only having 15 cases and being clear by Easter, Ardern was shutting borders and locking down her country. Whole of country comparisons are meaningless, but per 100,000 citizen rates will be interesting, and informative for the future.

Oh ffs, apparently this needs reposting.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

SARS-CoV-2 is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans; SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe disease, whereas HKU1, NL63, OC43 and 229E are associated with mild symptoms6. Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data. We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.

Michael Everett wrote:

cthia wrote:I still think it's man-geneered.

If it isn't, and I do hope it isn't because biowarfare is way too low for man to go, it plays right into my alternate theory that it got away from them. Look how careless and cavalier they were about carrying it.

I don't think it's a bio-engineered weapon for several reasons.

1) It has been examined by scientists down to a molecular level and none of the indications of artificial augmentation/alteration have been found. While lack of evidence is not evidence of lack, the scientists had very good reason to look closely and would very likely have found any indications.

2) China is not known for its innovation skills. Duplication, yes. Modification, to a degree, but innovation? Their entire current culture is constructed to stifle free-thinking. Orders must be followed, forms filled in... original thinking (or even going off-script) are seen as threats to be quashed.
Creating a Bio-weapon and deploying it requires both innovation and a rather fanatical attention to detail that most Chinese simply do not have due to their upbringing and education.
Yes, there are Chinese people more than capable of doing said things, but given the cultural inertia they'd have to work against, it is unlikely in the extreme that they could assemble the resources needed for such a project.

3) Geopolitical Trends. Before the Corvid-19 outbreak, China was making considerable headway in infiltrating the economies of other countries, especially the African nations, in ways that were letting them either gain access to the political controls or set things up that they could undermine infrastructure almost instantly should the government in question turn against them. While a relatively slow process, the Chinese Government thinks in terms of decades (or even centuries) and the technique was working. They had no reason to completely rearrange the gameboard with Corvid-19, not when they were moving to claim eventual victory.

I truly hope it isn't something man made.

1. I'm aware of scientist's investigations and findings. I'm just not certain there has been enough time, and effort, spent on the China angle just yet. There are more pressing concerns. Plus, if, if it is known that China made the bug, I'm not sure governments would be forthcoming with the truth. You think people are panicked now, even though it's widely believed to be a natural virus, what kind of panic do you believe it would cause if it is released to the public that China has truly let Pandora out of her box? If China engineered it, now is not the time to release that info to the public.

2. Have you looked at their navy? Even if most of their navy is from stolen tech, they have claimed to have mastered quantum radar, something Einstein himself was struggling with. An ability they say is what has made US stealth, even of the F-35, worthless.

3. I'd say covid-19 has infiltrated our economy rather well. To the tune of $2.2T already.

I doubt that the Chinese did it...

1.The scientists have not found evidence for bioengineering that we know of. Absence of evidence is not concrete proof that it didn't. But without it all we can do is speculate and the probabilities here seem low.

2.If they did, it got away from them rather than being deliberately released. After all if you have a weapon, you at least need to be able to aim it and this one acted indiscriminately. It has to be suppressing the sales of all that "made in China" stuff they got out world wide which would depress their export market, to say nothing of the internal disruption caused by Wuhan. So was it deiberate? Chances of that are close to zero. Accidental? The odds go up on this one, but probabilities still seem low, not withstanding the incident mentioned upstream on this thread.

3.The overwhelming odds are that this was natural... caused by bats or something...

4.Could our government lie about this or simply withhold info. Yes, although things do have a way of getting out. But it is still possible that "the real truth" lies hidden in some deeply buried classified file. But this still leaves us speculating which means we really don't know.

I found an article on Mother Jones this morning describing the Wuhan lockdown. They really go after it. They've been starting to open up. But their idea of "opening up" is a lot more draconian than anything we have experienced here...

Don

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BTW, the US allowing China to develop circuit boards for the F-35 is as STUPID as depending on Russian antivirus software.

