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Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?

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Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:29 am

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I keep perusing the data. The epidemic remains small but it is still in the exponential growth phase with no evidence that we have reached the inflection point. It is alarming that North Korea officially reports zero cases.

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public ... v-model-2/
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Annachie   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:41 am

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It is, but as a very insular country North Korea might not have been exposed.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Michael Everett   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:06 am

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North Korea would report a zero-infected level even if 90% of its population were keeling over.
Seriously, North Korea is insistent that it is the perfect country with perfect people, all serving the perfect leader. Anything that goes against that script is to be ignored or destroyed.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Dilandu   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:36 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:I keep perusing the data. The epidemic remains small but it is still in the exponential growth phase with no evidence that we have reached the inflection point.


Oh please! There is no "exponential" growth! Stop being an old lady, who have no better things to do than spread apocalyptic rumors!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

In fact, the number of infected decreased. It could, of course, still go up - if, for example, pandemic hit India or some other Asian country with high population density and inept government - but China obviously took it under control. The number of peoples cured is 4,4 times greater than the number of dead, and the absolute majority of cases are mild one.


TFLYTSNBN wrote: It is alarming that North Korea officially reports zero cases.


What exactly so alarming here? They are quite isolationist country with strict border control and very limited traffic. They may just put everyone who are entering the country into quarantine (the number is actually not enormous), and thus prevent the possibility of spread from the very beginning.
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by TFLYTSNBN   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:19 am

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Dilandu wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:I keep perusing the data. The epidemic remains small but it is still in the exponential growth phase with no evidence that we have reached the inflection point.


Oh please! There is no "exponential" growth! Stop being an old lady, who have no better things to do than spread apocalyptic rumors!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

In fact, the number of infected decreased. It could, of course, still go up - if, for example, pandemic hit India or some other Asian country with high population density and inept government - but China obviously took it under control. The number of peoples cured is 4,4 times greater than the number of dead, and the absolute majority of cases are mild one.


TFLYTSNBN wrote: It is alarming that North Korea officially reports zero cases.


What exactly so alarming here? They are quite isolationist country with strict border control and very limited traffic. They may just put everyone who are entering the country into quarantine (the number is actually not enormous), and thus prevent the possibility of spread from the very beginning.


Thanks for the link to an excellent site.

This site obviously understands the statistics but presumes that single day trends are indicative of a long term trend. We are still in the exponential growth phase. Is this because there are fewer infections or fewer "confirmed cases" because fewer people are being treated at hospitals or they have a shortage of test kits?

Your site is quite correct in estimating lethality by comparing the number of deceased patients to the number recovered patients. This isn't a plague that will wipe out humanity. However; it is capable of killing enough people to cause a societal collapse or political turmoil. Hong Kong is sealing itself off from mainland China. More companies are relocating their supply chains out of China. China's economy is taking a huge hit.

You are correct about North Korea being a very insular country. However; there are news reports that they have had cases. It is plausible that the government is concealing the truth. Most people in NK are chronically malnourished with compromised immune systems. The health care system is a joke except for The elites who do not care about​ the little folk. If the Coronavirus gets loose in NK, the transmission rate and lethality rate will both be a lot higher than in China. Not only could North Korea get ravaged,refugess could become a vector to reinfect China, South Korea and Russia far East. I'm uncertain of your population density. However; given how the Russians brought diseases to Alaska that nearly exterminated the Inuit, it could be very bad.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Dilandu   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:26 am

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TFLYTSNBN wrote:

This site obviously understands the statistics but presumes that single day trends are indicative of a long term trend. We are still in the exponential growth phase. Is this because there are fewer infections or fewer "confirmed cases" because fewer people are being treated at hospitals or they have a shortage of test kits?


It is because quarantine measures and public awareness greatly limited virus potential to infect others. To put it simply, peoples are on guard now, and potentially infected are isolated before they could infect someone else.

However; it is capable of killing enough people to cause a societal collapse or political turmoil. Hong Kong is sealing itself off from mainland China. More companies are relocating their supply chains out of China. China's economy is taking a huge hit.


Essentially it is the effect of panic, not the virus itself. It's just China government made a really bad mistake trying to cover up the previous pandemic in 2003. Now they apparently learned well, and they are acting much more rationally, but thing is, that since they are known to trying to cover before, everyone is suspicious "aren't they trying to do it again?"

Personally, I think they are quite honest now.

You are correct about North Korea being a very insular country. However; there are news reports that they have had cases.


From where? Source OBS, I took it (translation from Russian: OBS - Odna Babka Skazala, i.e. One Old Lady Rumored)

Most people in NK are chronically malnourished with compromised immune systems. The health care system is a joke except for The elites who do not care about​ the little folk. If the Coronavirus gets loose in NK, the transmission rate and lethality rate will both be a lot higher than in China. Not only could North Korea get ravaged,refugess could become a vector to reinfect China, South Korea and Russia far East. I'm uncertain of your population density. However; given how the Russians brought diseases to Alaska that nearly exterminated the Inuit, it could be very bad.


Seriously, you seems to be desperate for some Hollywood-esque virus outbreak. Stop reading John Ringo, will ya? This guy is extremely prone to making fuss out of nothing.
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:22 pm

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Michael Everett wrote:North Korea would report a zero-infected level even if 90% of its population were keeling over.
Seriously, North Korea is insistent that it is the perfect country with perfect people, all serving the perfect leader. Anything that goes against that script is to be ignored or destroyed.


Sound like anyone else we know?
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by Dilandu   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:11 pm

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gcomeau wrote:
Sound like anyone else we know?


Yeah, you.
------------------------------

Oh well, if shortening the front is what the Germans crave,
Let's shorten it to very end - the length of Fuhrer's grave.

(Red Army lyrics from 1945)
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:18 pm

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Dilandu wrote:
TFLYTSNBN wrote:

This site obviously understands the statistics but presumes that single day trends are indicative of a long term trend. We are still in the exponential growth phase. Is this because there are fewer infections or fewer "confirmed cases" because fewer people are being treated at hospitals or they have a shortage of test kits?


It is because quarantine measures and public awareness greatly limited virus potential to infect others. To put it simply, peoples are on guard now, and potentially infected are isolated before they could infect someone else


Speaking from Taiwan... people are ridiculously on guard.

I've had my temperature taken by IR thermometers and thermal cameras a dozen times this week coming and going from the TSMC campus and the hotel.
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Re: Time to read THE LAST CENTURION?
Post by gcomeau   » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:28 pm

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Dilandu wrote:
gcomeau wrote:
Sound like anyone else we know?


Yeah, you.


Funny.

If you can find a single example of me saying anything I did or was involved in was PERFECT!... Everything I do I'm the best at, better than anyone else in the world... Everything I do sets a new record... post it.

I'll wait. But we both know who this really describes. Why don't we go to smr's favorite most authoritative information source just for fun...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GqJna9hpTE
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