Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

gcomeau wrote:For a sign of just how on the ball handling of this issue is in the US, while Trump continues to refuse to issue a national stay at home order even while his own medical experts are standing up at his own briefings saying how important it is that everyone in the country follow the stay at home guidelines and they can see that it ISN'T HAPPENING... yesterday the governor of Georgia declared to the entire country that he JUST found out people who were asymptomatic were contagious and so he was finally issuing a stay at home order for his state.

The GOVERNOR of Georgia. The guy in charge of response to this for his state in the absence of any federal leadership or direction.

That information has been in briefings on the virus for MONTHS. Apparently, he's never actually bothered reading or watching one until YESTERDAY. I can only assume he's been getting all his info on the virus from whatever the hell source Imaginos is getting his from.

Your mention that the governor of Georgia finally woke up to the fact that a stay-at-home campaign is critical to keeping the number of infected down rang a bell. I was recently on visit to Atlanta, and I was struck by the number of homeless I saw; a tendency I’ve seen in other large US cities.
This is not just a US phenomenon; being homeless. There isn’t a country in the world that doesn’t have a segment of the population that is homeless; it’s just that the US with their large population make them more visible.
So the stay-at-home campaign can’t really apply to people that don’t have a home! Alternatively stuffing them into homeless shelters will be counterproductive, in that will turn these shelters into breeding grounds for the coronavirus.
There is also the fact that living rough will mean that many of these people will have a lowered immune defense.
Truly a case of screwed if they remain on the street, and screwed if they go to shelters!
Large scale testing of shelter residents might alleviate some of the problem. But these people are sure to be lowest priority on the testing totem pole.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:As usual, you went full fucktard.

Says the guy who then proceeded to post a link to an article that said his death rate calculations were wrong.

Try reading your link again. It says you can NOT calculate death rate by just looking at fatalities vs recoveries until the epedemic is OVER.

As in, when the lagging indicator of recoveries have caught up with fatalities. It also says you can attempt now to imperfectly estimate what actual fatalities vs recoveries will be by looking at numbers of deaths and recovered but only if you provide a time offset correction to the data to account for the lag in recovery data relative to fatality data.

Which you weren't doing when you came up with your 20% number. You were just trying to use the CFR = deaths/(deaths + recovered) formula you saw in that article, without reading the part where it says you can only do that in cases where "the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional,"

This is not the case for the vast number of viruses and it is certainly not the case for Covid 19. See, the thing is deaths can get reported as soon as someone dies. But recoveries don't report until someone actually finishes recovering which TAKES LONGER. The 20% number they showed there was just a demonstration of what the CFR WOULD be IF that method was being used on this outbreak, right after they explained why it isn't valid to use it. 20% CFR isn't even in the ballpark of any professional CFR calculation of Covid 19.

FFS, HOSPITALIZATION rates aren't even 20% for this virus in most places and those numbers are already inflated by the lack of testing so mostly only severe enough cases to be obviously symptomatic and require testing are reported right now. So any non-fucktard should be able to exercise basic common sense and understand that a 20% fatality rate claim is fucking stupid.

Presuming a recovery, does anyone know at what stage a person stops being contagious?


Don

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gcomeau wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:As usual, you went full fucktard.

Says the guy who then proceeded to post a link to an article that said his death rate calculations were wrong.

Try reading your link again. It says you can NOT calculate death rate by just looking at fatalities vs recoveries until the epedemic is OVER.

As in, when the lagging indicator of recoveries have caught up with fatalities. It also says you can attempt now to imperfectly estimate what actual fatalities vs recoveries will be by looking at numbers of deaths and recovered but only if you provide a time offset correction to the data to account for the lag in recovery data relative to fatality data.

Which you weren't doing when you came up with your 20% number. You were just trying to use the CFR = deaths/(deaths + recovered) formula you saw in that article, without reading the part where it says you can only do that in cases where "the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional,"

This is not the case for the vast number of viruses and it is certainly not the case for Covid 19. See, the thing is deaths can get reported as soon as someone dies. But recoveries don't report until someone actually finishes recovering which TAKES LONGER. The 20% number they showed there was just a demonstration of what the CFR WOULD be IF that method was being used on this outbreak, right after they explained why it isn't valid to use it. 20% CFR isn't even in the ballpark of any professional CFR calculation of Covid 19.