Whether the Covid 19 pandemic currently raging was a result of a Chinese coronavirus that slipped its leash, or is a natural event is not something a layman like me can answer.
That said it should be noted that even a casual study of history will show that Mother Nature is fully capable of brewing up the most horrid deviltry in her cauldron, all without needing Man’s help!
Do the names Cholera, Yellow Ferber, Smallpox or the great granddaddy of the all, The Black Death ring a bell? All of them naturally occurring, all of them a result of the Old Biddy’s attempt to cull poor old Homo Sap!

gcomeau wrote:Oh ffs, apparently this needs reposting.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

SARS-CoV-2 is the seventh coronavirus known to infect humans; SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe disease, whereas HKU1, NL63, OC43 and 229E are associated with mild symptoms6. Here we review what can be deduced about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 from comparative analysis of genomic data. We offer a perspective on the notable features of the SARS-CoV-2 genome and discuss scenarios by which they could have arisen. Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.

Some of us can actually read beyond the abstract.
Some of us also remember NATURE publishing the TTAPS Nuclear Winter "study" without peer review but carefully coordinated with a publicity campaign. This study offers no actual evidence that this virus wasn't engineered. They simply offer the opinion​ that because the virus could be modified to be even more lethal, it wasn't modified.

Interestingly; a more lethal version of the Chinavirus would probably inflict far fewer fatalities. The R0 for almost all viruses are actually amazingly low. Almost all interpersonal contacts do not result in transmission. To get rapid exponential growth, victims need to live long enough to interact with many people before they die or are incapacitated to have a high probability of infecting more than one person. Victims also need to remain healthy enough that other people will not recognize them as a disease carrier and thus avoid them, like the proverbial plague. The ability of asymptomatic victims to infect others is why social distancing is being imposed.

If the numbers being reported out of China are accurate, then their success in containment strongly suggests that they have been vaccinating people. If China has a vaccine for a previously unknown disease, then they obviously developed the disease or at least were studying it. It also appears that China was ramping up production of medical supplies and equipment before the outbreak escalated. While the actual number of fatalities is still trivial, the economic impact has been devastating. Given the context of a trade war with Trump, it is extremely suspicious. Europeans are obviously eager to submit to Chinese dominance as the price for medical supplies and equipment.

Arol wrote:Whether the Covid 19 pandemic currently raging was a result of a Chinese coronavirus that slipped its leash, or is a natural event is not something a layman like me can answer.
That said it should be noted that even a casual study of history will show that Mother Nature is fully capable of brewing up the most horrid deviltry in her cauldron, all without needing Man’s help!
Do the names Cholera, Yellow Ferber, Smallpox or the great granddaddy of the all, The Black Death ring a bell? All of them naturally occurring, all of them a result of the Old Biddy’s attempt to cull poor old Homo Sap!

One of my friends is positing that we might be looking at something, or something similar, that killed off the dinosaurs. Because they wouldn't quarantine.

Instead of infected bats, there were pterodactyls.

On a sillier note, Arizona has declared golfing an essential activity.

Arol wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:...The only way to refute stubborn bigotry such as yours is to simply wait it out and count the carcasses...

You talk of bigotry, and yet your use of a term likes “Eurotrash” shows an inordinate amount of bigotry from your side!

"Bigot" and "bigotry" have multiple connotations. My primary use is in reference to a refusal to acknowledge facts or consider opinions that conflict with your own. Most of the Eurotrash (a group that includes Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders) and liberal Americans who post on this forum suffer from this intellectual disability. Your confirmation bias is profound.

I am intentionally rude and insulting to foreigners who feel entitled to come on the website of an American author to insult America and Americans about many issues that they know nearly nothing about. The fact that you feel so entitled to offer your opinions is astonishing. You certainly would not welcome me on your countries websites to pontificate about your problems
. The demonization of President Trump's handling of the Coronavirus is profoundly gratuitous given the reality that the infection rate and death rate in America are so much lower than most European countries. You Eurotrash need to look in the mirror and acknowledge your own flaws and mistakes.