Ukrainian Airliner Crash

The timing was immensely interesting. Iran should have grounded civilian flights prior to the missile launch and afterwards in case of US retaliaten. There are speculationns that the aircraft was shot down with alleged photos of alleged components of Russian built SAM missile.

Now even Little Justin acknowledges that the plane was probably shot down..

https://youtu.be/lLk98RkOvKY

I do not believe that even Iranian missile crews would just accidentally launch a missile.

"Oops!"

The only question is why.

The Iranians obviously expected that President Trump was going to retaliate to the missile attack by giving Iran a severe ass kicking.

Did the missile crew mistake a Boeing 737 for a Boeing B-52?

Did the missile crew shoot down a passenger plane intentionally at or about the time that an Aamerican attack was expected so that Itan could blame President Trump?

There is no shortage of morons who would eagerly support blaming Trump.

If it was shot down it was no accident.
Regular flight on a regular flight path, and somewhere between 100 and 200 flights a day?

Nope.


So, if it was shot down, who did it.

Iran? Unlikely. It serves no purpose.

USA? Unlikely. Would serve a purpose for domestic consumption, but they don't need such an event as they had plenty to work with already.

Russia? Well they have history. But it's a pot that is stiring itself quite nicely already, from their point of view.

I really only see two potential winners from it. Well three if you count the USA who didn't need it.

Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Annachie wrote:If it was shot down it was no accident.
Regular flight on a regular flight path, and somewhere between 100 and 200 flights a day?

Nope.

From what I gather (correct me if I'm wrong), the flight had been delayed 1 hour.

Annachie wrote:If it was shot down it was no accident.
Regular flight on a regular flight path, and somewhere between 100 and 200 flights a day?

Nope.


So, if it was shot down, who did it.

Iran? Unlikely. It serves no purpose.

USA? Unlikely. Would serve a purpose for domestic consumption, but they don't need such an event as they had plenty to work with already.

Russia? Well they have history. But it's a pot that is stiring itself quite nicely already, from their point of view.

I really only see two potential winners from it. Well three if you count the USA who didn't need it.

Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Oh Yes! Let us blame those evil Jews!! Their Sky God told them exactly when the Iranians would launch the missile attack so that they could have a specially modified F-35 armed with a Russian Surface to Air missile on site almost immediately afterward to shoot down an airliner flying out of Tehran.

You are ignoring the obvious facts.

Iran had just launched a missile strike against air bases used by the US in Iraq. Iran reasonably expected the US to counterattack. I can actually accept the premise that the Iranians were stupid enough to continue civilian flights. I can also accept the probability that the Iranian air defense crews were on high alert and scared shitless because standard US doctrine is to destroy air defenses to gain air superiority.

However; the truly salient fact is that the US had an extreme vested interest in ensuring that no airliners would get shot down in Iranian airspace because the US would invariably be blamed for it. This is especially true if President Trump had counter attacked. Iran on the other hand does have an extreme vested interest in having an airliner shot down in its airspace contemporaneously with an expected counterattack that had been provoked by an Iranian missile strike.


Just as an aside, thoughs Canadian sex tourists should be wary.

https://www.meforum.org/5000/strategic- ... s-iran-std

I personally find an accidental shootdown plausible. It happened right after the ballistic missile bombardment and everyone was probably on a knife edge looking for possible retaliatory strikes. It only takes one panicky poorly trained missile battery crew one quick mistake and it's all over.

And TFLY, would you just stfu with the sex tourist idiocy? Seriously. Just once, could you pretend like you're capable of exhibiting the maturity of the average 15 year old?

Annachie wrote:If it was shot down it was no accident.
Regular flight on a regular flight path, and somewhere between 100 and 200 flights a day?

Nope.


So, if it was shot down, who did it.

Iran? Unlikely. It serves no purpose.

USA? Unlikely. Would serve a purpose for domestic consumption, but they don't need such an event as they had plenty to work with already.