FFS, HOSPITALIZATION rates aren't even 20% for this virus in most places and those numbers are already inflated by the lack of testing so mostly only severe enough cases to be obviously symptomatic and require testing are reported right now. So any non-fucktard should be able to exercise basic common sense and understand that a 20% fatality rate claim is fucking stupid.

Wrong again. I did read that article plus a LOT more. The fatality rate is in part a function of how effective local medical care is and how healthy the population was prior to the epidemic. When you look at the data for countries that are most distressed, the fatality rate is far higher. I intentionally cite the raw death to recovery rates because I believe that they are an accurate forecast of future death to recovery ratios when everyone's hospitals are overwhelmed.

Of course Obama waited until 1,000 Americans had been killed by the Swine Flu before declaring an emergency.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... eflu/16606


Obama never closed the border.

In Obama's defense, I would point out that the Swine Flu was at least two orders of magnitude less lethal than the Coronavirus so both the need for action was less obvious and the consequences of inaction were less severe.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Wrong again. I did read that article plus a LOT more. The fatality rate is in part a function of how effective local medical care is and how healthy the population was prior to the epidemic. When you look at the data for countries that are most distressed, the fatality rate is far higher. I intentionally cite the raw death to recovery rates because I believe that they are an accurate forecast of future death to recovery ratios when everyone's hospitals are overwhelmed.

The problem with that is that we don't know the true recovery rates related to COVID-19.

Joat42 wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:Wrong again. I did read that article plus a LOT more. The fatality rate is in part a function of how effective local medical care is and how healthy the population was prior to the epidemic. When you look at the data for countries that are most distressed, the fatality rate is far higher. I intentionally cite the raw death to recovery rates because I believe that they are an accurate forecast of future death to recovery ratios when everyone's hospitals are overwhelmed.

The problem with that is that we don't know the true recovery rates related to COVID-19.

Agreed to a point. There is an enormous amount that we do not know. I would not have become concerned if China had not locked down 70 million people. We certainly do not have an accurate tally of infections. It is also likely that many deaths were not attributed to Coronavirus.

Lol, the Trump administration ordered 3M to stop selling the N95 resperators to the only country that provides the raw material to make the masks.


3M told them no. Because following that order would work wonders.

n7axw wrote:Presuming a recovery, does anyone know at what stage a person stops being contagious?


Don

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My sister says we are flying blind.

It is also not known how quickly someone who has recovered can be reinfected. IOW, the immune window is quite small.

Venezuela has taken an unusual step regarding Coronavirus.

One of their Naval Vessels (the Patrol Boat Naiguata) tried to capture an Arctic Cruise Ship (RCGS Resolute) in international waters and when the captain refused to follow the Naiguata into port (where the Resolute would have been seized), the Naiguata opened fire (rifles/handguns) and tried to direct it via ramming.
Unfortunately for the Naiguata, the Resolute had a reinforced hull, so it was the Naiguata who took on water and eventually sunk.

The USA is currently re-deploying its own vessels around Venezuela to prevent a repetition, but the Greatest Communist Paradise On The Planet seems to be heading into becoming a Pirate State.
Its neighbors are probably starting to arm up in case Venezuela tries to raid them for resources...

-Edited for spelling

Michael Everett wrote:Venezuela has taken an unusual step regarding Coronavirus.

One of their Naval Vessels (the Patrol Boat Naiguata) tried to capture an Arctic Cruise Ship (RCGS Resolute) in international waters and when the captain refused to follow the Naiguata into port (where the Resolute would have been seized), the Naiguata opened fire (rifles/handguns) and tried to direct it via ramming.
Unfortunately for the Naiguata, the Resolute had a reinforced hull, so it was the Naiguata who took on water and eventually sunk.

The USA is currently re-deploying its own vessels around Venezuela to prevent a repetition, but the Greatest Communist Paradise On The Planet seems to be heading into becoming a Pirate State.
Its neighbors are probably starting to arm up in case Venezuela tries to raid them for resources...

-Edited for spelling

Is there any context for this? Any reason given to Resolute or any prior difficulty of this nature? No problem with your characterization here. Venezuela does seem hell bent on repeating history's wrong lessons. But still, this does seem odd.

Don

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