Russia? Well they have history. But it's a pot that is stiring itself quite nicely already, from their point of view.

I really only see two potential winners from it. Well three if you count the USA who didn't need it.

Israel or Saudi Arabia.

Why would they do that? How would they do that, for that matter, especially given the short warning?

In any event, current indications seem to point to an accidental Iranian shootdown.

Annachie wrote:
Iran? Unlikely. It serves no purpose.

Probably Iran, by accident. Itanian air defense system are rather a mix of old American, old Soviet, relatively modern French, Russian and their own system, neither of them were actually designed to operate with other ones. The mutual interference is unavoidable due to largely incompatible designs.

Some trigger-happy Iranian SAM operator probably mistook a radar glitch for US stealth craft incoming (after all, Iran just launched a missile salvo against US bases; they have all reasons to fear the retaliation) and fired SAM's on it. Since it was just a glitch, missiles locked on a jet instead.

Incident.

TFLYTSNBN wrote:The timing was immensely interesting. Iran should have grounded civilian flights prior to the missile launch and afterwards in case of US retaliaten. There are speculationns that the aircraft was shot down with alleged photos of alleged components of Russian built SAM missile.

Iran have "Tor-M1" systems around Tehran, so they would be the logical suspects.

I do not believe that even Iranian missile crews would just accidentally launch a missile.

In nervous situation immediately after strike against US, fully expecting the possible retaliation? Easily.

Did the missile crew mistake a Boeing 737 for a Boeing B-52?

More probably they mistook some radar glitch signal (scattering the beam from other type radar, for example) as a incoming stealth & fired against that phantom. And since glitch then disappeared, missiles probably locked on jet liner before anyone managed to do anything about that.

...and Iran has decided to bulldoze the crash area, thus removing a large portion of potential evidence.
If it was not Iran to blame, the best thing they could have done would have have been to go along with the investigation in the knowledge that it would have cleared them of blame. Iran's attempt to remove/destroy the evidence is a clear indication that it was Iran that shot down the plane, probably because it had a nervous and twitchy person at the controls of one of the missile launchers deployed around their capital, a person who misinterpreted a radar return and hit the launch button.

Dammit, Iran, haven't you ever heard of a Revealing Cover-up? You're doing the equivalent of screaming "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain"...

Dilandu wrote:

TFLYTSNBN wrote:The timing was immensely interesting. Iran should have grounded civilian flights prior to the missile launch and afterwards in case of US retaliaten. There are speculationns that the aircraft was shot down with alleged photos of alleged components of Russian built SAM missile.

Iran have "Tor-M1" systems around Tehran, so they would be the logical suspects.

I do not believe that even Iranian missile crews would just accidentally launch a missile.

In nervous situation immediately after strike against US, fully expecting the possible retaliation? Easily.

Did the missile crew mistake a Boeing 737 for a Boeing B-52?

More probably they mistook some radar glitch signal (scattering the beam from other type radar, for example) as a incoming stealth & fired against that phantom. And since glitch then disappeared, missiles probably locked on jet liner before anyone managed to do anything about that.

I feel 99% certain that the airliner was shot down by an Iranian SAM. Probably the Russian built TOR.

I feel 90% certain that Iran shot the airliner down accidentally. When I suggest that an Iranian would not just launch accidentally, I meant not launch because the accidentally pushed the wrong button. The accidental shoot down was no doubt the result of misidentifying the airliner as something hostile. Keep in mind that interpreting weapons radar is as much art as science. There are issues with spurious returns from beam sidelobes and other issues.

I will surprise the Hell by not dismissing the possibility that the US had an F-22 or drone prowling around for reconisance or early warning. A faint return off such an intruder might provoke launch of missiles that then lock onto the airliner.

I feel that there is a small probability that Iran shot the airliner down intentionally in anticipation of a US attack and intention to blame it on America. If so, Trump just sodomized Iran by doing nothing.